almost 2 years ago
TheKid08
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Well what you see this remanding 2 months is what your gonna get in 2011
Say bye bye to Lee or a real #2 starter.
Even if we had a normal payroll situation, we wouldn't be adding Lee
I doubt the Mets want to pay 2 starters $20 million, and given that Lee is 32 years old and will want at least 5 years, it would be very, very dumb to sign him.
There is no hope.... there is no future....there is only GRISSIONZ
The 2010 Mets- Hey, we may suck, but what did you expect?
eh not really given the situation
since he might actually put us into contention, rather than spending like 20 million less to do nothing every year. They’d probably make up the money in revenue if we were playing meaingful games in October.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
If you sign Lee, you leave yourself absolutely no room for anything else
No 2B, no bullpen help, no bench help.
It’s a moot point since the Yankees figure to grossly outbid everyone for him.
There is no hope.... there is no future....there is only GRISSIONZ
The 2010 Mets- Hey, we may suck, but what did you expect?
not really
signing Lee would bring them only up to 150 million, which should give them 10-20 million under the tax.
the problem is the Wilpons don’t seem to get the idea of spending money to make money.
Plus what bench help do we need that can’t come from the farm? We’ve got most positions covered and I can’t think of any second basemen who’ll be available in FA anyway. And in last years market you could have built a whole team on 20 million, given that the economy is going back into the shitter it will likely be the same this year.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
only 150 million?
what gives you the idea the mets would go anywhere close to that? besides, i’d rather the mets didn’t give out any additional contracts and just let some of the bad ones die off next year.
"I only wanted a few things out of life -- a wife, children, to play baseball and to hunt deer." - Turk Wendell
thats kind of my point we know they won't spend to make money
and the problem is as soon as Perez expires, K-rod vests, and Bay and Santana’s turn into albatrosses as they decline and their contracts escalate. It will be like 3-4 years before we’re truly free of the bad contracts.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
We all know the payroll won't be that high
I’m acting under the premise that payroll either stays the same or goes down
Also, Orlando Hudson will be a FA again, and given his injury history, he’ll likely have to settle for a one year deal again.
Plus….we’ve already seen the risks of a long term deal for a pitcher. Something tells me Lee won’t keep this up in his age 35 season.
A Hiroki Kuroda/Orlando Hudson duo would not only cost less than Lee, but there would much less long term risk, and you’re aren’t far off in adding wins.
There is no hope.... there is no future....there is only GRISSIONZ
The 2010 Mets- Hey, we may suck, but what did you expect?
I think there's a better chance of the payroll getting to 150 million
than them signing Kuroda and Hudson.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
why wouldn't Lee?
I’m just asking, but I mean Halladay is still going strong as a 33 year old, and he has significantly more innings on his arm. Lee has not only shown no signs of decline, he’s actually gotten better each of the past three seasons. Lee isn’t Santana, someone who was already declining but we’re betting that his decline won’t be precipitous – Lee hasn’t even begun his decline yet. Sure, it’s possibly he could fall off a cliff next season or the year after, but I don’t think it’s very likely – he’s the best pitcher in baseball right now, and his control is off-the charts great. A lefty like that can survive even after he’s lost some velocity (see: Glavine, Tom).
2009 Did Not Happen
Lee also has way fewer innings on his arm
and isn’t a fastball change up guy like Santana was, so a decline in velocity in his fastball probably wouldn’t hurt as much. Plus he’s not much of major velocity guy to begin with.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
Wait if you spend more money and invest in your team which then
puts a better product on the field that fans will pay to see. You get back your returns plus more? That’s crazy talk. Seriously thou I think the Wilpons are skeptical on spending more money because Omar has done a shit job spending it. So they are releuctant to throw more money at Omar which in return Omar throws out the window. Further causing the domino effect of this team stuck with shit contracts and dead weight for yrs to come handcuffing them at FA’s they should be all over. Its really a vicious cycle.
Excellent point.
