Pirates 2, Mets 1: Revenge Of The Lastings
by James Kannengieser on Aug 22, 2010 4:38 PM EDT
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Lastings Milledge hit a game-tying solo homer off Johan Santana in the fifth inning, then helped preserve the win with a fine catch in the ninth. The Mets wasted a prime opportunity to leave Pittsburgh with a sweep, as Hojo's Motivational Serum wore off after just two days. The lineup accounted for just six hits and three walks. Although Met batters did seem to have bad luck all day, with David Wright, Ruben Tejada and Chris Carter among those victimized by poorly placed line drives.
Pirates starter Zach Duke has confounded the Mets throughout his career. He now has a 2.91 ERA in 46.1 innings against our heroes, with an excellent K/BB rate of 25:6. The image of a young Duke owning Cliff Floyd and co. in August 2005 at Shea Stadium will forever be ingrained in my memory, for whatever reason.
Johan was dominant, even considering the two solo homers he allowed (the second, decisive dinger was hit by Jose Tabata in the sixth). He tallied nine strikeouts, one walk and 18 swinging strikes in an eight-inning, complete game performance. That makes four home runs allowed in his last two games, which isn't a big surprise considering how low his home run-to-flyball rate is this season (5.0% entering today's action). His career rate is 9.0%. Regression happens.
I watched the last four innings on a treadmill at the gym. Three machines down from me was a guy wearing a black Pirates shirt. When the Pirates recorded the final out, he let loose a small, barely noticeable fist pump. No grunting, no screaming. I have to admit, I was sort of happy for him. Eighteen consecutive losing seasons must take its toll on a fan. Watching the Pirates salvage a win against Johan and the Mets probably made his Sunday.
The Metsies are 11.5 games behind the NL East leading Braves, and 8.5 games back of the Wild Card leading Phillies. The chance of making the playoffs, per Baseball Prospectus, is 0.95%. The Mets will try to raise that percentage this week at home against the Marlins and Astros. Monday is an off day, but Tuesday's pitching matchup is R.A. Dickey vs Josh Johnson.
Haiku by Howard Megdal
The homer reminds me: I miss Lastings Milledge
Though former Mets, now stars, could fill a whole village
Santana will take loss, but even with Thole
Met offense deserves blame for production unholy
SB Nation Coverage
* Traditional Recap
* Boxscore
* Amazin' Avenue Gamethread
* Bucs Dugout Gamethread
Win Probability Added
Big winners: Johan Santana +9.0% (as pitcher), Ike Davis +9.0%
Big losers: Angel Pagan -14.3%, Jeff Failcoeur -11.4%
Teh aw3s0mest play: Ike Davis single +11.5%
Teh sux0rest play: Jose Tabata home run -19.0%
Total pitcher WPA: +9.0%
Total batter WPA: -59.0%
GWRBI!: Jose Tabata
Game Thread Roll Call
Nice job by MookieTheCat; his effort in the game thread embiggens us all.
| Num | Name | # of Posts |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | MookieTheCat | 64 |
| 2 | BrockRocks | 51 |
| 3 | JetsMetsNets | 48 |
| 4 | Michkin | 45 |
| 5 | metsguy234 | 39 |
| 6 | NetsMets4Life | 37 |
| 7 | Mike Clemente | 35 |
| 8 | itsmetsforme | 31 |
| 9 | TMS | 28 |
| 10 | AnthonyR | 23 |
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Comments
Always fun when our kabillion dollar man
gets beat by solo shots by former Met and Yankee top prospects.
Zach Duke of the 5.33 ERA and 1.617 WHIP?
THAT Zach Duke?
Not sure why
but we’ve NEVER hit that guy
"Those who fear disorder more than injustice inevitably produce more of both." -- Rev. William Coffin
Thanks
for reminding me that the mets are a single a team
by ILikeIke#29 on Aug 23, 2010 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions
except the Mets end up
not hitting a lick…AGAIN. so what happened to the sudden offensive “outburst”?
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
ask gbaked.
He’s certain that HoJo is taking the right approach.
