If You Could Dump One Mets Contract
by Eric Simon on Aug 10, 2010 6:00 AM EDT
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PrintEven before Adam Rubin laid it out (as some other before him have), I think everyone probably knew that the Mets had already spent a lot of 2011 money. Next year's books have some $120 million on them and we still have seven weeks of baseball to play in 2010. Here's the guaranteed damage.
| Player | 2011 Salary |
|---|---|
| Jason Bay | $16.0 million |
| Carlos Beltran | $18.5 million |
| Luis Castillo | $6.0 million |
| Ryota Igarashi | $1.75 million |
| Oliver Perez | $12.0 million |
| Jose Reyes | $11.0 million |
| Francisco Rodriguez | $11.5 million |
| Johan Santana | $22.5 million |
| David Wright | $14.0 million |
| Total | $113.25 million |
Notably absent are raises to Mike Pelfrey, Angel Pagan, and R.A. Dickey, plus some kind of salary to another fifteen or so players. Thankfully absent are John Maine, Alex Cora, and Jeff Francoeur, none of whom is likely to afflict the 2011 payroll with the disease of his sunk cost (Oliver Perez is another story altogether). That's easily $130-140 million without spending anything substantial in free agency, which can't leave the Mets with much room to pursue big-ticket players on the open market. It doesn't mean they can't find impact players who fly under the radar -- like Dickey and Hisanori Takahashi this year -- but it probably means they won't be shopping in the Cliff Lee, Javier Vazquez, or Victor Martinez aisles. Mrs. Met probably won't even let them look at those aisles.
The reality of the team's financial situation will unfold in the coming months, but forget all of that. What if we could augment reality and unburden the Mets of one awful contract? They have lots of awful contracts so picking just one might be tough. Here's a quickie analysis of each. Contract details courtesy of Cot's Contracts.
Johan Santana. 2011:$22.5M, 2012:$24M, 2013:$25.5M, 2014:$25M club option ($5.5M buyout).
That's $77.5 million guaranteed, and I'm assuming the $5.5 million 2014 buyout because there's almost no way 35-year-old Santana will be worth anything like $25 million. Dumping this contract will rid the Mets of their highest-paid player for the next three years, but also a pretty darned good pitcher. Not really great anymore, but still quite good. Is "quite good" worth "crazy awesome" dollars? How much better will Santana be than, say Vazquez, over the next few seasons, especially considering Javy will cost something like half (or two-thirds) of a Santana?
Jason Bay. 2011:$16M, 2012:$16M, 2013:$16M, 2014:$17M club option ($3M buyout)
Yikes. That's $51 million guaranteed plus, what else, a vesting option for 2014. Bay has underperformed this season and is currently on the disabled list, but he has been a four-to-five-win player in three of the prior four seasons and there's a pretty good chance he can return to an age-regressed version of that guy. Is that going to be worth $16 million a season? Maybe not, but it could be close for a little while.
Oliver Perez. 2011:$12M
Just one year remaining on the deal, but the mere sight of Perez strikes most Mets fans with baby-punching apoplexy. That alone could be worth jettisoning Perez's contract, to say nothing of the $12 million the Mets will save. On the other hand, it's just one year and the Mets could still rid themselves of Perez's wretched carcass by simply cutting him and eating the salary.
Francisco Rodriguez. 2011:$11.5M, 2012:$17.5M option ($3.5M buyout)
The $15 million guaranteed looks bad, but it'll look even worse if Rodriguez's 2012 option vests. Rodriguez is a fine pitcher who is among the most valuable relievers in baseball this year. Whatever dyspepsia he induces in onlookers may be soothed somewhat by the knowledge that he's still better than the great majority of "closers" in the game, and more so if we only consider who might reasonably be available to replace Rodriguez. Then again, the specter of paying $17.5 million for a relief pitcher in 2012 gives me agita something fierce.
Carlos Beltran. 2011:$18.5M
He may be the cause of all that is wrong with the world, but he's also one of the best position players the Mets have ever had. If we can avoid letting emotion cloud our better judgment, we can say that Beltran will be 34 next year, has wonky knees, and is in line to earn $18.5 million. Angel Pagan's emergence as Carlos Beltran Lite is a valuable hedge against Voltron's continued dissolution, and would certainly make life after Carlos more agreeable (i.e. worth living). And if we're being honest with ourselves, how long can we stubbornly ignore those who peddle their new-age nonsense about Beltran's negative energy dragging down the second-half Mets?
Maybe Luis Castillo could be added to that list, but he's neither as offensive nor as unproductive as Perez, and at a cheaper price to boot. It's a tough choice, with so many eminently dumpable contracts. What say you?
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wow
This is depressing. Obviously people will say Perez (he totally stinks) or Beltran (because he has one year left anyway), but what difference will it make? We lose with these guys now. Surrounding them with a batch of AAAA players to meet payroll just promises more misery. More evidence that you-know-who did not have a plan. We need a restructure, not a salary dump. Someone has to sit down and consider a master rebuild. If people think New Yorkers won’t wait for it, that it takes too long: I give you the last 4 years.
Jason Bay
Overpaid, aging, just suffered a serious head injury, and his presence prevents us from going after Crawford.
There is no hope.... there is no future....there is only GRISSIONZ
The 2010 Mets- Hey, we may suck, but what did you expect?
overpaid but 1 season does not make a contract
Beltran had a horrible 1st season, and while Beltran gets more than he is worth. he has played a lot better since his first season.
