Mets Community Prospect List 2010: #8
by squid92 on Aug 27, 2010 9:00 PM EDT
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PrintWelcome to the 2nd Annual Amazin' Avenue Mets Community Prospect List. Every poll will include eight candidates for the next spot on the list, as well as a separate group of testers. Testers will be rotated into polls with each new installation, replacing each poll's winner and any name that's not getting votes. After a few rounds, if a candidate on the ballot receives a decidedly low vote total , they'll be replaced on the ballot by a tester. But for the first couple polls, I won't remove candidates with these low totals.
After the poll, Darrell Ceciliani is the choice for #7 prospect in the Mets' system with 23% of the votes.. Replacing him in the poll is Brad Holt, and Armando Rodriguez has been added to the testers. To recap:
- Wilmer Flores
- Kirk Nieuwenhuis
- Reese Havens
- Matt Harvey
- Jeurys Familia
- Lucas Duda
- Darrell Ceciliani
- ???
The contenders:
Cesar Puello (19) A RF .292/.375/.359, 469 PAs
Aderlin Rodriguez (18) R (K) 3B .300/.337/.536, 243 PAs
Juan Urbina (17) R (G) SP 48.1 IP, 5.03 ERA, 54 H, 14 BB, 38 K, 5 HR
Zach Lutz (24) AA 3B .286/.393/.583, 243 PAs
Dillon Gee (24) AAA SP 151.2 IP, 4.87 ERA, 161 H, 36 BB, 150 K, 22 HR
Sean Ratliff (23) AA OF .338/.385/.624, 261 PAs (242 at A+)
Cory Vaughn (21) A- OF .306/.399/.546, 271 PAs
Brad Holt (23) A+ SP 56.2 IP, 7.15 ERA, 58 H, 46 BB, 50 K, 4 HR (30.0 even worse IP at AA)
Testers: Robert Carson, Jefry Marte, Eric Campbell, Zach Dotson, Josh Satin, Jordany Valdespin, Matt den Dekker, Steven Matz, Kyle Allen, Wilfredo Tovar, Eddie "Ruff Rider" Kunz, Armando Rodriguez
As always, voice opinions for the next ballot spot in the comments, and vote away.
This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions, reasoning skills, or attention to grammar and usage rules held by the editors of this site.
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Average age
of the Penn league I think is around 21; average age of the EL is I think 24. Vaughn is playing better over more PAs I go with him. Outside of the unique plate discipline/speed combo for Puello though, I don’t see the love for him.
Maybe people are expecting him to be like a Carl Crawford?
by Criss Angel Couldn't Make Frenchy Vanish on Aug 27, 2010 11:31 PM EDT reply actions
He's 19 and in Savannah, that's still pretty impressive.
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
Perhaps
I would just hope that given his speed he could maybe boost his SLG to .380+. Perhaps he just needs to learn how to drive the ball more.
by Criss Angel Couldn't Make Frenchy Vanish on Aug 28, 2010 1:08 AM EDT up reply actions
He's overmatched in that department
but the fact that he’s still putting up a good OBP is definitely encouraging.
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
does he really have 22 hbp? wow
Just looked it up, you’re right. The funny thing is he’s on a slower pace than last year… maybe the control isn’t there? Or, he stands on the plate and leans in, aka Chase Utley.
If he became Chase Utley I’d be happy. As long as he was less of a douchebag.
by Criss Angel Couldn't Make Frenchy Vanish on Aug 28, 2010 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
The person I know who is the best at getting hit by Utley
and from 07-09 he averaged between 24-28 PA/HBP, which is pretty consistent. He’s down this year, but all of his stats are down, so I don’t know how much weight to put into that.
by Criss Angel Couldn't Make Frenchy Vanish on Aug 28, 2010 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions
I think Rob Castellano brought this up a while back
IIRC he thought is odd as well, obviously, but didn’t rule out the possibility that there just might be some obscure type of skill at work.
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Yeah, someone brought up Utley in that discussion, too
For a few guys, it might be a repeatable skill. Look at Ron Hunt, Don Baylor, or Craig Biggio. Some guys just get plunked a lot. I’d rather they draw walks, but as long as they’re getting on base…
May you be locked in a battle of wits against Jerry Manuel.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Aug 28, 2010 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I tend to agree
on all counts.
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Hey...
