Driving Runners In, By Percentage
by Eno Sarris on Jul 22, 2010 12:00 PM EDT
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Piggybacking off of Eric's post about grading the batters in the first half of the season, I thought it would make sense to look at how the Mets are doing at driving runners in - but not by RBI, but by how many runners they knock in by percentage. Actually, I lie. I'm downright stealing this idea from Tommy Rancel over at SBN brother site DRaysBay, who robbed it from Tom Haberstroh, who makes a great twitter follow if you like basketball. Phew. On with it then.
If the flaw behind RBI is the fact that anyone that can make contact like a major leaguer and is stuck in the four or five spot can produce RBI (Jeff Francoeur and 2004 Tony Batista, I'm looking in your direction), then perhaps a statistic that broke RBI down into a rate stat would have some value, eh? Good thing that Baseball Reference has such a statistic. It's called BRS% for short, which is good because the long version is "percentage of all baserunners who scored on the batter's play but not necessarily with an RBI." Wonder why that name didn't catch on.
You calculate BRS% by simply taking all the base runners that score when a certain batter is at the plate and dividing by the total number of base runners on base when a that batter is at the plate. The average across all of baseball is 15% in any given year, another one of those beautiful numbers that tends to stay the same when you zoom out enough (like BABIP, HR/FB and LOB%). So, let's look at the Mets.
You guys are smart enough to know that Josh Thole's career numbers are not yet significant, nor are Carlos Beltran's season stats. It's temping to read into both numbers, though, and say that Thole's ability to make contact will serve him well in this regard, and that Beltran's knee is manifesting itself here. Let's avoid doing that just yet though.
Hey, look at that, David Wright is pretty good at knocking runners in when given the chance! Crazy. As a point of reference, Ryan Howard, King of the RBI, has knocked in 19% of his baserunners over his career. Current RBI leader Miguel Cabrera is knocking in 21% of his baserunners this year, but also owns a 19% career number. So we got a couple of run producers here, on par with the elite.
What Jason Bay teaches us is that he's doing the same as he's ever done. If we want to blame him for low RBI totals, we're going to have to blame the rest of the Mets lineup. He knocks about 16% of his baserunners in this year and career. Sure, that number leapt to 19% last year, but he also had a legit AL team around him. In other words, he got to bat with runners on base 70% of the time in Boston - here, that number has dropped to 67%. And anyway, when a guy knocks in 16% over his career, and 17% for three straight years in Boston, I wouldn't use that 19% number to predict his time in New York. He's been an above-average run producer - over his career, and yes, this season. There have been problems in his game so far with the Mets, but let's not all tear our hair out just yet.
Jeff Francouer, well here's just another way to show his average- or below-average-ness.
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I'm glad you posted this
To me, this is the best way to put RBI in any sort of meaningful context. Another way is to look at the OBP of the guys who hit in front of the batter in the lineup (which this does, indirectly).
it doesn't matter much anyway
The Mets front office doesn’t believe in stats, even useful traditional ones like getting on base :)…
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
This should be pronounced BRUZ
And this man should be the patron saint of this stat
"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin
that is to say, THIS man
"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin
by dcrockett17 on Jul 22, 2010 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
So we are paying 16Million a yr
For Bay who is just above avg and another 5million for an AVG run producer Francour
This
Let’s say he’s an above average #5 hitter on a team (which doesn’t have Alex Cora in the 2 hole). He probably gets 65-85 RBI with his 16% BRS%. Add 30 RBI knocking himself in on his homers and that’s 95-115. Instead, he’s on pace for 10 homers and 76 RBI.
He's not going to continue to play like this forever.
Eventually he’s going to snap out of this and be the player we expected.
"Never throw a slider to The Glider."
- Ed Charles, No. 5
"Who has more fun than people?"
- Ralph Kiner
While I think you're right
Are we absolutely so sure of this? He’s on the other side of 30, and it’s not unheard of for a player to take a precipitous nosedive after he reaches a certain age. One of the reasons a lot of people opposed the contract in the first place was because they worried that he would no longer be as productive after the 2nd or 3rd year of the contract. Maybe those fears are being realized a bit early. I hope and suspect not, but we’re all readily assuming that he really will rebound to career norms.