You can not get upset over an injury like Bays. I mean we all work and could suffer some sort of crazy injury like that. He didn’t do anything stupid, he made a play. I hope he is ready for next season
by Rickfansince76 on Aug 10, 2010 6:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Beltran was also 27 when we signed him
Bay is already 31, and that’s a lot of years left on his contract.
You don't cheer for the Mets. You drink for the Mets.
Agreed
I’d dispose of Bay’s entire contract. I would just let Ollie’s contract run out since he is not making a major impact to the wins loss record at the moment since he has only pitched 3 inning over the past 3 months
I think the Ollie problem is lost opportunities.
Sure, he’s not doing much, but for his money we could have a decent 2B and a good pitcher thrown in to boot.
by MookieTheCat on Aug 10, 2010 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions
The problem is
that, honestly, Minaya wouldn’t know how to go out and get a decent 2b and a good pitcher. He seems to have had 5 mil at the end of the offseason, and instead of getting a decent 2bman he went after Bengie Molina.
Instead of getting Kelly Johnson he got Alex Cora. Instead of getting Joel Pineiro and Orlando Hudson and (insert name of $8m OFer here) he got Jason Bay and Jeff Francouer. Instead of Orlando Hudson he got Jeff Francouer. I’ve had to realize that it won’t matter whether the Mets budget next year is $127m or $134m or $138m. Minaya and the Wilpons won’t know how to spend it. A GM who thinks Francouer and Jacobs and Cats and Matthews are real baseball players is only going to get his team to the postseason if he gets very, very lucky. Minaya isn’t very, very lucky.
easily Perez is worst, over Castillo
at least Castillo can be a decent back up. He does give a professional AB as far as making contact and can mentor the young Tejada or whoever else in how to play. He did play hard throughout his career.
Perez offers nothing, and is double the cost. I think many of us were scared of a 3 year deal when it happened. I was upset we didn’t sign Lowe. If I remember right it was basically because he wanted an extra year, we offered 4 and he wanted 5.
to defend Omar (!)
Lowe turned out pretty bad. but there was no rhyme or reason to even want oliver perez back, let alone at the stupid contract Omar offered him.
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
by feslenraster on Aug 10, 2010 9:50 AM EDT up reply actions
agree Lowe hasn't been great
but he hasn’t been awful
335 IP in the last 2 seasons with 26 wins with 4.55ERA
compared to Ollie’s 109 IP and 3 wins with a 6.77ERA
I would clearly rather have Lowe’s contract..plus Lowe is movable while Perez is impossible to move
by Rickfansince76 on Aug 10, 2010 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Beltran's last season
wonder if he is healthy, if he stays with the Mets. I think he does, I bet if he is healthy he signs for a couple of more years
I think
the Mets would be insane to extend him. They have him for one more year. It may be productive. But he will never be healthy enough for me to extend him if I am the met GM. Knees do not reconstitute themselves. They probably cannot trade him unless he finishes strong and they offer to pay half his salary to a contending team; but that would be a consideration for me.
The Branche Rickey axiom still holds true;;;;;
unload a guy a year early rather than a year late. The mets never do that.
Updated Rickey Axiom
Might as well keep them a year too long then deal them to the Mets. They won’t notice.
I think Beltran's deal speaks volumes.
As a few people have pointed out, he was 27 when he signed. He had good numbers (with the exception of his first season) but seemed to be getting injury-prone over time. The time to shop him was in 2009 as soon as it became apparent the Mets weren’t going anywhere. But yeah.
by MookieTheCat on Aug 10, 2010 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Bay or Santana
all the other ones will end pretty soon. I’d probably go with Bay but I imagine by the 6th and 7th years Johans will be awful.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
Bay
I agree with those 2, since they are longer. The Ollie pain will end relatively soon. I do think Bay can bounce back, but I think Johan will deliver closer to his value. I just see him as always outperforming his peripherals in his career, advanced metrics be damned (low hr/fb rates, high IFFB rates, fairly consistently, so maybe he just keeps flipping a coin and it comes up heads but shoot me, i don’t think it is completely random). And he seems to be getting picking it up now the more time elapses since his shoulder injury. The recent pick-up of the Ks in his last couple of starts has brought out the pollyanna in me.
I would say Bay
because you can always use good pitching.
Santana may fall from being a top 1-2 starter… but he prob will not be so bad he cant be considered an overpaid 3. That, with the fact that a pitcher like Santana can actually help young pitchers learn pitches and such is more valuable then an OF who wont be teaching young players a different way to hold a bat.
with only 3 OF spots and the fact they play everyday it would make more sense to rid yourself of the OF.
But yeah, wow… I didnt realize santana was around for so much longer.
ugh.
I am a fan of both the mets and knicks... so just kill me now.
overpaid, fine...
but 20+ million for a 3? the mets have to sit down and think seriously about when they will actually be good again. Santana is marketable, to an extent. I would say they have to be honest with themselves but the Wontpons don’t know the meaning of the word. And Omar would have to lie just to hang on. See? Hopeless without major changes at the top.
im just saying
if I have to choose between an overpaid meddling OF or an overpaid meddling SP, I would choose the SP, especially if he was once considered one of the best in the game… because at the least he can move to the back of the rotation. you cant really put an OF in the back of the OF (maybe if he was losing his bat was a wiz when it came to D…but that is def not the case here). Things like helping young guys harness their changeup is somewhat valuable.
