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Mets Community Prospect List 2010: #3

Welcome to the 2nd Annual Amazin' Avenue Mets Community Prospect List. Every poll will include eight candidates for the next spot on the list, as well as a separate group of testers.  Testers will be rotated into polls with each new installation, replacing each poll's winner and any name that's not getting votes.  After a few rounds, if a candidate on the ballot receives a decidedly low vote total , they'll be replaced on the ballot by a tester.  But for the first couple polls, I won't remove candidates with these low totals

With 40% of the vote, Fernando Martinez is the consensus choice for #2 prospect in the Mets' system. Of course, he's bordering on exhausting his rookie eligibility, so if/when his prospect status expires, I'll take him off the list. Replacing him in the poll is Steven Matz, who still has yet to throw a pitch professionally a year after he was drafted. Hopefully, he'll return from Tommy John surgery with a robotic arm. To recap:

  1. Wilmer Flores
  2. Fernando Martinez
  3. ???

The contenders: Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Reese Havens, Cesar Puello, Aderlin Rodriguez, Darrell Ceciliani, Juan Urbina, Matt Harvey, Steven Matz

Testers: Robert Carson, Cory Vaughn, Jeurys Familia, Brad Holt, Jefry Marte, Lucas Duda, Eddie "Ruff Rider" Kunz, Eric Campbell, Zach Lutz, Dillon Gee

As always, voice opinions for the next ballot spot in the comments, and vote away.

Poll
Who is the Mets' #3 prospect?
Kirk Nieuwenhuis
54 votes
Reese Havens
37 votes
Cesar Puello
0 votes
Aderlin Rodriguez
3 votes
Darrell Ceciliani
5 votes
Juan Urbina
0 votes
Matt Harvey
5 votes
Steven Matz
1 votes

105 votes | Poll has closed

This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions, reasoning skills, or attention to grammar and usage rules held by the editors of this site.

Comment 92 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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About the "injury prone" tag some prospects get, weren't Reyes and Pagan also labeled like that?

I understand that prospects who are hurt lose development time and might not come back producing the same, but what about those who play well after recovering from injuries?

In lobby campaign for Chris Carter.

by Michkin on Aug 11, 2010 3:15 PM EDT reply actions  

Tough to decide between Capt. Kirk and Havens

but I had to go with Havens because even if he has an average bat, he’ll be an asset at 2B.

Save Jenrry Mejia!

by Ogre39666 on Aug 11, 2010 4:23 PM EDT reply actions  

seriously?

kirks not there yet?

I like Ike, I hate Jerry

by astromets on Aug 11, 2010 4:24 PM EDT reply actions  

Depends on if he can stick it at CF

If he can than it’s a wash with Havens…. projected above average hitter at premium position.

Kirk is going to be the easy #4 though. I’d suggest adding Duda soon. The Voters seem to favoring the guys in AA/AAA as they probably should and we’re almost out of those guys.

by FrancoTAU on Aug 11, 2010 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'd suggest adding Familia

He may not have great control but he’s not getting TJ and has a contract.

Save Jenrry Mejia!

by Ogre39666 on Aug 11, 2010 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

and a good k rate

and good speed and will hopefully improve more next year.

i like A-Rod 5 or 6 though, he is a monster so far

I like Ike, I hate Jerry

by astromets on Aug 11, 2010 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

it seems our top 10 will have a lot of high upside guys

with a good shot at the majors. not as bad as people say

I like Ike, I hate Jerry

by astromets on Aug 11, 2010 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

just cause he is close to the majors

doesnt mean he is a better prospect than others

I like Ike, I hate Jerry

by astromets on Aug 12, 2010 12:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

I don't really know that I'd put us in the bottom half at this point.

Technically guys like Mejia, Davis, Tejada, Niese, Thole, and Fernando are no longer going to be prospects, but they are all extremely low service guys (at least 3 of whom will likely start the season in the minors next year). We’d definitely rank in the upper half of the league in “young talent” when those guys were added to the prospects we have.

Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...

by Stephen Schmidt on Aug 11, 2010 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

We're still loaded

Even with the graduations we’re still loaded with bats. Duda is leading the International league in OPS, putting up numbers for the season overall similar to what Matt LaPorta did in 2008-2009 (with similar peripherals).

And I was checking out BPs “peak translations” which project guys MLB peaks just based on the stats for this season, and their ages, and in the AA Eastern League, the Mets had 6 guys in the top 20 (over 50 AB), including Duda. No other team had more than 3.

And having seen all of these guys play, they all have big league bodies and tools. There are no Aarom Baldiris or David Bacani types here. They all look more like future big leaguers than Nick Evans does. Eric Campbell, maybe the worst athlete and the guy who gets the least attention of the group, reminds me physically of Mike Lowell.

And there are bats busting out at lower levels as well, with Ceciliani and Vaughn destroying the NYPL, and Puello breaking out lately in Savannah.

It would be nice to have some elite arms as well, but at least there are some high ceiling arms with potential there. Carson is pretty impressive to see, as is Familia, these guys just need time to refine their stuff. And getting Harvey signed will obviously help.

Overall, I think that may be near average still even after the graduations, despite being thin on pitching.

by acerimusdux on Aug 11, 2010 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

I'll be very interested to see a larger sample from Urbina (3/1 k/bb) and Harvey's debut

I think those two along with Mejia, Familia, and Carson give the Mets several fairly interesting arms.

Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...

by Stephen Schmidt on Aug 11, 2010 9:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

Even Holt

despite his flop of a season is still a high-upside guy and an interesting arm.

Save Jenrry Mejia!

by Ogre39666 on Aug 11, 2010 9:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

eh im not so sure

i imagine it depends on who you consider young talent, there are a lot of teams with a bunch of young guys, younger than Ike and Niese even, who have been up longer. Would you rank us above them (like the D-backs, Rockies, Dodgers)

mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon

by Gina on Aug 15, 2010 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

i mean just looking at teams without delving to deep into their actual farm systems

teams I think I would definitely rank behind us
Detroit
Phillies
Astros (lawl)
Giants
Yankees
and then maybe the Cubs and White Sox, I really don’t know enough about them.

And then teams I think would definitely rank ahead of us
D-backs
Rockies
Reds
Rays
Red Sox
Orioles?
Nats
and maybe Braves, though giving away Johnson and Escobar in one year might drop them below or around the same.

and then the rest I think you could make arguments either way. i think part of the problem is we seem to be low on true impact impact players that most of these other teams at least have one of.

mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon

by Gina on Aug 15, 2010 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't think I'd rank the Orioles or even the Reds ahead of us, necessarily.

They’re probably about even with us.

John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.

by squid92 on Aug 15, 2010 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

well his point was we have a ton of recently promoted

young players. And I don’t see how you could argue we have anywhere near more than the Orioles or Reds. Especially when you’re talking about impact young players. I mean Nick Markakis is still only 26 isn’t he?

plus Matuzsk, Tillman and Wieters, do we have anyone who comes close to one of those guys? Let alone all 3?

And I don’t see how we could possibly have any argument over the Reds.

mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon

by Gina on Aug 15, 2010 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oh, I thought we were just comparing minors straight up.

If we’re including younger major league guys than yeah the Orioles and Reds blow us out of the water.

by FrancoTAU on Aug 15, 2010 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah thats what I was saying

that if you’re looking at players under 25, including minors, or something there’s a ton of teams ahead of us.

mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon

by Gina on Aug 15, 2010 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

That lack of impact players is the problem.

The absence of them means a whole lot of wins the team needs to buy on the free agent market. It means the team doesn’t have a top prospect to offer for another team’s star.