IDK
He took one heck of a nosedive this season. His HR/FB rate hasn’t shown any progressive decline until this year when it went from like 15% to 6%.
yeah it's unlikely he'll continue to be
this bad. but it’s not unreasonable to think a bounce back is going to be majorly hampered by a more natural decline of skills. So even though he won’t be this bad he might never be as good as we expected.
I want Jerry Manuel fired now, not three years from now. That is my stance.- John Peterson
Mets sign reliever Chad Cordero to a minor league contract
Can he hit?
"Never throw a slider to The Glider."
- Ed Charles, No. 5
"Who has more fun than people?"
- Ralph Kiner
.000
Batting Average in seven seasons. Nice.
"Hope for the Best, Expect the Worst"
Let's hope this motto changes...
by NetsMets4Life on Jul 22, 2010 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions
how many at bats?
"The one thing you don't want to do is hit a home run. That's a rally-killer." -Jeff Francoeur
by RangersandMets on Jul 22, 2010 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions
0 fer 5
Thats reasonable
"Hope for the Best, Expect the Worst"
Let's hope this motto changes...
by NetsMets4Life on Jul 22, 2010 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Consistent
What's the score, boys?
What did Bugs Bunny do?
What's with the Carrot League baseball today?
Well I thought this was a pretty good piece
but then a comment over at the Metsblog link set me straight
These numbers mean ABSOLUTELY nothing. Another terrible waste of analysis.
Stop wasting analysis Eno.
did they expound on why they mean nothing
I’m always open to discussion. But if they like other numbers, like RBI?, and just not these, well, pfffft.
analysis is a non-renewable resource for them
once they use a brain cell once, it’s gone forever.
Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?
by KeithsMoustache on Jul 22, 2010 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
renewable analysis is just a pipe dream
we need to use offshore analysis to keep up with the demand, we can easily contain analysis spills.
Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?
by KeithsMoustache on Jul 22, 2010 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Well they are right and wrong
Numbers by themselves are meaningless. It is by context and analysis that they mean something. Thanks Eno.
Wright and Bay
Fixed the Wright numbers and updated for last night. Sorry bout that.
Also, when I said that Bay has fewer baserunners on base to drive in, that only affects his RBI, not his BRS%.
Good stuff.
Wish there was a way to take into account which base the runners were on without getting too mathy. Handle them separately? Compare each to league average and do weighted average (probably too mathy).
Also would be interesting to only include success and outs in the denominator (and ignore when the hitter gets on but doesn’t drive in a run — that’s not exactly a failure).
Good idea!
Sounds very doable. Not too mathy at all. I’m sure some stat geek is working on it right now. I would be very interested to see the result.
Solo shots...
Continuing the thoughts above, would it make sense to add a column with solo homeruns and then have an Adjusted BRS% ? Because clearly, someone who can hit it out of the park is an upgrade over someone who can’t, if the two players have the same BRS%…
formerly known around these parts as nycbroncosfan
PS.
Well, not just solo shots. All homers, right? If this exercise is to find which batters help produce the most runs, then shouldn’t homers be included in some way?
formerly known around these parts as nycbroncosfan
by Douglas A. Lee on Jul 22, 2010 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Am I missing something?
Why is Wright’s BR number so low?
by METSRULE on Jul 22, 2010 2:49 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I'm guessing most of the time he goes to the plate with 2 outs, nobody on.
Hitting in the #3 spot, that is.
In lobby campaign for Chris Carter.
No, it has to be a mistake, his BRS is only 27
But his RBI-HR is 52. So unless he drove in a lot of ghost runners, there’s a problem.
Definitely a mistake.
There’s no way Jose can have 30 more. In fact, it’s a pretty odd that Reyes and Pagan have precisely the same number, when Pagan has played so many more games. And even odder coincidence that the four primary regulars all have numbers ending in 57 or 87. Something’s fishy here…
Rec'd, for answering a question I've been asking often
I’ve wanted, especially recently, to know what the average BRS% was (not even knowing its name).
Shouldn't Beltran's percentage for 2010 be greater than zero?