I am a fan of both the mets and knicks... so just kill me now.
Why?
You think he can’t learn a knuckler?
by MookieTheCat on Aug 10, 2010 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Not if someone could teach him...The 2-speed knuckler....
I wonder who could do that.
by MookieTheCat on Aug 10, 2010 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions
can we please finally stop with this "K-rod's ridiculous vesting option" talk?
he’s already guaranteed $15M after 2010, and the option 2010 is $14M. I’m all for calling the contract ridiculous, but the option itself is not that bad. It’s $14M option, not $17.5M.
wait what
1. 14 million is definitely that bad for a guy who’s not even a top ten closer, and even if he was a top ten closer he’d damn near better be able to throw 110 relief innings a year to be worth that. 2. not only is he not a top ten closer they don’t even use him correctly so we’re paying him 14 million to do absolutely nothing in like 50% of high leverage situations. 3. The fact they gave him a buy out doesn’t make the ridiculous vest less ridiculous, if it vests we’ll be paying him 17.5 million which is a MASSIVE number for a starting pitcher, let alone a middle of the pack closer.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
the buyout is already part of $37M,
so the option really is only for $14M. And reading through your comment, it’s clear that what you really don’t like is: (1) paying any closer $13-14M/year, (2) contract backloading. So in fact, it’s not the option itself that you don’t like.
actually, i dunno.
I would still probably put him in top ten territory.
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
yea
what 10 closers are definitely better. I don’t like him, at all, and I wish the Mets hadn’t given him that contract, but he is having an awesome season this year.
2009 Did Not Happen
just active right now?
jenks
wilson
rivera obviously
marmol
broxton
wagner
bell
then guys like K-rod probably come into play.
and the thing is, he’s really not having an awesome year at all. It’s awesome by his standards but if you go and look at other relievers numbers, most of the ones considered elite are WAY better, and have been better really since 08. If you even just go look at the numbers for relievers on fangraphs in most categories he’s WAY down, because most top tier relievers have his type of numbers or better. If you just look at it in the context of his career it looks awesome, in the context of relievers as a whole, it’s nothing to write him about.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
Jenks hasn't been awful his defense has
and he’s been better across the board than K-rod in everythng but ERA, even posting a lower hr/9 rate.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
and with that
you have to be somewhat encouraged that every single one of his numbers have improved this year.
I am a fan of both the mets and knicks... so just kill me now.
Overpaying for a closer is bad, BUT:
1) His WAR value is reduced because he isn’t used properly. Fangraphs WAR accounts for half of leverage for closers. Jerry using Ollie instead of him in tie games or giving him “finished games” low leverage situations impact his WAR value. However, the average Leverage Index of a closer is about 1.8 and Frankie’s is 1.96 so far. We could argue his pLI could be even higher.
2) We are not playing the postseason. If we were, he would be pitching more innings and also higher leverage innings.
3) The 17.5 option certainly is and looks bad, but we should analyze the whole contract:
3/37 (option doesn’t vest) = 12.3m/year
4/51 (option vest) = 12.75m/year
So, if the same contract wasn’t backloaded, it would appear less turrible.
He is still overpaid for his WAR contribution, but we shouldn’t focus only on the 17.5m option .
In lobby campaign for Chris Carter.
Where did you read that the vesting option is $14M?
Everywhere I’ve read states it at $17.5
it's $17.5M "option" or $3.5M buy-out
hence, the extra money for 2012 is $14M. The $3.5M buyout was already counted in the $37M guaranteed contract. It really is a $37M for 2009-2011 plus $14M option for 2012.
If the option vests he gets $17.5M for the 2012 season
So that’s what the option is worth. I’m not sure what your point is.
while I agree that this is in part open to discussion,
I really do not agree with your interpretation. Since the $3.5M has to be paid anyway, it’s just a back-loaded portion of the $37M / 3years guaranteed contract. You can think of the contract being signed for $12.33M per year over 2009-2011 and $14M vesting option for the year 2012. Or, a $51M for 4 year with a built-in insurance for 4th year.
Why would I want to think that?
His contract doesn’t say that, it says-
2009:$8.5M, 2010:$11.5M, 2011:$11.5M, 2012:$17.5M option ($3.5M buyout)
There’s nothing to interpret. Its black and white.
and yet,
the black and white says that he is guaranteed $37M for pitching for the Mets in 2009-2011 and can obtain additional $14M for pitching for the Mets in 2012. The rest is just obscured by ridiculous backloading of his contract.
Just to clarify
Even if the option vests for 2012, the Mets can choose to buy out his 2012 year for 3.5 mil?
No.
If the option vests, the Mets can’t buyout him.
If the option doesn’t vest, the Mets have to pay him 3.5
“Rodriguez receives $3.5M termination buyout if 2012 option does not become guaranteed”
The vesting option is not really a club option.
In lobby campaign for Chris Carter.
No
The option vests with 100 games finished from 2010-2011 and with 55 games finished in 2011. We have no option to decline it if he meets those numbers and is deemed healthy by doctors.
