Mets Community Prospect List 2010: #5
by squid92 on Aug 15, 2010 6:42 PM EDT
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PrintWelcome to the 2nd Annual Amazin' Avenue Mets Community Prospect List. Every poll will include eight candidates for the next spot on the list, as well as a separate group of testers. Testers will be rotated into polls with each new installation, replacing each poll's winner and any name that's not getting votes. After a few rounds, if a candidate on the ballot receives a decidedly low vote total , they'll be replaced on the ballot by a tester. But for the first couple polls, I won't remove candidates with these low totals.
With 73% of the vote, Reese Havens is the consensus choice for #4 prospect in the Mets' system. Replacing him in the poll is Jeurys Familia, who in his last two starts has pitched 13.2 innings with 18 K's while only allowing 1 run on 11 hits and 2 walks. Sean Ratliff, Josh Satin, and Jordany Valdespin have been added to the testers. To recap:
The contenders (I'm trying a new format on this: (Age) Level Position BA/OBP/SLG, Plate Appearances; for pitchers, I'll list IP, ERA, H, BB, K, and HR):
Cesar Puello (19) A RF .292/.375/.359, 469 PAs
Aderlin Rodriguez (18) R (K) 3B .290/.332/.550, 214 PAs
Darrell Ceciliani (20) A- CF .371/.424/.548, 245 PAs
Juan Urbina (17) R (G) SP 40.1 IP, 5.36 ERA, 43 H, 12 BB, 32 K, 5 HR
Matt Harvey (21) SP N/A
Steven Matz (19) SP N/A
Lucas Duda (24) AAA 1B/LF .325/.394/.670, 221 PAs (197 at AA)
Jeurys Familia (20) A+ SP 98.0 IP, 5.51 ERA, 96 H, 64 BB, 101 K, 4 HR
Testers: Robert Carson, Cory Vaughn, Brad Holt, Jefry Marte, Eddie "Ruff Rider" Kunz, Eric Campbell, Zach Lutz, Dillon Gee, Zach Dotson, Sean Ratliff, Josh Satin, Jordany Valdespin
As always, voice opinions for the next ballot spot in the comments, and vote away.
This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions, reasoning skills, or attention to grammar and usage rules held by the editors of this site.
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I think it's between Familia or Ceciliani.
Harvey would probably be in there too if he was signed.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Can we get some numbers on the choices next time?
Like someone said the other day, this is where it gets tough to choose, and it’d be easier if we don’t have to go looking through multiple pages to find their stats.
May you be locked in a battle of wits against Jerry Manuel.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Aug 15, 2010 9:30 PM EDT reply actions
Thanks.
Probably should have waited to cast my vote, then.
May you be locked in a battle of wits against Jerry Manuel.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Aug 15, 2010 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I can't really say Familia deserves to be #5.
He’s had a few good starts lately, but he’s generally been a pretty big disappointment this year.
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
You bet.
64 BBs in 98 innings?
That’s Ollie Country. And, oh, what a wasteland it is.
My new rule is top ten prospects have to have a) stayed healthy for at least 1/2 their pro seasons, and either b) had a BB/9 under 5.00, or an OBP over 330.
Agreed
But the strikeout numbers are nice to see. He’s increased it from 6.62 in rookie league to 7.32 last year to 9.28 this year. Also, he gets a good amount of ground balls and doesn’t give up many homers, 2 in rookie league, 3 last season and 4 this year.
And Jack, he’s a long way from Ollie country, 7.91 and 7.71 BB/9 last year and this year respectively. Not a compliment for Familia, more like how really horrible Ollie is.
An exaggeration, I admit, but I wish it was more than a slight one.
I’m sure you’ve noticed that Familia’s control has gotten worse every year (with the caveat that he’s only been in pro ball since 2008). He started with a 3:1 ratio in a small sample. now he’s down to 1.6:1. It’s also been my experience that as a pitcher gets wilder he also gets more strikeouts. Batters just don’t dig in as much against a pitcher who doesn’t know where the ball is going. But it’s also been my (entirely subjective) experience that the gain in K’s doesn’t compensate for the rise in BB’s.
But the low HR total is genuinely impressive. Familia’s kept it low every year he’s been in pro ball. I’d like to see a season at AA with 4BB or less/9 before I can figure he’s a strong prospect. Would you move him up to AA next year, or let him work on his control repeating A+?
see:
Oliver Perez for years, at least until his velocity fell off a cliff.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
that is to say a lot of Ollie's k rates
were likely the cause of no one, including him, knowing where those pitches were going to land.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
I'd let him start out in A+
And I did notice it has increased each year, but from 08 to 09 it was a very minimal increase, 2.26 to 3.09. This seasons 5.88 BB/9 is way too high, but he’s still young and could hopefully get his control back to where it was last season. One season doesn’t worry me very much, but if he’s still having severe problems next year, then it would be worrisome. As I said, start him out in St. Lucie next year and if the control looks good early and he’s where he needs to be, I’d move him up in mid-May.