Payroll last year was $140m and the Mets won 70 games. I’m sure that puzzled the Wilpons and made them skeptical.
Seriously, how do they convince themselves Minaya is a pretty good GM? There’s simply no evidence for it. The Wilpons have to be aware—I’d think, anyway—that NY is the best sports market in the country, if not the world. And yet the Mets haven’t made the playoffs for four years in a row, and this year the team had fairly good health.
What do they say to themselves?
What about talent?
If we’re not adding payroll, could we at least add some wins?
Fuck you talking about???
The only way to find wins on the open market is to overpay for them
There is no hope.... there is no future....there is only GRISSIONZ
The 2010 Mets- Hey, we may suck, but what did you expect?
gray monospace is starting to seem less like "the sarcasm font"
and more like “the Omar font” around here. Not that it’s easy to tell the difference sometimes.
Can we figure out a way to do bold italics?
Consequences will never be the same.
by NetsMets4Life on Aug 9, 2010 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Windings...
That makes about as much sense as they do. I find it cathartic to visualize toasters flying out of their mouths when they speak.
by MookieTheCat on Aug 9, 2010 10:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Doing a quick math, it's about $ 135m including arbitration raises.
We would still need a SP, C, 2B, bench and relievers.
In lobby campaign for Chris Carter.
So....we have essentially no payroll flexibility, and Omar is going to be our GM??
Wake me up when it’s 2012
There is no hope.... there is no future....there is only GRISSIONZ
The 2010 Mets- Hey, we may suck, but what did you expect?
Alternatively, they can (and will) do the same thing they did in the trade deadline.
So, we’ll see Tak2 still in the rotation, Ollie in the pen, Castillo 2B batting #2.
Hey, we might even see Elmer Fudd back in the 2011 pen again or Omir Santos as the backup starter C.
In lobby campaign for Chris Carter.
I really hope this isn't what it will come to
I have to assume we will see changes…the attendance is already dropping like a rock. I just don’t see how they can sell Minaya and Manuel to the fanbase after this season. Our expectations were so low coming into this year and despite being around .500 now, this team has just been so disappointing. If the Wilpons are really going to stick with these clowns another year AND not bring payroll back up, Citi is going to be a ghost town. The talent on the way is nice, but aside from Mejia and Davis, there’s nobody really game changing on the way (Thole, Parnell, Tejada, even F-Mart are nice pieces but there are so many questions and limitations to each player).
The one and only mistermet on teh Interwebz!
by Steve Schreiber on Aug 9, 2010 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions
I should've said "potentially" nice pieces.
The one and only mistermet on teh Interwebz!
by Steve Schreiber on Aug 9, 2010 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I can't really understand the Wilpon's rationale if they bring Omar back
A rapidly declining attendance rate, a team that hasn’t made the playoffs in four years, and a GM who has proven to be incompetent.
There is absolutely no reason attendance and revenue will do anything but go down if they keep Omar. People simply aren’t interested in this team anymore.
There is no hope.... there is no future....there is only GRISSIONZ
The 2010 Mets- Hey, we may suck, but what did you expect?
Maybe it's just like Ollie
and they’re afraid that Omar will go somewhere else and become a good GM…
by dontstopbelieving on Aug 9, 2010 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions
my guess would be their still turning enough of a profit
and their focused on other things?
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
cause them being this stupid
is just hard to believe. I mean it’s one thing to not understand stats/war/etc or not care, but a I know 7 year olds who could run a business with more intelligence than this.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
Also, Omar's contract is until 2012, with 2013-14 club options. Should we wake you up in 2015?
In lobby campaign for Chris Carter.
You'll probably want to schedule the wake up call for 2013, since
if Roddy’s option vests that’ll be around $70m (not counting deferred money) for Santana, Wright, Bay, and Rodriguez. Pagan will be getting market value as a fourth year arb player, and iirc correctly Pelfrey and Niese will both be getting 60% of market as 2nd year arb guys.