That's what I thought
The explanation above made it seem like the club had a buyout option. Then there is no other way to look at it. If the option vests they owe Rodriguez $17.5M in 2012. It may only be a $14M outlay in what the Mets have to pay if they keep him, but if they decide try to trade him it makes a huge difference in how much a different team would have to take on.
might be a good guy to hold on to for a mid-season deal,
but Omar does not know how to do those.
K-Rod
Perez is the easy choice because he is terrible but the vesting option on K-Rod is crippling.
The saving grace
As long as he racks up “saves”, there are enough GM’s that might want an “established closer” and would be willing to take him on for a year or half a year.
Baaaaaaah
Bagahagabahagabahagabaha! <——-Sound of angry.
by MookieTheCat on Aug 10, 2010 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I hear that Wright sells drugs to minors in dark alleyways
Consequences will never be the same.
by NetsMets4Life on Aug 10, 2010 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
That guy is so not intense and fiery.
He’ll never amount to anything but strikeouts!
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Im suprised more people didnt vote Santana
He is not going to be worth anything close to what he’s worth, and he is regressing big time.Think of what the Mets could do with almost 80 mil…..On second thought dont think of that, the current FO would mess it up. Ugh
by SFloridaMetsFan on Aug 10, 2010 8:46 AM EDT reply actions
Santana
Is still the best player in the bunch by far and while he probably won’t be as valuable as his contract, he’s likely to still be a valuable contributor to the team going forward.
by DannyMetsGeek on Aug 10, 2010 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions
he's the best player
and (sans Bay) he’s also owed by far the most and will have an impact the longest, as much as we all hate Perez he’ll be gone after next year. In 2 years who knows how much more Santana will have declined, and I think at that point we’ll still owe him something like 2/50.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
Yeah if he's regressed this much in 3 years
what’s it going to look like in 2012/213?
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
Agreed. I voted for Santana simply because
I don’t think he’s going to be worth $26.5m more than Bay over the next three years, though he’ll probably be at least $26.5m more fun to watch than Bay.
i like how this article assumes that the french will not be a sunk cost next season
clearly mr. simon has more faith in this team than i do.
with cora gone they need the french more than ever!
The poll has Bay listed at 2/51, but it should be 3
Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...
by Stephen Schmidt on Aug 10, 2010 9:28 AM EDT reply actions
I wish
they could dump beltrans and bays salary and use it to rebuild this team for 2011(ollie is the obvious but we’re stuck with him for another year
an easy choice: Perez
for too many reasons to count, but mainly because somehow Omar Minaya fooled himself into thinking there was any talent left in Oliver Perez.
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
Santana gets too much crap . . .
He basically has never had a season with worse than a 130 era-plus. There is no reason to believe he won’t be a 4.5-5 WAR pitcher for the next several years. He is not just a thrower, he is a pitcher. By comparison, Ollie is not a pitcher, no longer a thrower, and appears to be a selfish prick.
Not unless you count
the fact that he hasn’t been a 4.5-5 WAR pitcher since 2008. And that he’s older now. And that his fastball is even slower than it was then. And that his strikeout rate continues to decline.
So, yea, maybe.
3-4 WAR pitcher
As long as Santana stays in that zone, I don’t think we can have a huge issue with his salary. At the end of the day, this is a big market team and one that should be able to pay a premium for someone that valuable without impacting their ability to fill out the rest of the roster. It’s is much more demoralizing to roster construction when you are paying a significant amount of money to someone who is barely replacement level or below replacement level, because it is a lot easier to fill in roster spots with players that are at least league average or thereabouts.
by DannyMetsGeek on Aug 10, 2010 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Actually, he is a 5 WAR pitcher.
2009 he was on pace for 5 WAR, but because of injuries pitched only 166 innings at 3.6 WAR. This year he is at 3.8 with just under a third of the season left.
Injuries count though
and are a factor for an aging pitcher. Also, in 2009 he only had 2.8 fWAR over 166 innings.
I think fWAR underrates Santana
His career ERA is 3.11. His career FIP is 3.39. Career xFIP is 3.49.
Baseball Ref WAR uses ERA for pitchers, and some kind of adjustment for the team’s TotalZone numbers. It’s a little wonky, but I think his WAR is somewhere between FanGraphs and Baseball Ref.
Also, Statcorner WAR had Johan at 5.6 in 2007, 6.1 in 2008 and 4.1 in 2009.
by James Kannengieser on Aug 10, 2010 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions
He generates tons of infield flies. Those are "outs" 98.5% of the time and have run values almost like strikeouts.
Statcorner’s WAR is based on tRA, and that accounts for IFB effects.
I guess that’s the problem when FIP doesn’t account at all for batted ball types and tRA takes into account imperfect batted ball classification (LD and FB).
In lobby campaign for Chris Carter.
by Michkin on Aug 10, 2010 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
yeah it's also why a lot of pitchers gets overrated by FIP
it pretty much assumes all non true outcomes are luck based.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
Good command and a great changeup
will make for a long career unless he gets injured. I think he can be effective even if his fastball drops to 88 or 87.
by TheBigStapler on Aug 10, 2010 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
As long as he stays in that zone
considering how much he’s declined peripheral wise just the last 3 years why would we expect him to stay in that zone 3 years from now?
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
This is why I voted for Santana
It is a gigantic amount of money that could be spent more efficiently somewhere else.
pitchers don't always continually decline
especially not the good ones. Look at, say, Randy Johnson – he declined pretty rapidly, but at the end of his decline he was still a fairly effective pitcher for a few years. Maddux, Pedro, Glavine, Mussina – all guys who managed to stay effective after a late career decline despite not having nearly the stuff they had in their prime.
