How Should The Mets Split Outfield Playing Time When Beltran Returns?

by Sam Page on Jun 24, 2010 9:34 AM EDT

With Carlos Beltran's return imminent, the Mets have a good problem -- Angel Pagan. According to Fangraphs WAR, Pagan is the second most valuable player on the Mets, his 2.5 WAR just 3 runs less than David Wright. Given Pagan's success and the nature of Beltran's injuries, the best option for the Mets might be to leave Angel in center and relegate Beltran to rightfield. The Mets are insistent, however, that Beltran will return to centerfield, something I won't mind, and that Pagan will become a backup, something I definitely mind.

In a straight choice between either Jeff Francoeur or Angel Pagan playing 100% of the remaining innings in RF, I would of course choose Pagan. Angel fields better, he hits better, he runs the bases better, and he plays to Citi Field's strengths better. Francoeur throws harder. Angel has better hair. There's no comparison.

Francoeur should at least play against lefties, though, right? Francoeur has a career .832 OPS against lefties as a RHB. Pagan, a switch-hitter, has managed just a meager .697 OPS vs. left-handers.

We can't just accept these numbers at face value, however. For the reason a player with a platoon split of .600 OPSvR/.900 OPSvL isn't as favorable a matchup against a given lefty than a player with a platoon split of .800/.900, Pagan, the superior hitter to Francoeur for his career, can't actually be said to be 135 points of OPS worse than Francoeur against lefties.

For simplicity's sake, we'll just assume .697 OPS is Pagan's true talent against lefties. While the sample size isn't ideal, switch-hitters do display the most variation in their platoon splits. For Francoeur, we'll regress him against 2200 PA of a league average platoon ratio, as recommended by The Book and outlined by devil_fingers.

Francoeur's career platoon split is .349 wOBA vL -.305 wOBA vR/ .317 career wOBA =13.9%. I'm going to use the same league average split Matt used in his article, 6.1%. So regressed over 2200 PA...

(.1388*912+.0611*2200)/(912+2200)=8.4%

Adjusting for our new estimation of Francoeur's true talent we get an 8.4% split compared to 13.8%. Also as Matt did, I'm going to split the percentage based on his career % of PA against lefties (~28%). 8.4%*72%=+6% wOBA vs. lefthanded pitching. Finally, we find Francoeur's estimated true talent against lefties is .336 wOBA, essentially average.

We also have to account for defense. Pagan's a carrer +7 UZR/150 in CF with adequate sample size, so I'll estimate about +15 RS/150 as a RF. Weighting Francoeur's most recent seasons more than his great defensive years with the Braves, I'd say he's a neutral RF.

Over roughly 100 remaining PA remaining versus lefty pitching:

Games	26	26
PA	100	100
Fielding Innings	230	230
wOBA	0.336	0.304
DRS/150	0	15
Batting Runs	0.6	-2.6
Fielding Runs	0	2.6
WAR	0.06	0

The difference comes out to be completely negligible. Over the course of a few seasons there might be a slight advantage in platooning them, but even then, Pagan's defense and offensive improvements could make up the difference pretty easily. Since Pagan is hitting so well recently and Beltran's defense may be compromised by his knee problems, I would personally assume Pagan starts every game in rightfield. Beltran will likely need to be rested though, which should be coordinated against lefties, so Francoeur can start, shifting Pagan back to center.

All things considered, here are the optimal alignments:

vs. RHP

100%--Bay-Beltran-Pagan

vs. LHP

75%--Bay-Beltran-Pagan
25%--Bay-Pagan-Francoeur

Contrary to the Mets' rumored plan to leave Pagan with the least playing time of the four outfielders going forward, Pagan should probably be the last to see the bench, before Bay even. I fear the Mets have fallen into the trap of thinking most good fourth outfielders are athletic and speedy; Angel Pagan is athletic and speedy. Most good rightfielders hit for power and have strong arms; Francoeur hits for power and has a strong arm. These vague notions, however, ignore the realities of each player. Francoeur's a nice, average player, but he's a fourth outfielder on this team.