Makes sense.
Now let’s see if the Mets can figure it out.
well the mets actually seem to have an excellent developmental staff
or coaches or w/e in the minors, the problems arise when the big league front office starts to get involved. the more they ignore a player usually the better they turn out.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
Nick Evans should be the next Albert Pujols, then
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
Who?
May you be locked in a battle of wits against Jerry Manuel.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Aug 17, 2010 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions
They haven't messed up any low level hitters
But their is a weird trend of A ball pitchers forgetting how to throw strikes.
well I think that might be partially because of an organizational
trend of chasing after guys with horrible control because they think they can be fixed/harnessed.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
Surprised that Familia is leading right now. He's a hard thrower who has trouble throwing strikes
And not much secondary stuff. I went with Harvey who doesn’t have great secondary stuff (if ever) but hasn’t had control problems with the fastball.
We should probably throw Goeddal in the testers in a couple rounds now that we know he’s actually signed and playing.
I didn't go with Harvey for the simple reason that he hasn't even pitched yet.
Technically, he’s not even in our system, since he hasn’t signed yet.
May you be locked in a battle of wits against Jerry Manuel.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Aug 15, 2010 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions
I go with Harvey
if he is part of the poll, than I’d assume we should assume he is part of the system.
I bet Jerry Manuel just bunted.
that's what was decided
By the end of tomorrow he’ll either be signed or not. If not, he’ll be left off the final list. So treat him as signed.
by acerimusdux on Aug 15, 2010 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions
This is where it's tough
I’m between Harvey and Puello next. Between Harvey and Familia, I think Harvey is the easy choice. He throws just as hard as Familia, has better mechanics, has MUCH better secondary stuff, and is only 6 months older. Familia has looked a bit better recently, but still isn’t quite in Harvey’s class.
Cesar Puello may get overlooked because his overall numbers don’t look great, but he has some of the highest ceiling tools in the system, with plus speed, a plus arm, and good size with projectable power. He’s a classic potential 5 tool outfielder, who at lower levels was twice named one of the top 20 prospects in his league. And, at only 19 in low A ball, he appears to be breaking out, hitting .340/.423/.424 over his last 260 PA. That looks much better than his season line of .292/.375/.359.
Darrell Ceciliani has dominated the NYPL with a .371/.424/.548 line at 20 years old. That’s a reasonable age for the league, but he’s still 9 months older than Puello, at a lower level, and probably has less untapped power to develop. Still, he’s a speedy CF who plays good defense, gets on base, has a bit of pop, and draws Ellsbury comps.
Aderlin Rodriguez at 18, almost 8 months younger than Puello, is a level below Cecilian, in the rookie level Appalachian league. He’s still a bit young for the league though, which is generally the second stop for HS draftees, and more typically serves as rookie ball for players with a year or two of college ball. He’s currently hitting .290/.332/.550, and is second in the league with 12 HR. Keith Law says he has as much power potential as anyone in the league, and one observer has suggest an Aramis Ramirez comp.
by acerimusdux on Aug 15, 2010 10:29 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Ceciliani has been a joy to watch in Brooklyn
My favorite Cyclone position player since Captain Kirk.
by TheBigStapler on Aug 17, 2010 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I was going to ask if Harvey had even been signed yet
but it seems redundant at this point.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Aug 15, 2010 11:26 PM EDT reply actions
Duda!
Give me actual over potential numbers, and AAA over anyt other level, any time.
The fact that Eddie Kunz is already a "tester"
is reason enough for Omar to get canned.
Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.
Kunz should probably be dropped from consideration.
He’s been bad for 2 years at a not so young age anymore.
Closer of the future!!!
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Aug 16, 2010 1:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Give him a little break . . .
If the Mets weren’t so retarded/awful this year we should have Meija be number one on the list and Tejeda and Ike would be in the top five- ten range. Also F! is going to be off this list before the season ends.
Oh, don't worry
He’s on there as a joke. I have no intention of putting him onto the poll.
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
Like I said in the last poll (and the one before that)
I wanted to add Familia first, but I’m adding Lutz to the next poll.
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
I'm suprised at so few votes for Ad-rod
vs guys who haven’t even played
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
i was between him and puello
I like Ike, I hate Jerry
I went with Duda
He’s the only prospect in double and triple A right now, although he may have the least upside. I thought about Familia but he hasn’t pitched well enough. I’m tempted to put Matz and Harvey over him.
See above about Lutz.
I would like to add Gee to the poll after that one.