Getting on base is getting on base. Just wear elbow and shin guards.
by MookieTheCat on Aug 28, 2010 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't really see how being young and rushed
by a front office that rushes everyone is impressive
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
Also it would probably be more telling
if we saw what the average age for IFA’s(or even of real prospects not organizational guys) in each level was, since they come into systems 2 years younger than their high school counter parts, so they have 2 more years of professional baseball training than high school students, I imagine they arrive at levels a year or two earlier and the avg age doesn’t really accurately reflect where they are in terms of development/learning curve.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
Am I wrong?
Despite the wisdom of moving him that quickly, he’s still putting up a respectable line. The power is definitely far behind, but scouts say he should develop it sooner or later, and the plate discipline is very impressive for that age and level.
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
The power will likely come once his body fills out.
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I just don't see
what exactly “he’s over matched but putting up a respectable line” means. We’ve heard it multiple times with prospects but has it ever actually ended up in actual production or results? What players, in or out of our system, had the same argument as their biggest calling card to their prospect status and went on to be above average players, in the majors or even upper minors? Is he a decent upside prospect sure, but I just don’t see why he should be seen as one of our top prospects at this point, maybe one of our top guys we want to watch.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
Robinson Cano has a career .756 minor league OPS in 1930 ABs
McCutchen had a .783 OPS in 1967 ABs
Jose Bernabe Reyes and his .761 OPS in 1303 ABs
I’m sure there are others.
Jose Reyes OPS isn't any different than his career major league OPS
he’s just a short stop so it’s okay. Won’t be the same for a right fielder. Same with McClutchen really, but since they play premium positions and create on the base paths the low OPS is okay. Puello playing right field and apparently filling out won’t have that luxury, so the comparison doesn’t really make sense.
And I’d put money they’re are way more players that never amounted to anything than those that did.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
I'm wondering too, what kind of hitter Reyes might have turned into
if he hadn’t been rushed the way he was and had been given a full extra year in the mnors to work on his plate discipline. It’s the weakest part of his game.
There certainly wasn’t anything irreplaceable about his first 1250 PAs with the Mets, and it’s cost them a nice chunk of change.
He'd probably be a closer to league ave. BB% wise
and maybe increase his power potential a bit in the process.
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Using Reyes' career major league numbers is a bit foolish
He’s a vastly different player from 06 on. His OPS since 06 is over 100 points higher than it was from 03-05, he was still developing into the star player that he’s become. And yes, you are 100% correct in saying there are more players who never amounted to anything that did. I’d say there are probably more players who tore up the minors and never amounted to much than there were players who tore up the minors and did become stars.
The comparisons I was making was to show that just because players didn’t dominate the minors, doesn’t mean they can’t or won’t become major league regulars. And with Puello, you’re being unfair. You’re saying he’ll lose value with his speed once he fills out, but not giving him credit for the power he should add with it. If you’re gonna dock him stolen bases, at least add some home runs. Or, to be safe, lets judge what he can do now instead of trying to guess what he’ll morph into.
Reyes hasn't really been a vastly different player from 06 on
He has two years of .800+ OPS and two years of 750-760 OPS’s.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
...except adjusted for the league, he's a much better hitter
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
um what?
this is the only year offense has dropped off enough for a .750 OPS to be much better, and it hasn’t dropped all that much. it’s gone from being exactly league average to like one decimal point away from league average, or like 101 instead of 100 in OPS+. I’m not sure that’s really “much better”
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
A 102 OPS+ = a .775 OPS in 2007.
In 2010 you can buy a 101 OPS+ with a .748 OPS. That’s a significant drop in offense.
that more than likely means 07 was
a random spike, .745-.755 has been league average for the majority of the last decade. this is the first year there’s been a major drop off.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
Yup. It also means Jose is pretty much the same hitter in 2007
as he is this year, which suggests that if he can get the rest of his game back, he may get his peak back. At least, it’s more promising than it would be if he was simply no longer the hitter he was in his prime.
Well yeah I agree
but we’re talking about what it means in terms of Ceasar Puello but Jose. I’m saying that using a short stop, even an elite one, as an example of Puello, a right fielders, future offense doesn’t really tell you anything. Unless Puello is Carl Crawford in right field a league average bat doesn’t really get you much.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
Well we already know he has a great arm
and is supposed to have above average speed and range, so good D shouldn’t be outside the realm of possibility, but in fact likely. Now will it be Crawford level? No one can say yet as he’s only 19, but I like his chances.
