Mets Community Prospect List 2010: #4
Welcome to the 2nd Annual Amazin' Avenue Mets Community Prospect List. Every poll will include eight candidates for the next spot on the list, as well as a separate group of testers. Testers will be rotated into polls with each new installation, replacing each poll's winner and any name that's not getting votes. After a few rounds, if a candidate on the ballot receives a decidedly low vote total , they'll be replaced on the ballot by a tester. But for the first couple polls, I won't remove candidates with these low totals.
With 52% of the vote, Kirk Nieuwenhuis is the consensus choice for #3 prospect in the Mets' system. Replacing him in the poll is Lucas Duda, currently rocking a 1.000+ OPS in AAA. Zach Dotson has been added to the testers. To recap:
- Wilmer Flores
- Fernando Martinez
- Kirk Nieuwenhuis
- ???
The contenders: Reese Havens, Cesar Puello, Aderlin Rodriguez, Darrell Ceciliani, Juan Urbina, Matt Harvey, Steven Matz, Lucas Duda
Testers: Robert Carson, Cory Vaughn, Jeurys Familia, Brad Holt, Jefry Marte, Eddie "Ruff Rider" Kunz, Eric Campbell, Zach Lutz, Dillon Gee, Zach Dotson
As always, voice opinions for the next ballot spot in the comments, and vote away.
This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions, reasoning skills, or attention to grammar and usage rules held by the editors of this site.
82 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
familia should be added to the next poll
"The one thing you don't want to do is hit a home run. That's a rally-killer." -Jeff Francoeur
He'll be added one of the next two polls, I think.
I was deciding between him, Duda, Familia, and Gee to put into this poll. I’ll probably add Familia next, and then Lutz…unless I change my mind or get a groundswell of support for a specific prospect.
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
I voted Matt Harvey
I would have Havens and Puello close, but Harvey seems like the best bet of the guys remaining to become a blue chipper in the next year, if things go right. There’s always some risk for pitching prospects, but Harvey at #7 overall will be getting the largest bonus the Mets have handed out since Pelfrey. Obviously there are some pretty high expectations there.
Has to be Havens
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
Havens - then it gets kind of close
Familia, Duda, and Ceciliani are probably the best of the rest IMO.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Duda is having a breakout year. At AAA. And he's not old.
Isn’t he leading the IL in OPS? How can that put him behind a guy like Harvey?
More Met insanity:
Rediscovering, over and over, with every game he’s in the lineup, that Tejada is not yet a major league hitter, while not bothering to find out if the best hitter in AAA is the real thing.
I don't really get the Harvey love either
He’s “projected” to be a Pelfrey-light type of guy and hasn’t even thrown a pitch for us yet (not to even mention receive a contract).
Save Jenrry Mejia!
That's what I'm thinking
he can’t be that great because there were rumors that Omar and Co. were debating whether or not to pass on offering a contract in order to get the protected draft pick next year. You don’t do that with a guy who has the potential to be anything more than a #5.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Where did you hear that?
I haven’t heard anything other than the Mets are expected to go down to the deadline with Harvey (as is Boras’s wont) and then get him signed. The Mets have the leverage here, he definitely doesn’t want to go back into the draft as a senior.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2010 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Heard it a while ago on a thread here at AA.
I can’t remember who the link was to.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
If they wanted a #5
they would have drafted Alex Wimmers.
Who is a solid pitcher by the way.
But they went for upside here.
by acerimusdux on Aug 13, 2010 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Light?
His stuff is more like Matt Garza than Pelfrey.
Perfect game:
And in a significant about-face, Harvey has been a revelation this spring. In his first six starts for the Tar Heels, he went 3-1, 1.85 with 48 strikeouts in 39 innings, while allowing just 23 hits. His fastball has been overpowering, regularly reaching 97-98 mph. The command of his secondary stuff has been sharper, and his mechanics have been much more fluid—more like earlier in his career. As a freshman at North Carolina, Harvey was brought along slowly, working mainly as a Sunday starter, and went a commendable 7-2, 2.79 with 47 walks and 80 strikeouts in 68 innings. Even as his workload was curtailed by design that summer, he flashed the best power stuff in the Cape with a fastball that was consistently in the 94-95 mph range and a hammer curve at 82-84. His changeup was a solid third pitch.