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
i got puello
combination of age, speed, projectability, level he is already at and will be at. with his speed, why doesn’t he get a shot at CF?
also, it would stink if harvey isnt signed, what then do you do with all those votes for him?
I like Ike, I hate Jerry
Not a problem
He won’t be on the list if he isn’t signed. Even worse would be if people don’t vote for him because he’s not yet signed.
The moment Harvey signs, Jenry Mejia will be our second best pitching prospect. People not voting for him because he isn’t signed yet pretty much means the entire list will be obsolete after today.
I'm pretty sure Mejia would be ahead of Harvey
They’ve got similar stuff actually, mid-90s fastball with great movement, breaking stuff that shows promise but is still inconsistent and shoddy command, but Mejia is a year or two younger than Harvey.
I bet Jerry Manuel just bunted.
Mejia is 6 months younger
Mejia is 6 months younger. I think the stuff is similar. But, Harvey has the build and mechanics to maybe be more likely to stick as a SP. I think Mejia is the one who might be better off in the pen. Harvey this year had a 3.3 BB9, which isn’t bad at all. And stuff wise, both the curve and slider have shown plus potential, and the change is at least decent.
Harvey struggled pretty badly as a sophmore, but that was really just one season. His walk rate was pretty high as a freshman as well, but otherwise, he was dominating that year, with a 2.79 ERA and 10.6 SO9 for the college season, and then a 0.83 ERA and 12.0 SO9 in a bullpen stint in Cape Cod. That’s nasty stuff from a 19 year old.
And he was very good in 2010. 8-3, 3.09 ERA, 7.5H9, 0.6HR9, 3.3BB9, 9.6SO9. If those numbers are at all disappointing, it’s only because people know he has the talent to be even more dominating.
I think Harvey is getting knocked down a bit too much for one bad year. We’ve seen Mejia struggle at times, last year in AA for instance, without writing off his ceiling as a result. I also think people maybe underestimate the difference in the level of talent you are getting at the very top of the draft. If Davis, Mejia, and Martinez have graduated, then Harvey and Flores are really the class of this system for me as far as blue chip potential top 50 prospects. Kirk is the other guy who I think could be top 50 if he continues to rake this year, but that’s partly because he’s also very near ready.
The Mets system is mediocre because we don’t really have more guys with that upside. The only top 60 pick the Mets have had over the last 2 years would be Harvey. An average team would have 4 picks out of those 120. And an average team would have 6 picks in the top 30 over the 6 years Omar has been here; the Mets will have four: Pelfrey, Davis, Havens, and Harvey.
I might still rank Mejia higher until Harvey actually shows something in the minors, but I do think the talent level is close and I think it is a debate we might be having in another 6 months, as to which of the two is better.
Wow, only 6 months?
I guess I should have done my homework there.
I bet Jerry Manuel just bunted.
Harvey's got one more advantage over Mejia:
he hasn’t been screwed around with by Jerry Manuel. That’s gotta count for something.
May you be locked in a battle of wits against Jerry Manuel.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Aug 16, 2010 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions
How exactly does Harvey make Meija our second best pitchng prospect?
he’s a college arm with questionably developed stuff who profiles as a possible bullpen arm or Pelfrey at this point.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
That's what I thought as well
Until Himmelstein and acerimusdux got through with me. Harvey wouldn’t push Mejia down to #2, but he’s legit.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
I went with Harvey
If he somehow doesn’t sign, it’d be a much more difficult choice IMO. I’d have four candidates after Harvey — Puello, Familia, Duda, and Gee. They’re all such different players and in such different stages of development, its hard to compare them one-to-one. Here’s my thinking on each:
Puello probably has the best tools in the organization. Here’s a question I have about him - does he hover right over the plate? He’s shown a knack for reaching base via HBP pretty consistently (6 HBP in 163 PAs in 2007, 14 in 221 PAs in 2008, and now 22 in 469 PAs in 2010). That probably makes his OBP a bit deceptive. It indicates he may be able to reach base at a consistent clip in part, but also points to his relatively low BB% leaving room for improvement in terms of approach.
-I think there’s more silver lining in Familia’s season than people realize. His walk rate has spiked, but his BABIP is also pretty high. Overall, a 3.93 FIP from a 20 year old in HiA is pretty solid. His numbers remind me of my thinking when I was writing his profile for the AA Annual. I concluded it by saying the following:
The big tell-tale will be his strikeout rate, specifically against lefty batters. Even if his command sputters, so long as he’s missing more left-handed bats, consider it an improvement with some growing pains, and watch for him to start pushing the upper levels.
Lo and behold, his K/9 vs. LHP has spiked from 4.83 last year to 7.87 this year, while his problems have almost exclusively been about command. His overall numbers may not look super pretty, but especially considering the apparent improvement he’s made missing lefty bats and with command thus far in August, I’m inclined to believe he’s making progress and actually feel fairly encouraged by his season. He still has a ways to go, but I would be more inclined to talk about his season as a positive development rather than a negative one at this point.