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He has average speed and range
but like I said the mets are expecting him to get much much bigger, and I posted pics to show how big he already is. Which is why I don’t think it’s all that likely he’s going to be a ++ fielder in the majors.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
Just finished reading a piece from
MetsMinorLeagueBlog written on the 5th of this month. Highlights include:
Nice arm but plays higher because of his accuracy.
Great speed and SB ability; 83% success rate.
Smart; recognizes the need to be patient with the bat and with his approach.
Doesn’t mind getting dirty as long as the job gets done.
Has very nice range in the field.
Puts on a show in BP, just hasn’t shown it yet in-game.
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Yeah I understand he has nice range now
my point is more than since he’s expected to fill out even more than he already has it’s unlikely he still has nice range by the time he’s 22-23. for example Miguel Cabrera and Hanley Ramirez. Cabrera came up playing cf and Hanley was actually an average to positive fielder in the minors.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
Well, if he's hitting like Miggy or Hanley
he hardly needs to be a plus fielder, does he
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
yeah but the point is kind of it's
not that likely he’ll hit like them, because frankly it’s not that likely anyone will hit like them. It is likely however that he’s going to be the size of a tree at the rate he’s going.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
I could've sworn Cabrera came up a 3B
was moved to LF, back to 3B all by the Marlins, and then finally to 1B by the Tigers.
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according to minor league reference
he was apparently actually an SS in the minors, then 3b
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
Wow
the Flores comp is even more appropriate.
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Speed
Toby Hyde has him having plus plus speed there:
Scouts grade him at 70 or above on the 20-80 scouting scale
That’s a lot more than average speed.
by acerimusdux on Aug 29, 2010 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah I get that
But like I said multiple times I’m talking about in terms of projecting him in the future it’s unlikely he’s going to keep that speed as he gets bigger.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
Hyde also writes that his running style is
a power stride (like a linebacker – or my comparison, like how a 6-4, 230lbs. centerman can still skate like the wind). That sounds to me like something that’ll stick around even when he fills out.
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This is the Mets were talking about
Who knows?
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yeah no one seems to know
every report says he has great speed, though I’ve heard he takes awful jumps, but no one seems to understand why the mets have him in rf. It seems to be because he’s going to get even more massive, but in that case why don’t they do the same with Flores, or why didn’t they with Havens and F-mart?
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
If he's that fast ...
If he’s stealing 45 bases and being graded at 70+ speed, I think even if he slows a bit he’ll still be a plus runner. And in the scenario where he fills out, the power should develop.
So maybe we’re talking about a guy who when he gets there isn’t really a burner, but still a 20/20 RF type with good defense and 5 average or better tools.
And while range factor isn’t a perfect measure, his 2.21 RF/G is pretty impressive for a corner OF at that level and easily the best in that league this year.
by acerimusdux on Aug 30, 2010 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I still don't get why he's not in CF
Are the Mets that confident he will fill out and won’t be able to handle CF?
It literally make no sense
They treat Flores, Martinez, and Havens one way but Puello they handle in the complete opposite.
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also I've said this before
and I’m dead serious. I’m about 98% sure the mets “scouting” for fielding consists of them looking at a guys measurements and deciding from that what kind of fielder he is.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
I wrote that before I read Toby Hyde's piece.
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Fwiw
Reyes’s OPS+ since 2003
102, 65, 81, 115, 102, 118, 100, 101.
No surprise, his clear, peak years were his third, fourth, and fifth years, where his WAR was above 5.0 every year. He was able to keep the peak going in 2007 because he was so durable (765 PAs!), kept his OBP in the 350s, and stole 78 bases along with some pretty fine baserunning.
Oh come on
You know that’s not fair.
‘03 – ’05 OPS = .698.
’06 -’10 OPS = .800.
I bet Jerry Manuel just bunted.
And dude has a .360 wOBA in A ball at 19 years old
That’s well into good territory, not just respectable.
I'm guessing that's from FirstInning?
I’m looking at FanGraphs
I like FirstInning for some things, but it’s not as reliable. For example, they have his OBP at .366, while MILB and FanGraphs both have it at .375.
first innings isn't not reliable
fangraphs just includes base running in their wOBA. Which is why Puello’s is so high, but since he’s expected to massively fill out there’s little to no chance he keeps up the stolen base numbers.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
As long as we're projecting things
When he massively fills out he’ll probably add power.
And just to comment on FirstInning, they also have his stolen base number at 46 when he only has 45. They have a lot of mistakes on their site, it’s not a site I’d swear by.