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CONTRACT

Playing time for the 4 OF’s will not be an easy decision. Beltran will need time off here & there until he is back to full strength. Francouer’s present contract runs out at the end of this season & he is not as bad as some critics point out but ranks 4th among the Mets OF’s (maybe 5th after Carter?). Is a trade possible? Does any team out there need Francouer?

by MDMETSFAN on Jun 24, 2010 7:24 AM EDT reply actions

"Does any team out there need Francouer?"

Buffalo, maybe?

by JoshNY on Jun 24, 2010 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions

we dont need more useless players blocking real prospects there, thanks

we already have jakobs

by astromets on Jun 24, 2010 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions

If there is anyone more worthless than Frenchy, it's Jacobs.

by BrockRocks on Jun 24, 2010 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Perfect!

by Jack Str on Jun 25, 2010 2:09 AM EDT up reply actions

Pagan has to stay in the line up

I would have him in right field for now with Beltran playing cf, just rotate the three, Francouer is a player you can use to come off the bench

by Jermal on Jun 24, 2010 7:28 AM EDT reply actions

Absolutely

I don’t see how you can sit Angel given how he has swung the bat. The reason for the Mets success recently has been the 1-2 punch of Reyes and Pagan at the top of the lineup. Both of them have been getting on and setting the table for Wright and Ike to knock them in. If we go back to the Reyes- whoever is playing second setup, we are losing baserunners for power in keeping Frenchy in:

2010 Year When Batting Second

Pagan .302 .363 .806 .324 .385 .863
Tejada .255 .314 .633 N/A
Castillo .241 .347 .624 .237 .348 .622
Cora .238 .307 .594 .200 .279 .529

Part of what has made us successful thus far is jumping on teams early.

Here are some more comparisons of games played batting second:

GP AB R H 2B 3B HR TB RBI BB
Pagan 17 71 11 23 7 2 0 34 12 7
Castillo 37 135 13 32 1 2 0 37 13 24
Cora 17 60 3 12 3 0 0 15 10 6

Pagan has similar numbers in less than HALF the games. We have been winning because of baserunning and moving runners over for our RBI guys to drive them in, we CAN NOT sacrifice baserunning for power. The split of who plays when I think is fantastic and that way we assure ourselves of the baserunners we need to continue winning games.

In trying to scramble out of a hole, it sometimes digs it deeper. ~Wellington Mara
I always root for the defense. ~Wellington Mara

by DavidE on Jun 24, 2010 7:35 AM EDT reply actions

Makes sense

to play Pagan in rf and then have him spell Beltran in cf when there is a lefty pitching with Francouer playing rf on those days.

I’m not sure I agree with regressing everything to mean or meaninglessness. This suggests that Francouer’s true talent level isn’t as bad against righties as he has demonstrated very consistently, and Pagan is worse. I understand the idea, but I am not sure why we should privilege a player’s awful performance against same-sided pitchers to use in establishing a baseline for regressing his platoon differential.

Frenchy hits pretty well against lefties and awfully against righties. Pagan hits very well against righties and poorly against lefties. No always. he was ok last year. But it is getting to be enough at bats for one to get the idea it is not his forte. There are more righty pitchers than lefties. Part of pagan’s overall batting advantage is simply from the fact that he gets to face opposite handed pitchers more often than Frenchy does.

Indeed, Frenchy’s career wRC+ against lefties is 116 and Pagan’s against righties is 113. Is Frenchy’s unnaturally large platoon split because he isn’t really that good against lefties, or because he isn’t that bad against righties? well, he has more than twice as many PA’s against righties. So by regressing we are taking the disadvantage he already faces in comparing him to Pagan-he sucks against the type of pitcher which represents the majority of pitchers, whereas Pagan is better against them-and discounting the area where he IS better for that very reason.

I prefer to think of it as Frenchy has demonstrated a skill in 900 career PA that Pagan hasn’t in 300+. He has more PA’s against lefties than Pagan has against lefties and righties in his career. Maybe they are a little closer than the stark numbers suggest, but sometimes a player may just have a large split. If their platoon splits were reversed, and frenchy could hit righties and Pagan lefties, the predominance of righties would make Francouer seem like the overall better hitter. Their splits are almost mirror images: Pagan has a .351 wOBA vs. lefties and .304 versus righties. Frenchy .349 against lefties (although his wRC+ against lefties is higher than Pagan against righties) and .305 versus righties. Not sure I would start making adjustments tha would suggest Frenchy’s 900+PA against lefties is less reliable than Pagan’s 700+ PA against righties, when that split has continued this year and in fact widened.