By watching the 2009 and 2010 versions of Harvey, it would be tough to tell that the same pitcher was on the mound. But Harvey has undeniably shown why he was considered such an elite talent in high school, and has essentially returned to the same delivery he had then. Harvey had his share of scouts talking about his April 23 game against Clemson, when he threw a complete game (9 IP/6 H/1 BB/15 SO) with a mind-boggling 156 pitches. The most impressive part of the outing, though, was that pitch No. 156 was a 96 mph fastball to end the game. His velocity from the past is obviously back as he has sat in the 92-96 mph range all year, topping out at 98 on several occasions. He has also featured a tight, low-80s slider that projects as a potential plus pitch.
Harvey has shown a plus potential curve as well as the slider, but switched from being a fastball/curve guy to more sinker/slider, mostly because his four-seam fastball was a bit too flat, and he gets better movement on the two-seamer.
Another scouting report:
PITCH REPERTOIRE
Harvey’s four-seam fastball sits in the 92-96 mph range and touches 98, but has proven very hittable over his college career because it lacks for life. This prompted he and pitching coach Scott Forbes to develop a two-seam fastball this spring, a heavy ball that arrives at 91-93 which he keeps in the lower-third of the zone. Harvey has relied on his two-seamer often – particularly late in games – to consistently generate weak contact and limit his pitch count, which helps explain why he has pitched deeper into games with greater frequency this season. His breaking pitch of choice is his slider, which comes in at 83-85 and flashes plus right now. The pitch gets good rotation and tilt when thrown well, but it will occasionally flatten out and give the appearance of a slow cutter. He has lost the feel for his power curveball, which had plus potential coming out of high school as a third-round pick of the Angels in 2007, often failing to stay on top of it and hanging way up in the zone. But he has previously demonstrated the requisite hand speed to spin a good one, so this degradation should just be temporary. Harvey exhibits feel for a changeup, a 79-83 offering with some tumble, although his motion is noticeably more deliberate from a side view.
SUMMATION
Harvey’s combination of physicality, present velocity and potential stuff is tantalizing, but he is considered something of an underachiever because the results over three years in college didn’t match the talent. His past struggles can be mostly attributed to a lack of command (and at times, control), which, if resolved, could result in him becoming a No. 2 starter at his peak. Harvey’s track record indicates risk, but there is enough upside to warrant a top-10 overall selection.
The only reason Harvey’s stock was down was because his mechanics got out of whack in one season, his sophmore year. He was fine as a freshman, and back to being very impressive last year as a junior.
by acerimusdux on Aug 13, 2010 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I was just about to post something similar
He was also a huge HS prospect who got passed over because of bonus demands. As you point out, the narrative then goes that he lost his mechanics before rediscovering them this year and firmly reestablishing himself.
I don’t think the Pelf comp is that terrible, but its definitely not “Pelfrey light,” and without the “light” that’s hardly a bad thing. Pelf was considered the best pitcher in his class when he was drafted. Based on scouting reports and projections at the time, you could make an argument that his career to this point has been a mild disappointment. He definitely lost velocity when he was put on a five day schedule (probably more than you’d expect from a college pitcher) and taught to use his sinker more and he just never found a way to miss as many bats in the upper levels as he had in college and the lower minors. I think a Pelf-type pitcher is a pretty reasonable mid-level expectation at that point, and that should put Harvey easily in the Top 5 here, probably even better than that, but I tend to favor being conservative with players who haven’t pitched in the pros yet.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2010 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Harvey in HS
Out of HS he was considered as good as Rick Porcello and Michael Main. And yeah, a Mike Pelfrey would rank ahead of a Lucas Duda as well. Duda’s having a great year, but I think in MLB I’ll be happy if he can be a .800 OPS corner utility bat. I’d be very happy with something like Seth Smith.
by acerimusdux on Aug 13, 2010 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Seth Smith is definitely an interesting comp
The development track is pretty similar. I could see Duda being an even better hitter, his power has appeared more suddenly, but his current numbers are better than Smith’s numbers were in the upper levels, he’s in a much tougher offensive environment (Seth had the benefit of the PCL), and Smith was older than Duda when he hit both Double-A and Triple-A (just half a year, but still). Duda’s numbers from the second half of last year when his breakout really started are actually better than the numbers Smith had in Double-A too. Plus the platoon split issue works here too. I doubt Duda will ever be even an average corner outfielder though, while Smith appears to be at least that.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 14, 2010 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions
True
Seth Smith probably has a bit more speed; he had 36 SB in his minor league career, Duda has 9. Fred Lewis is sort of another loose comp, but another guy with more speed.
