Mets Community Prospect List 2010: #12
Welcome to the 2nd Annual Amazin' Avenue Mets Community Prospect List. Every poll will include eight candidates for the next spot on the list, as well as a separate group of testers. Testers will be rotated into polls with each new installation, replacing each poll's winner and any name that's not getting votes. After a few rounds, if a candidate on the ballot receives a decidedly low vote total , they'll be replaced on the ballot by a tester. But for the first couple polls, I won't remove candidates with these low totals.
After the poll, Dillon Gee is the choice for the #11 prospect in the Mets' system with 43% of the votes. Replacing him in the poll is Mark Cohoon. Brad Holt has been removed from the ballot (for now), only receiving one vote in the last round and never receiving more than 3 votes at any one time. Replacing him in the poll is Kyle Allen. Scott Moviel has been added to the testers. To recap:
- Wilmer Flores
- Kirk Nieuwenhuis
- Reese Havens
- Matt Harvey
- Jeurys Familia
- Lucas Duda
- Darrell Ceciliani
- Aderlin Rodriguez
- Cesar Puello
- Zach Lutz
- Dillon Gee
- ???
The contenders:
Juan Urbina (17) R (G) SP 48.1 IP, 5.03 ERA, 54 H, 14 BB, 38 K, 5 HR
Sean Ratliff (23) AA OF .317/.371/.562, 311 PAs (242 at A+)
Cory Vaughn (21) A- OF .307/.396/.557, 313 PAs
Jefry Marte (19) A 3B .264/.333/.401, 366 PAs
Steven Matz (19) SP N/A
Robert Carson (21) SP A+ 86.1 IP, 4.17 ERA, 98 H, 33 BB, 69 K, 5 HR (48.2 IP in AA where he was pretty bad- 8.32 ERA)
Mark Cohoon (22) SP AA 71.0 IP, 4.18 ERA, 74 H, 15 BB, 56 K, 5 HR (90.1 IP in A with a 1.30 ERA)
Kyle Allen (20) SP A+ 101.1, 5.24 ERA, 106 H, 54 BB, 53 K, 6 HR
Testers: Eric Campbell, Zach Dotson, Josh Satin, Jordany Valdespin, Matt den Dekker, Wilfredo Tovar, Armando Rodriguez, Javier Rodriguez, Josh Stinson, Brad Holt, Scott Moviel, Eddie "Ruff Rider" Kunz
As always, voice opinions for the next ballot spot in the comments, and vote away!
This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions, reasoning skills, or attention to grammar and usage rules held by the editors of this site.
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Injuries and Comments
You’ve got Matz without ever throwing a pro pitch on the list with Tommy John’s.
Kyle Allen, who played the entire year with a cracked spine/vertebrae. I’m surprised he fell this low on the list. Reports were he was still touching 95 with a plus changeup, the Mets just kept running him out there until the velocity dropped to 90. Then, they sent Allen for tests, which according to sources dates back to April and possibly Spring Training with the injury. The stats reflect this and were the talk of the year between Sickels, Callis, etc. The answer seemed to be the injury.
Juan Urbina is very young. High Ceiling, lefty bringing it 90, but gives up too many HRs indicating he leaves the ball up. Still young and lots of development. I could careless if he gave up 2Bs or 3B, but the HRs indicate he’s got some learning to do. Maybe he’s tipping.
Carson is a future LOGGY. He gets shelled in AA because he works off one pitch.
Ratliff, came out of no where this year with his HRs in AA. His power was always there, but the K rate is still 30% or more. He won’t be able to handle a CF position in the Majors, he’s too slow. The power will be similar to Francoeur’s IMO.
Cory Vaughn has shown power in NYPL. Awesome. Let’s see how he does in SAL/FSL next year, when guys actually bring the ball 90+ with movement and secondary pitches vs the 87/88 MPH FBs he’s seeing in the NYPL.
I saw we throw Hamilton Bennett up here. LOL. When you think of Vaughn and Cecilliani’s numbers in the NYPL, remember 70% of what these guys saw this year in the NYPL was a Hamilton Bennett clone.
Billy Chapel: "I can always tell when I'm in New York."