I also don’t take even a 3 year run of slightly sub zero uzr’s as meaning much. I look at his career line. Mike Cameron, for example, had a 3 year negative run, then bounced back and was great again. It’s random enough that I just prefer career numbers. Stil doesn’t make him Pagan. I am also confused as to why fangraphs says Frenchy’s to date UZR is +1 in 2010, but his per 150 is -.9.

As no doubt demonstrated, I am not very familiar with probabilty or the higher maffs on all this, but I think Francouer should continue to start against lefties. And Beltran is pretty good against both rh and lh. So depending on how much rest he needs, I wouldn’t suggest he needs to sit against all lefties.

I guess if there were 100 games left, so 300 starts to divvy up, maybe Bay and Pagan should start 95, Beltran 80, and Frenchy 30. Maybe toss in a couple Feliciano or Tatis, some late season Fernando.

by wobatus on Jun 24, 2010 8:37 AM EDT reply actions

Re: UZR vs. UZR/150

I’m pretty sure it has to do with extrapolating the UZR components over the full 150 games. He’s +2.6 with his arm but -1.5 for range. The range component of UZR is much more important, simply because of opportunities. Range is evaluated anytime a ball is hit out there, but the arm component only comes in to play when the situation arises. I won’t attempt the exact maths, but basically it wouldn’t make as much sense to project the arm rating over 150 vs the range rating over 150.

by James Kannengieser on Jun 24, 2010 9:27 AM EDT up reply actions

Also

That Reyes/Pagan picture is outstanding.

by James Kannengieser on Jun 24, 2010 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions

Thank you

for clarifying that.

by wobatus on Jun 24, 2010 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Players defense gets worse basically from the day they start playing

So taking the career averages doesn’t really work. I don’t think Frenchy is the same fielder he was in his rookie year.
Most fans, like on WFAN, don’t even consider benching Frenchy. It’s very alarming.

by EtSuKe on Jun 24, 2010 3:17 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Here is why a lefty/righty platoon is the answer:

The difference between having Pagan or Frenchy against lefties is neglible (and I question the 15 defensive runs estimate, how many rightfielders put up that kind of number?). However, having four outfielders who are getting regular (or in Frenchy’s case, semi-regular) playing time manages to keep everyone in a position to produce, whether as a pinch hitter or in case of a short injury. Plus, although I don’t want to overstate it, by all accounts Frenchy is a great clubhouse guy. It is harder to have much of an impact if you are always riding the pine. Regular starts against lefties can keep him feeling important and keep the team clicking. It also gives you a chance to identify a potential hot streak.

by goquakers on Jun 24, 2010 9:36 AM EDT reply actions

I'll respond to this in the hope it does not result in another 500+ comment thread

If Frenchy is the ultimate clubhouse and team player you all think he is, then shouldn’t he be willing to limit his playing time for the good of the team in favor of a clearly superior player and still be able to use his personal skills to rally and motivate the troops. If he is really the insipiration you say he is, he can lead from the bench and his sacrificing playing time without complaint would even endear hm to his teamates. And when he is hot, he can play more as you say. But he will go cold again and his cold streaks are ice cold. To put him in over Pagan during those frigid times would hardly inspire anyone other than fans of teams other than the Mets.

by Endys Game on Jun 24, 2010 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions

Again, hoping this thread doesn't blow up:

Considering what the Mets COULD do, having Francoeur start the majority of games against lefties wouldn’t be the end of the world. No, it wouldn’t be optimal, but it would just be a relief for Pagan to not be the 4th OF. I would say that when Beltran gets back, he’s gonna need a day off every week. So once a week, Frenchy and Pagan will play. And if Frenchy and Pagan split starts against lefties, I’ll at least be satisfied, if not thrilled.

John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.

by squid92 on Jun 24, 2010 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions

I agree but

I don’t see the Mets doing this unless Frenchy is cold by the time Beltran gets back. Since the Mets seem to agree with Frenchy acolytes that his defense is at least as strong as Pagan’s, it comes down to their offense and Jerry is just too in love with Francoeur’s supposed power bat and hustle. My guess is that it winds up being a 60-40 split with Frenchy getting the 60. I only hope that when the inevitable cold streak hits, that Jerry quickly pulls the plug on him.

