Heyman tweets no Grandal
I know some people aren't very trusting in Heyman, take it as you wish.
Well, it seems Harper, Machado, Taillon, Sale (p), Pomeranz and someone else will be gone by the team we come up. Grandal was probably the best choice at that point, as a lot of us here seem to agree since he has the chance of being a great bat at a position where great bats are rare. If it's not gonna be him, I'll take Sale and Cox, but this would be too early for Brentz and Matt Harvey doesn't sound good. College pitcher who's secondary stuff is still regarded as "having potential" and has command problems, doesn't read like a first round guy.
almost 2 years ago
GilbertP
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Keith Law said this about the Mets and Matt Harvey
“Harvey makes some sense to me as a real upside play – I see a lot of risk, but a lot of reward, since he’s got a big fastball, generates groundballs, and has had a good breaking ball in the past (but not this year). A team like the Mets, given their market and payroll, should be shooting for stars in the draft, not average everyday guys, and Harvey has as much star potential as anyone they’re likely to get there, albeit with more risk than guys like Cox or Workman.”
There is no hope.... there is no future....there is only GRISSIONZ
The 2010 Mets- Hey, we may suck, but what did you expect?
i don't see how that makes sense
if anything since we can afford to pay for stars in FA shouldn’t it be the other way around? So we can drop big bucks on the Sabathia’s and Tex’s of the world instead of having to nickel and dime ourselves on the secondary players? Or if nothing else wouldn’t that be an argument for a prep arm/bat?
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
Isn't that what he's saying?
That the Mets should go for Harvey because, in his opinion, Harvey is as likely to become a star as anyone else available at that spot?
Yeah what I'm saying is that we shouldn't take on the risk in the draft
because we don’t have to produce our own stars since we can pay for them. It’s like the Red Sox basically stockpile B to C- guys in their system and sees whats sticks cause they know they can drop the money for a JD Drew or a Lackey if necessary. If anything it makes sense to stockpile those mid-tier so when guys like Gonzo, Lee, or Fielder hit the trading block (and only a few teams can afford to pay their expected asking prices in $$$) we can afford to move prospects without it putting a major hole in our system. Right now our system is so top heavy that its hard to put together packages of 3-4 players without severely hurting the depth.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
Agree, don't get the argument for risk
For me, the safe pick that high is almost always a bat. Usually that’s a college bat, but the best HS bats are nearly as safe. J Sale in this draft would qualify as a pretty safe HS bat.
I don’t see the logic where a team with money should take more risk.
That said, if you are going to take an arm, there’s so much risk with pitching anyway that going for upside is usually the way to go. My argument would be that I think the supposedly “safe” polished mid rotation college arms actually tend to bust at a higher rate than the “riskier” guys with better stuff and problems with command. Pro coaching will correct some of those problems, and that’s where you get your best draft picks on the pitching side.
fwiw, I don't have links right now but I can get them later
I actually think research has been done on this and there’s virtually no difference on the bust rates of prep arms and college arms at this point, or the contributions by WAR.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
Yeah
Reading comprehension fail on my part. The only reason I’ll disagree with you on this is because between Wright, Reyes, Beltran, Bay, Frankie and Santana, we’re not signing another big contract this off season, so lets see if we can get a star player through the draft for a few million dollars. Not that I’m a fan of Harvey
well i doubt harvey will be ready in the next 1-2 offseasons anyway
plus with Wright, Reyes and Bay we really don’t need more stars. We need the average players.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
a lot of risk
that doesn’t sound like a top ten pick, maybe a first rounder
I like Harvey
Yes, he’d be a somewhat risky pick — but I’d say a guy who’s had success playing at the highest level of college baseball is less risky than most prep arms, and his ceiling is undeniable.
But to me he seems to have a lot of the same risks as a prep arm
with a much smaller window (and thus ceiling). It’s like with Holt, he had a dynamic fastball but shaky secondary offerings, if he was a prep arm he’d be like 20 now with plenty of time to figure things out. But since he was a college arm and is 24 the clock is ticking.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
I think Harveys secondary offerings are far more advanced than Holts were at this point.
His slider and change are viewed as average offerings, and the curve his coaches have had him scrap was actually considered to be a plus. Holt didn’t have any pitches outside his fastball that were even considered average. The big concern with Harvey seems to be repeatability with his release point more than his secondary stuff.
Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...
by Stephen Schmidt on Jun 3, 2010 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions
BA has both his fastball and slider as a 70 on the 20-80 scale
Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...
by Stephen Schmidt on Jun 4, 2010 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions
I think you're way underestimating Harvey
His fastball is a definite plus pitch, one of the best in the draft, and his secondary offerings all show the potential to be good ones as well. I don’t think there is any doubt he’s a first round talent.
Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...
While maybe saying he isn’t a first round guy was too tough, I still don’t like him much. I recognize the fastball is good, he gets grounders and he seems durable, but if I am going for a college guy I am looking for him to be more advanced. I’d want to see more developed secondary stuff, and the command worries me a good deal as well.
