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Around SBN: Explaining Jeremy Lin's Early, Surprising Success

Mets 4, Cardinals 0: Dickey, Davis Crush Cardinals

Not that a couple of games is ever the be-all end-all of things, but juxtapose Johan Santana's first-inning meltdown on Wednesday with R.A. Dickey's eight-plus-inning performance on Thursday afternoon and the debate over who is the Mets' best pitcher right now should end pretty quickly. Despite declining velocity and a sub-6.00 strikeouts-per-nine rate, Santana is still the king of Queens for the foreseeable future, but Dickey has almost certainly been the team's best starter this season.

Dickey's 2.32 walks-per-nine rate is the best among Mets starters and his strikeout rate is better than Santana's and Mike Pelfrey's. The walk rate in particular is stunning, as Dickey sported marks in excess of four walks a game in each of the last two seasons. What Angel Pagan has been to the lineup, R.A. Dickey has been to the starting rotation. The Mets are 6.5 games back of the Braves in the NL East, but they'd be far worse off without R.A.

  • Mike Hessman looked pretty good at third, which could mean a bit more playing time down the stretch if the Mets look to give David Wright the occasional day off. Then again, if they wind up clawing their way into playoff contention they'll be understandably reluctant to rest Wright at all. Still, the defensive versatility can only help Hessman's chances of sticking around.
  • Josh Thole went 1-for-2 with two walks. Rod Barajas getting injured was almost certainly for the best, as there was little chance Thole would get playing time otherwise what with Barajas having hit those dingers a few months ago.
  • Ike Davis's 15th home run of the year ties him with Wright for the team lead. Davis only played half of April.
  • Even the most shameless Jeff Francoeur apologists can't help but shake their heads when Frenchy comes to the plate these days.

The Diamondbacks come to Citi Field for a three-game series beginning on Friday, fresh off of getting swept by the Phillies.

Poem by Howard Megdal

With groundballs from knucklers and beard nonpareil
Dickey puts W where there had been L
And if it is massive home runs that you like
Well, may I present three-run bomb hit by Ike
Pujols and Holliday no match for Frankie
Remember this next time that he makes you cranky

Star-divide

SB Nation Coverage

* Traditional Recap
* Boxscore
* Amazin' Avenue Gamethread
* Viva El Birdos Gamethread

Win Probability Added

Big winners: R.A. Dickey, +30.1% WPA, Ike Davis, +17.5% WPA
Big losers: Jeff Francoeur, -7.1% WPA, Carlos Beltran, -6.8% WPA
Teh aw3s0mest play: Davis three-run home run in third, +20.6% WPA
Teh sux0rest play: Beltran fly out in third, -6.5% WPA
Total pitcher WPA: +33.4% WPA
Total batter WPA: +16.6% WPA
GWRBI!: Ike Davis

Game Thread Roll Call

Nice job by NetsMets4Life; his effort in the game thread embiggens us all.

Num Name # of Posts
1 NetsMets4Life 77
2 aparkermarshall 57
3 Syler 47
4 Lunkwill Fook 37
5 ljmilman 36
6 itsmetsforme 35
7 Prince 21
8 ZOT! 20
9 The Glider 20
10 Jadden Hopkins 17

Comment 129 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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I shudder to think where this team would be without R.A. Dickey

Guy’s a godsend

There is no hope.... there is no future....there is only GRISSIONZ

The 2010 Mets- Hey, we may suck, but what did you expect?

by Syler on Jul 29, 2010 2:51 PM EDT reply actions  

I have the same feeling

yet somehow the Mets managed to lose last 6 Dickey’s starts.

by alexSVK on Jul 29, 2010 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Dickey and Pagan

are, as far as I’m concerned, the happiest things that have happened to the Mets this year.

by dontstopbelieving on Jul 29, 2010 2:58 PM EDT reply actions  

Ike Davis...

Numbers aren’t there yet, but I love having him and he’s made a real difference in games. Thole being a starter by years end would be nice.