Santana isn’t worth what he’s getting paid right now, but I don’t see any reason why he can’t stay around the level he’s at right now.
2009 Did Not Happen
a great pitcher can learn how to pitch again
someone like santana can focus on control moreso then speed.
it would be better if he had more pitches, being a mostly fastball/changeup guy makes it harder…
but based on his Pitching IQ, work ethic and overall physical ability its not out of the realm that he can stay above avg (obviously not what he once was) for the remainder of his deal.
But he will still be overpaid.
I am a fan of both the mets and knicks... so just kill me now.
Yeah, If Santana Can Glavinize himself...
He may be worth it. It’s really a matter of whether he does or not. Also, in a sense it’s whether he can or not, as I have to imagine different pitchers have different mental and physical issues that might affect their ability to rework their game.
by MookieTheCat on Aug 10, 2010 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
He's a thinking pitcher now
having to adjust in-game because he throws 88-91 now. Not 90-93 like when he was with the twins. I think if he can stay at 88-91 for the duration of his contract hopefully he’ll be a 3-4 WAR guy. But if his velocity drops much more I think we’re completely screwed.
by SFloridaMetsFan on Aug 10, 2010 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions
Ollie: Costing us more than his salary
Oliver Perez has 9.2 IP of relief work. Fangraphs puts the value of that relief work as costing the Mets 0.6 wins, or $2.3m for every 10 IP
Let’s assume that the Mets do not release him until early June, as I fear they won’t, and instead use him like they are right now. He gets, say, 20 IP next year, that’s a loss of $12m salary plus $4.6m that a replacement level player could have gotten, or a $16.5m loss (accounting for pro-rata replacement level).
Yes
But consider that the Mets could just release Perez. Not that they would, but they could, in which case he’s only costing them the $12 million.
In other words, you could throw away one of the other contracts altogether and still cut Perez and pay his $12 million salary for him to pitch elsewhere.
Bay is the choice, I think
Perez is just one more year. It is an awful contract but it is almost over.
Santana is overpaid, but it’s difficult to find a pitcher that will give you the value he will the next three years on the open market. The last two years might be ugly, though.
One thing the last few years of free agency has shown is that you can get decent value at a corner on a short term deal. Also, the Mets have a plethora of interesting corner bats that could give them 75% of Bay’s production at the pre-arb salary scale.
by Jeffrey Paternostro on Aug 10, 2010 10:24 AM EDT reply actions
How anyone is voting for Ollie over Bay is mind-boggling
Ollie is absolutely atrocious, but after getting $12 million next year, that’s it, he’s done, he’s gone. And I have to think that the Mets fully understand (finally) that he is not going to be a significant part of the team going forward, and they can attempt to plan their rotation/bullpen for next year without him.
Bay, on the other hand, is going to be crippling our payroll for years while preventing us from upgrading one of the most easily upgrade-able positions in baseball. It was an awful contract when it was signed, and that’s when we all thought Bay would at least hit 30 HRs this year and next. People are gonna throw out the Beltran/Wright comparisons (one down year, then rebounded to career levels), but Bay is 5 years older than Beltran was in ’05, and 8 years older than Wright was last year. He was NEVER anywhere near as good as either of them, even in his best years. That is just an awful, awful contract.
2009 Did Not Happen
by cjmulrain on Aug 10, 2010 10:29 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
yeah but its just bucks
roster spots are more valuable to a team worth almost a billion dollars. if bay can still produce, and i think he can, than its not as big a deal. he could end up turning into a huge turd, in which case it will be as crappy a deal as OP, but i think the chance of that are much slimmer than most people are assuming. he hasnt been anywhere close to as bad as perez has been.
HELLO HELLO MR WILPON... BUY THAT MANSION. WE DONT NEED A CONDO.
no, but again, he's making a lot more money and he's signed for a lot longer
and he’s at a position that would be so much easier to upgrade. If you gave me this option two years ago, Ollie would have been the no doubt choice. But I think one more year of Ollie’s contract is way less damaging than 5 more years of Bay’s. Plus, if I were GM and I could magically be rid of one contract, that doesn’t mean I couldn’t also just buy out Ollie’s contract. He wouldn’t be costing MY team a roster space, it would just be $12 million flushed down the toilet. And I think it would be much better for the franchise to flush those $12 million down the drain than have Bay on the roster at that price for 5 more years.
2009 Did Not Happen
i think the problem is
it’s tough for us fans to know just how much of a burden these contracts are for the mets, and that hinderence on roster flexibility and free agent pursuit makes all the difference.
without a hard cap, and with huge revenue streams and an enormous market cap, my amateur guess is a roster spot for a below average player is more detrimental than an average player to good player getting paid 5 or 10 million more per year than what he ‘should’ be getting. if bay’s productive continues to tank, then i would agree that he’s the worst here. but im optimistic about bay, perhaps foolishly. and if there was a NFL style salary cap in MLB, yeah, bay, santana, frank rod, those types of contracts would be basically impossible in the first place. but if yovue got the money, no big deal.
and if the mets (ie the wilpons) DONT have the money (different than just not wanting to spend the money.) then bay is also worse.
