Mets Community Prospect List 2010: #6
by squid92 on Aug 22, 2010 3:04 PM EDT
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PrintWelcome to the 2nd Annual Amazin' Avenue Mets Community Prospect List. Every poll will include eight candidates for the next spot on the list, as well as a separate group of testers. Testers will be rotated into polls with each new installation, replacing each poll's winner and any name that's not getting votes. After a few rounds, if a candidate on the ballot receives a decidedly low vote total , they'll be replaced on the ballot by a tester. But for the first couple polls, I won't remove candidates with these low totals.
After the poll, Jeurys Familia is the choice for #5 prospect in the Mets' system. Replacing him in the poll is Sean Ratliff. To recap:
- Wilmer Flores
- Kirk Nieuwenhuis
- Reese Havens
- Matt Harvey
- Jeurys Familia
- ???
The contenders:
Cesar Puello (19) A RF .292/.375/.359, 469 PAs
Aderlin Rodriguez (18) R (K) 3B .299/.338/.551, 228 PAs
Darrell Ceciliani (20) A- CF .351/.407/.514, 272 PAs
Juan Urbina (17) R (G) SP 45.1 IP, 5.16 ERA, 49 H, 12 BB, 37 K, 5 HR
Lucas Duda (24) AAA 1B/LF .314/.385/.641, 247 PAs (197 at AA)
Zach Lutz (24) AA 3B .284/.396/.600, 226 PAs
Dillon Gee (24) AAA SP 145.0 IP, 4.84 ERA, 155 H, 34 BB, 144 K, 19 HR
Sean Ratliff (23) AA OF .332/.371/.611, 246 PAs (242 at A+)
Testers: Robert Carson, Cory Vaughn, Brad Holt, Jefry Marte, Eddie "Ruff Rider" Kunz, Eric Campbell, Zach Dotson, Josh Satin, Jordany Valdespin, Matt den Dekker, Steven Matz
As always, voice opinions for the next ballot spot in the comments, and vote away.
This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions, reasoning skills, or attention to grammar and usage rules held by the editors of this site.
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Aderlin for me.
The power he is hitting for at that age is truly outstanding.
I really don’t get all the Duda love. A IF/OF corners guy (he does play 3B right?) who doesn’t play those positions particularly well and can’t hit left handed pitching… I mean, what’s the roof here, a very good bench/platoon player?
I bet Jerry Manuel just bunted.
I voted for Aderlin too, but there were a bunch of guys nearly identical in my eyes, Duda being one of them.
He only plays LF/1B, and that definitely hurts his ceiling, but there’s really no reason why he can’t be a productive major leaguer if the steps he made this year are for real. At the very least, he should be the backup plan if the Ike Davis experiment doesn’t turn out as we all hope it will, and he’d be the 2nd or 3rd best outfielder on our roster right now (depending on how Carlos does).
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
The drawbacks are real, but so's the growth
and remember we’re talking about the best hitter in the IL—at least for the moment. That’s impressive. Sure, the drawbacks might swallow the positives, but we’re also talking about a farm system that isn’t loaded with the kind of talent that makes for above average major leaguers. Duda has a fair shot at being that kind of player.
I don’t figure these are anyone’s reasons but mine, but I think Duda’s the real deal. He’s got a very good swing that’s easy to repeat, making him less susceptible to slumps, and he’s got the upside that I don’t think Thole, Davis, Martinez (how ever you want to classify them), and Tejada have—and he’s got the good health that Havens doesn’t have.
I agree I'm not really sure why everyone is so down on him
he’s not a 27 year old AAAA player mashing. he was a big time high school prospect and a pick scouts lived in the draft because of his upside, now he’s realizing that upside and no one’s impressed?
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
I don't know why Eddie Kunz is a tester
I wouldn’t place him in a top 100 Mets prospect list.
Gotta give it to Duda
If he can maintain his current progress he could be a nice asset. Baseball-reference shows him as serviceable in LF and he’s actually hitting better in the IL then he was at Binghamton except for his strike out rate. Ceciliani and Aderlin are probably right behind him though.
I also considered Lutz but the injury bug lowers his value for me somewhat
"I reject your reality and substitute my own"
-Adam Savage
by blueandorange4life on Aug 22, 2010 9:57 PM EDT reply actions
Crusade, huh? Interesting choice of word.