It means Minaya sucks.

by Jack Str on Aug 16, 2010 5:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

agreed

producing 2 WAR players would have been fine 3-4 years ago when we had 3-4 all-star worthy players. Now we need some cheap 3-4+ WAR players if we want any chance of keeping up with the rest of the division, not to mention needing Santana and Pagan to keep up his production and Reyes and Wright to pull their heads out of their asses.

mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon

by Gina on Aug 16, 2010 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

eh I imagine most teams top tens are like that

ours is heavy on upside and low on production

mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon

by Gina on Aug 15, 2010 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

I voted for Havens

Thing is, I don’t think the Cap’n has the ceiling of Havens, who likely will be at least the next Rogers Hornsby.

by goquakers on Aug 11, 2010 4:43 PM EDT reply actions  

Gotta go with the Captain

I’d have voted for Havens if he could stay healthy at all.

May you be locked in a battle of wits against Jerry Manuel.

by BobbyV_Incognito on Aug 11, 2010 6:46 PM EDT reply actions  

Agreed

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 11, 2010 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Is it just me?

Or has Kirk gone from most underrated prospect in the system to perhaps the most overrated? That’s not to say I don’t like him, but he’s not a sure thing and his upside is above average regular. He reminds me a bit of where Davis was a year ago, with the extra defensive value offsetting the lower walk rate and ISO. He’s probably even a step behind since he’s not really a plus CF and his offensive game is quite a bit less polished. There’s not much chance he’d be an average major leaguer if he were given a job next year. I suppose a case could be made for him here just out of lack of better options, but I’ll take Havens’ upside even with the injury problems. I’d like to see some professional data, but I might even go with Harvey over Nieuwenhuis.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 11, 2010 10:08 PM EDT reply actions  

I agree with Havens over Kirk

To me, Kirk is a 15HR/20SB CF with average to a tick above average D in CF as a best case likely scenario whereas Havens (despite the injury bug) is a 25HR 2B with a decent to just above decent glove and speed as a likely best case scenario.

Save Jenrry Mejia!

by Ogre39666 on Aug 11, 2010 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed

Though I’d probably flip the homers and steals for Kirk. He’s more likely to add power and lose speed than the other way around and he hasn’t yet stolen 20 bases in a season, and this year his percentage has fallen off (he’s 13/20 this year after going 17/22 last year). Really the biggest difference I see in their offensive game is the BB% where Havens has a significant advantage. That bodes well for his ability to handle more advanced pitching. Havens probably has more power upside too, though that could change. Its mostly because Kirk has been pretty ground ball prone so far as a pro while Havens has had a much easier time getting the ball in the air. If Kirk learns to lift the ball more he has the strength and batspeed to put up solid power numbers.

The one thing Kirk has seemed to catch up with Havens on a bit is the platoon split, he’s handled lefties much better this year, while that’s yet to seem like a huge problem for Havens.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 11, 2010 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

The only thing really holding me back is the injuries.

Reese is my guy, but he’s really got to stay on the field.

John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.

by squid92 on Aug 12, 2010 1:11 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yup, definitely

If he’d stayed even relatively healthy and put up numbers the types of numbers he has over the last couple of years, he’d be a Top 50 prospect in all of baseball, maybe even better than that. Then again, if he’d done that, he might be the second best middle infielder in the organization right now and could have very well taken most of the ABs Tejada wound up with.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 12, 2010 1:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

I like Kirk's upside much better

Even if the second base thing works out, I can’t see Havens being as good there as Kirk is in CF. And then on offense, Kirk is just superior all around. Havens has the slightly better walk rate now, but I doubt even that will be true by the time they are in MLB.

Kirk is just the better all around athlete, bigger, faster, stronger, better pure hitter, and has as much power now already with more power potential left there to tap. Reese was the more polished guy out of college, but Kirk is the better player already, despite being a year younger and coming out of NAIA ball.