I also want to add that Frenchy is actually having a better year than I thought he would by far and I don’t mean to suggest he is not a contributor to this team’s success. That 3 run home run he hit against the Padres might have been the biggest hit of the year to date. But Pagan has simply been one of the most valuable Mets if not the most valuable this year.

by Endys Game on Jun 24, 2010 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions

Jerry is also in love with Pagan as his number 2 hitter

by SuperT on Jun 24, 2010 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions

is he?

he should be but remember Castilo batted 2nd for most of the year until he got hurt.

by Endys Game on Jun 24, 2010 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions

I should say recently in love

I’ve read somewhere just lately him saying that he really likes Pagan in there as his #2.

by SuperT on Jun 24, 2010 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions

i listened to him say that on the 'managerial report'

before tuesday’s game. eddie c was trying to coax him into saying pagan will be the 4th outfielder when Beltran gets back but Jerry said he needs to be in there and he really likes him in that 2 spot.

by astromets on Jun 24, 2010 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions

not to pick

but i think you mean 3-run homer against the marlins on a sunday game Taka started

by astromets on Jun 24, 2010 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions

you are correct

by Endys Game on Jun 24, 2010 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions

GO F(&@#(#&K yourselves!!!!

No, but, actually, Mr. Page makes some good arguments. I tend toward Mr. (?) Wobatus’ take, however. For example, I’m not sure I trust the analysis of the adjustment of CF to RF, which seemed arbitrary, and the tendentious assessment of Frenchy as an “average” RF. Also, I think we need to be careful simply saying that Pagan’s career numbers have normalized, etc. We’re talking about a very scattered body of work. Recall that Francoeur’s OPS has gone down since his first 600 PAs.

That said, it’s probably enough of a wash that I think a straight righty/lefty platoon would make the most sense. Given (1) that you see more right-handers, and (2) that Beltran may need lots of rest, I think you’ll see Pagan out there 75% of the time, anyway.

The larger problem is that “The Book” is sort of taken as . . . well, “The Book.”

by tmu on Jun 24, 2010 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions

Frenchy's ops hasn't actually gone that much down since his first 600 ABs

after his first 658 PA’s his ops was .761, .304 OBP and .457 slugging.

I want Jerry Manuel fired now, not three years from now. That is my stance.- John Peterson

by Gina on Jun 24, 2010 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions

Mr.

last I checked.

by wobatus on Jun 24, 2010 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions

its been said before

but if starting is essential to ‘clubhouse presence’ then why is the case for Cora, a bench player, his clubhouse presence

by astromets on Jun 24, 2010 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs

Bingo

by Endys Game on Jun 24, 2010 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Ding ding ding

We have a winner!

If there's ever a riot at Citi Field and Oliver Perez was the starter, I started the riot.

by meigs1414 on Jun 24, 2010 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Beltran, Bay, Pagan

and then trade beltran once he proves to the baseball world he’s healthy.

"I only wanted a few things out of life -- a wife, children, to play baseball and to hunt deer." - Turk Wendell

by Rey-O on Jun 24, 2010 11:34 AM EDT reply actions

No one is going to take on that much salary

There is no hope.... there is no future....there is only GRISSIONZ

The 2010 Mets- Hey, we may suck, but what did you expect?

by Syler on Jun 24, 2010 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions

Rec'd

logic is infallible.

One day, this team is going to kill me.

by fxcarden on Jun 24, 2010 12:01 PM EDT reply actions

nobody expected Pagan could perform as a starter for a whole year

who is to say he can’t become really good against lefties. When we are sure Beltran will be back, try and find a taker for Frenchy while he still has value as a young OF putting it together. Take the dent-ure out of Jerry’s hands

by astromets on Jun 24, 2010 12:43 PM EDT reply actions

again trading Frenchy is not a viable option

you will get littile or no value for him.

by Endys Game on Jun 24, 2010 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions

i dont see why we couldn't get a useful bullpen arm from like the royals

probably the royals are a team that would want him. he is young, showing he can be useful, ummm, there is that golden arm, and he is young. i feel someone would give us something, even a B+ prospect, for him and that is all I want – him gone and positive value in his place. I don’t see why we could get nothing for him

by astromets on Jun 24, 2010 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions

You want him gone. But unless your name is Omar, Jerry, or Jeff(Wilpon) I wouldn't hold my breath on that happening.

