How much money will the Mets have to spend this off-season?

Don’t mean to be depressing – but a dose of realism perhaps. In my mind, the Mets seem to have veered back into a “develop our own” bent. With Castillo ($6mil), Perez ($12mil), Beltran ($18.5mil), and possibly K-Rod ($11.5mil) all coming off the payroll, we should be able to re-sign Wright and Reyes, pay the kids that have earned a raise and still have money to fill in 1-2 spots where necessary. That, I believe, is how you build a championship team – develop your own, scour the scrap heap for the Dickeys and Pagans and add 1-2 free agent purchases. I don’t think there is any way Omar should be back as GM and I think the Mets should explore every possible avenue to dump K-Rod. I also think they should see if they can trade Bay for a starter like Lackey or Zito. Both those guys’ remaining contracts are very similar to Bay’s.

I think we can get 6 hr and 47 rbi from other sources for next year, but especially with Santana’s injury, we’ll need an arm.

For the OF, assuming Beltran is back and reasonably healthy, I’d go Pagan, Beltran and Endy Chavez from RF to LF. Chavez would hold the place warm for Fernando, Captain Kirk, Duda or whoever shows they can help.

Might have to give up a b-level prospect to encourage the Giants or Sox to trade their pitcher – though both teams have pitching and need hitting. Boston may believe Bay will revive in Fenway (I would). And with Beckett, Lackey, Buchholz, Dice-K, Wakefield and prospects Kelly, and Doubront, they may feel they have enough pitching. Lackey’s 3.0 WAR this year may disguise some poor peripheral numbers, but I’d be willing to be going to the NL and a pitcher’s park will help. In any case, he’s a lot better than Bay’s 1.3 WAR!

Zito is less desireable, a 2.2 WAR and it’s been 5 years since he was much better, but all the more reason the Giants may be OK with swapping him for offense. With Lincecum, Caine, Sanchez and Bumbgarner, they too may feel they have enough pitching. Zito has a full no-trade clause, so we may have to pick up his option to make it work.

about Francoeur and Cora’s $6.85mil combined. How quickly they fade from memory!

Green is arb eligible, but presumably the Mets have seen enough and won’t offer. I hope.

Honestly, with Santana now out for pretty much 2011, I think the Mets aren’t going to contend next year, and probably aren’t going to spend either. I think we are looking at exclusively low cost internal options, maybe a rotation of Pelfrey, Dickey, Niese, Gee, Mejia, and a lineup of guys like Reyes, Pagan, Wright, Davis, Bay, Beltran, Thole, Turner, with guys like Murphy, Martinez, Evans, Tejada, Duda on the bench and guys like Havens, Nieuwenhuis and Ratliff seeing significant time before season’s end.

Once we head into 2012, with Beltran, K-Rod, Castillo, and Perez off the books, I think there will be plenty of money to spend, and by then plenty of valuable trading chips as far as guys who have already proven something in MLB. And it might be clearer then which guys you really want to keep, which guys you might sell high on, and which spots can be most upgraded with one or two more established stars.

I also think, if you bring in someone from outside the organization to evaluate and change the way things are done here, they aren’t going to want to move too quickly making decisions about talent here with players they haven’t had a chance to get familiar with. Even a really good talent guy isn’t going to make the best decisions if he’s coming in from outside and tries to overhaul a roster in his first offseason.

So first overhaul the front office and coaching staff for 2011. And there will be bigger moves to make in 2012.

but seriously, this is going to be same crappy team for next year, maybe adding a Javy Vazquez or Yu Darvish…maybe. or a 3rd catcher in Brad Ausmus.

I wouldn’t be at all shocked if Omar and Moronuel are in place beginning 2011. after all, ninny owners need nincompoops under them so they can look less idiotic.