I just see too many flaws in his game for a #7 pick.
It just strikes me as odd then that you would be interested in Pomeranz
His control is far more of an issue than Harvey
Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...
by Stephen Schmidt on Jun 3, 2010 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I never said anything about being interested in Pomeranz.
That list I posted were just the guys I thought would be gone before we got our chance pick.
That makes more sense then
I was assuming they were the guys you’d prefer if they were available
Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...
by Stephen Schmidt on Jun 3, 2010 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I want the Mets to draft Josh Sale or Zach Cox
Assuming Harper, Machado, and Taillon are all gone by the seventh pick.
Gas prices today are a lot like a pitcher's ERA. Anything under 3 is amazing, under 4 is pretty good and anything 5 and up is something you want to avoid.
Not a fan of Cox
He doesn’t hit for a ton of power, strikes out a lot, and isn’t a great fielder. According to project prospect, if he were to be a top 10 pick, he’d have the lowest ISO of any top 10 hitter in the last 10 years. He has 8 homers in 213 ABs. Last year he struck out 65 times in 199 ABs, and only drew 20 walks. He’s been better this year 33 walks to 29 Ks, but he’s not too impressive in my opinion.
Most of the scouting reports I've read compliment his defense
I got the feeling from what I’ve read that he’s capable of playing 3rd or 2nd well enough to not hurt his value at either position.
Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...
by Stephen Schmidt on Jun 4, 2010 9:06 AM EDT up reply actions
not everything the mets touch turns to shit
"No disrespect to the batter," Figueroa said, "but tacos are good."
by inventor frank on Jun 4, 2010 3:38 AM EDT up reply actions
five years ago the farm system was considered to be barren
now we have guys at every level that are predicted to contribute to the big league team in a meaningful way, some of them very soon, most of whom are the result of some strong drafting
"No disrespect to the batter," Figueroa said, "but tacos are good."
by inventor frank on Jun 4, 2010 3:41 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah but it really shouldn't take a team with our resources
5 years to finally turn in an average farm system. Multiple teams have literally rebuilt their farm system in one year/off-season/draft before. The fact it took us five years to climb from dreadful to a little above average is kind of concerning.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
and actually our farm system is majority the result of IFA's
we’ve had one strong draft, two really really bad ones, and two average ones.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
Considering the lack of high draft picks, that's actually not bad.
We’d obviously be in better shape if the FO was allowed to go over slot with their picks, but considering the circumstances Omar has actually added a fair amount of talent. I really can’t fault him too heavily for the guys he’s drafted just due to the limitations Wilpon has put on him.
Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...
by Stephen Schmidt on Jun 4, 2010 9:11 AM EDT up reply actions
In the first few years Omar was here I didn't have a big issue with it.
It seemed like he was spending less in the draft but spending huge on IFA’s. If that trend had continued I don’t think I’d have major issues with it. The last few years though, most of the rest of the league has gotten heavily into latin america, and we’ve seen teams outspending us fairly regularly there as well.
Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...
by Stephen Schmidt on Jun 4, 2010 9:41 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm not really sure failing to go over slot
really excuses spending multiple high picks (as in top rounds) on college relievers and failing to even make offers to players you drafted.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
I think you're pushing the college reliever thing a little far.
Joe Smith seems to have been a solid pick, and Niesen and Rustich were both guys that have starter stuff and have been used as such. That pretty much leaves Kunz and Clyne. I think we’d all agree they were bad picks, but teams make bad picks from time to time. 4 of those 5 picks came in one draft, so I’m not sure you can really draw too many conclusions other than the Mets didn’t like many of the players available that year.
Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...
by Stephen Schmidt on Jun 4, 2010 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
That draft has turned out to look pretty awful because of Kunz and Vineyard, but Omar actually didn't do that terribly.
That draft has still produced Gee, Owen, Duda, Lutz, Merritt, and Niesen all from picks 99 and up. Kunz was really the only truly awful pick they made in that draft, had Vineyard not just quit instead of retiring this draft would likely look fairly decent right now.
Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...
by Stephen Schmidt on Jun 4, 2010 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions
*Quit instead of rehabbing*
Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...
by Stephen Schmidt on Jun 4, 2010 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah but taking college relievers with starter stuff
makes no sense. There’s a reason they were relievers in the first place, and why Rustich can’t make it through a season without his arm blowing up.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
I don't think thats necessarily true
Alot of college relievers are kids who weren’t pitchers in high school, or who weren’t primarily pitchers. Many of these college coaches aren’t thinking about developing players as their primary focus…they are doing what is best for them to win in the 3 year window they have the kids. I think in many cases that leads to them not developing offspeed and breaking stuff as completely due to the time and poor results that would come along with that development. Guys with stuff like Niesen and Rustich are certainly gambles, but they both have the stuff to be starters if it works. A major college program isn’t going to sacrifice wins to develop that stuff, as the coaches really need to worry about their jobs.
Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...
by Stephen Schmidt on Jun 4, 2010 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
not to mention the ruff meme
who can put a price on that?
"No disrespect to the batter," Figueroa said, "but tacos are good."
by inventor frank on Jun 4, 2010 8:31 PM EDT up reply actions
who are the multiple teams rebuilding with a single draft?
"No disrespect to the batter," Figueroa said, "but tacos are good."
by inventor frank on Jun 4, 2010 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions
the mariners last year
the red sox in the 2004 draft
Braves in the 2008 draft
and i can probably come up with some more later but im in the middle of saving the universe from crazy synthetic aliens.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
The Braves 2008 draft was interesting, but I wouldn't even say it was as good as the Mets 2008 draft.
DeVa;;, Stovall, and Spurrill are interesting, and Kimbrel looks good, but what else have they really gotten out of that draft? They may very well end up with only 1 RP out of that draft. I wouldn’t exactly say the Mariners rebuilt their farm in last years draft yet either, as Ackley seems to be the only can’t miss prospect they have from that draft. The only member of the Red Sox 2004 draft that’s on the Sox is Pedroia. Cla Meredith and Steve Pearce are the only other two that have made the majors.
Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...
by Stephen Schmidt on Jun 4, 2010 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions
maybe you should stick to the aliens
because the stuff you’re saying about baseball, it makes no sense.
the red sox in 2003 already had hanley ramirez, jon lester, papelbon in their minors. not barren. and then in 2004 the draft netted the red sox pedroia, and… thats all.
wrong on both counts, gina.
as far as 2008/9 drafts, how about the draftees play a bit before we make any judgments about rebuilt farm systems. this time last year brad holt was a world beater. now, not so much.
"No disrespect to the batter," Figueroa said, "but tacos are good."
by inventor frank on Jun 4, 2010 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah thats my bad I meant 2005 draft
ellsbury
bowden
buckholz
lowrie
hansen
that effectively kept their system in the top ten despite Ramirez getting traded that winter, Lester getting diagnosed with cancer and Papelbon graduating.
And I don’t think anyone outside the mets organization considered holt a world beater, he was a 23 year old with no success above A ball and questionable secondary stuff. I don’t even think he appeared on any top 100 lists, he might have been on the back end of BA’s but I’m not sure. And I’d say 1-2 years is more than enough time to judge how a drafts affected a farm systems ranking, it’s not like we’re talking about whether these guys actually produced we’re talking about the perception of the systems.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
Also 2008 draftees would have been in the system for almost 2 years
at this point, in what world is that not considered playing a little bit?
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
"I don’t see the logic where a team with money should take more risk."
I think it’s because a team with money can or at least should be able to afford to buy decent regulars on the FA market whereas even a team like the Mets runs out of FA star money fairly quickly. Between Bay, Santana, Wright, Reyes, and Beltran, none of whom are busts thus far, that’s something like 84 mil next year, and that doesn’t even count the quasimistakes like Rodriguez. So, the thinking goes, take a shot at a star, and if he doesn’t pan out look to patch and fill if necessary with, say, Barajas and Blanco, or failing that buy the 2 WAR guy you need to keep from having a hole in your lineup.
I'd almost argue that your point indicates the Mets should be drafting safer.
With the Money the Mets have to add guys like Johan, Bay, and Beltran, they really just need to round out the roster with solid regulars to be a very good team. Drafting “safer” guys like Havens and Davis might not be the most exciting way to draft, but they seem like very safe bets to quickly get to the majors and produce on a league average level. Taking the more sure thing instead of gambling on a risky guy seems like the smarter play from an orginization that actually has money to spend in free agency.
Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...
by Stephen Schmidt on Jun 4, 2010 9:15 AM EDT up reply actions
exactly this is what im saying
but mostly because stockpiling a bunch of B guys makes it easier to make trades, if you take a bunch of high risk guys and only one pans out then when guys like Lee/Sabathia/Fielder/Crawford hit the trade market it makes it impossible to make a trade work without literally emptying out all your talent.
I wonder if Carl Everett believes Jamie Moyer exists.
The "safe" guys at #7 should still be really good prospects anyway.
I don’t know that the Mets can really go wrong with any of the guys they seem to be discussing. I’d prefer they stay away from Pomeranz and McGuire, but even they are pretty safe bets to be solid major leaguers.
Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...
by Stephen Schmidt on Jun 4, 2010 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Apparently,
the Royals are close to a deal with Grandal
"I want to win now, not 3 years from now. That's my stance." - Kevin Burkhardt
They can have an understanding in place if he falls to them
That doesn’t really stop teams in front from taking him if they want though. The Pirates did the same with Sanchez last year. If they have to go way overslot to sign him though, Selig likely won’t approve the deal until August 15th, so I’d guess that either this report or his contract demands are wrong.
Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...
by Stephen Schmidt on Jun 5, 2010 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions
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