Omar's Drafts 2005-08

by Adam F. on Jul 8, 2010 2:07 PM EDT

How well of a job would you say Omar has done drafting? We know he has rarely gone over-slot to sign a pick, hopefully signing Goeddels is a good sign.

Notable players from Omar's 2005-2008 drafts. Way too early too judge the past 2 years drafts.

2005

1. Mike Pelfrey

7. Jon Niese

9. Bobby Parnell

13. Josh Thole

There wasn't much other than these four, but a very nice foursome indeed. Pelfrey and Niese are MLB starters, Parnell a quality MLB reliever, and Thole has the potential for being an above average hitting catcher, who is very patient at the plate.

International signings- Fernando Martinez, Deolis Guerra, Stefan Welch

2006

2. Kevin Mulvey

3. Joe Smith

13. Daniel Murphy

16. Tobi Stoner

37. Josh Stinson

Mulvey and Smith have reached the Majors, not much success, but both were involved in trades, respectively helping to bring Johan Santana and J.J. Putz to the Mets. Otherwise Stinson could be a nice reliever and Murphy could be a bat off the bench, but not a whole lot of MLB talent in this one.

International signings- Ruben Tejada, Francisco Pena

2007

Com A. Eddie Kunz

2. Scott Moviel

3. Eric Niesen

5. Zach Lutz

7. Lucas Duda

14. Robert Carson

18. Michael Antonini

20. Dylan Owen

21. Dillon Gee

The Mets had a lot of picks early in this draft, at this point may not get anything from them. Duda has really started taking off this year, still projects as a platoon unless he can hit lefties better (although 3 HR's in 25 AB's in AAA is nice). Carson is a nice prospect, most of the others likely will only be MLB relievers or AAAA talent at best.

International signings- Jenrry Mejia, Wilmer Flores, Jordany Valdespin, Jeurys Familia, Jefry Marte, Cesar Puello

2008

1. Ike Davis

Comp A- Brad Holt

9. Eric Beaulac

12. Mark Cohoon

14. Brandon Moore

22. Chris Schwinden

24. Kyle Allen

Obviously a little early to rate the 2008 draft, but early results are indicating it was a very good draft for the Mets. A couple of nice prospects in Havens, Nieuwenhuis, Ratliff, Allen. Breakout year from Campbell, Holt has fallen apart. We like Ike, and this could be Omar's best draft.

International signings- Aderlin Rodriguez

Poll

Do you think Omar has done a good job in the MLB draft?

Nope

25 votes

Too early to tell

54 votes

Yes!

72 votes

At least he has made some good international signings

30 votes

181 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

he always was touted as a good scout

and a not so good businessman. still, we could have done better in each draft if we were willing to sign overslot more often

I like Ike

by astromets on Jul 8, 2010 2:25 PM EDT reply actions

Right, but thats more business than scouting

I’ve always been curious to see how well Omar COULD do if he were allowed to draft guys overslot (and sign them) like say the Red Sox do.

by Balagast on Jul 8, 2010 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions

A month ago

Lutz was a better prospect than Duda. He’s been injured, but he still has a bright future, in my opinion.

by Evan_S on Jul 8, 2010 2:33 PM EDT reply actions

The organization hasn't done a good job

I wouldn’t blame Omar for that though… Equal/more blame falls on the Wilpon’s spending and the scouting director

by Sam Page on Jul 8, 2010 2:50 PM EDT reply actions

I think Minaya is underrated, and much of the criticism he gets is unheralded, I think the real problem is Jerry Manuel

If you ask me “yes or no” has Minaya done a good job drafting, I would say yes. It would be nice if he could draft a guy who turns out to become a superstar, but maybe it is still to early to tell. Who knows, maybe Pelfrey becomes a multiple time Cy Young winner, or maybe Ike Davis hits 40 homers a year. I doubt it, but at the very least, he has drafted quality players who will be able to help the team and potentially be All-Stars. Many of the international signings are still to early in development to tell but I think some of them will pay off big time. Thumbs up for me.

Gas prices today are a lot like a pitcher's ERA. Anything under 3 is amazing, under 4 is pretty good and anything 5 and up is something you want to avoid.

by Bobby Baseball on Jul 8, 2010 3:18 PM EDT reply actions

Part of the problem with Minaya's drafts, besides the lack of overslot picks

is the loss of early draft picks. Some years it was worth it (Billy Wagner in 2006 comes to mind even though we gave the picks to Philly) but the problem comes when you give up your first rounder for a player like Moises Alou. He was a great player when he was healthy but it was stupid and foolish to throw away a first rounder for a 40 year old outfielder who’s always been injury prone. Then to also throw away early picks in 2009 by not letting go of Type A free agent Ollie Perez and then dealing Type A free agent Wagner for pennies is just stupid management. Not to say that all of the guys drafted with those picks would’ve worked out but I would rather roll the dice on the picks then have Ollie Perez, Chris Carter and 400 abs of moises alou (over 2 seasons).