I’d love to get ANYTHING for Frenchy. I’d also love to win the Mega-Millions lottery too but we can’t always get what we want, now can we?

by BrockRocks on Jun 24, 2010 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm not sure about this

If we can see that he has some value as a 4th OF/lefty-hitting half of a platoon, other teams can see that, too, and some of them might perfectly justifiably want him as a bench or part-time player for a stretch run. If the Mets pick up some of his remaining salary he should be worth a B-level prospect or a half-decent bullpen arm or something of the sort. I really think shopping Frenchy should be the organization’s top trade-deadline priority at this point.

by anonymous on Jun 24, 2010 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions

well just getting bullpen help in general

i am not sure ramon ortiz will make the difference, plus why did he start last night?

by astromets on Jun 24, 2010 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions

I really think shopping Frenchy should be the organization’s top trade-deadline priority at this point.

Is it? Seriously? With the reports on Cliff Lee going on, I kind of doubt that it’s their “TOP Trade-Deadline priority”, anonymous.

It’s you and astro’s Top Priority which is fine but like I said above : Omar/Jerry/Jeff(Wilpon). Those 3 stooges are the ones who would decide what happens with Frenchy and judging from their past performances, I don’t have much confidence that they would get rid of Frenchy. Knowing Omar, he’d re-sign Frenchy for 3-4 years at 12 mill or some ridiculous amount.

by BrockRocks on Jun 24, 2010 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions

I really have no idea how to respond to this.

Is the only permissible attitude, according to you, pure fatalism and pre-emptive acceptance of incompetent decision-making? Or are you unaware of the is/ought distinction?

by anonymous on Jun 24, 2010 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Here's how I respond to THIS now :

Do you honestly believe that ANYONE would think shopping a worthless player like Frenchy is the most important thing to do right now?

Answer : Hell No! If there is a move to be made, it will either happen through a trade(not involving Frenchy ’cause no team out there is stupid enough to take him without getting an actual GOOD player along with him) or when Beltran returns(where the Platoon Plan will go into effect).

And we have Omar as our GM, anonymous. Why would you surprised at my pure fatalistic attitude or my “pre-emptive acceptance of incompetent decision-making”? Their Track Record Speaks for itself, man!

sheesh.

by BrockRocks on Jun 25, 2010 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions

Do you seriously not get the distinction between predicting and prescribing?

Let me put this as clearly as possible, because it seems not to be registering at all. Yes, I think shopping Frenchy should be the trade-deadline priority for the team; he should have some, albeit limited, trade value, and it wouldn’t hurt to lose him, and the rest of the roster is in decent shape while sizable upgrades are likely to be prohibitively expensive in trade.

No, this doesn’t mean I think it will be Omar’s top priority; I’m not making a descriptive or predictive claim about what is, just discussing what ought to be. I said “should be.” You keep saying “is.”

Do I think anyone would think this? Yes. Me. I think it. What’s your point? Do you have an actual argument to make here? Or are you posting just to spout off? I’m not seeing much effort to engage in an actual discussion rather than just assert your opinions and then cry “sheesh” when people have the temerity to disagree.

by anonymous on Jun 25, 2010 1:41 AM EDT up reply actions

Fatalism wrt Francouer is, sadly, appropriate.

Prorated, his final numbers will be

73 runs,
16 home runs,
87 runs batted in,
263 batting average.

