The Illogicality Of The Jeff Francoeur Trade
by Sam Page on Sep 1, 2010 1:51 AM EDT
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PrintDon't let the headline deceive you -- the Francoeur-to-Texas deal is an indisputably good move. The fact that the trade even occurred, however, makes no sense. If the Mets acknowledge, through their actions, that Jeff Francoeur is only worth token-AAA infielder, Joaquin Arias (or less, considering the cash going Texas' way), how can they possibly make him their starting rightfielder for nearly two years?! I'm being serious, not glib. Regardless of my generally low opinion of the Mets Front Office, I at least expect them to adhere to some basic tenets of human logic.
There's no possible explanation for this incongruence:
- They thought he was good -- Obviously the Mets, at one point, thought Jeff Francoeur would be a good rightfielder. This season, however, has been an abject disaster. And ever since Omar Minaya indicated at the July-31st trade deadline that Francoeur would be a waiver-trade candidate, the Mets seemed to have at least partially realized Frenchy's incompetence.
- They gave up a long time ago -- In this scenario, the Mets fell out of contention early and just dragged Francoeur around because it didn't matter either way. The Mets, however, were a close second-place to the Braves in the NL East as late as July 16th. They were 1.5 games out of the wild card. From May 1st to July 16th Francoeur had hit .270/.316/.372.
- Lack of better options -- This possibility assumes Francoeur creates any kind of standard against which to measure other players. Since his impressive April, Francoeur has a .605 OPS. Rey Ordonez had 3 seasons as a Met in which he hit better than that. Lucas Duda, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Chris Carter, Jason Pridie, Val Pascucci, and a few choice corpses were all viable replacements at any point this season. Francoeur even started over Pagan sometimes in July, the month he had a .393 OPS.
- Waiting for the big bounce back -- Given Francoeur's truly awful track record with Atlanta, waiting all season for Francoeur to replicate his incredible April would be stupid beyond forgiveness. It's also the most likely scenario here, coupled with the Mets inherent over-valuation of Francoeur.
I tried to write the timeline down on pen and paper, but it made no more sense (click to embiggen):
This trade only confirms the Mets transformation from bad front office to bad and totally inert front office. Ever since Jeff Wilpon muddled the Mets' organizational hierarchy a year ago, they have gone from heading straight down the tubes to heading nowhere, which may actually be worse.
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May I be the first to say : WHO GIVES A RAT'S BEHIND ABOUT GONE-COEUR?
He’s finally outta here….
There’s no need for explanations, examinations, or Omar Minaya “Investigations”…
Mr. Smiley-Face is taking his sub-replacement level act to a playoff team who will find out all too soon that he will slowly but surely suck the life right out of the team with his grisson…
Sam, you're overthinking this
Look, we already knew that the Mets overvalued Francoeur by a lot, seeing him as a guy who could benefit from a change of scenery and become an above-average RF at first, then drinking some more Kool-Aid, until finally realizing that they were wrong. And then they decided to hold him and platoon him (until Bay went down, then it was start him again) in hopes they could get something for him, which they amazingly did.
Collectively, we take the Mets to task for not realizing what sunk cost is. We want the team to acknowledge:
1) They made a mistake
2) Someone on the roster is basically worthless
3) Dump him and move on.
That’s what they did with Francoeur. It’s totally logical. It doesn’t make the illogical months prior any more (or less) rational, of course, but the trade itself employs exactly the reasoning we wanted the Mets to employ all year.
So you're saying we should immediately cut Arias?
He’s going to be the new Suckcoeur, just cheaper so more likely to be kept for the next 4 years.
Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...
by Stephen Schmidt on Sep 1, 2010 7:32 AM EDT up reply actions
I predict Arias....
Will be our next Mike Piazza. You heard it here first. In other news, I’m investing my entire life savings on 9 on the roulette wheel.
I'ts the new j wilpon
penny pinching economic program, This leaves no doubt whose charting the course for this titanic
Don't kill me...
I am one who will kinda miss the lug. I agree that the guy had personality, more so than most on this Mets team, and easy to like. Unfortunately, he was a terrible hitter, frustrated the hell out of me with his inability to keep his bat on his shoulder, but had a decent arm from right field. [sniff, sniff] Go get’em in Texas, Frenchy.
On a positive note, may I be the first to say, welcome to the bigs “El DUDA-rino”! Cannot wait to see what he does vs. big league pitching.
At the height of our hatred
he hit that home run in Atlanta and the reaction in the dugout was insane. I didn’t know a man’s hair could take that much affectionate rubbing. That made me guess he’s ok.