He has an RBI which did not come via a solo homer.
Wouldn't it make sense
to weight this stat based on situation? For instance, bases loaded and nobody out would have a higher expected RBIs than runner on first and 2 out. Also, you could count solo home runs that way. It might make it more complex, but also probably more useful.
You don't cheer for the Mets. You drink for the Mets.
Over time, that'd even out, you'd think
This is a pretty good proxy, although I’m sure it correlates heavily with SLG.
I like this stat
It shows that Francouer is actually only a little worse than davis, and shows that Castillo is better than Bay, Davis and Barajas though
Currently, but not historically.
It also shows that Pagan should be batting cleanup. Or maybe he and Bay should swap.
No Pagan is not a cleanup hitter, but he should not be batting second thou
Pagan seems like he would be better suited driving in runs lower in the order rather than second. And Barajas is just horrible. He swings at everything like Frenchie and cant get on base at all. He is a something or nothing batter and a useless bat, almost an automatic out at the bottom of our order. Thole should be starting over him every day. We should just let Barajas go and keep Thole and Blanco. We should go with this same lineup everyday: Reyes, Castillo, Wright, Beltran, Pagan, Davis, Bay, Thole. That lineup is very balanced and has strength all throughout. Moving Bay all the way to 7th is helpful considering how poor he is hitting. And if Bay starts to produce all the better having his increased production in the seven hole. Pagan is a great contact hitter and would be able to do a better job of driving in runs than Davis.
I agree Pagan is not a cleanup hitter
Just saying that’s what these stats point to. Now playing my own devil’s advocate, Pagan is not considered a cleanup hitter because he’s not a home run hitter. But if you look at these stats, your guy with the best BRS% should be batting 4th or 5th. Of course, some of the base runners our current 3-6 guys are knocking inare Pagan.
Anyway, no matter how you slice it, Pagan is one of the most undervalued players in MLB.
that's really not what these stats point too at all
your best hitters shouldn’t be batting a slow as 6th. They should barely be batting 5th.
I want Jerry Manuel fired now, not three years from now. That is my stance.- John Peterson
I'll never understand
the driving force that pushes people to want to put a terrible hitter in the #2 hole. You score more runs when your better hitters get more at-bats, period. We should be celebrating that Jerry is running with Pagan there, its a miracle.
ain't had enough...
eh I doubt it's a miracle
he probably just doesn’t think Pagan is a great hitter. Or he thinks he’s not a power guy and only power guys can hit 3-6
I want Jerry Manuel fired now, not three years from now. That is my stance.- John Peterson
He probably just thinks:
Oh, he’s fast and hasn’t ever hit 20 HR’s, plus he doesn’t limp… 2-hole!
Save Jenrry Mejia!
I think common sense plus all the geek research on it
says that all your best hitters should be in the 1,2,4 than 3 hole. Than just put the rest of your guys in order of how good they are. The reason you want your 4 hitter better than 3rd is that your cleanup guy tends to lead off the second inning a lot of times during the year and hence needs to be an “RBI guy” on top of a leadoff high OBP guy.
Regardless, it doesn’t matter much what order you put your hitters as long as you bunch the good ones together to maximize your chance of scoring. Hopefully that means at the top of the lineup so those guys get 4-5 ABs a game.
trades to help our team
The Mets desperately need some trades to help out. OUr bullpen is not that good and getting taxed. We should make some sort of deal to get Scott Downs from the Blue birds. If we can’t get Haren or Oswalt then we need to get Lilly and badly. He is not going to cost that much in terms of players. I say we also try to get Theriot in the Lilly deal so we have a useful 2b for once who can hit, get on base, steal bags and field well. So we get Lilly and Theriot and give the Cubbies Frenchie, Havens, Holt and one more guy. Adding Lilly, Theriot and Downs would really improve the chances of our team. Theriot isn’t really necessary but he would be helpful.
but...
we have chad cordero now!
"The one thing you don't want to do is hit a home run. That's a rally-killer." -Jeff Francoeur
by RangersandMets on Jul 22, 2010 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Or we could have bullpen management...