Pelfrey, Niese, Dickey, Santana sure sounds like a great playoff rotation, don't it? Let's Go Mets!

by ZaBlanc on Jul 29, 2010 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agree

and would add Niese and agree with Ike & Thole posts above

blurgh! - me

by blains2000 on Jul 29, 2010 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

DICKEY PUNDS PUJOLS INSIDE

That’s the much better headline.

Pelfrey, Niese, Dickey, Santana sure sounds like a great playoff rotation, don't it? Let's Go Mets!

by ZaBlanc on Jul 29, 2010 2:59 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

I think that leaves the realm of innuendo and goes straight into Homoeroticismland.

by Lunkwill Fook on Jul 29, 2010 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Every time Pagan gets a hit or scores a run...

He should walk by Jerry Manuel and say, “F you. You started GMJ over me on Opening Day.”

by Bieser's Balk on Jul 29, 2010 3:00 PM EDT reply actions  

He should have that on a stamp.

And just slam him with it.

Darrelle Revis once won a game of Connect Four in three moves.

by bm01bath on Jul 29, 2010 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Put a syringe on the stamp

Consequences will never be the same.

by NetsMets4Life on Jul 29, 2010 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

So you're saying he OWES Manuel

Maybe that was the motivator Pagan needed all these years. Jerry says, “You’re welcome!”

Pelfrey, Niese, Dickey, Santana sure sounds like a great playoff rotation, don't it? Let's Go Mets!

by ZaBlanc on Jul 29, 2010 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

.

Yeeeeaaaaahhhh... Suuuuuuure

Save Jenrry Mejia!

by Ogre39666 on Jul 29, 2010 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

If Bay is DL'd

I’d love to see a Duda/Hessman platoon in LF (with Pagan shifting to RF). It couldn’t possibly be worse than Franceour.

by dontstopbelieving on Jul 29, 2010 3:06 PM EDT reply actions  

Oswalt deal official

Consequences will never be the same.

by NetsMets4Life on Jul 29, 2010 3:13 PM EDT reply actions  

Great.

Now we get to face Halladay and Oswalt and possibly Hamels when we see them.

Joy.

One day, this team is going to kill me.

by fxcarden on Jul 29, 2010 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Score!!!

Consequences will never be the same.

by NetsMets4Life on Jul 29, 2010 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

If Johan ever regains his velocity. maybe

But right now, he’s worse than all three of those guys.

There is no hope.... there is no future....there is only GRISSIONZ

The 2010 Mets- Hey, we may suck, but what did you expect?

by Syler on Jul 29, 2010 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

johan looked good in LA

the guns said he was often pitching high 80’s but seemed to find 91 when he needed it

I like Ike, I hate Jerry

by astromets on Jul 29, 2010 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

2.8 WAR this season

Better than Oswalt or Hamels.
You don’t mess with the ZJohan

John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.

by squid92 on Jul 29, 2010 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

oh

SNAP

2009 Did Not Happen

by cjmulrain on Jul 29, 2010 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah but WAR uses FIP

which doesn’t correct for HR rate, so Hamels, playing in a band box, gets screwed over by it. I’m pretty sure Johan has the highest xFIP of those three, I’d have to check to be sure for Oswalt.

I want Jerry Manuel fired now, not three years from now. That is my stance.- John Peterson

by Gina on Jul 29, 2010 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

how is tERA different from tra

from what I understand tra isn’t very predictive.

I want Jerry Manuel fired now, not three years from now. That is my stance.- John Peterson

by Gina on Jul 29, 2010 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

isn't it tRA*.92?

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Jul 29, 2010 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

...which is the scale, i think

John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.

by squid92 on Jul 29, 2010 11:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

But...

he leads the MLB in losses!

Darrelle Revis once won a game of Connect Four in three moves.

by bm01bath on Jul 29, 2010 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

How to tell if your lunch break took too long:

you left when the game was in the second inning, when you came back the game was over.

2009 Did Not Happen

by cjmulrain on Jul 29, 2010 3:17 PM EDT reply actions  

Dickey T-Shirt

What do you think of this bad boy – click on my icon for a look (the image is small, but you get a sense of how cool he looks with a 19th century top hat on):

it says:
R.A Dickey’s
Old Tyme
Fantabulous
Flutterball
It Dips It Swerves It Glides
Cures Many of To-day’s Common Ailments

Anybody want one? I did one up and it looks awesome.

by SheaHey on Jul 29, 2010 3:18 PM EDT reply actions  

That.Is.Outstanding.