HELLO HELLO MR WILPON... BUY THAT MANSION. WE DONT NEED A CONDO.
where is this "5 more years" thing coming from?
Isn’t Bay signed to a 4-year deal with an option? Doesn’t that make it a maximum of 4 more years? (And isn’t this, incidentally, why this deal still kind of looks like a better idea than Holliday’s?)
I think people are overreacting to what has, admittedly, been a terrible and unexpected year for Bay — but it’s an aberration. He’s still going to bounce back and be a good, well-above-average player. In a year he won’t seem nearly as overpaid as Frank the Closer.
we've talked about this before
It’s not like there was 100% consensus or anything, but if you go back to our preseason discussions you’ll find a lot of people happier with Bay’s 4 years of slight to moderate overpayment than Holliday’s insane 7-year deal, which is going to be a complete albatross in its later years. I think recentism is getting the better of people who complain about Bay’s deal, or mention it in the same sentence as Ollie’s — he’ll be a good ballplayer again, even if it’s next year, and worth a good chunk of the money if probably not all of it.
I just don't think Bay is a bad player
His HR/FB is at 5.1% this year. Last year it was 19.7%, and for his career it’s at 15.8%. If you take his batted ball distribution this year and give him his career HR rate, he’s at 19 for the year. If we say 6 of those additional HRs come from 2Bs, 6 come from outs, and 1 comes from a triple his slash line comes up to .276/.366/.509, and he’s got an OPS+ somewhere around 130. This should give him about 15 more batting runs, and his WAR would be up to 2.5. Not lighting the world on fire, but above average. (By the way, I really have no idea if I distributed those extra HRs appropriately, but it seemed about right to me.)
by yellomellojello on Aug 10, 2010 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions
the problem is this was the only year he was supposed to really be worth his contract
once normal decline sets in we’re screwed.
Plus just from watching him I don’t think it’s as simple as bad luck. I don’t really feel like he’s crushed that many balls that I would have expected to go out, he’s hit a lot of shallow flyballs and weak single/liners.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
i dont think any of the guys we are talking about are worth their contract
you could prob point to most people who have big deals and say they are not worth what they are getting paid.
While I would agree that Bay is the choice, I can see the thought that he should at least get 1 more year to see.
he HAS been good in his career. And both NYC and Citi field can be intimidating to a new player. I would think there is a good chance he can improve on this year next year.
But yeah, he will be overpaid unless he really really really turns it around.
I am a fan of both the mets and knicks... so just kill me now.
you HOPE
Minaya wouldn’t be stupid enough to re-sign Ollie….meh, he’s done dumber things before. Bay I don’t believe is really this bad, inconsistent, yeah, this awful? no.
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
by feslenraster on Aug 10, 2010 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Oliver Perez wins biggest loser award
he who induces both apoplectic and dyspeptic emotions in fans.
bay and santana have more years/bucks, making their contacts more burdensome, but OP is the only one clearly below replacement level. as long as santana and bay are playing around league average (ie good enough to start in the majors) i see much less of a problem with ‘over paying’ them. OP, on the other hand, is taking a up a roster spot that could go to someone who doesnt actively suck. he has go to go.
HELLO HELLO MR WILPON... BUY THAT MANSION. WE DONT NEED A CONDO.
Cutting a contract like Bay's would have an impact on signing future free agents.
Adding to the already extensive list of reasons they don’t want to come to this club.
In lobby campaign for Chris Carter.
BB-rod without a doubt here
ridiculous vesting option, and closers aren’t that hard to come by. We’re eating a huge chunk of payroll for a guy who comes in for one inning a couple times a week, if we’re lucky enough to even have the lead that many times. BB-rod has been decent this season, but no closer is worth that kind of money. I think Bay bounces back next year, and Carlos if given time to properly heal and rehab will be a good player (if they’d move him to a corner spot). Santana is still great, even though his contract is an overpay. Perez will be gone in a year anyway so why shed a crappy one year contract when we can shed a crappy multi-year contract.
Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?
by KeithsMoustache on Aug 10, 2010 10:57 AM EDT reply actions
im trying to convince myself that BB-rods option won't vest
and we’ll be rid of him when we’re rid of Ollie and Castillo.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
For the time being that would mean three contracts for $2012:
Santana, Wright, and Bay. Santana has $5m deferred, so we’re looking at $53m in commitments. That’s a hell of a lot of money for three players, but if Santana doesn’t regress too much (say, 4 WAR), Bay is at least tolerable (3 WAR), and Wright continues at roughly the level of last year and this (4.5 WAR), even that pessimistic scenario means the team’s paying 53m for 11.5 wins. Obviously it’s not desirable, but it shouldn’t be crippling—as long as Minaya has been replaced by a good GM.
And, hey, it’s a damned sight better than the money being paid this year for Castillo, Perez, Francouer, Bay, and Beltran; something like $58m for all of three or four wins.
I've heard it argued in Minaya's favor that at least he doesn't hand out Carlos Lee and Barry Zito
type deals, but I wonder how low on the list Minaya would rank if you totaled up the worst contracts for every team that summed to five wins. With nearly half their payroll going for three or four wins, I have to think the Mets would have a real shot at winning the ugly contest.
Oliver Perez, no doubt.
K-Rod is good. Santana is good. Bay is good. Oliver Perez is bad.
Simple as that.