But looking back, Minaya has done a solid job with the picks he has as well as the IFAs (that 2007 IFA class looks killer! forgot that all those guys were signed the same year).

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by Steve Schreiber on Jul 8, 2010 4:31 PM EDT reply actions 4 recs

basically

he’s Isiah Thomas without a salary cap.

2009 Did Not Happen

by cjmulrain on Jul 12, 2010 9:33 AM EDT up reply actions

before this year it looked like his draft record was an abysmal failure

however pelf, ike, niese, and a few others have managed to put it together.

"I only wanted a few things out of life -- a wife, children, to play baseball and to hunt deer." - Turk Wendell

by Rey-O on Jul 8, 2010 8:00 PM EDT reply actions

One thing

to keep in mind is that there’s been a few shakeups in the scouting department. I don’t know if later drafts are more indicative of Omar’s draft philosophy or not, but it’s worth noting.

by vigouge on Jul 8, 2010 8:12 PM EDT reply actions

I miss Joe Smith

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jul 9, 2010 1:02 AM EDT reply actions

I was a big fan until he stopped being a submariner and went fulltime sidearm

by FrancoTAU on Jul 9, 2010 2:08 AM EDT up reply actions

Overall, I don't give Omar bad or good marks for drafting

He’s gotten some nice pieces along with mostly waste picks, but not being able to go over slot screws us up badly after the first couple rounds.

It’s not like we had a great farm system in the late 90s/early 00s either.

by FrancoTAU on Jul 9, 2010 2:11 AM EDT reply actions

Omar

knows talent when he sees it. He’s also pretty good at making trades. The whole free agency market though? Not his thing

Thinking off of the top of my head, here are some deals of his I really liked:

Xavier Nady for Oliver Perez and Roberto Hernandez (Nady was a great hitter but health and bad defense impeded his ability to hold down a full time job. The Mets needed a setup man to replace the freak-injured Duaner Sanchez, and Hernandez was available. Hernandez performance was decent and made little difference, but down the strech Ollie posted a 4.30 xFIP and was very good in the playoffs, and was a useful starter for two seasons)

Kris Benson for John Maine and Jorge Julio (After an above average tenure with the Mets, Benson wasn’t striking out batters like he was. Minaya flipped over Benson to the O’s for John Maine and Jorge Julio. Maine was a useful starter for the Mets from 2006 to 2009, putting up similar production to Benson’s FIPs as a Met, and Benson fell off a cliff after the trade)

Jorge Julio and a prospect for Orlando Hernandez (Julio was just about useless and Omar flipped them to the D’Backs in exchange for El Duque, who posted a 2.8 WAR in his 47 appearances for the Mets)

Deolis Guerra, Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey and Philip Humber for Johan Santana (One of the best pitchers in the game for next to nothing. Well played, Omar)

Dustin Martin and Drew Butera to the Twins for Luis Castillo (Two nothing prospects for the most valuable second baseman to the team since the Fonz)

by METSMETSMETS on Jul 10, 2010 12:12 AM EDT reply actions

Wow, is that part about Castillo being the most valuable 2B since Fonzie right?

That’s scary.

by FrancoTAU on Jul 10, 2010 1:02 AM EDT up reply actions

Total WAR of 2B since the Fonz

1. Luis Castillo (3.7 WAR)
2. Jose Valentin (3.4 WAR)
3. Roberto Alomar (2.2 WAR)
4. Kaz Matsui (0.9 WAR)

by METSMETSMETS on Jul 10, 2010 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions

I'd think WAR/game would be more relevant, no?

Anyway, that was a good trade for Castillo. I just wish he wouldn’t have signed him to a FOUR-YEAR contract after that, even know we all knew he would. A great trade which was rubbed out five times over by signing him.

by JohnPeterson on Jul 13, 2010 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions

i know you said he stinks at FA

so while trading for Luis was smart, signing him to the deal he got was clearly not

I like Ike

by astromets on Jul 10, 2010 1:49 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah

and the Perez deal, and the K-rod deal

in addition to that, consider trading Billy Wagner, a Type A free agent, for Chris Carter and Eddie Lora instead of keeping him and claiming two first rounders

by METSMETSMETS on Jul 10, 2010 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions

This is totally incorrect

Deolis Guerra, Carlos Gomez, Kevin Mulvey and Philip Humber for Johan Santana (One of the best pitchers in the game for next to nothing. Well played, Omar)

I really don’t feel like looking up the numbers, but Guerra and Gomez were both top 100 prospects that year, Guerra was very similar to how we view Mejia, and Humber was top 100 the year before.