I’m less interested in discussing if certain prospect should be #5 or #8, and more on the reasons why people are voting for them.
i'm just messing with you
you’ve brought up a number of very good points
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
The injury bug stopped people from voting Havens over Nieuwenhuis...
And F! is only 21.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
I didn't
"I reject your reality and substitute my own"
-Adam Savage
by blueandorange4life on Aug 23, 2010 2:30 PM EDT up reply actions
also I think this was Michkin who pointed this out during the Carter discussions
but apparently because teams stick so many all bat no glove players in left field, left fielders defensive ratings can actually improve (since they’re all relative to the average or replacement level w/e) going from the minors to the majors.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
Yup. Here are the original paragraphs from the HT study:
For infielders, players perform worse, relative to the league, as they move up in levels. In other words, major league third basemen are better fielders than Triple-A third basemen, who are in turn better than players in the lower minors. For outfielders, the picture is less clear. For center fielders, the relative performance is relatively flat. Give or take a run or two, the average center fielder in Low A is about as good as the average major league center fielder. For corner outfielders, it appears that the quality of fielding, by looking at players who move up in levels, is lower as you move up in level, with major leaguers being the worst!
This was a bit hard for me to believe. There are some reasons that it could be possible—players lose speed relatively quickly, and outfield range is highly dependent on speed. Also, the lower levels of the minors use the DH in every game, which probably cuts down on the Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell types in minor league outfields. Another thing to consider is that players like Dunn were not the same lumbering plodders in the minors. At age 21, he was likely a good bit lighter on the scale and faster in the field. Major league outfielders, especially at the corners, are selected more for their bats than their gloves, and while having a lot of bulk muscle helps you hit for power, it does not help you chase down fly balls.
It depends if the prospect was really an OF (and can stick there) or if he is projected to grow and lose mobility.
Well Duda's like 23/24 isn't he
so I imagine he’s not going to grow much more. But if he’s posting averagish defensive ratings now he should at least be able to not be a nightmare in the outfield.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
Which really isn't all that bad of a trade-off
assuming he keeps hitting and doesn’t have a Jason Bay-ish welcome to Citifield power outage
"I reject your reality and substitute my own"
-Adam Savage
by blueandorange4life on Aug 23, 2010 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions
eh
if you watch him play the guy is no better than chris carter defensively and i’d say probably worse. he made a couple of goddawful plays in yesterday’s game, the kind that got dan murphy moved back into the IF.
not only does he have little to no natural feel for the outfield but he’s just too big/slow, he looks like adam dunn out there. he’s absolutely the kind of player that you guys are referring to who drags down the replacement level fielding numbers as a slugger who happens to be playing left.
by Rob Castellano on Aug 23, 2010 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Haha it's always good to read a first hand scouting report on prospects.
Chris Carter has a +47 UZR/150 in RF! No wonder Duda is worse than him
can't be worse than Francouer
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
by feslenraster on Aug 26, 2010 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
I think you should add Brad Holt to the contenders
He had a terrible year but he still has potential as a prospect.
Gas prices today are a lot like a pitcher's ERA. Anything under 3 is amazing, under 4 is pretty good and anything 5 and up is something you want to avoid.
by Bobby Baseball on Aug 22, 2010 10:06 PM EDT reply actions
Sure
I was debating between him and Cory Vaughn for the next spot on the ballot anyways, so unless anyone has a compelling reason for Vaughn, I’ll go Holt next.
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
Doesn't matter much to me
I’d say the next 10 guys I’m voting for are already up there somewhere. And the next 3 are already on the poll. But I’d like Carson on the poll before too long, and the next guy I’d have that isn’t yet on the testers is Kyle Allen.
