Mets Community Prospect List 2010: #15

I see pretty much all of these guys when they come through St. Lucie. So I’m at a disadvantage with Cohoon, seeing as he skipped the level. But for Cohoon I’ve been relying on reports from other people.

If Cohoon’s curve is as good as you say, then I’ve been underrating him.

I’m not sold though on 7 dominant starts at AA from Cohoon. To me it looks like he put together a string of 5 good starts in the end there, but prior to that, only had two good starts in the previous 8. On 7/28 he gave up 7 runs on 8 hits in 2.2 IP, and on 8/3 he gave up 4 runs on 7 hits in 5.7 IP, both of those with only 3 SO. So his good run starts on 8/10 and runs through 9/3. I’m reluctant to base too much on one run of 5 good starts in under a month.

As for Gee, he only made 4 starts in AA, but was equally as dominant as Cohoon in those 5. That was in 2008. And just last year, Eric Niesen was nearly as dominant over his last 5 starts in AA. It just doesn’t strike me as that unusual for a guy to look good in a small sample. The big difference for me with both of those guys was they both had a good enough fastball to pitch off. From what I’ve heard on Cohoon, I’m not sure he does. If Cohoon is already locating perfectly now, what is going to get better? It’s going to have to be the secondary pitches; they are going to need to be above average for that to work.

As far as Cohoon’s stuff, here’s what Mike Newman said in July:

Fastball: Featuring an 86-88 MPH fastball, topping out at 89, Cohoon can cut the pitch to either side of the plate. When at his best, he is able to use the pitches glove-side run and drop to give both right and left-handed hitters fits. It’s late action makes it difficult to barrel the ball and causes more than its share of ground balls and soft contact. Due to his ability to throw multiple breaking pitches for strikes, his velocity plays up at this level giving him an unfair advantage over younger, less seasoned wood-bat hitters.

On an isolated occasion, Cohoon struggled to locate his fastball to the point he dropped his velocity to 84-86 MPH just to throw strikes. A handful of 2-seam fastballs registered at 82 MPH which served as a strong reminder of just how little margin for error Cohoon has. In other leagues, he would have made an early exit.

Curveball: More of a slurve than true 12-6 offering, he was careful not to challenge hitters with the pitch, instead choosing to backdoor right-handed hitters and sweep it away from lefties. His least impressive pitch, it’s a fringe average to below offering at 70-74 MPH. Without enough bite to make batters swing-and-miss, it’s a pitch he may be forced to shelve has he climbs the ladder to focus on his fastball/changeup combination.

Changeup: With excellent arm action and the ability to spot on the outside corner to right-handed hitters seemingly at will, Cohoon’s changeup can be a weapon. At 81-83 MPH, he pulls down on the pitch which gives it excellent drop and fade away from righties. At present, he’s comfortable throwing it any count and has shown the ability to backdoor the change to lefties without risk of centering the plate.

And Toby Hyde also in July:

LHP Mark Cohoon

Why He Missed the Top 41: I just didn’t see enough pure stuff from Cohoon despite strong numbers in the New York
2010: In terms of results, the 22-year old Cohoon was the top pitcher in the SAL in the first half. He did it by throwing his mid-80s fastball, which he can cut a little or make run, his changeup and curveball to both sides of the plate. Cohoon worked his tail off, and put himself in shape mentally and physically to go deep into games. Scouts didn’t love the overall package, but noted that as a lefty with feel, he’d pitch in the upper minors, and give himself a chance. After Cohoon’s SAL All-Star game appearance, the Mets skipped Cohoon straight to AA, skipping St. Lucie. he’s struggled at the AA level mostly because when he’s been in the strike zone, he’s been hittable. His walk rate is up a little, but his strikeout rate is consistent with his SAL rate. His opponents’ batting average in AA is .313, in the SAL it was .313.
I Missed: Honestly, not much.
Top 41 This Winter: Back half, most likely, depending on second half results.

And finally, a poster I know on another board who has been following the Mets system and writing scouting reports for over a decade (I remember reading his reports on guys like Jae Seo, Pat Strange, and Ken Chenard) says:

M. Cohoon isn’t in my top 40….Cohoon has a below average/fringe average FB and no out pitch. You must always look at how will Cohoon get MLB hitters not minor league hitters. He has a hittable 85-87 mph 2-seamer that doesn’t have much sink and no out pitch.

I’d much prefer to rely on my own eyes, but this is the best I can do for Cohoon, and I really haven’t seen much to counter any of that, especially from anyone with much experience in evaluating minor leaguers. If you are seeing a good breaking ball, maybe that moves him up some for me, but still probably not top 20.

and let rob dibble pronounce his name —hah!

Allen was one of the youngest SP in that league and does have OK (#3-#4 SP) upside. But very raw, and the back injury ought to raise doubts as well. Still, his ceiling might be behind only Mejia, Harvey, Urbina, Familia, Carson, Matz, and Holt as far as pitching prospects in this system.