I’ve got this for now. I think your shirt get my point across better.

Consequences will never be the same.

by NetsMets4Life on Jul 29, 2010 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

LOL

Do you wear that to citi field? Well, a lot of people who go there these days wouldn’t know who it’s referring to anyway. They go there because the Shake Shack line is shorter than at Madison Square Park.

by SheaHey on Jul 29, 2010 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

I have to say

It’s a pretty damn funny shirt. It’s also funny how you probably wouldn’t be caught dead in it. Depends on your mood I guess, huh?

by METSRULE on Jul 29, 2010 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'd wear that

for shits and giggles. I think it would ‘offend’ people of around 30-45, and younger and older folk would find it untroubling (for different reasons)

by deadspy3 on Jul 29, 2010 8:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

well, I'm in the 46-60 age bracket

and I think it’s hysterical.

It's a game of redeeming features. ~ Bob Murphy

by CTRefJay on Jul 30, 2010 8:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

DONTSTOPBELIEVING

Duda/Hessman in left would work. So would Nick Evans. Hope Bay going on the DL doesn’t stop a Francouer trade/release.

JEFF FRANCOUER
ANOTHER O FOR 4
(OK, IT’S A HALF A** HAIKU)

by MDMETSFAN on Jul 29, 2010 3:47 PM EDT reply actions  

Wasn't it intentional?

Darrelle Revis once won a game of Connect Four in three moves.

by bm01bath on Jul 29, 2010 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sort of...

Molina basically set up a foot off the plate. Jeffy would have had to step over the plate to hit those balls.

If there's ever a riot at Citi Field and Oliver Perez was the starter, I started the riot.

by meigs1414 on Jul 29, 2010 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

And infinite smiles and jumping handshakes

Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.

by AnthonyR on Jul 29, 2010 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Double D’s Crush Cardinals

by nmigliore on Jul 29, 2010 4:19 PM EDT reply actions  

I'm so proud of R.A. Dickey.

He’s such a wonderful pitcher to root for!

by ThundaPC on Jul 29, 2010 4:29 PM EDT reply actions  

You are proud of him???

Is that you, Cerrone?

Consequences will never be the same.

by NetsMets4Life on Jul 29, 2010 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

If we can somehow manage to win this DBacks series and then the series in Atlanta, we'd be right back in it

I know I sound like a crazy person, but the Braves haven’t lost a home series since April, and the Mets haven’t won a road series against an NL team all year. I mean, both have to happen at some point, don’t they?

There is no hope.... there is no future....there is only GRISSIONZ

The 2010 Mets- Hey, we may suck, but what did you expect?

by Syler on Jul 29, 2010 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah but by that logic

we have to get slaughtered on a home stand at some point too

I want Jerry Manuel fired now, not three years from now. That is my stance.- John Peterson

by Gina on Jul 29, 2010 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

We went 2-4 on the previous homestand (Reds, Braves)

There is no hope.... there is no future....there is only GRISSIONZ

The 2010 Mets- Hey, we may suck, but what did you expect?

by Syler on Jul 29, 2010 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

And the first homestand of the year was also 2-4

against Florida and Washington

"I reject your reality and substitute my own"
-Adam Savage

by blueandorange4life on Jul 29, 2010 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Dickey was pulled at the right time

"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"

by firejerrynow on Jul 29, 2010 5:08 PM EDT reply actions  

Definately not prematurely

He stayed the course and finshed off

Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.

by AnthonyR on Jul 29, 2010 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Heyward, Garcia, Posey, and probably Strasburg are all ahead of him at this point

There is no hope.... there is no future....there is only GRISSIONZ

The 2010 Mets- Hey, we may suck, but what did you expect?

by Syler on Jul 29, 2010 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

i doubt Garcia and Posey are ahead of him in the bbwa's eyes

if he ends the season leading rookies in hr’s I’d bet he at least finishes in the top 3-4.