Ya know, little things like not putting the closer in in blowouts and not relying on the Ollie/Valdes/Nieve combination for tie games on the road.
Or things that are somewhat less obvious than that.
Or we could just score now and then.
by MookieTheCat on Jul 23, 2010 2:40 AM EDT up reply actions
It would be intersting to see this noramilzed by other stats
Like say normalized to their BA or SLG or something like that. Not really that it would be 100% useful, just kinda interesting to see. It makes sense Wright knocks in such a large percentage because he hit for such a high average/power, but does is his BRS% similar to other players with similar stats.
I know someone else mentioned what base they were on
I also imagine the speed of the person on base would make a big difference. Like if Wright was continually coming up with Reyes/Pagna on base he’d probably have a better chance of picking up an rbi than someone coming up with Barajas on base (though it’s moot since he never gets on base but pretend we had someone large and slow who didn’t suck.)
I want Jerry Manuel fired now, not three years from now. That is my stance.- John Peterson
yeah i was thinking Adam Dunn
but I don’t think he’s actually all that slow for a guy his size?
I want Jerry Manuel fired now, not three years from now. That is my stance.- John Peterson
No I think you're right
I’ve heard he’s the acme of why base-clogging is a myth. Maybe McCann? Fielder?
BRS% vs. % success in opportunities
I may be wrong here, but the BRS% is based on the total number of runners scored, as opposed to the success per opportunity, correct? For example, if Batter A hits a grand slam in one at-bat and then fails in two other BR opps, and Batter B knocks in one runner in each of his three BR opps, I believe the BRS% would be the same, but the success per opportunity rate would be 33% for Batter A vs. 100% for Batter B. If so, I don’t think BRS% is as good an indication, especially since it’s not fair to compare home run hitters with those who aren’t, since the BR stat includes runners on first. Is there a stat that looks at the success rate per opportunity (regardless of how many baserunners scored in each opportunity)?
Sac Flies
I always thought the sac fly was a good indicator of performance, and I always thought the Mets sucked at it.
I was very surprised to see on Baseball Reference that the Mets are tied with the Giants for second most sac flies at 34 (behind the Dodgers with 36).
By contrast, Philly: 33, Atlanta: 22, St. Louis: 19.
Wright is tied for 2nd in the NL with 8. Frenchy has 7.
I really like this, Eno
If you want to get fans interested in statistical analysis, hitting them over the head with WAR and BABIP won’t work. What you can do is explain something relatively easy to understand like BRS% to show how RBI can’t measure a player’s worth in and of itself. They may get defensive with other stats or simply saying “Frenchy sucks,” but this way you can demonstrate HOW Frenchy sucks (or is at least not as good as everyone thinks he is.)
Rec’d.
What's the score, boys?
What did Bugs Bunny do?
What's with the Carrot League baseball today?
Interesting stats, though I don’t fully agree that it means he’s doing what he’s always done or that we should blame the rest of the lineup.
If I am reading that stat correctly it seems like Wright and Bay both have had about the same number of runners on, so its not like Bay has had an impossibly low number of runners on base. I think if those numbers suggest anything, its that the lack of HRs are really killing him. The last 2 yrs he’s had 19 and 20 HR before the ASB. If he had close to 20 HRs right now, he’d also have around 60 RBI and his season would look a lot better
it's more of a post about bay and dampening expectations
The run environment in the AL, and in Boston in particular, meant that Bay was never going to be 2009 Bay, so we should have lowered our expectations going into the season. So sure, he’s not quite the Bay he’s always been, but it wouldn’t take much to get to pre-2009 Bay…
Actually, everybody stole this idea from me!
I know this comment is late, but check it out:
http://fonzieforever.blogspot.com/2010/03/jason-bay-and-problem-with-rbis-part-2.html
Your article is a million times better, but still… I blazed this trail!
“Obviously, Bay had a great year for driving in runners last season – but it was his best year ever. Here are the percentages, going back in time, for Bay versus the average:
2008: 9.17%
2007: 8.05%
2006: 9.20%
ML average was 6.95%, 7.17%, and 7.30% each of those years."
by Brian Mangan on Jul 23, 2010 5:30 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
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