Also, he’s not even one of those shitty players that provides a “clubhouse boost” or something, in fact he seems to be one of the few players whose prima donna actions can polarize a clubhouse and hurt the team in the process.
http://www.doublebobbyjones.com/ -Double Bobby Jones: a Mets blog
There's a difference between eating a contract and dumping a contract
Everything you said is a perfect reason why Oliver Perez’s contract should be eaten (ie: he should be released). No one is going to want him, you’re not going to get anything in return. Your only hope with Ollie is to drop him and limit his damage to your team there.
With the other guys, you at least have a chance to DUMP the contract (what the poll is asking for), since they might have some value to some team out there. Maybe some team will take a chance on Bay as a DH in a decent hitters park, or maybe some GM overvalues K-Rods saves, or maybe some big market team gets some major injuries and badly needs Santana. All of these are somewhat realistic possibilities. Dumping Ollie on any other team is not.
"I only wanted a few things out of life -- a wife, children, to play baseball and to hunt deer." - Turk Wendell
THIS
that’s the thing. I don’t think anybody is arguing that Perez should still be on the team. We’re arguing that Perez does not have anything close to the most crippling contract – his (and Castillo’s) should be easy enough for the Mets to just buy out and be done with. The other ones are going to hurt us for years.
2009 Did Not Happen
I don't think I want to trade Santana even if that's a possibility
because we’d basically be giving a huge “fuck you” to David and Jose by completely wasting their primes (if we haven’t done that already)
http://www.doublebobbyjones.com/ -Double Bobby Jones: a Mets blog
we'd be giving them a huge fuck you
by paying 23 million the next 4 years to a declining pitcher when it could be better allocated.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
'we" are wasting their primes? what have they won?
isn’t anybody starting to wonder if these guys are ever going to step up and lead this team? They get pass after pass. Yes the numbers look good. But I keep seeing strikeouts when I need hits and long streaks of nothingness from both.
what players don't you see those things from
and lead them were? The only person who’s ever lead a crappy team anywhere is Mike Scioscia.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
They can still find a way to perform well
in what some people thought were important series on the road. They screwed the pooch in Atlanta and Philly. At least good performances would have given some encouragement. Instead we get the whiffmaster rearing his ugly head. You are right, though. This is a crappy team.
So if you admit this is a crappy team
how can you expect Dubs and Jose to “lead” the team to more than 2 wins out of 6 against Atlanta and Philly, who are clearly superior teams?
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Wright and Reyes are two of 25
Please name a team in MLB history where two players have single-handedly won a championship for their team.
There is no hope.... there is no future....there is only GRISSIONZ
The 2010 Mets- Hey, we may suck, but what did you expect?
But
who said they had to? I just want them to come up big in “big” series once in a while. Even bad teams can have leadership. Leadership does not guarantee winning. It is more about character, about performing well under pressure.
leadership can take a flying leap
they aren’t a combat platoon going to war. theyre baseball players. you dont even need all that much team work in baseball. and either way, theyre getting paid. i dont want leaders i want producers.
HELLO HELLO MR WILPON... BUY THAT MANSION. WE DONT NEED A CONDO.
by kendynamo on Aug 10, 2010 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
I describe leaders as guys who perform in important spots
that is my point. Do it when it most needs to be done. Don’t just compile.
just curious
who would you consider a compiler?
i dont really want to start a clutch discussion (unless we’re talking about these ultimate bad asses) just genuinely curious as to who’s getting the unclutch, poor leadership rap these days.
HELLO HELLO MR WILPON... BUY THAT MANSION. WE DONT NEED A CONDO.
amen brother!
rec’d
I like Ike, I hate Jerry
Even after all that, I think it would be Castillo
The idea of him getting 6 million to sit at home or on the bench next year makes me angry, even more so than Ollie.
Beltran
If we can avoid letting emotion cloud our better judgment, we can say that Beltran will be 34 next year, has wonky knees, and is in line to earn $18.5 million
It’s a bit late to be realizing that. Too late to do anything about it. In the offseason, when I posted my AAOP which started with dealing Beltran for Brett Gardner, pretty much noone here liked the idea.
if we deal beltran we better get a whole hell of a lot more than brett gardner.
a ML ready player and a top prospect at minimum, IMO.
by Mike Clemente on Aug 10, 2010 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Beltran is a negative total value next year
A salary dump is about the most Omar could hope for in return.
as i assumed we all hate Ollie
nothing to see here move along.
Is 500 as bad as we are making it out to be?
I hate Philadelphia so much.
Jason Bay
has been a four-to-five-win player in three of the prior four seasons and there’s a pretty good chance he can return to an age-regressed version of that guy
fWAR
2006: 5.4
2007: -0.7
2008: 2.9
2009: 5.0
Average: 3.15
brWAR
2006: 4.1
2007: -1.0
2008: 1.9
2009: 5.2
Average: 2.55
Using the ZiPS projected wOBA of .372 and -5 defense, Jason Bay would be worth about 3.5 WAR per 700 PAs (or 3 WAR per 600 PAs) right now. At least three more years of Jason Bay at $16 mil per year at 32, 33, and 34 years old sounds like a terrible deal.