Tough to come up with a comp though. He’s bigger than Jason Kubel, and hopefully a better defender. Another guy whose value is really hurt by his defense is Jonny Gomes. Gomes is a RHB, but another example of a guy who put up huge minor league numbers, but that 1.000 OPS in AAA, if it translates to an .800 OPS in MLB, doesn’t even make you a decent starter if defense is below average in LF.
Duda is somewhere between all that. He’s a big guy, bigger than any of these I’ve mentioned, and he runs OK for his size, but range will still be a liability. I don’t think he’ll be any better defensively than Murphy out there, but more power upside. Still, if you’re a -10 defender in LF, you need to OPS about .830 to be an average starter there.
by acerimusdux on Aug 14, 2010 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions
I knew about the strong freshman, off sophomore, strong junior year thing
and about changing from a FB/curve guy to a sinker/slider pitcher but I did not hear this:
His fastball has been overpowering, regularly reaching 97-98 mph.
I though it lived almost exclusively in the 92-94 range; maybe I had confused with his 2-seamer since I didn’t know he had one. That changes a lot.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Harvey
From last year’s draft, Zack Wheeler was the 6th pick and was named the Giants 2nd best prospect by BA, Mike Minor was 7th (considered a reach) and was the Braves 4th prospect, Mike Leake 8th and the Reds 3rd prospect, Jacob Turner 9th and was the Tigers #1 prospect.
Recent draft picks are pretty frequently underrated by fans.
this is pretty bad
If if another player in another system in another year was ranked this high, then Harvey should be too?
There are two things I know about Matt Harvey, one that he hasn’t pitched yet and the other that his arsenal consists of a decent sinker and a bunch of average pitches. Nothing about him screams top 10 to me.
ain't had enough...
Well he was also very highly regarded out of HS
Had a rough couple years in college, and then really reestablished himself again this year. I think he’s definitely Top 10, he’s a better prospect than Brad Holt was when he was drafted, and Holt was ranked right in the middle of Mets Top 10s pretty consistently from the time he was drafted until he hit the Double-A wall. Harvey was considered pretty on par with Rick Porcello coming out of High School, but high bonus demands caused him to drop down draft boards like a rock. This year’s draft class was kind of strange. There were a clear Top-3, which isn’t unusual, but the dropoff after that was really big, and the next tier was also incredibly deep with similar level talent. I buy that Harvey has the best combination of floor and ceiling of any college pitcher this side of Drew Pomeranz. A lot of the prep pitchers probably have more upside, and a guy like Chris Sale has a higher floor (he’ll likely pitch in the majors this year), but Harvey’s a pretty decent combo of both.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2010 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah but it was a polished college pitcher dominating the NYPL
The only thing worth really inferring from that was that he was able to maintain his velocity pretty well out of the gate on a five day schedule. Even that isn’t that shocking for a college pitcher initially though.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2010 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Howso?
Jacob Turner is the only guy he mentioned who was as highly regarded as Harvey at the time.
by acerimusdux on Aug 13, 2010 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions
for me
this is where it starts getting hard. i know reese is the more advanced high upside prospect, but the injuries lessen his value a lot in my eyes. he still should probably win this round, but the question now is go with the high upside low level guys or the less certain high level guys
I like Ike, I hate Jerry
also
no vaughn or any brooklyn pitchers? or guys who were crushing savannah early?
I like Ike, I hate Jerry
Vaughn'll be added to the poll eventually.
As for the other pitchers…who specifically? Because the majority of those guys (Cohoon comes to mind) don’t have much upside to speak of.
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
Somehow I'd rather not see game threads
Involving both Dickey and Cohoon, so let’s see if we can make him a starter.
Maybe Jim Fuller or Colin McCugh
"I reject your reality and substitute my own"
-Adam Savage
by blueandorange4life on Aug 14, 2010 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Fuller's upside is big league reliever.
88-91 on his fastball, below average curve, and he has a change that he’s used more and more as the season went on. That doesn’t scream “Top 20 prospect in the system” to me.
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
i know manny alvarez is relief
but that type of control and k:bb ratio is great coming out of the pen. i guess its too early for any of almonte, cuan or pinera, but all are doing really good
I like Ike, I hate Jerry
I just think that all of those guys' stuff isn't considered to be all that impressive.
Cuan would probably be the first one of the three I’d add.
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
I'm sorta surprised A-Rod hasn't gotten any votes here.
Havens is the clear cut choice here, and I can definitely see people preferring Harvey (and to a lesser extent Puello) to Aderlin, but he’s gotta be above everyone else on this poll, right?
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
He's an 18 year old IFA 3B playing his first full season in Kingsport
…and slugging .561 with 12 homers in his first 210 PAs
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
He's getting there, but I'd still stay somewhat tempered with him
I know how used to talking about how far ahead of the ARL curve Mets IFA prospects are, but that’s not really the case with Aderlin because he’s been blocked by Jefry Marte, who is an instructive example of why its better to play it safe here. Aderlin is almost 19, he’s only five months younger than Marte. His raw numbers are more impressive than Marte’s were in his GCL season, but he’s also a year and a half older than Marte was. When we’re talking about guys in rookie ball who aren’t Wilmer young, its really tough to get much out of stats, and first hand scouting reports are pretty tough to come by. If you’re 16 or 17 and dominating the rookie ball, it means you may have something special, but when you’re 18 or 19, its tougher to tell. Lets see how he handles the Sally league next year (plus get the benefit of some Mike Newman info) before we start thinking of him as another more than a C/C+ prospect. His defense also needs a lot of work. There are at least 5 or 6 guys I’d put ahead of Aderlin.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 13, 2010 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Agree on the Newman info part.
But who else would you put in front of him? Harvey, Puello, maybe Urbina or Matz? I can’t see Ceciliani or Duda being ahead of him.
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
Well including Havens
I’d almost definitely put Harvey, Puello, and Familia ahead of him and I’d consider guys who have some warts like Holt, Duda, Lutz, Gee, Ceciliani, even Marte. Marte’s shown some improvement this year, before he hurt his hammy he hit .354 / .384 / .585 in July with just 10 Ks in 85 ABs. He’s still not walking enough, but the reduced strikeout rate is encouraging, as is the fact that he managed to get his GB% down to 40.3% for the month, the first time he’s ever had it under 47% for any month since hitting Savannah. The less he pounds the ball into the ground, the more opportunity he’ll have to take advantage of his power potential. And again, he’s only five months older than Aderlin and doing it in full season ball. Obviously I don’t think a lot has changed because of just one month, but I don’t think its really fair to say Aderlin’s much more of a prospect than Marte at this point, at least not until how we see how he handles full season ball.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 14, 2010 12:10 AM EDT up reply actions
They're both terrible defensively, we know that much.
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
Yup, and thats a big part of the problem with both of them
When an infielder is that low in the minors, isn’t starting his career at SS, and is having this much defensive trouble, they need to prove a lot with their bat before we start taking them really seriously. If either one winds up at first base, it hurts their stock a lot. They’d better have a ton of offensive upside if they want to be serious prospects, and that just isn’t clear yet.
The way I always think of it, in accordance with the K.I.S.S. rule, what are his chances looking like of being a productive major leaguer? Duda may not be a really great traditional prospect, but its looking like he’ll be at least a better than replacement level major leaguer, and he has some upside to be average or better. A guy like Aderlin is still incredibly boom-or-bust, its not even close to clear that he can eventually play in the majors, and his upside isn’t really clear either. If he were a SS or had superior defensive tools, that would help his potential ceiling, but without that, you really have to assume he’ll be a beast of a hitter in the upper levels if you want to call him a high ceiling guy.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 14, 2010 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Aderlin Rodriguez & Cesar Puello
He does seem to be getting some buzz lately. I don’t like to get too excited over guys putting up numbers at that level unless I know scouts and observers are enthusiastic as well. I’m starting to get the sense that is the case with Aderlin though. Keven Goldstein has mentioned him a couple of times recently, I think said he had as much power upside as anyone in that league, Toby Hyde seems enthusiastic after seeing him as well, and has a video up which looks pretty good.