The guy made one comment in which he said Hojo was likely not as much at fault as we all make him out to be,
and he also mantioned that he’s not sure he’s the right guy for the job. He may be right, he may not, but he never said anything implying he’s certain Hojo is taking the right approach. Trying to pick fights by making fun of other posters is just trollish behavior…If you had an issue with him in another thread leave it there.
Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...
by Stephen Schmidt on Aug 22, 2010 6:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Where is that epic troll thread again?
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Aug 23, 2010 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions
David Wright
New on the post, but have a question for the sabremetricians, from whom I have learned a great deal — thank you.
How streaky is Wright? My impression is very, very much, but is there a measure of variance around wOBA or something that would suggest how far out on the curve he really is?
(I suppose a second question would be the wins value of consistency vs same output in greater clumps?)
Kind of a tricky question from a sabermetric standpoint
it is pretty difficult to quantify “streakiness” in the short term. Every player is streaky to some extent (nobody goes 1-3 every day), so streakiness becomes somewhat subjective. Since you can set the start and endpoint of a hot or cold streak wherever you like because there is no formal definition, the person defining the streak brings their own bias into it (you can pick the start and end points to make it look good or bad).
Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?
by KeithsMoustache on Aug 22, 2010 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions
also if you streak
You will be tasered
Hey !. Don't talk to my mami like that.
by fxcarden on Aug 22, 2010 6:07 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I see what you did there.
Consequences will never be the same.
by NetsMets4Life on Aug 22, 2010 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions
KeithsM
I was thinking of the range of variance around the seasonal average to bound the analysis. No picking your favorite high and low points. DW batted something like 400-450 in June I think, way less now — altho recent optimistic, well a few, signs. Stats often give surprising results tho. If his standard deviation isn’t hugely different it would be interesting; and confirming of impressions if it is.
See my post below.
I don’t think picking random dates is right, and months are a social, not baseball, construct. By graphing out overall stats day by day you can see where things go up and down and use those for your start and stop points. I think by overlaying graphs you get a better sense of times where maybe someone isn’t getting on base as much but is hitting with more power, or where sacs play a greater role in his game. It’s a tough thing to do, but….
by MookieTheCat on Aug 23, 2010 1:05 AM EDT up reply actions
The problem there is your seasonal average usually takes at least half a season to start to stabilize
so until then early season is going to look much streakier than late season unless you use the previous seasons average which doesn’t take any changes that may have occurred over the offseason into account.
Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?
by KeithsMoustache on Aug 23, 2010 1:46 PM EDT up reply actions
If you are serious about this
There are a couple of PDFs on the web that discuss this topic although I don’t think they are considered Sabremetrics per se. I hope you like math :-)
Using Model/Data Simulations to Detect Streakiness
I would recommend looking at chapter 4 in the second link first, it has a nice method of charting a players moving average.
Just looking at Wright’s monthly splits this year is enough to say that the chart will be pretty crazy. IMO, probably every Mets chart would look crazy except for Pagan.
by George_Sloan on Aug 22, 2010 6:28 PM EDT up reply actions
George Sloan
The two links had (very interesting) 99 and 08 articles on streakiness — the Bayesian analysis ones. I didn’t see the link with a ‘chapter 4 charting players’ moving averages. If you get this, would you mind resending that link. (crmorris@crmorris.com).
And, yes, I see the problem is more complex than I thought. I was pretty good in calc, but 50 years ago. Could follow article logic but wouldn’t attempt to replicate. Appreciate your taking the time.
Good first post.
You need not be a sabremetrician. It will take some work, but anyone with a basic grasp of high school math can figure this out, at least on a basic level. If you have the time, go through game stats and compile basic AB info in Excel or elsewhere, so that you can crunch numbers later. You can eyeball streakiness by graphing out his day-to-day wOBA, for example, or using a number of other stats. Although they will not change much from day to day, overall you can see trends, dips and rises. These dips and rises, at least vis a vis stats calculated for the season, will tend to be more drastic earlier in the season when the sample sizes are small (i.e. the same change + or – is more significant later in the season because there are more PAs involved). Once you’ve eyeballed the points where the graph trends up or down, you can use these dates to do all sorts of analyses on the websites bandied about here.
by MookieTheCat on Aug 23, 2010 1:02 AM EDT up reply actions
yep, you can get it all from fangraphs.com
by secret defense on Aug 23, 2010 1:07 AM EDT up reply actions
I know...