And Jose Valentin, in 2006, was the most valuable second baseman the Mets have had since Fonzie

by Evan_S on Jul 10, 2010 2:38 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, but we all knew Gomez stunk though. Tee hee

And Humber had some injury problems after he achieved good prospect status.

by FrancoTAU on Jul 10, 2010 3:18 AM EDT up reply actions

Guerra and Gomez

Gomez was a Top 100 prospect that year yes, but he was pretty one dimensional. He had speed, mediocre at best batting numbers and a big body that gave people hope that he’d fill out. Guerra at the time and Mejia now are COMPLETELY incomparable. Guerra was a guy who got a lot of acclaim due to his changeup, and his height and ability to fill out, but was very inconsistent with velocity, and mainly threw his fastball at 87 or 88. He also struggle in his terms in the FSL. Mejia is regarded due to his lively fastball that is consistently mid-90s with movement, a splitter-like changeup and a sharp power curve that can also be plus if develope. He’s short and won’t fill out much, but he kicked ass at FSL and is a significantly better prospect than Guerra ever was.

Mulvey was probably the best prospect in that deal, and outside of his power curve Humber was mediocre with a bad history of injury.

And my point is in the original post: Omar managed to deal away four prospects for Johan Santana, not one of them showing very meaningful development or contribution since. Mulvey has been mediocre in the minors and terrible in the majors, as with Humber. Guerra started this year getting shelled in AAA before being demoted again to AA, where he still lacks the ability to strike out batters. He’s 21 now, was left off of John Sickels’ Top 20 Twins prospect list, and his ceiling according to most is an MLB innings eater. The most productive player from the deal is Carlos Gomez, who posted a 2.4 WAR in 2008 from his defensive prowess, but has struggled to remain healthy and effective. His WAR in 2009 was 0.6, in 2010 it has been 0.3.

In terms of my Castillo point, I’m talking about total WAR contribution over their term with the Mets. Valentin’s 2006 is by far better than any single season of Castillo’s, however Castillo has contributed 3.7 WAR in a Mets uniform, while Valentin contributed 3.4.

by METSMETSMETS on Jul 10, 2010 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions

It's true that Guerra and Gomez were ranked high

but it was all projection with them. Gomez was rushed crazily through the minor league system (thanks Tony B) and I was happy when they dealt him because I saw him as a really flawed player (other than the good defense and speed). I liked Guerra but he never really put up any numbers with the Mets, whereas Mejia has dominated Short Season leagues and A+ ball. Look at Guerra’s numbers now…yuck.

I looked at that deal as dealing 4 “names” for Santana. They didn’t deal any actual “prospects” who could turn into useful, rounded major leaguers.

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by Steve Schreiber on Jul 10, 2010 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions

yeah Guerra was more like something in between Familia and Meija

he was younger than Familia is now so there was probably more projection but he never put up the numbers above A- ball that Meija did.

I want Jerry Manuel fired now, not three years from now. That is my stance.- John Peterson

by Gina on Jul 10, 2010 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions

humber was no longer thought of the same as when we drafted him

guerra hadn’t progressed as far as mejia has
we saw gomez live and had a good feeling of what we were giving up, speed and defense and poor everything else as a result of being rushed

I like Ike

by astromets on Jul 10, 2010 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Looking at his trade history

he made some AWFUL trades as the Expos GM. Traded away Jason Bay for Lou Collier, and that infamous Lee Stevens, Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore and Brandon Phillips for Bartolo Colon trade.

That sucked. I would’ve been firmly against his hiring in hindsight, although he does have a very good winning tenure as the Mets GM.

Some more deals looking at his history:

Mike Jacobs, Yusmeiro Petit and Grant Psomas for Carlos Delgado (Two replacement level players and one who never reached the majors in exchange for Delgado, who gave the Mets two very good seasons in 2006 and 2008)

Gaby Hernandez and Dante Brinkley for Paul Lo Duca (With Piazza gone the Mets needed a catcher. Lo Duca put up a 4.3 WAR in his two seasons as a Met, Brinkley is 28 and has yet to reach the majors, Hernandez is 24 and can be a back of the rotation starter at most. Still in AAA now for the Mariners)

Corey Coles and Ryan Meyers for Angel Pagan (Pagan!)

by METSMETSMETS on Jul 10, 2010 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions