2011 Free Agency predictions
by METSMETSMETS on Sep 30, 2010 7:49 PM EDT
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Just a thread where you post ur FA predictions for this off-season.
Mine:
Jayson Werth - Yankees
Adrian Beltre - Red Sox (wouldn't rule out A's, Cardinals or Padres, though)
Derek Jeter - Yankees
Juan Uribe - Tigers
Jose Lopez - Cardinals
Felipe Lopez - White Sox
Hiroki Kuroda - Dodgers
Magglio Ordonez - Dodgers
John Buck - Dodgers
Hisanori Takahashi - Mets
Javier Vazquez - Mets
Chad Qualls - Mets
Rodrigo Lopez - Mets
Xavier Nady - Nationals
Coco Crisp - A's
Jake Westbrook - Cardinals
Aaron Harang - Dodgers
Ted Lilly - Braves
Eric Hinske - Braves
Adam LaRoche - White Sox
Vlad Guerrero - Orioles
Aramis Ramirez - Cubs
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Just a few
Lee: Texas
Dunn: Yankees
Werth: Seattle or San Francisco
Garland: San Diego
DeJesus: Rays
Ordonez: Nationals
Pena: Baltimore
Berkman: Houston
Harang: Kansas City
Lee: Nationals or Texas
Guerrer: Mets
Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Josh Byrnes/Chip Hale as Mets 2011 GM/Manager.
Mets
Yu Darvish
Orlando Hudson
Hisanori Takahashi
and that’s it.
If the Mets sign Javy Vazquez, Chad Qualls or Rodrigo Lopez, I might boycott the 2011 season.
Why'd you boycott
if they signed Qualls or Vasquez? They’ve both had subpar-awful seasons, but 2 guys with flyball tendencies pitching at Citi Field? I’d take the risk.
Is the sun going to come up tomorrow?
Maybe not Qualls
but definitely Javy. He’s way too old and he has been terrible this year to justify the money and the roster spot.
One a one year deal I'd actually like him
He’s likely to come for a lot less than what he’s making now ($11.5M.) and he’ll be moving to a very pitcher-friendly park in the NL where he’d be counted on to be a #5. If we can get him for 1 year for 5M. or even 7M. I’d be on board.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Josh Byrnes/Chip Hale as Mets 2011 GM/Manager.
Javy Vazquez is 34 and has a 4.91 xFIP
A pitcher friendly park won’t stop him from getting older. He has seen better days. June was his best month this year, and he posted an xFIP that worse with each passing month. He is in a negative trend. Not worth the major league minimum as that would eat up a roster spot.
He's definitely seen better days
but we’ll just have to agree to disagree that he wouldn’t be worth the MLB minimum as roster spot.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Josh Byrnes/Chip Hale as Mets 2011 GM/Manager.
With all the problems this teams going to have
we might as well throw as many things against the wall as possible, and Vazquez has been very valuable very recently. (and was pretty much in the worst situation possible in Yankee launching pad.)
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon (and Billy King-Paul G B)
Why not trade Wilmer Flores for a starting pitcher?
Flores just doesn’t have the speed to play OF in Citi Field, and 1B and 3B are filled. That will probably get us a better and younger pitcher than Vazquez.
How about this trade?
New York sends Wilmer Flores, Aderlin Rodriguez and Nick Evans to Seattle for Doug Fister and Nick Franklin.
Seattle gets two awesome Mets prospects who are too slow for Citi Field, and Nick Evans who can help their horrendous offense in 2011.
New York gets Nick Franklin, who is a very toolsy SS/2B prospect who just had a fantastic year in the minors, and Doug Fister, who is an above average 26 year old starting pitcher with an awesome last name.
Why would a team that puts a major premium on defense
in a pitchers stadium want prospects that are too slow for us?
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon (and Billy King-Paul G B)
Well they do have a DH
but I don’t see why trading Flores, who’s about 3-4 years away, makes sense.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Josh Byrnes/Chip Hale as Mets 2011 GM/Manager.
Why trade a solid prospect for a pitcher when there are perfectly acceptable options available that don't cost our top prospects.
You’re clearly not high on Flores, but what do you reasonably expect him to bring back in a trade? Why waste an asset now when we can simply sign whatever pitcher we prefer on the market, it’s not like we’ll be getting a guy via trade that we don’t have to pay.