Oh—and Omar will still be under contract for the 2011-2012 offseason. Go Red Sox!
I will be shocked if the Mets sign any [Type A] Free Agents (during Winter Meeting & before Spring Training)
I see no big FA’s player(s) wants to be with the Mets. Even if the MSM reports that FA wants to be with Mets, it’s all cloaks & daggers and fishing bait…
This is rank speculation on behalf of Rubin.
First off, the Mets total Opening Day salary in 2010 was about $140m, not $120m, as the latter figure does not include signing bonuses (to, e.g., Bay) and other stuff.
The Mets are probably committed to $120m in 2011, excluding arbitration/0-3 raises. You can see that all here: http://bit.ly/cIUGFq They’ve already locked up six players with that money (excluding Perez, Castillo, and Igarashi): Johan, Beltran, K-Rod, Wright, Reyes, and Bay.
But that includes over $10m in deferred payments due to Santana and Beltran. Rubin intentionally omits that fact, telling me via a Twitter dm that “it means they won’t spent that money in 2013, 2014, etc.” (his words) and by noting that “[t]hey’re paying Bonilla now.” Of course, they’re paying Bonilla about 10% of that uncounted $10m. Silly point.
So the Mets, assuming they’re willing to go to $140m, have probably about $30m to spend. This assumes they eat 100% of Ollie’s and Castillo’s contract.
They’ll spend roughly $500k each on the following 0-3 guys: Niese, Acosta, Parnell, Thole, Tejada/Turner. So, $2.5m, using Tejada/Turner as a utility infielder, I guess.
They also have a few arbitration eligible: Dickey, Pagan, and Pelfrey. I’d put them, total, at $7.5m, for ease of math.
That leaves $20m left over, with the following positions needed:
- One SP.
- A starting 2B.
- Five RPs. I don’t know Tak2’s contract status, so it could be easy to fill one there, for about $1-2m. I also think you’ll get at least one Dessens/Nieve type. I think you fill these spots for, total, $7m.
- A backup catcher. Re-upping Blanco for $1m seems doable, and certainly you can plug in someone else. Budget: $1m
- Two more OFs, as utility guys. Carter, F!, Jesus Feliciano, Lucas Duda — pick two, at $500k each. Total: $1m
- A backup corner IF. Daniel Murphy, redux? $1m.
So, $10m to fill our bench/bullpen. Another $10m to get a starting pitcher and 2B. (And again, this assumes we get absolutely no salary relief for Castillo/Perez.) Not easy, but certainly doable.
by Dan Lewis on Aug 9, 2010 5:45 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I'll write more later tonight, but unfortunately, no, it's not doable. Not by Minaya.
The Mets had almost $40m to spend this past offseason. They were flatly incapable of picking up what the team needed. (Hell, they didn’t even know what the team needed—Bengie Molina? No starter or 2bman?) The same clowns (Minaya, Wilpons) are again going to be in charge of player acquisitions this offseason so, no. No offense to you and your thoughtful post, but there’s certainly nothing doable for the money available to this front office. Nothing whatsoever. It will be the same team as this year, so unless we get very, very lucky with rookies, near rookies, and minor leaguers, the team will be no more competitive next year than it was this year.
Short term prospects I agree, its bad news for 2011
But I think the good news is there’s enough of a lack of financial flexibility that:
A) It’ll be tough for them to really screw anything major up this offseason (i.e. another Castillo/Perez type contract)
B) When they don’t spend big, and have another mediocre season, it will be virtually impossible not to scapegoat someone. If the Wilpons somehow luck into timing things right, they might bring in a fresh front office crew to try and revamp the 2012 roster, when all of a sudden the organization will have a ludicrous amount of financial flexibility.
