If lee isn’t resigned, he’ll be worth two first rounders.

Does anybody know a good effigy-maker?

Frenchy for Lee
also, a side note: why are so many people deeming tejada untouchable when we have havens? I mean the guy probably will end up as a utility infielder.

But the wording seems to suggest it’s not just idle speculation:

That’s because the rumors — and they are only rumors, but with some logic — say the Mets might offer…

The Mariners actually use imperical data when building their team.

He’s not a valuable starting Major League Baseball Player™ like the Frenchise.

a) Not true. You’d rather have him walk than have to sign him to a $$$$$$$ contract, probably.

b) He’s going to want to test the market.

(as is the point of psiogen below, who makes a similar point). Although it applies a lot more to Mejia than to Pagan. Omar’s generally reluctant to trade very-high-ceiling prospects. Gomez was the best prospect we gave up for Santana and that was a good and worthwhile trade. He held onto Milledge (probably to our detriment) and F! is basically untouchable at this point. I would be more concerned with someone like Pagan – one of Omar’s weaknesses is that he’s not good at properly valuing non-“stars,” which is reflected both in players traded away (Heath Bell, Jason Vargas, etc.) and players acquired (GMJ, Jacobs, etc.). Combine that with the fact that the Mets have undervalued Pagan from the get-go (platooning him with GMJ) as well as Omar’s penchant for not properly taking injury risk into account (sure, Beltran will be back 100!) and there’s cause for concern. That said, Pagan has been so damn good recently that it’s hard to believe Omar would be this dumb.

unless the Wilpons tell him do it regardless, which seems to be a risk with this team.

I don’t think even the Mets FO would make this move.

Holt’s value is crazy low and Jack Z, being a sabermetric GM, is smart enough to realize Francoeur is not that good.

We’re talking about a guy who gave the Rays ~4 WAR per year from 2005-08 for a combined total of less than $5 mil. Besides (obviously) being an excellent trade return, that’s a pretty fine career, even if he never pitches well again…comparable to a guy like Ron Darling.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/cliff-lees-trade-value/

Because I don’t want to trade Pagan for a rental who most likely isn’t going to stay, especially when we have a mediocre right fielder and uncertainty with Beltran. If we lose Pagan and Beltran’s lost a step (which is well within the realm of possibility), then with the space to cover in Citi Field, it could turn into a horror show.

but since Lee has already made it clear he’s going free agent at the end of this season pretty much unconditionally, it becomes stupid.

Bobby Bonilla was the focal point

Beltran could have very well lost a limpy step or two and we would be screwed in center. Pagan makes tough plays look easier than most.

Pagan’s defense is a large part of what’s making our pitching staff look surprisingly potent. Every time he runs down a ball in the gap, that’s a flat knuckler or a hanging splitter that didn’t kill us.

Pagan is a lock to be worth more over the next 2 1/2 years than Lee will be worth over the next 3 months, and it’s not even a guarantee that the trade would help us this year..

We’re number 1!

I’d be offering Kirk, Thole, and Familia/Holt here. It probably isn’t good enough, but it sounds like a starting point.