He’s extremely durable, which means his counting stats make him look like a decent player. Short of his falling off a cliff, anyone who thinks this ownership and front office aren’t going to offer him an expensive, multiyear extension hasn’t been paying any attention at all.

by Jack Str on Jun 25, 2010 2:26 AM EDT up reply actions

again, this applies to "is" statements, not "ought" statements

If I had been trying to predict what Omar will do, I’d agree that a dose of fatalism would be appropriate. That has nothing to do with a discussion of what he should do (or, if you prefer, what someone smarter should do in his place).

by anonymous on Jun 25, 2010 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions

Good point

and i think it may be true. He hit them fine last year. Since his body of work against lefties is smaller, i can see him improving against lefties, or maybe his natural split abilities being closer than his stats to date. I think it less likely that Francouer is somehow worse against lefties than his stats show. Given that their splits are mirror images, they are almost identically the same wOBA wise just with Frenchy being the one that can’t hit the righthanders that make up the majority of pitchers, I think a platoon makes sense. But then I’d give pagan some of Beltran’s starts since Beltran may need to be treated like fine china this year.

by wobatus on Jun 24, 2010 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Don't have a problem with the platoon

as long as Pagan can also get one to two starts per week in center to rest Beltran. If they do that, he’ll probably be playing about 5 times a week. Keeps everyone fresh, too. And if someone is lights out hot, you know Jerry will play that guy, because he loves a hot hand. I feel like too much is being made of this “problem”. There’s still 3 weeks before this becomes an issue. And in that time any of these guys could end up hurt, especially Carlos, making the dilemma moot.

by David G on Jun 24, 2010 12:56 PM EDT reply actions

Or Pagan

who is hurt at the moment. Or is there news?

by tmu on Jun 24, 2010 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Supposedly,

he’s day-to-day w/ a muscle spasm.

"I want to win now, not 3 years from now. That's my stance." - Kevin Burkhardt

by Brian. on Jun 24, 2010 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions

thx

Hope it’s not too many days.

by tmu on Jun 24, 2010 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions

I can't believe

you’re suggesting putting your favorite player on the bench.

You don't cheer for the Mets. You drink for the Mets.

by Kevin H on Jun 24, 2010 1:05 PM EDT reply actions

when you're talking the Mets

“makes sense” rarely comes up in the same breath…

I hope Frenchy takes a seat and is only used as a defensive sub/bench player. that way it will give this team much needed power off that bench!

I can see Pagan playing 50% of the time in both RF and CF, until at least Beltran is 100% and give Bay a breather. after all, Beltran isn’t going to slide in the lineup and hit like he used to right away.

"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"

by feslenraster on Jun 24, 2010 1:50 PM EDT reply actions

the .408 SLG doesn't inspire much hope in

“power off that bench”

by astromets on Jun 24, 2010 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Francoeur ZiPS projected SLG: .426

Pagan SLG: .451
Francoeur wOBA: .325
Pagan wOBA: .353
Francoeur: power, RBIZZZ, and WINZz

by EtSuKe on Jun 24, 2010 3:24 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs

how can you project such a hacktastic approach?

by astromets on Jun 24, 2010 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Francoeur is not average.

I am worried that if Pagan only plays against righties he will lose his ability against lefties.

by EtSuKe on Jun 24, 2010 3:06 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

No, not as a hitter

but depending how you measure his defense, he could be.

by Sam Page on Jun 24, 2010 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions

...which equals out to below average.

ergo, not average.

John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.

by squid92 on Jun 24, 2010 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions

His defense would have to be >+7.5

by EtSuKe on Jun 25, 2010 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions

The author has Beltran playing too much

“vs. RHP
100%—Bay-Beltran-Pagan

vs. LHP
75%—Bay-Beltran-Pagan
25%—Bay-Pagan-Francoeur"

If lefties comprise 30% of the starters the Mets face, that has Beltran playing something very much like 92.5% of the Mets’ games. 70% might be pushing it, given the severity of his surgery and the length of his recovery from it.

I would bat Francouer against lefties and sit him against righties because to some degree the numbers warrant it, but also because Pagan is no paragon of durability.

Let’s try (numbers in parens are the percentage of total games, assuming LHP constitutes thirty percent of all starters):

RHP
Bay 100% (70%)
Beltran 70% (49%)
Pagan 100% (70%)
Francouer 30% (21%)

LHP
Bay 100% (30%) Total 100%
Beltran 70% (21%) 70%
Pagan 30% (9%) 79%
Francouer 100% (30%) 51%

So, it looks like, even if you want to limit Francouer’s appearances, unless you ignore Beltran’s and Pagan’s limitations, he’s going to get into about half of the Mets games.

by Jack Str on Jun 25, 2010 2:39 AM EDT reply actions