He'll add power
F-mart added Power too, but the power doesn’t matter if his plate discipline doesn’t improve. Hence why F-marts power surge has completely disappeared since hitters realized he’ll swing at anything.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
Eff! isn't having quite the year with the bat
as a 21 year old as he did as a 19 year old.
Prospects who succeed generally take their games with them from level to level, and often substantially improve at least one aspects of their games. Eff isn’t doing that, at least not with the key stats of OBP and k/bb ratios.
He’s got a .268/.325/.490/.815 ine in 477 PAs in AAA, and has literally never controlled the strike zone at any level (well, maybe the Sally).
He’ll struggle to keep his OBP above .300 in the majors.
Add to that that TZ has him a gruesome -18 in 253 games in the OF, and I have no idea why he’d be a top 100 prospect for 2011.
In his favor he IS a better hitter in the ML than is Ruben Tejada…
He's a 19 year old in A ball with a 6.8% BB%
He’s improved his BB% every year he’s played baseball and has lowered his K% from last season. I could understand if he was in AA and not showed improvement, but right now he has a decent walk rate and has improved upon it each season in pro ball. Give the kid a break.
His BB% is because of the HBP
take those out and look at what his BB numbers become. He has a sub sub .3 bb/k despite having 22 HBP.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
nevermind my bad I apparently can't do math
the HBP aren’t included in the BB%.
Also I still maintain that saying he’s 19 in A ball is disingenuous, IFA players come into professional baseball two years earlier than their american counterparts. I imagine if you separate the averages by IFA and american the average age would be lower for IFA’s. Being a 19 year old with two years of professional baseball behind you, and probably more when you consider the years they spend at the academies, really isn’t the same as being a 19 year old out of high school producing in A ball.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
And I don't understand the give the kid a break logic
I’m not saying he sucks I’m saying at this point their are better prospects. I just don’t see what about him at this point makes him better than Lutz or Ratliff. I’m not going to give him bonus points just because he’s 19 when his production hasn’t really shown much.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
Carlos Lee stole bases and was big
So did Ken Griffey Jr.
So does Werth.
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I'm not sure I'd consider Werth big
he’s lanky, not big as in thick, from most reports they expect Puello to get thick thick especially in his lower half, which is why they’re not even trying him out in cf at this point. I have no idea what Lee and Ken Griffey jr looked looked like when they were younger so that might be better comparisons, though the fact Griffey Jr played cf I’d assume he wasn’t that large.
I mean if you’ve ever looked like at pictures of Puello he looks a lot like Flores/young Cabrera, he’s not huge now but he’s round and looks like someone who’s going to get massive.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
Griffey was pretty skinny when he started in Seattle...
I found a few photos from the early 90s when he made Beltran look thick.
by MookieTheCat on Aug 28, 2010 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Griffey only got big once he went to Cinncy so you're right about that.
but they leave Flores at SS even though it’s obvious he won’t stay there, why not put Puello in CF?
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yeah I have no idea why they wouldn't put Puello at SS
considering Flores at SS, and Havens at SS and Captain Kirk and F-mart at CF for so long. I’d chalk it up to the mess.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
here's some pictures of Puello now for anyone
who hasn’t seen him.
This is him now at 19(he makes Flores look anorexic)…and the organization apparently thinks he has a lot of room to grow and is only going to get bigger. I just don’t think it’s all that likely he’s going to keep up the base stealing, though considering how large he already is who knows he might end up being one of those high percentage low totals guys at the upper levels which would be good.
Now if his plate patience, or contact skills improve then yeah we’ll see a power surge once he fills out and moves up but it’s not really something you can just assume will come with size. With Flores, who I think someone brought up early in comparison, his strike zone control is pretty advanced considering the level he was at and age (a .68 bb/k at the same age and level as Puello now I believe without 10000 HBP’s) and his contact rates are pretty much awesome, Puello doesn’t really have that going for him at this point to just automatically project future power.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
Toby Hyde has said that Puello "puts on a show in BP"
His power just hasn’t translated to games yet. He has a good eye, according to Newman he handles breaking pitches well for someone his age, and is a plus runner with a strong arm, hard not to like the guy.
Puello
Puello had 3Ks in the Gnats loss last night. He’s young, fast and hopefully will harness all these tools into a Angel Pagan type of OF.
Billy Chapel: "I can always tell when I'm in New York."
by LoveofTheGame on Sep 11, 2010 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I think we have our winner...