Anyway,
/doesn’tmatter
by Pack Bringley on Sep 1, 2010 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions
What pissed me off was when he said back before Beltran came back
That none of them, meaning him, Bay and Pagan, were flat out sucking. At that point he had like a .695 OPS. If that’s not flat out sucking, what is?
yeah but does that really make him a douche?
or just uninformed?
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
Why can't he be both?...
Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Josh Byrnes/Chip Hale as Mets 2011 GM/Manager.
I was willing to give him the benefit of the doubt vis a vis clubhouse presence...
But when he started whining about the platoon and wanting to be traded, yeah, that kind of did it for the good soldier thing.
There's plenty of personality on this team
We don’t need a designated personality-er.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Josh Byrnes/Chip Hale as Mets 2011 GM/Manager.
I'm recing this
because of the awesome S on the bottom on the timeline!
If there's ever a riot at Citi Field and Oliver Perez was the starter, I started the riot.
I have to respectfully disagree
Frenchy’s trade “value” would never be high, regardless of how fans of his may view him. He’s a 5th outtfielder, and no better. Is he young and has some potential for growth? yeah, so did Pete Incavilia.
to get even a warm body for him was a stroke of…luck… Sure Arias isn’t great by any means, but at least Omar got SOMETHING. and yes, we all know how incompentent this front office is…
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
My guess is that
Omar literally has no power over Manuel, it’s kind of like the Barajas/GMjr etc mess. Omar may want F-mart or Carter (or Thole) to play but because of the complete lack of hierarchy he has no power to get Manuel to do this. So the only way to get the player he wants playing time is to take away Manuel’s toys.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
and it's also possible
he just over values a guy like Arias, since we seem to be the only team in the league who realizes the no hitting all glove (and Arias’s glove doesn’t even seem to be that much of a glove) 2nd basemen is a thing of the past.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
Arias has value
only if he’s seen as a body for the middle infield so that we don’t rush any more prospects like Tejada. We need someone to play 2B until we get a real solution.
Texas concluded
they’d be better off with Cora.
by Pack Bringley on Sep 1, 2010 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions
They also concluded that they'd be better off with Frenchy....
So what does that tell you?
That Nolan Ryan has a serious drinking problem.
by Putnan Prince on Sep 1, 2010 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe Nolan will
convert Frenchy into a pitcher?
What's the score, boys?
What did Bugs Bunny do?
What's with the Carrot League baseball today?
With that cannon of an arm,
It might just work (though I could anticipate many of those pitches going high and away…)
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Btw, was there an easier position to fill than 2b this past offseason?
Seriously, guys like Kelly Johnson have ONE off year and get DFA’ed.
This
It isn’t so confusing. Jerry almost certainly hates this deal; he may even hint at it to the media today. Omar > Jerry.
I’m not sure how things usually work, but it would seem standard that a GM doesn’t tell his manager whom to put in the lineup, no? I’m not sure that’s a hierarchy thing.
by Pack Bringley on Sep 1, 2010 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions
eh I imagine in most organizations
the gm finds a manager who shares similar mind-sets/goals and they follow a set plan together with the gm being the ultimate sayer. It seems like it makes more sense for an organization to follow one plan, or else you end up with messes like, well the mets.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
I'm with you up until the last point -- GM as "the ultimate sayer"
I could be wrong, but it seems unlikely that any GM would override a manger who thinks player X gives him a better chance, so uses player Y off the bench. I see the logic of the top-down approach, but I bet it’s a little more church-state than that. Again, I don’t actually know.
by Pack Bringley on Sep 1, 2010 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions
eh I disagree
just for example do you think if for some odd reason Francona had thought Coco Crisp was a better option than JD Drew Epstein wouldn’t have stepped in? I’m sure to some extent managers have control but I imagine for egregious things, like GMjr over Pagan, a smart gm would put a stop to that madness.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
Depends
on whether or not a meddling born-on-3rd-base-and-thinks-he-hit-a-triple owner’s son perhaps undercuts the GM’s authority vis-a-vis the manager.
I think this probably varies from GM to GM...
Some guys are known as hands-off with respect to day to day matters while others are more involved. I doubt any GM calls down to the dugout on a day to day basis about lineups and the like but it would not surprise me if a GM like Omar would make a call the next day to talk about proper utilization.
yeah I didn't mean they make the call to dtd
more than in most organizations if the gm sees an egregious mis use they have the power to step in. In ours Omar has to get rid of the player somehow.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
letsgo, where did you hear that?
I mean, it sounds right to me, given that Manuel pulled Duda out of his first ML game ever and put in his place the frigging utility infielder Minaya got in trade for Frenchy.
If that’s not hate, I don’t know what is.
sorry if I am unclear
but I was writing half asleep -heh-. I was disagreeing the premise that Francouer had any value period. and this sentence in particular: “The fact that the trade even occurred, however, makes no sense.”
of course it makes sense. you get rid of deadweight when you can. tis all.