-Duda is a tough nut to crack. Its really tempting to say he’s completely turned a corner and made himself into an average or better major leaguer at an offense-first position, but with his size he’ll never be even an average outfielder. If Ike Davis doesn’t have a monster September, I would love for the organization to quietly keep an open mind about having Duda man first base going into next spring, especially with a platoon-mate like Hessman or Evans. Davis clearly has more trade value, and I’m entirely convinced he has all that much more upside than Duda (at least offensively). At worst, I think Duda will wind up a better version of Chris Carter, so he’ll have some value, but its tough to get a clear picture of his range, and his upside will always be limited by his positional and defensive deficiencies.
-He’s not on the poll, but the other guy I’d consider here is Gee. He’s looking to me like the perfect CitiField #5 starter. His K/BB this year is excellent. I suspect his stuff is going to get elevated more in against major league hitters, but CitiField should help him from ever being too homer-prone, and he has enough command where he can afford to miss a few less bats. He’s the most polished arm in the system and I think he’s a very viable major league pitcher as is right now, he just has very little upside beyond a back-end type. Still, that’s a valuable commodity to own, especially so cheaply.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 16, 2010 4:13 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
The phantom strike strikes again!
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 16, 2010 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions
This may have happened during your leave of absence
but we’ve decided to blame all of those phantom strikes on anonymous (the commenter, not the 4chan frequenter collective)
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
22 HBP is pretty absurd
Puello’s BB% isn’t really impressive compared to Marte (about same age and league level) or F-Mart (who was in AA instead of A at the same age).
by secret defense on Aug 16, 2010 5:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Definitely
But the fact that its been a similar rate for three years running indicates there may be some sustainability to it. There are two reasons we talk about walk rate: 1) It indicates patience in terms of approach and 2) Because getting on base is inherently valuable. HBPs don’t do a whole lot in terms of #1, but they’re identical to BBs in terms of #2, and there are legitimately some hitters who simply sustain a high HBP%. Look at Chase Utley, he had at least 24 HBPs a year for three years running before this year. And there was some indication of it during his time in the minors. He had 1547 minor league PAs between 2001 and 2003 and was hit by 43 pitches.
Puello definitely has some work to do with his approach, but he has the tools to stay in CF long term and some untapped power potential. Improving his approach would probably help tap that potential, so his upside has a lot of helium to it. A few adjustments could lead to drastic improvement in production, at which point reaching base an extra 15-20 times a year via HBP would be some pretty serious gravy. Fernando was only ever considered a fringe CF prospect, and Marte is a piss poor defensive third baseman, and neither is reaching base frequently via HBP, so its a bit easier to cut Puello some slack at this stage.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 16, 2010 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions
puello
the problem is he’s played just one game in his entire pro career in center. the mets clearly view puello as a rf and though i really wish they’d give him a fair shake as a center fielder first as it would really boost his value, chances are they’re right in their evaluation. despite very good speed and an all-out mentality, puello doesn’t have the most natural outfield instincts and as a kid with a wide base and muscular frame, he’s destined to add a lot of bulk as he ages. throw in the strong and very accurate arm and he sounds more and more like a future right fielder.
and looking at him through that lens, even with all his other flaws aside, i find it really hard to give a right fielder with one home run a top 5 vote, power potential or not.
as far as kids who may stick in center field, i’m about ready to see sean ratliff hit the polls and i’d vote for him in the next 3-4 spots, ahead of both puello and ceciliani. i’m just not getting the huge perceived difference between ratliff and nieuwenhuis that exists in mets prospect rankings considering that in lots of ways these two are the same player.
by Rob Castellano on Aug 17, 2010 1:27 AM EDT up reply actions
Ratliff
Less speed than Kirk, not as good defense, walks too little and strikes out too much. That said, big power there, and he is putting up the numbers this year. And he has very solid tools for a corner.
plus ratliff's a year older
obviously kirk is the better player but my point is that none of these differences is that huge, not enough to justify this huge gap in their perceived value at least. or the idea that kirk is a slam dunk over puello, ceciliani, etc while ratliff isn’t even in the discussion. i’d even go as far as saying that there’s a distinct possiblity that in 3 years ratliff is actually the most productive member of this group.
as far as versus kirk, the speed isn’t a huge difference (ratliff has 22 sb’s over the last two seasons compared to 30 for kirk) and kirk is the bulkier guy so one could make the argument that ratliff maintains it better. and actually the last time i saw each of them play i had kirk just under 4.3 sec to first and ratliff at 4.12 to first.
