Mets Community Prospect List 2010: #3

Okay, here was the jist: I’ll grant that the increase in walk rate this year is a fair point, but I think you’re overstating the relevance of the IFFB distinction. The real problem with Kirk is that he has such a high GB%. Its very unusual to have a guy who’s game isn’t heavily reliant on pure speed to have such a high GB% and remain productive. Its not nearly unusual to have a power hitter or even an all around pure hitter to have a high IFFB% as long as he’s not killing too many worms. I’m not sure exactly why this is, your argument makes intuitive sense, but it may be similar to argument that a high K% is okay for a hitter as long as he’s hitting for power, because strikeouts have a decent correlation to homers. IFFBs may also have a decent correlation to homers and other such positive outcomes (they certainly have a negative correlation with groundballs). A legitimate study on this issue would be interesting, but I don’t have one handy, so here’s my half assed version:

Here are the qualifying outfielders this year who have a GB% over 50%: Juan Pierre, Michael Bourn, Ichiro, Denard Span, Hunter Pence, Jason Heyward, Nyjer Morgan, Scott Podsednik, Chris Coghlan, Brett Gardner, Carl Crawford, Marlon Byrd, Austin Jackson. The only guys there that are really viable as comps for Kirk are Pence and Byrd. Byrd is having a career year and Pence is a pretty decent player. I think Pence is a pretty decent upside comp for Kirk. I’m not sure Kirk’s defense will be that good, but I wouldn’t rule it out either. Being left handed is also an advantage for the Cap’n. Pence has basically averaged a bit more than 3 WAR per year so far, I’ll by that as Kirk’s upside. Even still, its just not common for a guy who isn’t a real burner to be able to get away with a GB% over 50% and be a viable offensive threat from an outfield position, especially a corner. Kirk is fast, but he’s not in the class of most of the guys listed above. Heyward and Coghlan are the two others who aren’t true burners. Heyward can be thrown out because he’s so young and such an unusual case, while Coghlan has a surprisingly decent 6.2 spd score and just a .322 wOBA anyway.

Even if you open it up beyond outfielders there’s not much that changes. In fact there isn’t one qualifying full time corner infielder with a GB% over 50%. The remaining group is all middle infielders, catchers and utility guys. That may not have direct relevance, but it does say something about the relationship between non-speed based offense and GB%. You have guys in this group like Derek Jeter, Elvis Andrus, Skip Schumaker, Ryan Theriot, Howie Kendrick, Yunel Escobar, Jeff Keppinger, Hanley Ramirez, and Brandon Phillips, with the last two perhaps being the most promising cases for a player like Kirk. The two catchers—Yadier Molina and Russell Martin—are not significant offensive players.

Turning to guys with high IFFB%‘s, here are the qualifying hitters who have an IFFB% over 10% and a GB% below 40% (I use GB% because its tough to tell exactly what minor league players FB and LD%s are and its easier to just use GB% than add LDs+FBs): Clint Barmes (very extreme in both cases), Jose Bautista, Albert Pujols (career 13.4 IFFB% believe it or not), Carlos Quentin, Alex Gonzalez, Josh Willingham, Mark Reynolds, Carlos Lee (having a bad year but career rates both fit the same criteria), Jerry Hariston, Aaron Hill, Cliff Pennington, Aramis Ramirez (see Carlos Lee), Angel Pagan, Mark Texiera, Johnny Gomes, Jay Bruce, Adrian Beltre, Chris Young, Brandon Inge, Marco Scutaro, Jorge Cantu, Brian McCann. Two other marquee players who don’t have the ABs to qualify this year but who have had multiple productive seasons seasons that fit this criteria: Chase Utley and Carlos Beltran

There are lots of positive comps in this group and very few negative ones, especially when you consider only the ones who have above average power and walk rates—almost all (if not all) those guys are productive players. Even the ones who have low batting averages but good walk and power rates are productive hitters, though many of those are far more extreme than Havens (you see things like 15% IFFB and sub-30 GB%). The most apt because of position and medical record is probably Aaron Hill, though the offensive profile isn’t a perfect match. Hill had just one minor league season with an above average walk rate and he didn’t show the power until later in his career. Otherwise he’s never drawn many walks, so that’s really the big difference. Lets say Hill with more walks is an upside for Havens, with the injury risk accounted for. Even through the injuries and without the walks he’s been pretty similar in career value to Pence, both have career wOBAs between .330 and .333. Pence’s defense has been very good in RF, which I’ll buy for Kirk, while Hill’s has been about average, again I’ll buy it for Havens. That basically wipes the positional adjustment. So basically we’re back down to walks. If Kirk can keep his walk rate over 10% for a few more months (last year’s changes don’t look like anything more than noise, this year there’s a pretty clear progression, which could still be noise but is easier to accept as progress just because it looks more linear) and can hit lefties well for another season, I’ll start giving him a lot more credit, but until then, I’ll still take Havens.

And for the record, I was all over Nieuwenhuis last year, even while he was slumping in the middle of the season, I just think people are starting to think of him as an upper level prospect with star potential when I just don’t see that. I don’t think he’d be a top-5 prospect in most systems. I still think you could make an argument that Havens is Top 100 overall and that he even still has 5 WAR potential, while I don’t think Nieuwenhuis has that. He’s a safer bet, but not that much safer. The injuries are a big problem for Havens, but they don’t effect his upside all that much, more his risk potential, which is admittedly high, but when I’ll still generally favor upside over low risk, especially with a guy like Nieuwenhuis who isn’t virtually no-risk. I had Havens above Davis a year ago and I don’t really regret that thinking. Nieuwenhuis’ prospect value reminds me quite a bit of Davis’s a year ago, and while Havens’ value has dropped because of his inability to stay on the field, I think its shortsighted to assume its dropped off THAT much without any kind of serious, career threatening injury. He’s obviously not healing well, but there’s still no indication that its is any kind of serious medical condition or will require some kind of surgery to repair.

Also, my understanding of Havens’ defensive troubles were that they were mostly about range and throwing, not fundamentals regarding hands or footwork, but that’s mostly just based on things I’ve read.

P.S. trust me, this one’s shorter than the original lol.