For the unintentionally sexual post of the day.
by MookieTheCat on Aug 28, 2010 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions
This was in response to squid92's post WAY above that went...
He’s 19 and in Savannah, that’s still pretty impressive.
by MookieTheCat on Aug 28, 2010 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions
This is when it gets hard to decide
I voted Puello. Next I think you should add Jefry Marte or Steven Matz (or both, I don’t see why you can’t just add everyone)
Gas prices today are a lot like a pitcher's ERA. Anything under 3 is amazing, under 4 is pretty good and anything 5 and up is something you want to avoid.
by Bobby Baseball on Aug 28, 2010 10:30 AM EDT reply actions
Can't add everyone
because guys are already winning by plurality with about 25-30% of votes. If you were to add 5 more guys the voting percentages would drop and you’d have the winner only receiving around 10-15% of the votes (which isn’t preferable).
Personally, I’d like to see Steven Matz or Armando Rodriguez added next.
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How would everyones opinion change if the Mets were playing him in center
as opposed to a corner spot? Seems he has the speed and arm to be an above average center fielder. Not sure if the Mets are going to adopt a center fielders playing right field philosophy due to the expansive right field at Citi. Think that might help us defensively in the majors, but hurt a prospect such as Puello’s stock around the sport a bit. Also, not sure if the trade off of defense over offense in right would help the team either.
I think theres a lot of people wondering why Puello hasn't played CF.
Even if he doesn’t project to be a MLB CF, it can’t hurt to have him play there in A-ball. The only thing I can think of is they like the guy who is currently in CF with Savanna even more (at least defensively) and don’t want to move whoever that is off of CF.
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Also as far as Puello not playing CF
apparently Pedro Zapata and RJ Harris apparently played most of the games there until Den Dekker was called up. I don’t know anything about either of the former in terms of prospects though.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
what;s really depressing
is the shortage of pitching prospects I would replace holt with stinson on your ballot
Can we all stop with the one person did this stuff.
One person, such as Hanley, doing something doesn’t mean much.
My opinion on Puello is that I like his onbase skills, especially if he can sustain the HBPs, and his power potential. But, he is a corner outfielder and the power potential is just that, potential. I can’t take his potential and youth over a guy like Lutz who is hitting the way he is at 3B.
I just don't see how you can knock Puello for not yet having power, only power potential
but not knock Lutz for his injuries.
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who's not knocking him for his injuries?
also probably the same way people voted havens 2nd
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
O/T
This has been up for over 2 days, and I’ve checked this thread several times, yet I just now noticed the typo in the title.
May you be locked in a battle of wits against Jerry Manuel.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Aug 30, 2010 1:18 AM EDT reply actions
Apropos, no?
Considering the state of the Mets system.
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Hey, I didn't demand you fix it.
I just thought it was funny that it took thousands of pageviews before anyone caught it. You’re doing great work with the series.
May you be locked in a battle of wits against Jerry Manuel.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Aug 30, 2010 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions
oh yeah, no worries
i’ve just begun my senior year application push, so i’m a little frazzled
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
Me neither...
And I used to get paid to spot typos for a living. Oh well.
by MookieTheCat on Aug 30, 2010 2:28 AM EDT up reply actions
i feel like the triple slash line doesn't do justice for this type of voting
take ratliff for example, he has 35 doubles, 21 HRs and 10 SBs this year and has been a lot better power-wise in AA while keeping basically the same discipline – 7.8 BB% and a too high 27.8 K%. just saying, mostly because Ratliff’s power really impressed me
I like Ike, I hate Jerry
No love for Gee?
Gee, I guess he is an average finesse pitcher, but he can pitch. As far as Puello, meh, he might be another Carlos Gomez/Endy Chavez type?
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
scroll up to see the pictures of him
Gomez and Endy combined weren’t that large.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
More on Puello
with all of the Puello talk in this thread I thought I’d link to a Prospect Spotlight I wrote on him at the beginning of August for anybody that hadn’t seen it. It includes some video, some interesting spray charts and my feelings about him. Scroll down to the bottom of the Aug 7th Farm System Report here to find it.
by Rob Castellano on Aug 30, 2010 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions
That video also gives a nice look at his running style.
Even going jut around 75% to 1B he looks fast and powerful. Once again, great work by the way, Rob.
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it also just re-raises the question asked many times
why is he in RF?
I like Ike, I hate Jerry
Looks like another run-off in the works.
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It would appear that way, yes.
I’ll give it until sometime tomorrow to see if it works itself out.
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
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