I like Reese, but there are still questions to answer on defense, I still don’t believe he’ll hit for much average, and his power is good but not great, especially for Citifield. If he could stay healthy, I’d have him top 5. As it is, he hasn’t been able to, while Kirk led the system in PA last year, and is 6th this year.

by acerimusdux on Aug 12, 2010 4:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

I completely disagree

Kirk may be the better athlete, but that’s not really the question, I’m a much bigger fan of Havens’ bat. I don’t know why you think Kirk will hit for more power, he has a career FB% of 30.9%, that’s not the mark of a great power hitter, while Havens is 46.9%, plus Havens has a better HR/BIA mark. So he lifts the ball more, and more of the balls he lifts leave the yard. And that’s not taking anything from LDs either, their respective LD%‘s are 14.9% and 14.8%. Which also leads me to question why there’s any real reason to believe Havens will hit less for average than Kirk will? Havens career K% is a tick under 20%, while Kirk’s never had a season under 20%. Their LD%‘s are pretty much identical. Maybe the GB/FB splits mean Kirk will have an easier time maintaining a higher BABIP, but that’s still a positive tradeoff for Havens if it means extra homers, and that’s much less likely to have a huge impact on average in the upper levels where infield defenses are tighter. And What makes you think Kirk will start drawing more walks all of a sudden? That’s one of the primary offensive skills you look for as a player develops, and Havens clearly has the better walk rate. And as for defense, there are just as many questions about Kirk. He’s not a plus defender in CF as is. He could very easily wind up a “tweener” type if his defense tails off and his power fails to develop much more—An above average corner outfielder with below average power and on base skills for the position. There’s little doubt Havens will stay on the infield somewhere (other than first base) and there’s every chance he stays up the middle. No matter where he winds up, it’ll be a position that takes less bat to play than a corner outfield spot. His only real downside has been inability to stay healthy. And while he may not be the athlete Kirk is, I still feel he’s displayed stronger skills across the board.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 12, 2010 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

You're leaning too much on stats

Why would we look only at career rates when comparing one guy coming out of NAIA ball vs. another coming out of a top college program?

And even then, overall performance is about the same, an .823 OPS vs. an .830 OPS. Strikeout rates are about the same, but while Reese had the higher HR rate, Kirk made up for it by hitting more extra base hits, 10.2% of Pa vs. 9.0% of PA.

You harp on flyball rates as a seperator, but Reese is not hitting that many more outfield fly balls. His overall FB% is higher mostly because he hits into way more popups.

FB% – IFF% = OFF%
47.1 – 12.6 = 34.5 Havens 2009
46.7 – 14.5 = 32.2 Havens 2010
32.2 – 02.3 = 29.9 Kirk 2009
35.2 – 05.7 = 29.5 Kirk 2010

As for walk rates, here’s Kirk:
9.0% – 2008
9.7% – 2009
7.3% – 2010

And here’s Reese:
11.3% – 2008
12.8% – 2009
10.0% – 2010

OK, advantage Reese. But those rates aren’t static either. Look at Kirks splits. I don’t have PA on the monthly splits, so I’ll use rates per AB:

7.7% April 2009
12.5 May 2009
10.1 June 2009
15.0 July 2009
9.0 August 2009
14.8 September 2009

5.7 April 2010
5.1 May 2010
7.1 June 2010
11.2 July 2010
11.9 August 2010

Once he adjusts to the level of pitching, I think the walk rate is fine. I don’t know that Havens is going to maintain the walk rates he had in A+ ball, and I think Kirk will continue to be at least up around 9% of PA, 11% of AB. That’s fine, comparable to a guy like Angel Pagan.

I’ll grant that Havens had more skills coming out of college, but skills can be learned. At this point, Havens has one advantage, a better walk rate. It’s not a dramatic difference though, and I really like Kirk’s all around game much better. Reese should be able to stay on the infield, but if hands and footwork were a problem at SS, they may be a problem at 3B or 2B as well. I think his hands will be fine, I think his struggles last year were partly just the adjustment to the pro game, but until he actually does it there have to be at least some doubts.