Just to reiterate
This is a COMMUNITY prospect list. But
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
I follow ya Squidward
How do you do edits? I’m still confused about that. I’m a horrible speller. I have to look at it over and over to make sure I don’t put something like about Bennett…where I said SAW versus SAY.
Billy Chapel: "I can always tell when I'm in New York."
by LoveofTheGame on Sep 11, 2010 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
you cant edit a comment
Gas prices today are a lot like a pitcher's ERA. Anything under 3 is amazing, under 4 is pretty good and anything 5 and up is something you want to avoid.
by Bobby Baseball on Sep 11, 2010 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
We're at the point in the list when I think sure things are pretty hard to come by for most organizations.
Any franchise who has 12 safe bets to be regular major leaguers will be in real good shape going forward, espescially an organization who just had Thole, Davis, Tejada, Niese, and Mejia all lose prospect status this year and still has guys like Murph and Evans (if he exists) hanging around. I’d be really interested to see where the community slotted those guys in.
Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...
by Stephen Schmidt on Sep 11, 2010 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
i mean
matt harvey is at number 4 without ever throwing a pitch. why cant matz be on the list?
I like Ike, I hate Jerry
Harvey was a College Player at a Major D1 University
While I will reserve my comments about how I feel about Harvey @ 4 and Familia @ 5.
Matz however came from NYC and was headed to Coastal Carolina.
Pro ball brings a bit of a difference than NYC as far as talent goes. Like a WHOLE LOT of difference.
But as Squidward said, this is a community vote.
Billy Chapel: "I can always tell when I'm in New York."
by LoveofTheGame on Sep 11, 2010 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions
this
Harvey has 3 years of data from one of the tougher conferences in NCAA.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
As well as being a top 10 prospect in the draft as a prep arm, and still having tools which probably exceed his performance to date.
Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...
by Stephen Schmidt on Sep 11, 2010 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions
correction
Matz is from upstate NY, not NYC.
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
by feslenraster on Sep 12, 2010 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Ward Melville to be exact.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Josh Byrnes/Chip Hale as Mets 2011 GM/Manager.
At least he's not from Smithtown.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Sep 12, 2010 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Eh, they're all kinda sucky IMO
Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Josh Byrnes/Chip Hale as Mets 2011 GM/Manager.
testers -
yohan almonte, justin turner, akeel morris
Turner's off the rader, he's not really a traditional prospect at this point.
Almonte and Morris are both on the shortlist for tester status, though.
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
Wondering
why Allen gets so much love here. No control and no Ks? No thanks.
Very raw
Not much of a breaking pitch either. I liked Carson better. Allen does still have good upside, maybe #3 SP potential, he’s pretty inexperienced and was one of the youngest pitchers in that league.
No way I put him over Urbina, Ratliff or Vaughn.
by acerimusdux on Sep 12, 2010 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions
those are two more knocks against him
An injury at this point, for a guy with few innings under his belt as a SP, is hardly a positive. And his velocity is just OK. Rob Carson is only a year older, has better fastball velocity, better fastball command, and is a lefty. Also has a better breaking pitch.
well I mean people are giving him a mulligan on this year because of the injury
and it was non related to his arm so I’m not sure the innings total would really affect it one way or another.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
maybe
Honestly, it’s not that big a deal, I don’t have him much lower than this either. I have Ratliff, Vaughn, UIrbina, Allen, and Carson all as C+ guys, so not really that much space between them.
But while the injury wasn’t arm related, it might be related to throwing. And even giving him a mulligan, I don’t think last year’s version of Allen really would rank this high for me either. I know Sickels had him top 10, but I was more in agreement with BA, which had him at #14, or even Diamond-Futures, which had him at #17.
This
"we believe in comebacks"
"Play like a Jet"
by Jadden Hopkins on Sep 12, 2010 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
The sudden voting-love for Allen surprises me as well.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Josh Byrnes/Chip Hale as Mets 2011 GM/Manager.
That stil doesn't explain the sudden voting surge.
I mean, if people were complaining about the Aderlin Rodriguez vote, I’d expect them to be livid about this one, haha
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
This was nearly as bad
Aderlin was maybe even worse, in the way it occurred after the poll was pretty much over, after everyone had really already had a chance to vote and had made their choices, and with seemingly no support for him in the comments.
