Mets Community Prospect List 2010: #12

You’ve got Matz without ever throwing a pro pitch on the list with Tommy John’s.

Kyle Allen, who played the entire year with a cracked spine/vertebrae. I’m surprised he fell this low on the list. Reports were he was still touching 95 with a plus changeup, the Mets just kept running him out there until the velocity dropped to 90. Then, they sent Allen for tests, which according to sources dates back to April and possibly Spring Training with the injury. The stats reflect this and were the talk of the year between Sickels, Callis, etc. The answer seemed to be the injury.

Juan Urbina is very young. High Ceiling, lefty bringing it 90, but gives up too many HRs indicating he leaves the ball up. Still young and lots of development. I could careless if he gave up 2Bs or 3B, but the HRs indicate he’s got some learning to do. Maybe he’s tipping.

Carson is a future LOGGY. He gets shelled in AA because he works off one pitch.

Ratliff, came out of no where this year with his HRs in AA. His power was always there, but the K rate is still 30% or more. He won’t be able to handle a CF position in the Majors, he’s too slow. The power will be similar to Francoeur’s IMO.

Cory Vaughn has shown power in NYPL. Awesome. Let’s see how he does in SAL/FSL next year, when guys actually bring the ball 90+ with movement and secondary pitches vs the 87/88 MPH FBs he’s seeing in the NYPL.

I saw we throw Hamilton Bennett up here. LOL. When you think of Vaughn and Cecilliani’s numbers in the NYPL, remember 70% of what these guys saw this year in the NYPL was a Hamilton Bennett clone.

Acerimusdux is normally pretty knowledgeable about St Lucie guys. But, I’ll add/edit/comment as well.

I’ve seen each of these guys at least 5 times in the past year.

1. Carson works off 1 pitch. He has a FB. He’s a 2007 draftee, who is NOT gifted athletically. Far from it. Actually his upside is LOGGY. He has a pitch he tries to spin which people refer to as a “slider”. Although it doesn’t break. His bonus is that he’s a lefty. But in AA, without a 2nd decent pitch, he ran the ERA up to double digits and was giving up a HR every 5ip. In High A, his ability to move his FB up,down, in and out was his key to success in his last 4 or 5 outings. It wasn’t because he developed a better pitch. A lefty with a velo that is 92 to 94 (which Carson has) is obviously a great thing, but it doesn’t get you through an order 3 times. He’ll find a job in the majors at some point. Last report on Carson was that he was gliding through a start of 3.1ip and got nailed by a ball on his shoulder of his pitching arm and was rolling around. Don’t know his status as we speak. Should be going to AFL soon, if he’s alright.

1. Allen had a cracked spine all year according to reports. His velocity which I witness earlier in the season ran it up to 95, sitting 92-93. His change up is by far his best pitch. His slider absolutely was not a good pitch. At times he would hang it or would not be a swing and miss pitch. I attributed this to his inability to repeat his delivery due to the back issue and unable to land correctly. He’s by far the most superior athlete of any pitcher in the Mets system, bar none. I would rank him athletically in the Top 10 of all of the Mets minors. I’ve seen him take pitcher’s BP and he laces the ball with authority. Rick Ankiel with right arm as one put it. I can’t put a #3 or #5 starter on Allen yet, but I still think with the FB, Changeup and workable slider, injury free has the highest upside. Additionally, having had the back injury throughout the season, he still averaged over 5ip in each of his starts. The inability to miss bats isn’t alarming. His natural sink of his FB will get him deeper into games as guys will simply beat the ball into the ground early in the count as he realizes to get ahead of batters early on.

1. Familia works off a live arm. His mechanics are a mess, with 74BB and 25WP, he has to harness where it goes, which he did well at the end of the season, by dropping his velocity and thus throwing more strikes He did so against weaker hitters at the end of the year vs the beginning of the year. But, one thing stood out during those outings, the third time through the order, these hitters realized it’s, FB or Slider. I’ll sit back and pick my pitch. Usually around the 5th or 6th inning, it wasn’t the lack of velocity, it was the lack of a 3rd pitch (change up). His velocity is superb 3rd behind Mejia’s and Parnell. But even watching Mejia in his last outing in the majors, his velocity has dropped as well as a starter. Familia is a future Major Leaguer IMO as a reliever.

Carson (hit his ceiling) this year
Allen (down year due to injury), next year will be the breakout year
Familia (has to figure out a 3rd pitch), otherwise it’s to the pen

I want to know how you could put him over Urbina?