18 Runs Applesauce - Mets offense wakes up in finale, Omar's nightmare flight, meh Mejia
by Joe Budd on Sep 6, 2010 7:54 AM EDT
in Applesauce
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Meet the Mets
The Buffalo Bisons Mets might have dropped two out of three at Wrigley over the weekend, but hey they scored 18 runs in one game, in a way that was as unique as you would expect when this Met team scores 18 runs.
Unfortunately, however, Jenrry Mejia did not exactly distinguish himself in his starting pitching debut on Staurday. The starting rotation is still up in the air as Johan Santana will miss his next start, giving Dillon Gee a shot.
Just in case you have forgotten, the Mets have not had a good right fielder for a while. Why not give Lucas Duda a shot to fix that?
Deadspin reported that Omar Minaya got heckled during his flight to Chicago, while flying coach. This may be the best evidence yet that Minaya is on the outs.
Ed Hearn will be honored September 10th at Citi Field.
And, finally, Xerox and Mr. Met make sweet music together.
Around MLB
Nyjer Morgan got an 8 game suspension for his spat with the Marlins.
The Marlins prove again that their management and ownership are bush league, refusing to honor Bobby Cox during his farewell tour.
Jayson Werth's future in Philadelphia is still unclear.
Chipper Jones may not be playing on the field, but his heckling from the dugout earned him a one game suspension.
Mike Hampton is back in the majors.
Josh Hamilton does not seem too optimistic about his current injury.
The Giants somehow are just trailing the Padres by one game after San Diego started losing a lot.
Albert Pujols and Colby Rasmus are not getting along.
Jim Thome has now hit more home runs than Mark McGwire.
Tim Marchman calls out Murray Chass and explains the proper role for WAR in our analysis.
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a future RF for the Mets
what do you guys think of attempting to acquire Colby Rasmus?
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
All foe it
But it would probably cost us a ton. If we could do it centered around F! I am all for it. I have all but given up on him despite his young age, the BB rate kills me.
by MetsKnicksRutgers on Sep 6, 2010 8:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Pass
Injuries aside, the outfield is not the Mets weak spot. I also don’t think that he is good enough to be the Mets future rightfielder. He strikes me as a head case who will never reach his potential.
The Mets need to concentrate on their weak areas, which is 2B and pitching.
Pass?
On Rasmus? Almost anyone except Wright or Reyes for Rasmus. Maybe not Mejia, but anyone else, and I’ll pick him up at the airport.
and maybe even wright or reyes
due to contractual issues, but I’d prefer to spend the money on Reyes or Wright on home-grown sentimentality and fact Rasmus hasn’t actually put up any season as good as they have yet.
um have you actually read any of the stories
or just the headlines and taken reporters words for whats happened? He hasn’t done anything wrong, more likely LaRussa is a dick and Pujols overreacted to a media snippet without actually reading what Ramsus has said.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
if the price is right, ok
even though he seems to have very little tolerance for whatever team he’s on losing, which could be an issue if he became a Met
Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?
by KeithsMoustache on Sep 6, 2010 9:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Rasmus
If Rasmus is actually available, that’s the type of player that would adjust my thinking for the offseason. At present, I am thinking the Mets will (mostly) have to tinker around the edges. Rasmus is the type of player I’d be willing to build around. If, for some reason, the Cards would do a deal with a Reyes/Rasmus swap at the core, I would seriously consider it.
and we have a lot more options in the outfield than middle infield.
that’s not a deal i consider, unless they add someone else to the trade.
John Olerud, Hall of Famer. Got a nice ring to it.
I am just thinking in terms of building asset value
Rasmus would be under team control for four more seasons; Reyes is under control for one. Rasmus will be making close to the league minimum next year; Reyes will be making $11 million, assuming the Mets pick up his option. You can trade your surplus outfielders after acquiring a piece like Rasmus, I think. Pagan, your most valuable asset right now, becomes expendable, and you can deal him for younger players. With luck, Beltran agrees to move out to RF, so you have an OF of Bay-Rasmus-Beltran, with Duda and Evans waiting in the wings as injury replacements.
I do not believe that the Cards would make a trade like that, but if they were willing to, I would go for it, and then worry about filling the holes later.
yeah
I’d say bringing in Ramsus to move Pagan is a negative value move every way you look at it. You’ve shipped off a 6 WAR of under team control for 2 more years because you got one who will likely be less valuable but under control for 2 years longer? How exactly do you make up the value lost in terms of an 3-4 WAR short stop under contract for 11.5 million and a 6 WAR outfielder who isn’t likely to make more than 5-6 million next year? Even with the addition of Ramsus you’ve got to make up 6 WAR, and now the only spot to make it up at is one of the hardest spots on the diamond to fill, ss. The excess funds don’t matter if there’s no one to spend it on.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
I can't see any possible way we have the bullets to trade for him
he’s under team control for 4 more years.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
Start with F! or Kirk
and I think we have a chance.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Josh Byrnes/Chip Hale as Mets 2011 GM/Manager.
same here
Ramsus is a good bet to be a 3.5-4 WAR player who’s still got a year before he’s arb eligible. Though I imagine because of that the price would be even higher than F! Kirk, there are probably teams that would offer major league players, or higher prospects.