Seeing these guys last year, I though Kirk had easily the higher ceiling. I ended up ranking them pretty close, mostly because Havens had the higher pedigree coming in, and Kirk had pretty much come out of nowhere. So I think it was fair to say “let’s see him do it again”. Well, Kirk is doing it again, and Reese is injured again. I just don’t think they are that close right now.

by acerimusdux on Aug 12, 2010 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

...jesus

John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.

by squid92 on Aug 12, 2010 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

Back in mid-season form, I see.

May you be locked in a battle of wits against Jerry Manuel.

by BobbyV_Incognito on Aug 12, 2010 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

I would like to see some analysis on injuries and their predictiveness

because right now it’s kind of a guessing game. How much do you “penalize” a prospect for his minor league injury history (or a major league player for his injury history)?
If Havens’ defense troubles were mostly because of range and throwing, wouldn’t that be more worrying than if it were hands and footwork? I would think he could work on the latter much more.

by EtSuKe on Aug 12, 2010 7:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think some injuries are predictable, some aren't...

Ligament and tendon damage tends to return. I used to be a compoetivie breakdancer and as such I injured myself all the time. As life wore on some of those injuries became chronic. But a regimen of stretching and focused strenghtening—pilates of all things—has put an end to that. Like any other baseball stat injury history is not perfectly predictive. The problem I see with the Mets is it appears they are not proactive with soft-tissue injuries.

by MookieTheCat on Aug 12, 2010 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

This site was easier to read when you were M.I.A.

Now GTFO! I don’t have time to read all this shit.

by Evan_S on Aug 12, 2010 9:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Good argument

I agree with your general argument that the very best bats are likely to have the higher flyball and infield fly rates. The same backspin that really gives the ball some carry probably causes the popups when a guy misses by a bit. But I think you’re putting a bit too much emphasis on the point; it’s not that strong a correlation.

Kirk right now has a 47.3% GB rate for this season. Of the 200 hitters in MLB with over 200 PA, that would be 62nd highest, the 31st percentile. There’s nothing extreme about that, and it’s hardly a red flag. There are a bunch of very good hitters with similar rates. Some guys having good years with GB% from 46.5%-49% rates include Casey McGehee, Shin-Soo Choo, Torii Hunter, Ryan Braun, Magglio Ordonez, and Martin Prado. I just don’t see that putting too much a cap on his ceiling.

And I’m probably not quite as high on Reese’s ceiling. I think some are maybe taking the Chase Utley comps a bit too literally. I pretty much agree with John Sickels though:

Chase Utley is a career .294/.380/.518 hitter. Shave that down to .264/.350/.460 and that is what havens can be.

That comes out to about a .350 wOBA. Over 600 PA, that with -5 defense at 2B would amount to about +2.8 WAR.

As for Kirk, I think a .350 wOBA is also possible there, along the lines of Hunter Pence’s career line. Kirk had a .221 ISO this year in the Eastern League, 5th in total bases, after a .193 ISO in the FSL, leading that league in total bases. And now he’s in AAA still performing. However he’s getting there, it seems to work.

I agree that to be really good (as opposed to a lefthanded Hunter Pence), he needs to improve the walk rate. A guy who might be otherwise similar, except that he has the higher walk rate (12.2% of PA this year), is Ryan Kalish, likely the Red Sox #2 guy right now. Kahlish spent most of last season in AA though, I think Kirk is a bit behind him on the development curve. So he won’t rank as high as Kalish but I think he’s still in the discussion in the bottom third of a top 100.

by acerimusdux on Aug 12, 2010 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

great discussion

this is the kind of stuff that we can always use more of, good, informative prospect information as well as passionate, yet respectful debate. well done, i hope these prospect rankings continue to generate more of the same.