This one also did occur mostly overnight. But it’s still pretty early in the poll, and there were several people in the last vote requesting Allen be included on the poll, and some favorable comments about him from some pretty well respected members. So maybe some of those people voted for him, and maybe some people read those comments and were swayed by them. And 90 votes at this stage after a day and a half doesn’t really seem like an unexpected total either. It seems in line with the other polls.
It still is very weird to me to see 30 for Allen vs. zero for Carson, though. Those two are very close to me. Allen does have the better change up, but Carson has the better everything else. I actually think Carson is the better athlete with higher upside there. But he would probably have to learn a splitter or something to be really good.
Eh
the last poll went for a full two days and only got 90 votes. Altogether:
#1: 138 votes
#2: 91 votes
#3: 105 votes
#4: 85 votes
#5: 107 votes (let it go a bit longer to see if the candidates would distance themselves)
- Run-Off: 102 votes
- (revised after F! lost eligibility): 81 votes
#6: 87 votes
#7: 90 votes
#8: 125 votes (Aderlin)
#9: 113 votes
#10: 76 votes
#11: 90 votes
#12: 95 votes (as of the writing of this post, approx. one day after posting FanPost)
- (Aderlin) was the biggest non-#1 vote around, but I did leave it for an extra two days, if I remember correctly. In one day, this poll has already reached 95 votes. I agree #8 was a little weird, but this seems definitely weirder to me, considering the timing of when I posted each one and for how long.
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
a little weird formatting, but i think my point still stands
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
I was writing a lot about Allen in the last poll
But I still voted Urbina here. Not even really sure why, if I was in a different mood I could have just as easily voted Allen, Vaughn, or possibly Carson. Like you said above, we’re in C+ territory right now, so separating these guys is more about sparking discussion than actual discrete rankings that suggest one guy is significantly better than another. Ratliff’s the only popular guy here that I probably wouldn’t have voted for, but the more I think about it, he’s really in a similar category, C+ type prospect, perhaps a bit overvalued due to strong recent performance, but it was a strong performance nonetheless and deserves to get him a bit more than a C.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Sep 14, 2010 2:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Ratliff
The scouting on Ratliff was pretty strong before his recent performance. He was pretty well regarded heading into the draft, had led PAC-10 in HR, for a top school playing in a pitchers park. I was one of the skeptics to some degree, but I’m probably guilty of overemphasizing strikeout rates. Enough people had told me beforehand that he was one of the highest upside guys in the system, for me to think I probably got that wrong, and the breakout is real. There’s just enough power there, that the strikeouts don’t matter that much. And the walk rate at 7.2% is at least respectable. I’d like it higher, but if it were 10% he’d be a top 100 candidate at this point. The power probably gives him a higher ceiling than a guy like Michael Taylor, for instance.
by acerimusdux on Sep 14, 2010 10:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Ratliff's strikeout dropped slightly in AA
which is encouraging. He did really well at Binghamton, but finished in a slump. If he can project those AA numbers to AAA, I’ll feel a lot better about his prospects for the big leagues.
Yeah this is true, I was somewhat aware of this
I’m probably guilty of over-emphasizing early ARL performances with Ratliff. What he did last year just wasn’t impressive at all and he was much older than his league average. This year he’s more in line with his league average and he’s produced, so its still difficult to judge. I’ve always just assumed that as a guy who would never be an average center fielder, he would need to sustain performance like this year’s before he deserved to be on the radar, but I should have been considering the pre-draft hype a bit more, especially if I was going to emphasize last year’s performance so much. I still think there’s a lot that’s uncertain about him simply because he hasn’t been challenged to perform in an environment that he shouldn’t be performing in based on age and draft hype. But current performance level really counts for more than I’m making it seem like. I was reading through the comments in the more recent poll and there’s a part of me that even wants to agree with Rob that he may ultimately be what many of us hope Nieuwenhuis will be. His batted ball profile is much more consistent with what you expect from bat-based MLB outfielders, the two should provide interesting competition in Triple-A at some point next year.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Sep 16, 2010 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Allen/Carson/Familia
Acerimusdux is normally pretty knowledgeable about St Lucie guys. But, I’ll add/edit/comment as well.