But I find that when I crunch numbers by hand I notice things that may be apparent from a really close review of fangraphs but most folks will miss by just looking at a chart. prepared by someone else (in a sense you overlay your own data and notice patterns). I went through Castillo’s boxscore entriesa few weeks back and beyond what I was looking for I noticed that every multihit game he had in the time period I was looking at was in a game where the Mets could not score. This told me a lot more than just the graph, and caused me to look at when he got those hits. He got them when they were useless. This told me a lot more than I could get from fangraphs.
by MookieTheCat on Aug 23, 2010 1:15 AM EDT up reply actions
M the Cat et al
Thanks to all on this. I will start hacking at it.
Hack away....
If you have any questions, ask HoJo :P
by MookieTheCat on Aug 23, 2010 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Without Barajas here to hit HRZZZ, what did we really expect?
Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...
by Stephen Schmidt on Aug 22, 2010 6:22 PM EDT reply actions
First game I'v completely missed in a while
I would call it a guilty pleasure. Let’s see: we lost and scored 1 run off a 5-12 pitcher with our ace on the mound. Sounds like our season in a nutshell
Is Lastings Milledge and his actions personally responsible for the obvious
lack of African-Americans on all levels of play throughout the Met system.Have the Mets even drafted any Black players in the last few years.Not to mention Eskimos and Gays.
..........what?
i can think of quite a few. and cory vaughn, off the top of my head, was drafted in the 4th round.
Cory Vaughn
sure doesn’t sound like an Eskimo name. Sounds like a character from Major League.
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
by itsmetsforme on Aug 23, 2010 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree
With their first round pick next year, they should draft an openly gay Eskimo.
If there's ever a riot at Citi Field and Oliver Perez was the starter, I started the riot.
by meigs1414 on Aug 22, 2010 9:57 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
not that there's anything snow with that
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
by itsmetsforme on Aug 23, 2010 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions
That's a pretty smurfy joke.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Aug 23, 2010 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions
And openly gay African-American Eskimo.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Aug 23, 2010 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions
I guess Blastings won the contest between himself and Failcoeur.
Ho hum.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Aug 22, 2010 9:16 PM EDT reply actions
The highly anticipated meeting
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Aug 23, 2010 1:37 AM EDT up reply actions
they'd be Starship!
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
by itsmetsforme on Aug 22, 2010 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions
people liked them in the 60s for some reason
but they turned into a joke after the 80s. that was my reasoning.
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
by itsmetsforme on Aug 23, 2010 12:06 AM EDT up reply actions
wait, which band are you refering to?
Jefferson Starship?
by secret defense on Aug 23, 2010 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah
i think they went from being known as “Jefferson Starship” to just “Starship” in their cheesy 80s days, if i’m not mistaken. Like John Cougar Melloncamp.
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
by itsmetsforme on Aug 23, 2010 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions
Oh I got cofused because their wiki page says they formed in the 70's
by secret defense on Aug 23, 2010 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions
are you going to believe me or your lying eyes?
my mistake—they were formed as Jefferson Airplane in the 60s, later Jef Star later Starship. Maybe Jefferson MuleRide in the 1760s for all I know.
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
by itsmetsforme on Aug 23, 2010 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions
oh okay
like I said I’m just reading off the wiki page and watching their youtube songs.
by secret defense on Aug 23, 2010 12:40 AM EDT up reply actions
We got into an argument about this on AA once and here is what I discovered....
Some members of Jefferson Airplane (but not all) started Jefferson Starship when the former went bust. By the time they got to their We Built This City Days there were no original band members involved and they actually forced Starship to drop the “Jefferson” part of their name to distance themselves from what the band had become.
by MookieTheCat on Aug 23, 2010 1:09 AM EDT up reply actions
Actually, they were "Jefferson Airplane" before they became anything else
Hey !. Don't talk to my mami like that.
Ah...Yeah.
Much better question. My guess is that this is your brain on drugs.
by MookieTheCat on Aug 23, 2010 2:43 AM EDT up reply actions
We need to win a couple of games this week
and get that playoff probability back up to 1% so people take us seriously
We don't even have A PERCENT chance to make the playoffs?