2011 Wishlist:
Bobby V, John Hart, Javy Vazquez, Chone Figgins, Gerald Laird, Randy Choate, Jesse Crain
by Stephen Schmidt on Oct 1, 2010 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
See my next post
where I propose a trade that brings in one of Seattle’s top prospects to the Mets, who would be a better fit for us.
I can't see why the Mariners would even consider your deal.
Jack Z is clearly a stat based guy, he’s not going to sell a 3 WAR pitcher with 5 more years of team control and a top 19 year old prospect thats already in AA for that package. You’re seriously underestimating other teams assets.
2011 Wishlist:
Bobby V, John Hart, Javy Vazquez, Chone Figgins, Gerald Laird, Randy Choate, Jesse Crain
by Stephen Schmidt on Oct 1, 2010 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Hey, I'm just throwing out ideas
There are no MLB starting pitchers in the upcoming free agent market that I like.
Now, Yu Darvish. I’d like to see the Mets spend the Wilpon’s money on him.
Why trade a player so far away from the majors?
And by the time Flores is even ready David’s defense at third will probably be reaching the double digit negatives, the kids like 3-4 years away.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon (and Billy King-Paul G B)
Do you realize how small the sample sizes you're using to prove his regression are?
You can’t make any sort of accurate conclusion with monthly data from a guy that plays every 5th day.
2011 Wishlist:
Bobby V, John Hart, Javy Vazquez, Chone Figgins, Gerald Laird, Randy Choate, Jesse Crain
by Stephen Schmidt on Oct 1, 2010 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
how?
considering his career numbers and flyball tendencies?
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon (and Billy King-Paul G B)
His age and 2010 performance
Also, he would have to pitch about half of his games outside of Citi Field.
javy would be much better playing at citi
for a cheap price…it would be a great signing
by Mike Clemente on Oct 1, 2010 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
holy shit I saw the numbers for qualls and lopez
I might kill myself.
But I like Javy he just sucks in the AL he can be a good 4 or innings eater guy.
by HELLYEAHGARYOAK on Oct 6, 2010 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
The Angels have Kendry Morales
not really a spot for Lee.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon (and Billy King-Paul G B)
This seems to be way too early
considering we know nothing about teams needs and money and other factors.
But what do I know.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
by Steve Schreiber on Sep 30, 2010 11:17 PM EDT reply actions
This
2011 Wishlist:
Bobby V, John Hart, Javy Vazquez, Chone Figgins, Gerald Laird, Randy Choate, Jesse Crain
by Stephen Schmidt on Oct 1, 2010 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Dunn to Atlanta?
Isn’t Freeman supposed to start for them next year unless you have Dunn playing LF in Atlanta.
Is the sun going to come up tomorrow?
yeah and I can't see them signing him to play left field
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon (and Billy King-Paul G B)
what's with the Javy Vazquez love?
the guy just fails in NY.
however, I can definitely see him a Met in 2011, especially if Omar is still here.
I also don’t think the dodgers have the cash to pony up for too many free agents.
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
I think it has a lot more to do with Yankee Stadium and the AL East than it does just being in NY
but I agree with the Dodgers not taking on more money. They’re in a real bad spot.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Josh Byrnes/Chip Hale as Mets 2011 GM/Manager.
Some good predictions here
I like Victor Martinez to Detroit – they’re going to have a lot of money to spend. I think they may bid for Werth too, and a pitcher like Vazquez, if they don’t get Lee (which they won’t). I read Detroit may have upwards of $70mil coming off their payroll this year, counting Magglio’s option.
Remember too the Rays will have $15-20mil to spend. My guess for them would be re-signing Soriano and Pena.
Good call on Berkman going to the Rangers, essentially replacing Guerrero.
They won't be spending much
They’re cutting payroll down to $51 million.
Is the sun going to come up tomorrow?
yeah if anything they might be selling some "big" contracts
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon (and Billy King-Paul G B)
what contracts do they have that are 'big'?
by Mike Clemente on Oct 1, 2010 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Garza ($3.35M), Shields ($2.5M), Wheeler ($3.5M)
Navarro ($2.1M), and Shoppach ($2.25M)
Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Josh Byrnes/Chip Hale as Mets 2011 GM/Manager.
Those numbers are all what they made for the '10 season.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Josh Byrnes/Chip Hale as Mets 2011 GM/Manager.
Shields
I believe Shields is signed for $4.25mil in 2011 with 3 years of options and buyouts. Reasonable for some teams, but perhaps trade fodder for the Rays considering Hellickson, Davis and all the other live arms they have in their system. I bet they move him for prospects (or a closer?) and look to add offense.