I’ve seen each of these guys at least 5 times in the past year.
- Carson works off 1 pitch. He has a FB. He’s a 2007 draftee, who is NOT gifted athletically. Far from it. Actually his upside is LOGGY. He has a pitch he tries to spin which people refer to as a “slider”. Although it doesn’t break. His bonus is that he’s a lefty. But in AA, without a 2nd decent pitch, he ran the ERA up to double digits and was giving up a HR every 5ip. In High A, his ability to move his FB up,down, in and out was his key to success in his last 4 or 5 outings. It wasn’t because he developed a better pitch. A lefty with a velo that is 92 to 94 (which Carson has) is obviously a great thing, but it doesn’t get you through an order 3 times. He’ll find a job in the majors at some point. Last report on Carson was that he was gliding through a start of 3.1ip and got nailed by a ball on his shoulder of his pitching arm and was rolling around. Don’t know his status as we speak. Should be going to AFL soon, if he’s alright.
- Allen had a cracked spine all year according to reports. His velocity which I witness earlier in the season ran it up to 95, sitting 92-93. His change up is by far his best pitch. His slider absolutely was not a good pitch. At times he would hang it or would not be a swing and miss pitch. I attributed this to his inability to repeat his delivery due to the back issue and unable to land correctly. He’s by far the most superior athlete of any pitcher in the Mets system, bar none. I would rank him athletically in the Top 10 of all of the Mets minors. I’ve seen him take pitcher’s BP and he laces the ball with authority. Rick Ankiel with right arm as one put it. I can’t put a #3 or #5 starter on Allen yet, but I still think with the FB, Changeup and workable slider, injury free has the highest upside. Additionally, having had the back injury throughout the season, he still averaged over 5ip in each of his starts. The inability to miss bats isn’t alarming. His natural sink of his FB will get him deeper into games as guys will simply beat the ball into the ground early in the count as he realizes to get ahead of batters early on.
- Familia works off a live arm. His mechanics are a mess, with 74BB and 25WP, he has to harness where it goes, which he did well at the end of the season, by dropping his velocity and thus throwing more strikes He did so against weaker hitters at the end of the year vs the beginning of the year. But, one thing stood out during those outings, the third time through the order, these hitters realized it’s, FB or Slider. I’ll sit back and pick my pitch. Usually around the 5th or 6th inning, it wasn’t the lack of velocity, it was the lack of a 3rd pitch (change up). His velocity is superb 3rd behind Mejia’s and Parnell. But even watching Mejia in his last outing in the majors, his velocity has dropped as well as a starter. Familia is a future Major Leaguer IMO as a reliever.
Carson (hit his ceiling) this year
Allen (down year due to injury), next year will be the breakout year
Familia (has to figure out a 3rd pitch), otherwise it’s to the pen
Billy Chapel: "I can always tell when I'm in New York."
I agree with most of that
Maybe I’m valuing them a bit differently, but I really don’t disagree much on the details.
Allen, yeah he does at least still have the potential for 3 solid pitches, which makes him one of the few guys in the org. right now who could profile as a big league SP. But he just seems so far away from actually being that. I did see the good change early on, I saw him once later though where I was wondering where it went. Maybe this was after the back was bothering him, but he was pretty ugly at that point, mostly looked like he was just trying to throw as hard as he could. I got the impression he’d sit more comfortably around 90-92. And even with good velocity, he really wasn’t able to pitch inside effectively. He still has a lot of work to do as far as being able to command and locate the fastball. And yeah, the slider was disappointing. I thought I saw more potential there earlier as well, but maybe the weaker pitch was all he could throw strikes. Anyway, some potential yes, but I’m just not putting the odds that high right now.
Carson, I agree is most likely a pen arm. The “slider” had pretty much no drop to it, but some late lateral break which was somewhat effective, and with pretty good velocity. Too much break to call a cutter, so it’s a “slider”. I agree it’s not a big league weapon either at this point, but I do like guys who can throw hard with fastball command, and on that point Carson was ahead of both Allen and Famillia. I still think he could be more than a Loogy, maybe a lefthanded Parnell. But yeah, he’ll need to improve the breaking pitch or find a better secondary offering.