Everyone is entitled to be stupid, but Jerry abuses the privilege.
that sounds high to me
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
by itsmetsforme on Aug 23, 2010 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions
What in the name of balls is that haunting image?
by HotChipWillBreakYourLegs on Aug 22, 2010 11:27 PM EDT reply actions
Reviews of the Cyde, via Wikipedia
Brokencyde has been universally panned by critics. Metal Edge magazine has called Brokencyde “fucking horrendous”.14 “Thrash Magazine” has called them “a mockery to the world of music”. Cracked.com contributor Michael Swaim said the band sounded like “a Slipknot-Cher duet”.15 16 British commentator Warren Ellis calls Brokencyde’s “FreaXXX” music video “a near-perfect snapshot of everything that’s shit about this point in the culture”.
by James Kannengieser on Aug 22, 2010 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions
my favorite review of their music, via LA Times
The “Albucrazy”-based band has done for MySpace emo what some think Soulja Boy did for hip-hop: turn their career into a kind of macro-performance art that exists so far beyond the tropes of irony and sincerity that to ask “are they kidding?” is like trying to peel an onion to get to a perceived central core that, in the end, does not exist and renders all attempts to reassemble the pieces futile.
by secret defense on Aug 22, 2010 11:46 PM EDT up reply actions
no truth to the rumor
that Brokencyde is working on both a new version of Meet the Mets AND Frenchy’s pre-bat music.
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
by itsmetsforme on Aug 23, 2010 12:01 AM EDT up reply actions
ugh..thats barely even funny they are so terrible.
Not to mention these assclowns use auto tune, the most pathetic thing in music.
Consequences will never be the same.
by NetsMets4Life on Aug 23, 2010 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions
ah, you got me.
but thats about it.
Consequences will never be the same.
by NetsMets4Life on Aug 23, 2010 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions
why do you keep doing this to me?
NoOOOooOOOoo. I just want to live the rest of my life.
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
by itsmetsforme on Aug 23, 2010 12:27 AM EDT up reply actions
what? thats actually funny
Consequences will never be the same.
by NetsMets4Life on Aug 23, 2010 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Antoine Dodson is an estabilished AA hero
in case you don’t get the song, here’s the original source
by secret defense on Aug 23, 2010 1:01 AM EDT up reply actions
ah thanks. Did they ever catch him?
i mean whoever is responsible for Antoine’s hair of course.
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
by itsmetsforme on Aug 23, 2010 1:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Well whoever he was, he was clearly dumb....
They got his fingerprints, and they are looking for him.
by MookieTheCat on Aug 23, 2010 2:10 AM EDT up reply actions
You want to hear a good version of Meet the Mets...
Download a free copy of Paulstretch and stretch the original 60s Meet the Mets 8×. It’s what some guy did to Justin Beiber to turn his music into a 35 minute anthem of awesome (featured on Gawker a few days ago). I did it but the program messed up when I tried to render it into a new mp3. Still, worth a listen, and a fine metaphor for what the past 2 months have felt like…
by MookieTheCat on Aug 23, 2010 1:11 AM EDT up reply actions
Regression happens...
Do you have a split between home/road fly ball-HR stats? I would have to imagine that Citi Field would operate against the trend you note, and it seems strange to me in light of Citi Field.
LOL....
Yeah thought so. So in other words his low figures this year may just be a result of Citi. I wonder what his splits were at Shea. Ah, but I’m too lazy to look it up.
by MookieTheCat on Aug 23, 2010 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
They were pretty normal
In 2008, Santana gave up 12 HR in 120 innings at Shea, and 11 HR in 114 innings on the road.
So either Citi is a massive suppressant for HRs, or Santana is due for a large amount of regression at home.
There is no hope.... there is no future....there is only GRISSIONZ
The 2010 Mets- Hey, we may suck, but what did you expect?
im pretty sure shea inflated hr totals in 08
because the construction of citi changed the wind patterns or something.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
The chance of making the playoffs, per Baseball Prospectus, is 0.95%?
That high? Really?
"Never throw a slider to The Glider."
- Ed Charles, No. 5
"Who has more fun than people?"
- Ralph Kiner
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