kirk also isn’t great himself as far as walks and strikeouts go. kirk’s rates over the past two seasons: BB% – 8% & K% – 21% vs ratliff’s rates from the last two seasons: BB% – 6% & K% – 25%.
in keeping with this idea, ratliff’s power (.199 ISO) is just a shade behind kirk’s (.204 ISO) and ratliff has posted fly ball rates in the low 40’s while kirk is always in the mid 30%’s, meaning that in the majors ratliff could easily exhibit more HR power while kirk may hit a lot more doubles.
and it isn’t like ratliff doesn’t have the early round pedigree that kirk has either. while kirk was the mets ’08 third rounder, ratliff was the very next selection, taken just 34 picks later in the middle of the 4th round, out of a much better school no less (stanford vs. azusa pacific).
obviously a lot of their value is tied to them staying in cf and at this point i’d say neither has an edge in that regard. neither is an ideal center fielder and both probably only has the first few years of their careers their at best. but i do think both play the position adequately enough right now to project them there.
by Rob Castellano on Aug 17, 2010 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions
great points
Yeah, and I’ll add one more. While I think Kirk has a tic more speed, if both end up in RF, Ratliff has the better arm, in addition to more raw power potential. On the other hand, as far as tools, neither guy is really that far off either from a guy like Brett Jackson, who is getting top prospect recognition – but having a tic more speed is maybe a big difference there for Jackson projecting in CF.
I think the main thing is this system has a lot of depth in B to C+ guys right now. We’re very thin on Flores and Harvey blue chip prospect types, due to the lack of high draft picks and unwillingness to go over slot. I’ve been making a strong argument for Harvey here, because I think he is the one remaining guy who stands out. After that though, I don’t think there’s going to be a big difference between roughly the next 15 names. You could certainly argue that Cory Vaughn also isn’t much different from Ratliff, for example. And Eric Campbell vs. Zach Lutz might be a similar debate.
by acerimusdux on Aug 17, 2010 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah
i agree, harvey is the right choice here and by this time next season could easily jump to the top of this list.
and you’re right, the depth isn’t bad (at least offensively) but it’s unfortunate how very few high ceiling prospects this system has. you always hear about how especially in the lower levels other teams (the phillies and the braves in particular) have stud athletes and rocket arms. how many guys do the mets have that can even touch 95mph even with wildness, at any level? aside from harvey i’d say three, maybe 4? (for those curious i’m counting harvey, holt, familia, fraser & tony feliz)
you’re exactly right, the mets have a ton of average, B-C level players which certainly has it’s value but the ability to develop star level players rather than having to pay for them is crucial in today’s game and the mets are woefully bad at it.
by Rob Castellano on Aug 17, 2010 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
which is unfortunate, considering we developed two of the best players in baseball in a two year span this decade
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
It is kind of strange
The Mets are a scouting organization, which usually means the teenagers they pull of the IFA market are toolsy young guys, but the Mets don’t seem to find that at all. The most successful IFA prospects they dig up really aren’t the toolsiest by any meas. Fernando, Flores, even Tejada, who has tools but for a shortstop isn’t really anything special in terms of raw athleticism. The only real IFA tools monster I remember they bringing through the system recently was Gomez, and he hasn’t panned out offensively at all.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 17, 2010 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
maybe we're a scouting organization
who’s not very good at scouting?
could part of the problem also be scaling back spending? I’d imagine some of the mega toolsy prospects are going to command bigger bonuses. So we might go after some of the underrated due to a lack of tools guys.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
It's got to be some kind of budget thing
When we first got Omar he went out and signed a bunch of IFA like FMart, Pena’s kid, etc. Than scaled back on IFA for awhile until this year with Urbina’s kid, ARod, etc.
Arod was signed in like 08 I believe
I remember Kevin Goldstein talking about him.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
And the thing is even when we signed F-mart
I’m pretty sure he was the only big bonus guy we signed, where as others teams (Rangers, Red Sox, Yankees) generally bring in anywhere between 5-10 6 figure bonus guys.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
F-Mart's bonus that year was record setting though, if I remember correctly
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 17, 2010 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I never thought we were the top IFA guys
But it seems like some years we only have 1 or 2 6 figure bonus babies.
No we were always connected to 1-2 big names
but it was a lot like how we build our teams in the off-seasons. We’d get the one or two big names and then go after low low signing guys, which worked out with Meija, we were never like teams like the Red Sox/Yankees/Braves/Rangers who’d sign several 6 figure bonus guys.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
of course Meddler just said this exact same thing
and explained it much better
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
Not necessarily, their IFA budget has been pretty consistent year to year I think, and in the upper end of what most organizations spend internationally
There’s generally been one major headliner and then lots of smaller expenditures.
2005 was mostly dedicated to F-Mart’s seven figure bonus.
In 2006 Pena was the big name but that was also the year Tejada was signed.
