Mets Community Prospect List 2010: #5 RUN-OFF!!!

First, In Duda’s case, we have four full seasons of data suggesting a very large platoon split. There’s little variance in its degree, and its degree is large. Even taking Tom Tango’s advice and regressing it considerably in our projections leaves a large difference.

Second, of course its true that the majority of pitchers are right handed, but that’s a double edged sword. It also means that lefty batters have seen far fewer like handed pitchers in the past, especially when they were young and first learning the fundamentals of hitting. The result is that we often see much larger platoon splits in lefties than righties. Of course its still an advantage to be left handed, but that doesn’t make a platoon split meaningless. You would obviously rather have a guy who OPSes .800 vs. lefties and .600 vs. righties than .700 vs. both. But a platoon split isn’t necessarily a tactical tradeoff. A player with a platoon split is only better three quarters of the time relative to himself the other quarter of the time, not compared to any kind of baseline talent level. You’d still much prefer a guy OPSed .800 vs both.

Third, in terms of making offensive substitutions, the rules may favor the offense but rosters certainly don’t. When are bullpens shorter than benches? How many days in a season are there fewer than five pitchers available? That simply doesn’t seem true to me, especially when you consider most benches contain at least one or two hitters who are virtually useless offensively, at most just one or two who are at least average hitters, and at most usually just one lefty and one righty who is a significant offensive threat against his opposite. Having a Mike Hessman type, a guy who has a platoon split along with offensive value is nice to have on your bench, but you’re not going to PH a mediocre right handed hitter for someone like Ryan Howard or David Ortiz in a close game.

I don’t necessarily disagree that the significance of a left handed batter’s platoon split is less in degree than that of a right handed batter and perhaps less in degree than traditional wisdom suggests, but saying its meaningless is ignoring a very significant, pervasive, and interesting element of the game. If Lucas Duda looked like he could OPS even .700 at the major league level vs. LHP, it would effect his career projections pretty significantly. That could well be the difference between a Quad A/part-time masher carried on a major league roster for his bat and a solid everyday player who consistently plays 140 games a year and carries above average value. Just like a slick glove could make that difference for a SS without much bat, or positional versatility could make the difference in the career of a “tweener” type like Daniel Murphy.

outside of Niese and Davis, who’s been so-so to this point, none of our “graduates” actually look to have an impact this year or next, and none of the non graduates are particularly inspiring or close enough to really matter.

Both showed some flashes of it, but Holt’s tumble has been fast and hard and Havens can’t stay healthy. The failure to sign any big upside guys from last year’s draft crop didn’t help either, particularly those early-mid round arms that they let get away. .

Completely agree on all points though. Allen’s the only guy from last year’s Savannah crop whose really had a lost season, but he’s still got time. He was the least polished of the three in a lot of ways, but he’s also still the most gifted athletically. Sometimes that can be as much a stumbling block as an advantage for a young player being pushed to play against more advanced competition. Carson has the least upside of the three, but he’s still got a big live arm and nothing about his season was really disastrous, there just wasn’t anything particularly encouraging. There are things about Familia’s season that are pretty encouraging for the long term, even if the results have been ugly.

And the spending on player development is a reason that too often gets overlooked for the lack of spending in the draft. Its one of the things that would be an interesting topic of discussion if a new front office regime were put in place. Would they consider cutting either the GCL or K-Mets? I’ve always thought it was a bit redundant to have both, especially now that they have the Dominican Academy. That would seem to be the best way to quickly reallocate funds from player development to talent evaluation and procurement.

Part of it also seems to be that the Cyclones aren’t so much viewed as a player development club as much as a legit money-maker. The last couple years, the Clones have been loaded with older players, guys who might actually draw crowds, and rosters built to produce wins rather than future big leaguers. Its in pretty stark contrast to how all the other affiliates function.

and I don’t think scouting has been as much of a problem as who they scout.