Well you know at least one of the above catchers will be moved because they have the cheaper and just as good Jaso.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Josh Byrnes/Chip Hale as Mets 2011 GM/Manager.
yeah Garza and Shields are the two that most reports say they'll try and move
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon (and Billy King-Paul G B)
Link?
2011 Wishlist:
Bobby V, John Hart, Javy Vazquez, Chone Figgins, Gerald Laird, Randy Choate, Jesse Crain
by Stephen Schmidt on Oct 1, 2010 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks
Misread his comment, I thought that it was implying the Tigers were slashing payroll.
2011 Wishlist:
Bobby V, John Hart, Javy Vazquez, Chone Figgins, Gerald Laird, Randy Choate, Jesse Crain
by Stephen Schmidt on Oct 1, 2010 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Yankees gonna get Cliff Lee and Carl Crawford
Nothing else matters. CAN ANYONE SEE THREEPEAT, BABY?!
CHAMPTIONS!
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Oct 2, 2010 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Well I think they're going to get Lee, Crawford, Dunn, Werth, Martinez, AND Beltre
Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Josh Byrnes/Chip Hale as Mets 2011 GM/Manager.
and black black Jesus
they’ll trade joba for him
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon (and Billy King-Paul G B)
An they'll sign Raptor Jesus to be their backup SS.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Josh Byrnes/Chip Hale as Mets 2011 GM/Manager.
Shouldn't they win two before you start worrying about three?
They still haven’t even won their division, much less a world series
2011 Wishlist:
Bobby V, John Hart, Javy Vazquez, Chone Figgins, Gerald Laird, Randy Choate, Jesse Crain
by Stephen Schmidt on Oct 2, 2010 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions
That's a troll man....
A troll. The return of GeddyLeeIsGod…..
and play a T-Rex as DH
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
I want Jorge De la rosa
unlikely I know. But his stuff is incredible and yet since he is coming of an injury he might not be that expensive. And he has proven he can pitch well against good teams. he is not talked about as much but I think he is poised to become an elite pitcher nexr year if he is healthy.
I really like him too
but someone said he reportedly turned down a big contract from Colorado already so it’s not so likely he comes at such a great price anymore.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Josh Byrnes/Chip Hale as Mets 2011 GM/Manager.
My wildass guess
is that the new GM will be allowed to add only guys making the minimum through a trade, leaving the rotation as of Opening Day either
Pelfrey
Dickey
Niese
Mejia
Gee
or something very similar.
Wow—that’s an incredibly thin rotation. Who the heck is the number six on that staff?
Ugh....
This hurts my brain. Sadly, I presume that you are correct.
It had to happen eventually!
It is nice to see Duda whacking the ball and playing tolerable defense. Sort of like getting a free OFer, which the team is desperately going to need next year.
I’m going to guess the little contretemps with Jailhouse Roddy this season will let the Mets off the hook wrt his vesting option. Even if they have to take him back and pay his salary in 2011 I imagine they won’t feel any strong obligation to pitch him as they would if no option existed—that, and the likelihood that they won’t be in contention, meaning that keeping him on the pine or pulling him early isn’t going to spoil a shot at the postseason, tells me that the $17.5m vest from hell just isn’t going to happen. That has to be good news re the team’s chances in 2012. That leaves Bay and Santana as the only payroll drains, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they contributed 2 or 3 wins apiece in 2012—not great, but everyone’s got a few guys who can’t pull the weight of their salary.
There aren’t going to be a lot of positive events next season, so I’m finding them where I can.
Duda
is 15 for his last 45 by my count, with 4 hr. Not a bad finish to a break-out season. I think that gives him 27 hr total between AA, AAA and MLB. Be a shame to have him and others like Evans completely shut out of a big league spot by Bay and Beltran.
Yet you want to use a roster spot that could be used on Duda, for a Reed Johnston or Randy Winn...
Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Josh Byrnes/Chip Hale as Mets 2011 GM/Manager.
just imagine
a roster that doesn’t have two wasted spots with Ollie and Castillo!!!
Obviously we need a back-up OF. Why not get a guy that we can cut with no remorse or trade easily if he proves redundant? While I’d like to think one of the kids will definitely be ready, I’m sure I don’t have to go into case after case of September stars that were never seen again…
But what I'm saying is that Reed Johnston or Randy Winn aren't even sufficient to hedge your bets on Duda.