In 2007 you had Flores as the headliner but Marte, Puello, Valdespin, and Mejia were all in this class along with honkbaler Marinus Vernooij.
Aderlin was the biggest name in 2008 along with German catcher Kai Gronauer, and from this point on we likely won’t hear much from the smaller signings for another year or so since they’re mostly still in the GCL (one name to keep an eye on is speedy middle infielder Randoll Santana, who has stolen 62 bases in 106 games between the DSL last year and GCL this year).
The headliner in 2009 was obviously Urbina, and a lot of the smaller signings from this class are still probably in the Dominican Academy and the rest in the GCL.
Vincente Lupo and Leon Jackson Canelon are the two most noted international signings by the Mets this year. Lupo is the bigger name, he’s probably in a similar class to Aderlin (best tool is the hit tool, big power upside), Canelon a tier below (more of a contact-and-speed infielder type). They’re probably both relatively big bonuses, but without knowing the details I’d guess neither are quite as big as guys like Pena, Urbina, Flores, or F-Mart, who all got in the upper end of six figures (except F-Mart who got seven figures).
Of all these years, 2008 looks to be the most temperate in terms of spending, with 2010 next, mostly because it doesn’t look like they’ve signed anyone for more than $300 or 400k. The total spending in 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2009 looks pretty similar, but spread around differently. But again, its hard to say that for sure without knowing all the details of every signing they make, most of which aren’t publicized at all initially. It actually looks like there are quite a few guys in the GCL Mets who signed in 2008 but aren’t getting much attention, at least not yet. Next year may reveal some hidden gems from that class when some of its members start coming stateside.
I’m not sure what it all this means, I just think its interesting that the best athletes in this cross section are all the smaller bonus guys: Puello, Valdespin, Tejada, Randoll Santana, even Mejia in a way. Even this year, Lupo is noted for his strength and power potential, not as much for his athleticism, and he’s the biggest signing I’ve heard of so far in 2010 (though Canelon is probably a more traditional athletic type). It may just be that the Mets figure toolsy teenage athletes who are willing sign for five figures are pretty common, while the guys who show some legit signs of being quality hitters (or guys with major league pedigrees in the cases of Pena and Urbina) are a bit harder to find. Those are the guys who really stand out to them, so they deem them worthy of paying a bit more for, while they gloss over the elite athletes and go for the rich secondary tier of athletic players. This is just speculation, but its the best explanation I can come up with.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 17, 2010 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm not sure
I just think its kind of strange that they’ve really focused (and somewhat successfully) at identifying more pure-hitting types in 16 and 17 year olds. That seems like a bigger challenge than identifying the best athletes. I mean, Wilmer Flores was definitely not the best athlete in his IFA class, far from it, but the Mets gave over half a million based on his hitting potential. You can say the same type of thing about Aderlin. Fernando was a better athlete when he was younger, but his best tool was definitely the hit tool, that’s what earned him the major bonus.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 17, 2010 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions
they do the opposite with the draft don't they?
looking more for defensive toolsy players?
which is weird cause I feel like that’s the opposite of what other teams do with IFA and the draft.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
Its definitely strange
Maybe its some kind of half-assed attempt to identify market inefficiencies? Like pure secondary tools and athleticism are undervalued in the draft and overvalued in IFA? I think it may be true in the latter case, just for the sake of ease in trying to scout players so young, but its definitely not true that secondary tools are undervalued in the draft.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 17, 2010 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions
I suppose that's a problem
But how much does it really matter? Isn’t it kind of the tweener fallacy? When we talk about a guy “moving off center” its more a way of saying his defensive value is going to decrease, not because he’s going to play a different position, but because of natural attrition. I mean, if he turns into a Carl Crawford type, a guy with excellent COF defense, below average power for the position but plenty of offensive value otherwise thanks to good speed and base-reaching ability, that’s fine with me. With someone like Nieuwenhuis, the “won’t be a CF” lingo gets thrown out a lot, but that case is different, because its not expected that he’ll necessarily be a +10 or +15 corner outfielder when he moves off center. He’s expected to actually lose defensive value, but technically speaking, the actual position he plays probably won’t effect his value much.
Maybe you’re right and the Mets have something in their evaluation that says Puello should be in a corner and that he does have a big time defensive deficiency, but it may just be that’s where he’s comfortable, or some other positive reason he’s playing RF. For what its worth, TotalZone rates him very well, +13 so far in about 150 games. It is the lower levels, so its hard to read a whole lot out of it, but at least in terms of competition level, COF is the one position where the quality of lower level defense is pretty similar to the majors. If that +13 is accurate, that would probably mean he could play CF just fine and is somewhere around Angel Pagan’s class of defensive player.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 17, 2010 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions
One note--
Crawford isn’t good at getting on base. His career OBP is .333, and as recently as 2008 he was a Molina-esque 319. In his best years he’ll get on at a decent .350 clip, but in general he’s just not very good at getting on base. Great once he gets there, granted.
you know what they could keep an open mind about
Davis for right field! Duda at first.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
This.