I’ll add, I didn’t see as many games this year, only saw each guy 2-3 times. The thing here is, though I thought I saw more potential for Allen early on, I’d say it was probably still less potential than I thought I saw last year for Holt. And Allen last year, even when he was healthy, was really only OK in the SAL, with the 49th best strikeout rate and the 40th best walk rate of SP in that league. Granted, if Allen bounces back next year and performs, he’ll still be a year younger than Holt was in 2009. But it seems like people are writing off Holt completely at this point and willing to give Allen a complete mulligan.
by acerimusdux on Sep 12, 2010 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Holt/Allen/Familia/Carson
I think that the offseason for Holt will do him wonders. He has a mean streak in him and ended Tony Sanchez season by drilling him right in the face with a FB.
The 5 WPs in the last outing were not a wonder. It was almost like he was saying, pull me please. I just want off this mound and get my head together for next year.
I won’t give up on Holt, I just think that the pen is calling his name. I think in 1 or 2 inning stints, his velo which is still at 94/95 and the Mets may be able to salvage a Supp rounder.
There’s an old saying: you pitch for your team, but in actuality you’re pitching for 29 other teams and want them to like you. I doubt Holt left a good impression in many scouts minds, but he still has a live arm and should he go to the pen, I believe he could be a possible piece somewhere.
When you get big bucks, people tend to hold a halo over your head. Similar to Harvey who we all expect to mow everyone down right away. Then when you struggle, they dump on you. I think with some positive reinforcement in the offseason and a Mets presence of actually caring (they do have a major investment in him), Holt should rebound in the pen.
Keeping the ball down with sink is not something you can teach, you can try, but it’s like Velocity, you either have it or you don’t. Certainly there are training techniques and changes in deliveries that increase velocity, how you hold a ball, arm slot etc, but in Holt’s case I don’t think it’s velocity, I think it’s that he leaves the ball up and thus he tries to over-compensate for that and gets wild, he has a poor arm slot.
As far as Allen, I don’t think Allen will be a Matt Moore with 200+ Ks in 135ip (Ray’s organization), rather I see a guy who will end up with 1 per inning as he develops and becomes healthy causing people to pound the ball into the ground. While we can say we diminish off the stats on Allen, I believe the learning curve of how to be a pitcher vs thrower in Allen’s case will determine his rise or fall as he was one of the youngest players in High A. Obviously the injury affected Allen, I’m still wondering how Familia was as wild as he was, I want to chalk it up to overthrowing to light up the gun. I would watch the catcher set up for an outside pitch and Familia would hit 97 on the gun and go inside. That velo got him into the Future’s game, but he was pounded because he didn’t throw anything but FBs and regardless of the velocity of 98, guys can turn on it.
Fastball command is so so important as you said. If you can cockshot a few early in the count and get them to drive the ball into the ground, you get to go deeper into games. It’s why every broadcaster says, getting ahead in the count. Flyballs into the outfield indicate you’re either leaving the ball up or that you’re facing the oddity of Vlad who can hit a pitch out of the park an inch off the ground.
Billy Chapel: "I can always tell when I'm in New York."
by LoveofTheGame on Sep 13, 2010 12:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Urbina
Urbina although 17 had 5HRs and 38K, in the GCL in 48.1ip and a 5 ERA. They hit .284 off him.
Allen at 18 had 1HR hit off him in the GCL in 34ip and an 2.12 ERA and 45Ks. They hit .194 off him.
If you compare this alone at nearly the same age, going through the same league, it’s an easy pick.
Urbina didn’t show enough in his opening stint for me to make a Top 15 list.
Billy Chapel: "I can always tell when I'm in New York."
by LoveofTheGame on Sep 13, 2010 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah I'm a supporter and I'm a bit flabbergasted at the number of votes he's gotten
Though I can’t really say there’s anyone I’d put over him at this point, more because I don’t know enough about most of the players left to make distinctions.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
It's not like I was being overwhelmed with requests to add him to the ballot, either.
I had, max, 3 or 4 people ask to put him on the ballot next.
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
I voted for Vaughn
mainly because I think he will be a solid major leaguer, maybe something to a lesser version of his dad.
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"

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