yeah this is my reason for Duda
upside is nice but when it’s 2-3 years away I feel like they can get overrated easily and people tend to forget how easy it is for prospects to be totally derailed between low/high A ball to AAA even. Someone completing dominating offensively in AAA at 24 isn’t something to take lightly.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
Right, which is why I didn't give it to Aderlin or Cecilliani
As good as they have been playing in short season, I’ll take the guy mashing AAA who has also mashed consistently through the system at other levels. Cecilliani also doesn’t profile power numbers as high as Duda if that is the sort of thing that matters to you, more like an Angel Pagan/Carl Crawford type. That is nothing to be ashamed of though
"I reject your reality and substitute my own"
-Adam Savage
by blueandorange4life on Aug 23, 2010 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
There are so many top prospects that end up
career minor league players
Duda’s bat is major league ready defense is probably average corner outfielder or slightly below average but he can be a major league player which we don’t know about Cecilliani Aderln or Puello. The next pick is going to be interesting though with Gee being the only AAA player left. Although he has had a good season and will be a major leaguer I’m tempted to put Urbina and Matz ahead of him along with Cecilliani. We shall see what the community thinks
But you just said major league player>upside
and Urbina and Matz are a hell of a lot more unsure than Ceciliani or probably even Puello/Aderlin
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
eh
I’d say we’re you’re talking about players that much lower there’s not much of a difference. I wouldn’t really consider Urbina and Matz any more of unsure things than other guys well in the low minors. Especially when one of them is a college bat with a pretty meh track record.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
oh ignore the college bat thing
for some reason I keep lumping Ceciliani in with the 2010 draft class
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
True it is a bit hypocritical
but it’s all low ball. Also I just want some more pitching prospects on this list and if TJ can add some velocity to Matz he could be a nice piece.
I was reading in one of the other threads about trading F-Mart. Since we are kind of stacked with corner outfielders in the minors we really should think about trading him for some pitching depth. I bet we could still get something valuable for him.
Not to nitpick
but TJ doesn’t add MPH or arm strength. It’s the recovery process and rehab work that adds arm strength and possible MPH.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Are we really stacked with corner outfielders?
Captain Kirk and F-mart have been so-so. Duda may be a DH and Evans can only hit lefties. Who else is there? Puello I guess but he’s obviously very far away and I wouldn’t really count anyone below AA as part of the discussion when you’re talking about being stacked at a position.
Also I agree about pitching prospects, though our best bet is to probably have one emerge from anonymity like Niese did back in 08. If they’re too big a name the front office will find a way to totally screw them up.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
We'll we have Bay signed for at least 3 more years
After Beltran leave in 2011 lets say Pagan plays center that will leave one spot for Duda Nick Evans, Carter, Capt Kirk, Ratliff, Feliciano, Puello, and Vaughn
I guess none of them really have the upside of F! except Duda (power potential). Kirk and Ratliff will provide better defense. We should def trade someone in this group but I guess it’s not stacked. Most likely we will trade Carter or Evans, but without F-150 we still have enough depth to cover the position as opposed to any other position we have except 3rd.
Eh my point is more
when you have a bunch of so-so guys you need as many as possible to maximize the chance you actually get a productive every day player. So it doesn’t really make any sense to move one now and lower our chances.
Also I’d be extremely worried about Bay’s long-term prognosis he may be signed but I don’t think we can just assume we can pencil him in for the next 3 years. Concussions can wreak havoc. So we’re basically looking at a 27 year old, a only hits lefty guys, a bunch of low level players anywhere from 2-4 years away and F-mart and Duda, one who may not be able to hit and one who may not be able to field. One concussed started and one gimpy one who’s likely only going to be here for one more year. I’d say we don’t have depth as much as a bunch of question marks.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
What I more meant
was if we could get a comparable ranked pitching prospect for F-150 it may be a prudent move.
With that said, F!’s stock is down and Omar will probably make a poor choice if he were to deal him, but I think there will be some deal that will involve some minor league outfielders.
oh I agree about swapping him for a comparably ranked
pitching prospect. Because our pitching depth makes babies cry.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
i would make a snarky comment
but this is no laughing matter
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
I think part of the question is how you define prospect
I know it’s usually used to describe the player who has the most potential to contribute at the Major League level. Following that, Duda looks to have the most potential because he’s been very good at AAA; is he the best “toolsy” player in the poll? No. But he seems to be the one that looks like he will contribute the most because he’s played very well in AA and AAA
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
That means a lot less in the minors.
All that means is that he’s consistently making good contact against pitchers that are inferior to him. And that’s even leaving aside the controversial mess that is hitter BABIP…
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
I voted Duda
simply based on his numbers…and the fact that he’s one of the rare Mets prospects that has some understanding of the strike zone!
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
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