As I understand it, the Mets have Feliciano ($2.9mil), Maine ($3.3mil), Escobar ($1.25mil), Takahashi ($1mil), Sean Green ($975K) and Tatis ($850K) as their expiring contracts of players they probably won't / can't get back. Could get Feliciano back, Takahashi too, though I don't want him as a starter. Further, Santana is set to make $1.5mil more in 2011 than in 2010, Wright +$4mil, Reyes' option is for $11mil, a $2mil raise, and Irigashi is set to make $500K more next year than this year. But the biggest is Bay, who made $6.5mil in 2010 but is slated for $16mil in 2011. Bay's raise may be muted somewhat as I'm not sure how the signing bonus ($8.5mil) gets allocated.
They also have Pelfrey, Pagan and Dickey eligible for arbitration and substantial raises (percentage-wise) from $500K, $1.45mil and $600K respectively. Pelfrey is a Boros client.
The big x-factor is K-Rod and whether they can release him from his contract, with its $17.5mil vesting option for 2012. Fortunately, if they are not able to release him legally, he'll need to finish 55 games next year for the option to vest automatically, meaning they'll only be on the hook for the $3.5mil buyout. (Any questions on whether Omar should come back?)
With K-Rod back and no salaries dumped (Ollie, Castillo), the Mets' payroll will be $7.225mil more in 2011 than in 2010, before Pagan / Dickey raises. Potentially could save a few bucks by replacing Reyes' option year with an extension - say 3 years, $27mil? My guess is that, even if they release K-Rod outright, they'll still only be about even - but most likely already have a higher payroll. And they'll have no closer.
So is it reasonable to think the Mets will have any money to spend this off-season? I think the off-season will be spent scouring the bargain basements for more RA Dickeys and seeing if they can get anyone to take Beltran, Ollie, Castillo or Bay (I think they should go there) off their hands.