It will be interesting to see though how he fares when BA does their end of season league lists. Cesar Puello is a guy who has made those top 20 lists in two different leagues now in the last two years, one in which he only had a .714 OPS. So I’m confident at this point that the scouts are high on Puello’s tools. I think I could see him in the top 5.
by acerimusdux on Aug 14, 2010 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Goldstein has been talking about Aderlin since the Mets signed him
For what its worth.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 14, 2010 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Just wanted to throw this out there,
Himmelstein and acerimusdux, impressive work.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
This was the last easy vote.
Now it’s advanced guys who are probably bench players/platoon partners or high upside guys in low A/ Rookie ball.
can we add sean ratliff?
I like Ike, I hate Jerry
I'll definitely add him to the testers, but I think he's way behind some other guys who haven't even made the ballot yet.
Familia, Gee, Lutz, Holt, Marte, even Vaughn I’d put on the ballot before Ratliff.
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
He's putting up gaudy numbers at AA, it's just that no one believes he can sustain them
High Ks/low BBs at AA scares a lot of scouts off. I’ve never heard anything about his glove in CF though. Anyone know if he’s being shoehorned there for the time being and will switch to the corners eventually?
whoops, you're right, I did that comment right after responding to another thread about Satin
Not sure why they’re interchangable in my head.
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
i thought he was at the corners because of the captain
but is an even better CF, his natural position, than him
I like Ike, I hate Jerry
Mets top 5 prospects
http://www.northjersey.com/sports/pro_sports/100710364_Mets__top_5_prospects.html
per Steve Popper:
1. Wilmer Flores, shortstop: While the 19-year-old projects as something other than shortstop at 6 feet 3 and still growing, there is little debate over his hitting skills.
2. Jenrry Mejia, right-handed pitcher: Already with a taste of the majors the flame-throwing right-hander, 20, is back in the minors being groomed for a rotation role.
3. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, center fielder: Very athletic, the 6-3, 210-pounder had 16 homers in 94 games for Class AA Binghamton before promotion to Class AAA.
4. Robert Carson, left-handed pitcher: He may not have the arm of Mejia or Jeurys Familia, but Mets officials compare Carson, 21, to Jonathon Niese with command and a great cutter.
5. Jordany Valdespin, infielder: The Mets love his potential as he has moved up the ladder with athleticism and skills.
He's pretty impressive
He’s a big lefty, with a fastball sitting low 90’s touching 94, with decent fastball command.
He’s able to sustain that pretty well. Could throw a lot of innings.
Good athleticism, mound presence, competitiveness, excellent pickoff move.
Slider with good late break, though mostly lateral, not a lot of drop.
He needs to work on his secondary offerings, but easily could be a #3 SP. There’s a lot to like there.
by acerimusdux on Aug 15, 2010 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions
But ranking him ahead of Martinez, Havens, Familia, and Harvey?
I mean in his explanation he even says he doesn’t have the arm of a Familia…
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Mostly agree
I tend to think of Fernando as no longer eligible, but he included Mejia, so, not sure what his criteria were. And Harvey hasn’t signed yet.
The other guys I think are close. I had Carson one spot behind Havens, and ahead of Familia. With Familia showing some signs of life over the last couple of weeks though, I might change that.
I really didn’t like the Niese comp though, as they don’t seem to be at all alike. Carson throws harder, but without any of Niese’s outstanding secondary repertoire. OK, he has a cutter/slider, but he’s a long way from being a Niese. From his other article, where he suggests the Mets think Carson could be in the majors some time in 2011, I have to think they mean in a bullpen role. In which case I would see him as more like a left handed Bobby Parnell.
The guy I thought was more questionable there was Valdespin. Valdespin has some pretty solid tools, but still not quite as much upside as Havens. If you really think Valdespin can stick at SS, you can maybe make a case for ranking him higher.