as for the discussion itself, i too have poured over nieuwenhuis’ high gb rates though i’d never heard anyone else mention them before so it’s really interesting to hear some more lively discussion on the matter. i really like the pence comp, never thought of that one but it really seems to fit (other than the opposite handedness).

i think overall i fall on the side of acer here, i take kirk as i don’t see their likely ceilings as that far apart but kirk is clearly more of a sure thing thanks to a much cleaner injury history. mark is right, kirk is suddenly being billed as a future star which i think is overrating him but on the other end the value of a solid major league contributor shouldn’t be underrated and i feel kirk is much closer to that end than havens, who i fell still has a higher likelihood of prospect burnout. i’m in agreement with mark though that havens can definitely reach a higher level and should not just be written off as it seems like many have (probably as a result of toby hyde getting that ball rolling). i feel we’re looking at #3 and #4 here which big picture isn’t a huge diference.

by Rob Castellano on Aug 13, 2010 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think the difference is I don't necessarily see strong evidence that Havens' batting average can't improve

That’s not to necessarily say it will, but I find it more likely that Havens can have a career .280 batting average at the major league level than Nieuwenhuis will have a career 11% walk rate. Havens’ K% in St. Lucie last year was pretty solid, 16.9%, it was his BABIP that was low. You could argue that it was a product of his high IFFB%, but it wasn’t really his BABIP on flyballs that was low, they were low on LDs (.686), and GBs (.214). On FBs, it was actually somewhat high (.214). If classification of balls in the air was a problem here, we might expect his FBBABIP would be high, because some LDs are getting called FBs. But that doesn’t explain the low BABIP on LDs, we would expect that number to be higher than average if there were a classification problem (obviously, IFFBs aren’t getting classified as LDs). You could also argue that his LD% was low and that lead to the low BABIP, but I don’t necessarily buy that either, that league and specifically the scorekeeper in St. Lucie are notorious for not classifying LD’s properly. His home/road splits support this to a degree, 9.7 LD% at home, 16.6% on the road, despite a .328 BABIP at home and .226 BABIP on the road. Its entirely possible his home LD% should have been as much as 10% higher.

Its tough to really infer a whole lot from this year because its such a small sample, but his K%, LD%, BABIP all spiked in the small sample. If the K% spike is shown to be more an indication of his ability and he can’t bring it back down under 20% down the line, I’ll be more inclined to reduce my take on his upside, but his K% was actually better in Binghamton (20%) than St. Lucie (27%) so its hard to really infer a whole lot. Its entirely plausible he would have continued to reduce his Ks as he continued to adjust to the level, but it could all just be noise. Either way, the small sample result was a much improved average. the BB% also dropped, but its not necessarily a shock to see a guy having so many hits fall in start hacking more. A little average slump could have ticked that back up.

Also, Kalish is considered more of a true speed threat and centerfielder if I’m not mistaken, no?

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2010 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Havens and Nieuwenhuis

Yeah, I do think Havens has the talent to be a .280 20-25 HR guy. I just don’t have a high level of confidence in that right now. I kind of feel like he has always been solid, but never quite lived up to expectations. He was a top HS bat back in 2005, alongside Smoak, then was pretty average for his first two college seasons. He shows flashes of being really good, but I need to see him sustain it with more consistency over a full season.

And Kalish might have a tic more speed than Kirk, he steals a few more bases, but I’m not convinced his defense is any better and he also has less power. Minor league career extra base hit totals:

PA 2B 3B HR
1590 70 11 40 – Kalish
1373 90 14 37 – Nieuwenhuis

by acerimusdux on Aug 15, 2010 3:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

Good Lord

Rec’d for length. And the fact that this was just the “jist” of the original answer.

If there's ever a riot at Citi Field and Oliver Perez was the starter, I started the riot.

by meigs1414 on Aug 13, 2010 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

Am I the only one

who sees a 6 paragraph post from Mark and recs it before I even read it? That formula hasn’t failed me yet.