As much as I hate to admit it, we just don’t know how Beltran will perform going forward. A 4 man rotation of Davis, Pagan, Bay, and Beltran while Davis also shares time with Duda at first wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
Makes sense.
It would be insane to go into next year with no plan at all for the case where Beltran is largely done.
I know we hate to think so, but far more guys with his resume fall of a cliff in their early to mid thirties than keep playing decently for three to five more years and thereby get elected to the Hall of Fame. Far, far more. He may recover, but we have to at least consider the possibility that he’s done.
Yeah, but it was insane this year too.
I’m hoping all of Fernando, Kirk, and Duda are in the OF mix next year. No more GMJ types on the bench.
Exactly.
A guy like GMJ will never, ever surprise you by going on a real hot streak. Guys like him never push a club anywhere. Young guys, even marginal ones like Daniel Murphy in 2008—before the league gets a good look at them—occasionally push you towards the postseason.
Other way around
Duda isn’t fast, but he’s definitely faster than Ike. He’d be a better defender in the outfield, and Ike is a better defender at 1B.
really?
i’d always heard Duda was a statue. Regardless IMO if they’re smart it’s something they’ll consider. But at this point I’m 100% certain we won’t even rule V protect him.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
Duda
I actually saw Duda play RF at one point in St. Lucie, and he was better than I expected. But Ike is really pretty slow. Duda is probably not even as fast as Murphy, but would still be a step ahead of Ike. In the outfield, he might not even be as good as Murphy, but I think at least better than Carter. He has more experience out there and at least would take better routes than Murphy. I honestly don’t think Ike in the outfield would be any better than Carter. It’s sort of the same equation, Ike is easily the best of the bunch at 1B. I believe Duda pitched in HS and at least has a decent arm.
As for rule 5, I think Duda is the one slam dunk to be protected. I do see him as a potential average big league regular in LF, even if that’s maybe a bit on the optimistic side, rather than an expected outcome. If that were a guy in A ball with that projection, you might not protect him, but being in AAA, it has to be obvious to them he’d be claimed.
are you sure
we are the mets. there’s a number of things that should be obvious to them.
plus why would they not call him up now over someone like F-mart if they were planning on adding him to the 40 in a few weeks anyway.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
Good question
I guess Fernando was already on the 40-man, and maybe they didn’t want to make a move yet to free a spot (despite at least a half dozen obvious ways they could). The other thought is he’d be taking time aways from Chris Carter, and maybe they have some delusion that they’ll actually be able to trade Carter for something.
Hey, the Red Sox traded him for Billy Wagner and 2 1st-round picks
If only there were someone equally foolish out there…
May you be locked in a battle of wits against Jerry Manuel.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Aug 16, 2010 10:51 PM EDT up reply actions
And Ike steals a base....
just when I was knocking his speed. :)
by acerimusdux on Aug 16, 2010 10:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, there wasn't a throw.
Surprised it wasn’t called defensive indifference.
May you be locked in a battle of wits against Jerry Manuel.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Aug 16, 2010 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Isn't defensive indifference only possible
when the team that steals the base is behind by more than 1 run?
Save Jenrry Mejia!
It looks like the only requirement is that the catcher not attempt a throw
Here’s what MLB.com has to say about it:
(g) The official scorer shall not score a stolen base when a runner advances solely because of the defensive team’s indifference to the runner’s advance. The official scorer shall score such a play as a fielder’s choice.
Rule 10.07(g) Comment: The scorer shall consider, in judging whether the defensive team has been indifferent to a runner’s advance, the totality of the circumstances, including the inning and score of the game, whether the defensive team had held the runner on base, whether the pitcher had made any pickoff attempts on that runner before the runner’s advance, whether the fielder ordinarily expected to cover the base to which the runner advanced made a move to cover such base, whether the defensive team had a legitimate strategic motive to not contest the runner’s advance or whether the defensive team might be trying impermissibly to deny the runner credit for a stolen base. For example, with runners on first and third bases, the official scorer should ordinarily credit a stolen base when the runner on first advances to second, if, in the scorer’s judgment, the defensive team had a legitimate strategic motive—namely, preventing the runner on third base from scoring on the throw to second base—not to contest the runner’s advance to second base. The official scorer may conclude that the defensive team is impermissibly trying to deny a runner credit for a stolen base if, for example, the defensive team fails to defend the advance of a runner approaching a league or career record or a league statistical title.