For me though, while he has the tools and bat to rank top 10 (not ahead of Havens), I would knock him down a few spots based on make up concerns and lack of plate discipline.
I wouldn’t be shocked if these were guys the Mets were trying to hype for trade reasons either. Jordany is enough of a PITA that I can see them wanting to get rid of him, and his a good enough athlete and hitter that I can see opposing team’s scouts being impressed when they see him.
way too early to call him only a middle reliever, hes 21
but way too early to be a top 5 prospect
I like Ike, I hate Jerry
that's a pretty terrible list, leaving Havens out in favor of Valdespin.
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
well valdespin is regarded by scouts as having the most upside
just zero make up
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
but Havens has always been considered a pretty good bet to make the majors in one capacity or another.
Valdespin’s may have a bit more boom, but he has a lot more bust, if that makes sense.
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
I'm not even buying more boom
Valdespin has the tools to maybe be a better fielder, if he were a good fielder, but he isn’t. He’s got a bit of pop, but not quite as much potential there as Havens. He’s quicker than Havens, a better athlete, but I just don’t see where it translates into him being as good a prospect yet.
I think I would have to buy Valdspin as a starting SS to rank him alongside Havens. He has solid tools and I like his bat, but the lack of plate discipline, as well as defensive lapses, has me doubting that. I think he would pretty much need to reach his ceiling to be as good as Havens.
What has Havens actually done?
Not a lot. He has good potential but in looking to who has the greatest potential to be an impact major leaguer, doesn’t it have to be Urbina?
Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.
No offense, but this is a dumb AND contradictory point.
Not only does Havens have more potential, he’s produced. Sure, it was small sample, but he was putting up a 1.000+ OPS in AA as an above average fielding second baseman. That’s terrific. Urbina is putting up a mid 6.00 ERA in the GCL. So in terms of “What has Havens actually done?”, he’s done quite a lot, while Urbina’s done jack. Again, I actually really like Urbina, scouts love his arm, but there’s really no comparison.
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
How is it contradictory?
Urbina should be a junior in high school. You cannot compare accomplishments between the two. Havens has not been able to stay healthy and while he has been good when he has played, he has proven to be injury prone and has not stayed on the field nearly enough.
Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.
It's contradictory because you say "What has Havens actually done? Not a lot" to put down Havens
when Urbina has done significantly less than Havens.
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
Havens is a draftee who played in college
Urbina is 17 years old. Of course he has done significantly less. It’s impossible for him to have not done less, thus not contradictory.
I am also not putting down Havens ability. His being prone to injury significantly impacts his status as a prospect. He also had only one quality season in college, which worries me a bit. I just think that Urbina is very projectable and has more upside.
Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.
but that's not what you're talking about with your original point.
Whether or not that’s how you feel, what you said originally WAS contradictory. You referenced accomplishments, and said Havens didn’t have much to speak of. That’s false.
Secondly, Urbina’s upside is high, sure. But pretty much every scout who’s seen Havens loves his upside as well, so that’s pretty much a wash. Havens, however, is a MUCH better bet to make it to the majors, firstly because of his age and his level, and secondly because TINSTAAPP. The injuries are definitely something to keep on eye on with Havens, and a downside to him as a prospect, but a 17 year old pitcher “staying healthy” who hasn’t even made it out of the GCL isn’t remarkable. Staying healthy isn’t too hard to do when, again, you’re 17 and have only pitched for a month or so professionally. In that sense, the injury situation isn’t comprable between the two.
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
Yeah but you're projecting a guy who has about 10x as many adjustments to make
There’s so much that can happen over the next 4 or 5 years with Urbina. The only thing that pointing out his age really does is show how much time he has to make adjustments, but there’s a limit to how much that increases the likelihood that he’ll be a viable major leaguer. Not to mention he’s a pitcher. I’m not huge on TINSTAPP, but the injury risk between a healthy 17 year old pitcher and an injury prone upper-level middle infielder is pretty similar.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 16, 2010 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Where is Mejia on this list?
Jenrry Mejia is, at worst, the Mets third best prospect. How are you voting on the fourth best Mets’ prospect, and he isn’t under consideration?

by 


