Mark + multiple paragraphs = rec’d.

by nrmax88 on Aug 15, 2010 7:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

lol no i did the same thing

mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon

by Gina on Aug 15, 2010 8:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

I got half way

took a break, rec’d it, and finished the second half.

Save Jenrry Mejia!

by Ogre39666 on Aug 15, 2010 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Managed to finish it first

But I do enjoy long books.

May you be locked in a battle of wits against Jerry Manuel.

by BobbyV_Incognito on Aug 15, 2010 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

If healthy, Havens is a far superior prospect

but until he can stay on the field for an extended period, I have to go with Kirk. And Harvey’s not really an option in my book, I didn’t like the pick and with no professional experience, there’s no way I’d put him 3rd.

by yellomellojello on Aug 12, 2010 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks to Jerry and Jeff

he lost his rookie eligibility, so technically, he’s not a prospect even though developmentally, he is still very much of one.

Save Jenrry Mejia!

by Ogre39666 on Aug 12, 2010 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

Right

but that means he looses “prospect” status.

Save Jenrry Mejia!

by Ogre39666 on Aug 12, 2010 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

What a freakin' waste, huh?

Who knows? He could’ve been starting games for the Mets in September, if not for Tweedle Dumb and Tweedle Dumber.

by KranepoolRools on Aug 12, 2010 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Reading through these prospect lists I have one observation...

You folks know a lot more about the Mets than I do, and have a LOT of time on your hands :)

by MookieTheCat on Aug 12, 2010 5:00 PM EDT reply actions  

I'm sure all of us are pretty busy too, haha

John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.

by squid92 on Aug 12, 2010 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

well, you have an excuse

what else are you going to do under a bridge all day?

John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.

by squid92 on Aug 12, 2010 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

slight tangent, but i hate the RHCPs

maybe its just the association i have of them with obnoxious middle school kids i knew.

John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.

by squid92 on Aug 13, 2010 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah...

Who all were going to Lollapalooza 92 or whenever they played. Agree.

by MookieTheCat on Aug 13, 2010 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

haha, good eye

John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.

by squid92 on Aug 15, 2010 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

same bro

mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon

by Gina on Aug 15, 2010 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

I just follow the minor league game updates on AA

And read Toby Hyde’s stuff over at MetsMinorLeagueblog.com every couple days. Plus the occasional Keith Law, Sickels, Baseball prospectus blurbs that people link to on fanshots.

by FrancoTAU on Aug 12, 2010 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Daniel Murphy Should be added to this list

He has played only as many games in the ML as F!, is still quite young and could be a genuinely useful utility guy.

Now that Cora is gone the job is really his to lose.

Mets 2010 slogan; "a whole new level of stupid you were unprepared for."

by scott from peekskill on Aug 12, 2010 6:23 PM EDT reply actions  

He's spent more than 45 days on the active roster.

No way is he still a prospect.

John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.

by squid92 on Aug 12, 2010 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

Fernando's only played 32 major-league games.

Murphy’s played 204.

May you be locked in a battle of wits against Jerry Manuel.

by BobbyV_Incognito on Aug 12, 2010 6:46 PM EDT up reply actions  

I wonder if the FO has ANY plan for sorting out the wealth of borderline

corner guys, finding the ones worth keeping, and moving the rest in order to beef up depth at positions of need, like catcher, or centerfielder.

by Jack Str on Aug 13, 2010 4:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

Can I answer my own question, given I posed it over 48 hours ago?

Mets FO… plan?
Mets FO… plan?

Nope. Not seeing it. Dumb question.

by Jack Str on Aug 16, 2010 5:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

Gotta go with the Captain over Havens

Havens might be more useful since we have a glut of outfield types but I want to see a full season without missing significant time due to injury

"I reject your reality and substitute my own"
-Adam Savage

by blueandorange4life on Aug 12, 2010 7:32 PM EDT reply actions  

Duda's looking better and better.