May you be locked in a battle of wits against Jerry Manuel.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Aug 17, 2010 2:38 AM EDT up reply actions
.
whether the fielder ordinarily expected to cover the base to which the runner advanced made a move to cover such base, whether the defensive team had a legitimate strategic motive to not contest the runner’s advance or whether the defensive team might be trying impermissibly to deny the runner credit for a stolen base
Pretty sure the 2B made a move for the bag but more importantly there would be no strategic motivation or advantage to just allow Ike to take second since the Astros were behind.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Davis
I think they should keep him at first, although I’d love to see what Duda can do. He’s fielded well, and although he’s slumped at bat since a decent start, this is basically his AAA season.
Considering the number of graduates, I am actually encouraged by the number of guys who have at least a shot of being contributors if not more. Aside from Kirk, Harvey and Flores, you have Duda, Ratliff, Lutz, campbell, havens if he can stay healthy, Cecialini, Vaughn, Aderlin Rodriguez, Puello, Satin, the other middle infielder organzational guy whose name escapes me right now, and it is kinda spread throughout levels. And I still think Tejada could eventually be ok, F!, Davis, Mejia, (the grads, along with Niese, who is as good as people insisted to me he was when he had a high 5 era early in Buff last year). familia had a bum year but has a live arm, Holt seemed to have something at one point that disappeared.
I wonder if Ratliff can be a Bobby Higginson type.
Jim Callis weighs in
Rob (Union, NJ): Jim, Does Matt Harvey become the Mets’ top pitching prospect (assuming Mejia loses his eligibility)? Also, what are your feelings on Greg Peavey? Thanks.
Jim Callis: Yes, Harvey does, pretty easily for me. Peavey was throwing 90 mph at age 14, creating a lot of excitement. He now sits at 88-92, so he didn’t really add that much velocity, but he still has solid stuff.
I'm honestly stunned that Familia is still leading
I guess we have a what have you done for me lately crowd voting here. 2 good starts after sucking for a long time and he’s our #5 prospect. At least if Holt had a good couple starts he has the past to point to that he has the ability to keep it going.
yeah I don't get it
he’s probably not in the top 5 of guys on that list I would consider voting for. I’m not sure I’d put him in our top ten at this point.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
Familia had a very good year last year as a 19 year old in FS-A ball
We had him as the #11 prospect in the system last year, and while I still have some digging to do, I’m really pretty happy with his season. Happier with his than Kyle Allen or Robert Carson’s, the two other guys who had big years in Savannah last year. First of all, his FIP (3.93) is over a run and a half better than his ERA (5.51), so that indicates some combination of poor fielding and bad luck behind him. But that’s only part of it, I really like that his strikeout rate against lefties has spiked so much. That fact, if its the result of the process I suspect it is, assuages a lot of my concern over the command problems. It could very well mean that he’s spent a good portion of the year developing a third pitch, probably his changeup, instead of simply trying to get guys out (after all, the minors are about development over results). Missing bats against lefties is a good indication that he’s having some success, and the lack of command is probably just a sign of how frequently he’s been using what is probably still his third best pitch. Even if he’s not commanding it, as long as its generating swings and misses, that’s a good sign that it has at least average upside, if not more. Either way, making his changeup into a usable weapon would go a long way towards increasing his chances of eventually being a SP at the major league level. Even without the last few starts, I would be encouraged, the recent positive results are just gravy at this point and some marginal evidence that his growing pains from most of the year could be starting to pay off. Compared to last year, I would say he’s improved his stock in slightly (if nothing else from last year’s list had changed aside from Familia’s 2010, I’d probably have moved up to #8 or #9), despite his struggles, both real and apparent. I wouldn’t be surprised if he takes off next year, especially if he’s given a few starts to prove himself back in the FSL early on before moving to Double-A.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 17, 2010 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions
And for reference
Of the 10 guys we put ahead of Familia in the book last year, half have graduated (Mejia, Niese, Davis, Thole, Tejada), four are already voted onto this list, and the other is Holt, whose stock as much more legitimately taken a nosedive IMO. Familia and Holt are probably pretty close right now, but I still think Familia is trending upwards while Holt has some serious damage control to do if he wants to reestablish himself. Harvey’s the only guy who wasn’t ahead of Familia on last year’s list who clearly deserves to be now. There are a few other guys in the conversation after Harvey, but I would almost definitely have Familia in this year’s Top 10.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 17, 2010 6:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Speaking of the book,
is the AA Annual still available from this site?
yep
go to the home screen and scroll down, it’ll be on your left
by Rob Castellano on Aug 17, 2010 10:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Alright, if things don't change much in the polls
I think I’m gonna do a three way playoff for the spot, with Familia, Harvey, and Duda.
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
Yeah, I'd close the polls at this point and have a run off
Especially since some people weren’t voting Harvey because of signability.
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