I want Jerry Manuel fired now, not three years from now. That is my stance.- John Peterson

by Gina on Jul 29, 2010 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

Does Strasburg missing significant time due to his shoulder

(possibly) factor in to it at all? Same goes for Heyward I guess

"I reject your reality and substitute my own"
-Adam Savage

by blueandorange4life on Jul 29, 2010 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

Heyward wins automatically because he is god

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jul 30, 2010 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

Dickey is much better in the 2-hole

of the rotation. I think we can all agree on that.

by Brian Mangan on Jul 29, 2010 5:46 PM EDT reply actions  

You know there's a famous

old sports presenter in the UK called Dickie Davis? Well, I assume he’s dead now, but he might not be.

by deadspy3 on Jul 29, 2010 5:49 PM EDT reply actions  

Despite being 35, I think Dickey can provide some long term help for this team. Knuckleballers don’t have the same career span expectancy as most pitchers, and not having an ulnar collateral ligament I think would help protect against injury. You can’t hurt what isn’t there. Hopefully his recent success isn’t a fluke, in my opinion he has finally mastered the knuckleball and its reflected in his pitching this season.

by MatthewM11 on Jul 29, 2010 7:01 PM EDT reply actions  

I think either two things will happen

1. the mets will completely ignore his contribution and do something stupid like not even have him on the opening day roster next year
2. the mets will completely ignore the risks and low chances of him repeating his success next year and do something stupid like not add to the pitching staff at all

I want Jerry Manuel fired now, not three years from now. That is my stance.- John Peterson

by Gina on Jul 29, 2010 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah neither of those two scenarios would surprise me.

by MatthewM11 on Jul 29, 2010 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

The rotation is pretty much set though

with Johan, Pelfrey, Niese, and Dickey. Another top pitcher would be nice, but a decent pitcher would be nice too

by EtSuKe on Jul 29, 2010 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

They'll bring him back

He’s been our best pitcher by far this year, and he’s not going to be expensive at all, plus, the guy wants to be here.

I could definitely see scenario #2 happening though.

There is no hope.... there is no future....there is only GRISSIONZ

The 2010 Mets- Hey, we may suck, but what did you expect?

by Syler on Jul 29, 2010 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

You forget the correlated scenario #3...(Related to #2 but somewhat distinct)

The Mets will do something stupid like make him the # 3 starter and do everything in their power to create unrealistic expectations, both to justify their commission of # 2 and make talk radio shut up, and then blame him for underperforming.

by MookieTheCat on Jul 29, 2010 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

I hope the mets are realistic about there expectations of Dickey. Whether he can replicate his success from this year next year or not, he is a guy who can go out there every fifth day and eat innings. Based on the longevity of some notable knuckleballers, it seems that throwing it creates less stress on the arm. Niekro was throwing 300+ innings a year for a portion of his career, and still pitched until he was 48. They don’t have handle Dickey with kid gloves like they do to most of our pitchers.

by MatthewM11 on Jul 29, 2010 7:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

oh yeah that's what I meant by #2

I want Jerry Manuel fired now, not three years from now. That is my stance.- John Peterson

by Gina on Jul 29, 2010 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

I saw or heard just a line somewhere that Omar has liked Dickey for a few years

Just the situations hadn’t aligned to bring him on. So I’m pretty sure we’re keeping him. And they know we need another guy. Nobody’s suggesting that Perez is going back into the rotation, they’re apparently just keeping him because it would embarrass them to admit the magnitude of the error.

It’s not possible to write sentences about Dickey without innuendos. It’s just not.)

by SuperT on Jul 29, 2010 7:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

heh heh liked dickey

I want Jerry Manuel fired now, not three years from now. That is my stance.- John Peterson

by Gina on Jul 29, 2010 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

*They

One day, this team is going to kill me.

by fxcarden on Jul 29, 2010 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

Misch would be worse in the rotation than Takahashi

There is no hope.... there is no future....there is only GRISSIONZ

The 2010 Mets- Hey, we may suck, but what did you expect?

by Syler on Jul 29, 2010 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

my favorite Misch-take!