He’s always had a good eye and a good OBP, and this year he’s putting up the kind of numbers I always expected from Fernando! during his breakout year (assuming he was going to actually have one). .308/.401/.593/.994 is a hell of a line, and Duda got better on moving to AAA. He’s never had the kind of power that you thought would turn into a 600 SLG, but while it’s high there’s nothing in his record that screams “fluke”.

I don’t have a very clear idea of what kind of major league career he might have, but I’m pretty sure the Mets don’t either, and August of a season where a team is out of it is a pretty good time to find out if the guy having the best hitting season at the upper levels of any Mets minor leaguer in the last five years can take those numbers with him to The Show.

The Mets may well need help in the OF and at 1B next year. Why not give Duda the rest of the season in RF and find out if he’s turned himself into the real deal?

by Jack Str on Aug 13, 2010 12:59 AM EDT reply actions  

Duda

Yeah Duda had everything but the in game HR power. It’s very hard to value guys like that, because power doesn’t peak until later, often emerging even ages 26-28, but with these 1B/LF types, it’s really going to make the difference in whether the guy is a stud or a dud.

Duda actually had a very nice year last year in AA, sans the HRs (only 9 of them). He never had much HR power, going back to college, but he’s a big 6’ 5" guy with good bat speed. I think he always has batting practice power.

But to see him now leading the IL in OPS, with numbers that look like Matt LaPorta 2008-2009, I’m not sure what to think. I think he is in my top 10 at this point though. That just looks like a big league bat of some sort.

by acerimusdux on Aug 13, 2010 8:23 AM EDT up reply actions  

More Duda

The other thing there, aside from the HR, is the steady improvement in strikeout rates. That suggests some real improvement there in either pitch recognition or swing/bat speed. Walk rates have stayed about the same (always very good).

SO% of PA
23.1% – A+ 2008
19.5% – AA 2009
15.6% – AA & AAA 2010 (13.7% AA, 18.3% AAA)

Even if he ends up more a 15 HR guy, I think he might be capable of a .330/.450 type line, .780 OPS. I’d like to see him replace Chris Carter on the roster, he’s younger and I think has more power and plate discipline than Carter.

 

 

by acerimusdux on Aug 13, 2010 9:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think Duda has a higher SLG potential then that considering the breakout power season he is having

As you said, his BB and K numbers are very good and improving. I think the keys for him are further power development, defense, and maybe keeping his average up in the ML.

by EtSuKe on Aug 13, 2010 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Maybe

I’m discounting him just a bit I think because he was never all that highly regarded, though the batting average and on base ability have always been there. It’s hard to tell though whether the HRs are entirely a breakout or a bit of a fluke.

And it is harder to do it in MLB. Also, Wright and Pagan are the only current Mets slugging over .450. I think Citifield could keep numbers down a bit.

by acerimusdux on Aug 13, 2010 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

he was actually INCREDIBLY highly regarded coming out of highschool

like top 15 prospect I think, as far as guys who went to college, and then had a disappointing career at USC and scouts loved the pick when we drafted him. he’s really not a Nick Evans/Dan Murphy type in terms of regard.

mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon

by Gina on Aug 15, 2010 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

His power spike really started in July of 2009

When he hit 5 HR, which was more than he’d ever hit in a month to that point at any level. That’s more than he’s hit in any month this year either except for July once again, when he hit a staggering nine bombs.

"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet

What a fool I was to defy him"

-HST

by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2010 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

I like Kirk over Havens for a few reasons

but I think Matt Harvey should be here.

I’ve noticed that prospects new to a system are often underrated by fans.

by T Pac on Aug 13, 2010 2:06 AM EDT reply actions  

Well they should be

They have high upsides but they may never make it out of A- ball.

by FrancoTAU on Aug 13, 2010 2:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

this

unless a guy jumps into AA ball there’s not a lot of reason to regard hm.

mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon

by Gina on Aug 15, 2010 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

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