All I really want them to do this offseason is lock up Reyes and Pagan. That’s two guys whose stock has nowhere to go but up if they’re not locked up ASAP, and especially with Pagan, he could reach a threshold where he could leverage quite a bit more than he’ll probably be worth if he has another year like 2010. If they offer him four years now, it’d probably be in the $30-40 mil range, covering his two remaining arb years plus two more and his age 29-33 seasons. That’d be a solid deal.
Other than that, maybe they can move K-Rod before that option starts looming. Otherwise I’d mostly stand pat and work towards throwing some serious financial weight around in 2012, when $36 million for Beltran, Castillo, and Ollie alone comes off the annual books.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 9, 2010 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Mark, if that's what you consider good news,
I’d really hate to know what you think constitutes bad news :).
Hah, touche
But even if they had a lot of money to spend, what could they really do? That’s only half the problem. The other half is having too much invested in players who don’t have a shot to bring that much win value back. They still have some good building blocks, but they need to clean out the dregs and build some sustainability before they’ll really compete anyway.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 9, 2010 8:44 PM EDT up reply actions
they could spend a bunch more on players not likely to bring the full value back
until they got a team good enough to win in the play-offs for at least 1 year.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
We'll agree to disagree, then.
If this is a true talent 83 win team, adding a good starter, a good reliever, a good 2bman, and a solid bench surely kicks them up around 90 wins, without spending as much as $20m.
I just have to think the Wilpons are crazy not to figure out to do this. $20m is in the neighborhood of, what—200,000 to 400,000 more tickets sold? Surely with the pr problems the club now has, by making a real commitment in the offseason to fill holes and contending throughout the year they’ll sell that many more tickets than to their current, disgusted fanbase.
I think Tak2 can be renewed as long as he's kept on the 40-man roster
But his leverage is going to be retirement. MLB was supposed to be his last foray. Its just speculation, but if he isn’t told he’ll be used as a starter he might just retire. He might retire anyway.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Aug 9, 2010 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Last month I FanPost'ed "The Mets in 2011",
at http://www.amazinavenue.com/2010/7/2/1550432/the-mets-in-2011
just so you know where I’m getting my numbers from.
DDL, it looked to me then and still seems correct now that the Mets are nominally on the hook for $121m in salary for ten players for 2011. Deduct $10.5m for Santana’s and Beltran’s deferred money, add back in $2m for Bonilla’s and sundry obligations, and we’re looking at $113.5 for ten players. It’s not clear to me how you’d demonstrate the claim that the Mets are spending closer to $140m than $120m this year, so for the moment I’m going to put the “no increase” ceiling for next year at $130m. I do think you’re dramatically off on the salary our arb eligible guys will get. Just Pagan, for example, in 2011 will be getting about 80% of a FAs salary for a FA with his numbers. He’s a full-time CFer with no weaknesses, who is above average for his position in every facet of the game. In my post I put the team’s significant arb numbers for 2011 at
Pagan $7m
Pelfrey $5m
Niese $2.5m
Add that to $113.5 and we’re already up to $128m for thirteen players. Even if you fill every other roster spot with guys making the minimum, you’re up to $132.2m for the 25-man roster. There’s simply no way the team will be adding even one significant free agent (though if you want to add one durable, thoroughly mediocre starter for the money if it would take to get the payroll from there to $140m, it won’t change the team’s fortunes), and given the above numbers, would have to be using Santos as Thole’s backup, Murphy or Evans or Hessman or Duda as Davis’s backup, Martinez in RF, Gee as the fifth starter, and so on. Takahashi and Dickey won’t be available for the minimum, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see them both go. In fact, don’t be surprised, if the Mets are to stay under $130m, to see Pagan traded for prospects.
The only silver cloud in all this is Francouer probably won’t be back.
I don't think Pelfrey is worth $5 million
Just heard that Garza or Sheilds will be shopped this offseason. I don’t know what it would take but I’d be all over Garza. But the mets probably don’t have anything of interest for the rays.
I imagine Garza will cost something huge.
he’s still under team control for 2 more years. I imagine you’re not giving him with giving up at least one major league piece.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
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