These guys should be counted on to be emergency call-up at most, non-contract ST invitees at worst.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Josh Byrnes/Chip Hale as Mets 2011 GM/Manager.
I'll take anyone
My main point is, see if we can open LF up by trading Bay for a pitcher and bring in a place-holder until Duda or Fernando or Evans or anyone else is ready.
Other potential names: Corey Patterson, Austin Kearns, Marcus Thames, Jose Guillen, Andruw Jones, Xavier Nady, Brad Hawpe, Willie Harris, Eric Hinske.
I'd love it
if Duda is really ready. 25-year old with 27 hrs between 3 levels last year. Could be. But as long as we have Bay and Beltran on the team we won’t find out.
We already found out
Duda was .314/.345/.647/.993 in his final 16 games after he started his MLB with a slump. Also, we need to carry 4 outfielders who can produce due to injuries and needed days off. Also, half of the interleague games require a DH.
There is nothing wrong with Bay/Beltran/Pagan in the OF, with Duda backing them and Ike up.
No reason to sign another outfielder.
Sandy Alderson for GM!
R.A. Dickey for Governor!
eh I'm not sure 16 game sample size is enough
to make any judgements, also we’ll probably need a 4th outfielder who can play every of position.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon (and Billy King-Paul G B)
Good point about the small sample size
but do we really think that he needs another year of AAA?
I’m thinking that between Beltran and Pagan, we’re probably covered in CF, although it is probably a good idea to have another body on the bench. I could see Jesus Feliciano as a bench warmer who is there for emergencies.
Sandy Alderson for GM!
R.A. Dickey for Governor!
small sample size
do we really need to go chapter and verse with all the Kevin Maases and Gregg Jefferieses in baseball history who came up in September and looked great?
There is nothing particularly wrong with having Bay/Beltran/Pagan in the OF except that a) we need more pitching; and b) you don’t bring up a 25-year old kid to be a 4th OF. So why not see if we can move one of our OFs for pitching and open up a spot for a kid? Between the three of the regulars, I think Bay is the guy I’d most like to move.
We can get more pitching in the free agent market
Especially because the Mets don’t have a firm budget.
Trading Jason Bay before the all star break will yield the worst return. You don’t trade players when their value is temporarily depressed. Also, as much as I like Duda, Jason Bay is better suited for Citi Field. If we have to trade someone for pitching, Duda will probably get the Mets a better return.
Sandy Alderson for GM!
R.A. Dickey for Governor!
Mets budget
I will be looking closely at who they hire for GM and manager for an idea as to their budget. A hire of for instance John Hart and Bobby V would bode well for a little flexibility with spending. A hire of say Kim Ng and Wally would seem to indicate tighter purse strings (or European Carryall strings if you will). My impression is, despite what the Wilpons say, they are at or near the max they want to spend for 2011. I’ll be glad to be proven wrong on that.
Mine.
Cliff Lee – Mets
Carl Crawford – Red Sox
Jayson Werth – Yankees
Victor Martinez – Tigers
Adrian Beltre – Red Sox (wouldn’t rule out A’s, Cardinals or Padres, though)
Derek Jeter – Yankees (but imagine how funny things would be if they didn’t? I would sign him and make him sit on the bench)
Orlando Hudson – Mets
Juan Uribe – Mets
Jose Lopez – Cardinals/mets
Paul Konerko – White Sox
Adam Dunn – Nats
Derrek Lee – Braves
Mark Ellis – Athletics
Felipe Lopez – White Sox/mets
Jorge De La Rosa – Dodgers/mets
Hiroki Kuroda – Dodgers/mets
Magglio Ordonez – Dodgers/ sox
John Buck – Dodgers
Carlos Pena – Nationals
Hisanori Takahashi – Mets
Javier Vazquez – Mets
Chad Qualls – D-backs
Rodrigo Lopez – Mets – minor league role
David DeJesus – Royals
Xavier Nady – Nationals
Coco Crisp – A’s
Jorge Cantu – Cubs
Jake Westbrook – Cardinals
Bronson Arroyo – Reds
Aaron Harang – Dodgers
Jon Garland – Rockies
Ted Lilly – Braves
Eric Hinske – Braves
Adam LaRoche – White Sox
Lance Berkman – Rangers
Lyle Overbay – Blue Jays
Vlad Guerrero – Orioles
Andruw Jones – Rays
Aramis Ramirez – Cubs
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