I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya

by itsmetsforme on Jul 30, 2010 2:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

Mets should go into sale mode and prepare for 2011

The Mets chances this year are essentially finished. We need to start moving pieces and get some ammo for next year. If a team is really interested in Pagan and we can get some nice prospects or a useful bullpen piece i say we make the move in the offseason. We cannot rely on Dickey to be a strong piece of the rotation. For all how great hes been and what he has done there is no guarantying he will be effective next year. Its like this year depending on Maine and Perez; not a good idea if there are aspirations for the offseason. We really need to really shore up the rotation and need to have a big starting 3 to compete with Philly and in the postseason. The biggest move we need to make is get Cliff Lee and pay what we need to get him. Maybe something like 5 years $100+ million with a sixth year option. Then the other move is to trade for Fausto Carmona. He would be a great fit on our team, do well sliding into the NL and is still a young pitcher with nasty stuff. Slot him in the five spot and our rotation is deep and scary. I say we could give the Indians something like Holt and another prospect; that seems like a fair deal. Then our rotation is fully stacked and well rounded with Santana, Lee, Pelf, Niese, Carmona. That rotation would lead our team regardless of our lineup. Then if we get rid of Pagan I would love to sign Carl Crawford. He would be such a great asset to our team and really contribute. Having him, Reyes and Wright at the top of the lineup is a nasty top three hitters. I would slot Crawford in LF and Bay in RF. Who cares about whatever defense we lose with Bay in RF, our offense and pitching should do well to cover up those weak spots. Then we have this awesome lineup to go along with our deadly rotation: Reyes, Crawford, Wright, Davis, Beltran, Bay, Thole, Castillo. That lineup has a little something all throughout and has all-stars/potential ones from 1-6. This lineup would do serious damage. All this takes is some creativity and a little spending of the dollars to get Lee (who we desperately need) and Crawford.

by TomCarvel on Jul 30, 2010 3:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

If the Wilpons actually spent this kind of money it would pay for itself. If we had this team we would be winning with consistency and the stadium should fill up every time as long as us Mets fans show up.

by TomCarvel on Jul 30, 2010 4:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

Again,

WHY DO YOU WANT TO TRADE PAGAN?!?!?

Save Jenrry Mejia!

by Ogre39666 on Jul 30, 2010 4:10 AM EDT up reply actions  

did you read the rest of his post

the obvious answer is that he’s completely insane, or drunk.

I want Jerry Manuel fired now, not three years from now. That is my stance.- John Peterson

by Gina on Jul 30, 2010 7:26 AM EDT up reply actions   2 recs

Tony La Russa

would like to know how that impedes baseball decision making!?

by deadspy3 on Jul 30, 2010 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

Driving ability...Yes...

Baseball decision making….No.

WALLY BACKMAN FOR MANAGER.

by MookieTheCat on Jul 30, 2010 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

aside from other comments about this

how much money do you think we have to spend? that we can afford to pay beltran, bay, crawford, santana and lee all 18 mil+

I like Ike, I hate Jerry

by astromets on Jul 30, 2010 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Phillies just started an arms race

I think there will be huge media pressure on the Wilpons to increase budget this offseason

by deadspy3 on Jul 30, 2010 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Glad to see K-Rod got the 4-run save.

Was this justified at all? Was in planes during the game.

by MookieTheCat on Jul 29, 2010 7:22 PM EDT reply actions  

Dickey was at 118 pitches and had just walked Jay

With Pujols and Holliday coming up at that point, I can’t blame Jerry for bringing in KRod there.

There is no hope.... there is no future....there is only GRISSIONZ

The 2010 Mets- Hey, we may suck, but what did you expect?

by Syler on Jul 29, 2010 7:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

It made me happy that Jerry was booed when he pulled Dickey out.

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jul 30, 2010 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions  

This is kind of a stopped clock is right twice a day situation...

I’ll give it to him that it may have been the right thing to do here. Doesn’t mean it’s the right thing to do every other time.

by MookieTheCat on Jul 30, 2010 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

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