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
I assume this is in response to me, above
I understand what you are saying, and you are right that you get rid of deadweight whenever possible. I just don’t think that that statement qualifies as disagreeing. the fact that the trade even occurred does make no sense, because the basic incongruence of the front office acknowledging that Frenchy was worth next to nothing with their previous (apparent) assessments doesn’t make any sense. You’re just saying that it makes sense for the Mets to get rid of him now because it always makes sense to get rid of him. Thats true too, of course.
This thread is taking on definite, metaphysical overtones:
What is the worth of something of no value?
Was A always true, and if not, is it correct to act as though it were?
If something has value, should I treat it otherwise, if only for declarative purposes (i.e. can it’s value as a component of communication be greater than it’s actual use-value)?
Only with the Mets.
by Jack Str on Sep 2, 2010 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
To take on a whole new tangent,
Something bad does have value… negative value, that is.
And yet, negative value is even less than no value.
What do you have when you have less than nothing? (I guess, a deficit or a debt)
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Metsblog heart = rec
I dont really want to hear about Frechy unless it has to do with MS Paintz at this point.
Consequences will never be the same.
Kinda agree, but also disagree
Agree that front office is inert, but don’t think the team’s retention of Frenchy really reflects the front office’s inertia. Rather, I think it was just a manifestation of the rose-colored glasses through which the front office always viewed Frenchy. Frenchy became pretty much useless in July, and it took the Mets about 2 months to figure that out, which sounds just about right given how they’ve also viewed him as a starter who needs to “turn a corner” or “get it going.” Also, it took them about 2 months after everyone else to figure out that Jacobs, GMJ, Cora, and Barajas were pretty useless, so this seems to be their MO.
It is. I also assume just about everyone here realizes that the Mets FO doesn't routinely look at stats
like OBP and SLG, and UZR, when evaluating players.
Fixed
Frenchy became pretty much useless inJuly2006, and it took the Mets about2 months5 years to figure that out,
by Evan_S on Sep 1, 2010 11:57 AM EDT reply actions 3 recs
The trade wasn't illogical
The trade highlights the illogic of having Francouer as your starting rightfielder, if you are trading him and cash for a utility infielder.
Through the end of June, Francouer was batting .265/.315/.415 (if my math is right). Bad for a starting rightfielder, but not the complete abyss into which he sank. He had hit well in April, had a bad May, and bounced back a little in June (although the walks were disappearing again).
Since he’d joined the Mets, through the end of June, Francouer’s line was .290/.327/.459. Not stellar for rf, not enough obp, but close to acceptable, and one might suspect held down somewhat by Citi.
I can imagine the Mets, heading into July this year, might have thought, Frenchy isn’t playing great, but since he joined us he has been ok. He’s 26, maybe he needed to get out of Atlanta (his hometown), and maybe he has improved a tad. This probably was ignoring too much the suckitude of 2008 and early 2009, and his barely acceptable performance before that accept for his first half season.
Two weeks into July, things were rapidly falling apart, but I can see where with rose-colored glasses might just say, ok, he’s in a big slump, we just have to hold out until Beltran comes back.
And Omar seemed to sense this at the time. Certainly by the July 31 deadline. I think you are correct, they inherently had overvalued Frenchy to begin with. Although he certainly isn’t completely non-useful as a platoon bat. It’s just that at this stage the Mets don’t need an expensive platoon bat with no upside.
However, I blame this somewhat on Jerry. i think he seemed the last to know that Francouer is useless.
Nice summary, and as I mention above the Mets FO doesn't really go by slash line stats,
so with Francouer’s HRs and RBIs up around the team lead through the first two months of the season, they though he was pretty good.
The problems with the FO can be summed up with one statement:
They interchange production with skill – this was most evident when the team signed a certain has-been for $3 dozen million, after posting a 3.56 ERA the previous year, and most importantly, a winning record.
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Yeah
and Sam tried to disabuse once of the notion he is useful as a platoon bat, didn’t take, and fangraph’s matt Classen finally convinced me. Well, maybe over a whole season it’d be worth a few runs. Not worth his salary. Give me Nick vns as the righty bench bat next year.
well...
if he sucks so bad, how come he’s third on our team in rbi production?
you guys wanna act like he’s disabled or something, but if he’s as bad as you say, and is still 3rd on the team in rbi- HOW BAD IS OUR FUCKING TEAM!!!!!!!?!?!??!?!?!
granted, francoeur is not beyond reproach, but waiting for his “upswing” was not utterly improbable if you look at his month to month split stats- he’s streaky.
also he once hit 29 hr, although probably on roids.
you answered your own question
he’s third on our team cause our team sucks. our team sucks because of too many crappy guys like frenchy.
the end.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
*4th in RBI
Yeah, I’m that guy.
by James Kannengieser on Sep 1, 2010 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
You were definitely worth that 1 WAR predicted for you in spring training.