Yup but the question is
At least vs. Ollie, will Bay be worth $12 million less than he’ll earn? For all intents and purposes, whether Ollie’s on the roster or not, his contract is sunk cost (his negative value is probably even greater as long as he keeps a roster spot in that A) someone else could have it and B) he’s providing sub-replacement production from it). I think a case can be made either way—Bay is obviously riskier in that a complete collapse makes him a larger sunk cost, but there’s also a greater chance he has a year or two left in him where he’s worth about what he earns which would make up a solid portion of the difference.
Part of the reason I voted Ollie was simply because short term financial flexibility looks like a lot larger of an issue than long term, which to me makes the risk of Bay more palatable. Even past Ollie, you have Castillo and Beltran coming off the books after 2011 and a pretty decent roster already assembled for 2012, especially if Reyes is still around at something close to a reasonable price. Aside from 2B and RF and any injuries that come up, the remaining starting six are set with average or better players. Plus, RF and 2B should be two of the easier spots to fill internally by that time, as there are multiple advanced prospects for both positions already in the organization (RF: See Martinez, Duda; 2B: see Havens, Tejada, with Flores as a sub-optimal defensive but potentially impact making offensive wild card for either spot). With pitching, again, aside from any injuries that come up, three rotation spots should be locked with Johan, Pelfrey, and Niese. With the extra $25-30 million in spending money, that’s a pretty solid start to build a competitive roster from.
Then again, in hindsight, I would have almost certainly voted for Frankie, who is almost certain to be worth nearly $20 million less than he earns, but the thought process immediately went to Bay vs. Ollie.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 10, 2010 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
The Mets have just signed Isiah Thomas as special asssitant to Omar
Your post made me suspect this to be the case. Too much bloat.
by MookieTheCat on Aug 10, 2010 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Easy now
What does my opinion have to do with front office personnel decisions?
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 10, 2010 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Nononono..
Just the obv comparison between next year’s Mets being saddled with a number of bloated contracts that inhibit restructuring and the case Isiah’s Knicks, and the years of “who’s coming off the books?” questions. It’s a bad question to have to ask very often.
by MookieTheCat on Aug 10, 2010 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Ah fair enough
My bad, wasn’t sure exactly what you meant. Can’t say I disagree with that. The difference is that the financial restrictions in this case are either self imposed, artificial, or a legitimate result of bad business, which sounds bad, but at least there aren’t the two trumping priorities of scrapping to stay within a salary cap and keeping butts in the seats at the same time.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 10, 2010 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions
rec'd, well said
I agree with your rationale entirely.
I went with Johan actually,
but I need to think about it more. I think Johan would be worth roughly $8 mil less then he’s getting per year (at least).
by EtSuKe on Aug 10, 2010 8:31 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
My thinking is that I don't think ANYTHING should be off the table
but I don’t want Omar and Jerry sitting at the table. Obviously we would have to convert one or two of these regular players contract into several (or more) new contracts since we know the wilpons aren’t adding and are probably lowering the overall spending. So I say everybody goes into the hat.
i really hate ollie the most and want him gone
but he only has one year left and should just be released. my top 2 are jason bay then k-rod. i know k-rod has been good statistically even though he is a heart attack machine, but that vesting option is very scary and possible. and, since there is no other closer like mo, i dont think we should be spending even as much money as we are currently on a closer. in fact, i would just want a group of very good relievers to play by a bullpen by committee. i always hear managers say they want defined roles but i would tell them ‘look, you are on this team and are asked to be a team player and pitch the best you can when asked. the better you find yourself pitching, the higher leverage situations you will be in.’
as for bay, syler said it best above, he is aging (quick) and not likely to be worth anything near what we will pay him for most if any of the seasons
I like Ike, I hate Jerry
that said
How about this?
they are ALL crippling contracts and should be eaten and dumped!
Oliver Perez is still the worst, because he contributes NOTHING, he’s certainly not a good clubhouse presence. With Bay and K-Rod at least they pretend to care and give it their all. OP just dogs it, sucks and STILL complains.
this piece of sewage holds the Mets hostage and refuses to go the minors and or learn how to pitch.
that’s why OP’s contract is way worse, nothing worse than an overpaid waste of roster space who complains.
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
Baby punching apoplexy?
That’s hilarious! Mr. JetBlue was probably heading to this condition if he hadn’t slid to freedom! Wonder if he is a Mets fan?
So many good (or bad, depending how you look at it) choices
It’s hard because this is kind of a “transitional” year for Santana and Bay. It’s only Bays 1st season here and Johan is coming off surgery last season. If Santana can close out the year with nice numbers, it makes his future look that much brighter. If Bay can turn things around next season, it makes his contract look that less “albatross-y”. I’m not even going to consider Ollie because it’s only 1 more year and he should be DFA’d anyway.
I think I have to go with Krod. Yes, he hasn’t been bad, in fact he’s been pretty good this year, but he’s definitely not elite (read Broxton, Soria, Rivera, Bell, or Wilson). On top of that, we’ll never get max value out of him because even the most free-thinking/SABER-inclined manager won’t use him as a “bullpen ace” and thus, inherently limit his innings and impact.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Huh. We all might be missing one kind of context.
Who is most likely to turn into an incredibly expensive, bottomless pit of suck?
Hands down that has to be Bay. He might return to the roster from the concussion and never hit better than 250/330/410. There’s at least a small chance he’ll be worth next to nothing. I don’t see that as happening with Santana or Rodriguez.
So if the point is to accept some level of overpayment but avoid crippling the team Bay’s has to be the contract to dump.
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