What's the score, boys?
What did Bugs Bunny do?
What's with the Carrot League baseball today?
Bringing RBI's to AA
is like bringing a knife to a gun fight.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Josh Byrnes/Chip Hale as Mets 2011 GM/Manager.
He puts one of yours in the hospital
you put one of his in the morgue.
What About the Frenchy Batting Cleanup Thing?
You think maybe he lobbied for this over the course of the season, so with a trade in the works the team either (i) threw him a bone and let him go do it or (ii) said “you’re our new cleanup hitter” then traded him?
Either way seems like an interesting subtext to the whole thing.
I will simply respond thusly
Jerry Trolling
Ryan Miller was the true MVP.
I really hate Jerry.
by Jsz on Sep 1, 2010 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Jerry probably wanted to keep him
so I wouldn’t doubt if he approached it with a “hey, why not”" attitude.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Josh Byrnes/Chip Hale as Mets 2011 GM/Manager.
Bay, Pagan, Beltran
If that’s the outfield next year (from left to right it is hoped), would someone like Fukudome, if you could get the Cubs to eat a lot of his contract (IIRC he has another year left), make sense as a fourth OF? I’d go with Duda, but you probably need one other veteran guy. He seems like the kind of guy who people no longer think of as starter material, but he takes a walk and hasn’t actually been awful, even if most of his production seemingly gets crammed into April. He’s had a decent year in a platoon role.
Here's the thing with that outfield
There’s maybe a 5% or 10% chance that that’s the most awesome outfield ever. I’m expecting Bay to bounce back from this season to have a good year in 2011. I’m also expecting Pagan to remain awesome. And I hoping that Beltran, like Reyes did after his bad stretch to begin the season, turns back into Voltron and goes all giant assembled metal robot on the NL in his contract year.
It could indeed
although most awesome ever, you’d have a hard time topping Meusel, Ruth and Coombs in 1927, Matle, Maris and a petrified starfish in leftin 1961, etc., Cobb Heillman and I forget the other guy…
But yeah, i agree, it could be pretty damn good. I think Bay will bounce back and if Beltran is healthy, hey, it’s a contract year. Hope some more time healing up off season and he’ll be good to go. Just was wondering about Fuku in case either needs to be spelled a bit.
Cobb and Heilmann played with this guy:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/veachbo01.shtml
No one remembers him but he had over 2,000 hits during a fine career. One of those guys who struck out 22 times in 670 plate appearances one season, and led the league in this and that a few times.
Cobb also played with at least two other HOFers in the Detroit OF (that was one hell of an OF for more than a decade). Anyone know who they were?
Wahoo Sam Crawford should be one
Drawing a blank on the other.
What's the score, boys?
What did Bugs Bunny do?
What's with the Carrot League baseball today?
Sam Thompson
He also played with Hugh Jennings, but he was an infielder.
Yogi Berra was a petrified starfish?
What's the score, boys?
What did Bugs Bunny do?
What's with the Carrot League baseball today?
Fukudome is one of the players I hope they target
probably an above average 4th outfielder
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
And also, so we can crack jokes about Fuk u do me
So even if the trade didn’t work out, at least there’d be comic relief, on the account that he sucked. It’s fail-safe.
(Your ad here)
Fuku makes sense
If the Cubs eat around 10m of the 13.5m he’s owed for 2011. He’s having his best year this year, he’s got the juicy OBP, and he’s probably avg in the corners, but around -5 in CF.
You’d need to plan on him getting 400+ PAs, though, almost entirely against RHP. He has to be the worst guy you’d pick up for the role, too, given Bay and Beltan’s health, and that Pagan is not iron man.
I know he can't hit lefties
but what the hell, I’ll just regress to league average platoon splits and voila. :)
I think Chicago definitely has to eat a good chunk of his salary. He just seems like the type that wouldn’t start over those 3 if healthy, but would be acceptable if one went down. You’re right, of course, he hasn’t hit lefties well and wouldn’t be optimal in centerfield, although serviceable I guess. If Angel and Beltran both go down we’re screwed anyway.
i like how this got linked at metsblog
probably solely based on the heart with an arrow through it that i can only imagine is actually a blow at metsblog
I like Ike, I hate Jerry
Frenchy Trade
Mets still won on this trade. At least while Jeff was here. Church, I liked him alot, but after the concussion, and taking note of the trade a year later, Mets win. Now, and I haven’t read all the comments so maybe the fire is gone, but the whole ‘change of scenery’ theory came into play!!!?
Nes
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