Like just for example, though I’m not even sure the cards would accept this for BJ, a Ramsus for one of the Uptons swap.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
So how about Pagan & F!?
Is Pagan arb. illegible for 1 or 2 more years?
Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Josh Byrnes/Chip Hale as Mets 2011 GM/Manager.
I wouldn't do that
Pagan’s arb eligible for 2 more years. That seems like a negative move unless you expect Pagan to see an insane raise, or Ramsus to become a 5-6 WAR player. You get a player under control 2 more years but since he’s already used two of his cheapest years you really only get 1 year of him being paid substantially less than Pagan will be. Although it also depends on how big of a drop off you expect from Pagan the next two years.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
If Pagan was only arb. illegible for 1 more year than I'd say "OK"
2 more, not so much as I don’t really expect his production to drop much because he’s shown the ability to do it in the past if he only had the PA’s to do so.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Josh Byrnes/Chip Hale as Mets 2011 GM/Manager.
Neither do I
especially since he has 2 more arbitration illegible years left.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Josh Byrnes/Chip Hale as Mets 2011 GM/Manager.
So....
Ike doesn’t car?
/sad face
Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Josh Byrnes/Chip Hale as Mets 2011 GM/Manager.
I guess not.
Weird how that meme spread, no?
"Omar has had it with all these people pointin' out his motherfuckin mistakes on this motherfuckin plane"
Pure gold and rec’d for that commenter at deadspin.
The marchman article was really good too, and this is coming from someone who isn’t the biggest fan of WAR because of how highly weighted UZR is.
by MetsKnicksRutgers on Sep 6, 2010 8:28 AM EDT reply actions
There are sources who don't use UZR in their WAR calculations.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Josh Byrnes/Chip Hale as Mets 2011 GM/Manager.
Yup
I was just pointing out that if he prefers TotalZone or something else, there’s a WAR for him.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
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I dislike TZ even more than UZR
UZR is my favorite, but I can’t put too much stock into it, because it’s incredibly volatile. And I don’t know how much UZR is weighted in FG WAR but I’d imagine it has to be more than 15%. With nyjer Morgan getting something like 3+ WAR last year and guittierez with I think 5+ neither having an outstanding offensive season (though franklins was pretty good) it had to be weighted more than 15. WAR is the best total analysis rit now, but I will take woba first and then look at UZR as a good, but not great barometer for defensive skill. It is still incredibly hard to truly quantify defense, and I don’t really know if we will ever get there.
by MetsKnicksRutgers on Sep 6, 2010 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions
WAR also takes into account base-running.
I agree that UZR isn’t perfect, far from it actually, but like WAR it’s the best we have and if you know and acknowledge it’s shortcomings, It’s not a deal-breaker IMO.
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In lobby for Josh Byrnes/Chip Hale as Mets 2011 GM/Manager.
on average
morgan and guitz are exceptions, because of how insane of defensive seasons they had, on the same scale batting RAR is usually much much much bigger. Guitterez and Morgan just had crazy seasons, hence how their numbers came down to earth. If you take the league WAR and compare batting rar to defensive rar batting war far outweighs it. fangraphs had a post about it a few weeks ago.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
It is
It’s converted to runs on FanGraphs, listed under “DRS”. Unfortunately it doesn’t seem too useful in season, because the total DRS runs in MLB right now is +377, compared to -0.4 for UZR. You’d expect a stat like that to add up to close to zero. Apparently DRS needs adjustments or something before it makes sense.
by James Kannengieser on Sep 7, 2010 8:05 AM EDT up reply actions
Murray Chass
needs to stop writing. He really is a thicko
"We're investigating the investigative procedure of the investigation of Tony Bernazard"---Omar Minaya (he really didn't say it but he would"
He does good work covering labor issues
But that’s it. Everything else seems to be non-stop bashing of statistics. The Tim Marchman post is fantastic.
by James Kannengieser on Sep 6, 2010 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions
I know I'm a little tardy to this party...
But the Marchman post is indeed fantastic. I think in one of his examples—the Clemens/Koufax one—he actually underscores a further weakness in WAR, even for him. Koufax had his career cut very short, and so in using career WAR to determine who was a better pitcher, for the time he played, this kind of falls flat (except to the extent you can use it to say Clemens was unfortunately really good).
The point about stats being imprecise and painting with a broad brush on a season to season basis: very good.
by MookieTheCat on Sep 6, 2010 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not sure that underscores a weakness of WAR
More a weakness of using the stat to determine who was a better pitcher. A problem of methodology rather than a problem with the stat itself.
by James Kannengieser on Sep 7, 2010 8:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Stop and think on Colby Rasmus
It’s extremely intriguing to think about Colby Rasmus patrolling CF for the Mets the talent is there but it’ seems his daddy is a butinski so I’s be careful that Rasmus is not the second coming of Gregg Jefferies
I don't get why everyone has to honor Bobby Cox
Great manager, but unless I’m the Braves or another team he’s managed/played for I’m not doing squat. This would go for any player/manager/owner/whatever, regardless of how legendary they were.
"I bet you'd lobby her, you horny 15 year old!" -Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan
This
I think it’s a situation where teams should be applauded for honoring Cox, but not expected to.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
In lobby for Josh Byrnes/Chip Hale as Mets 2011 GM/Manager.
besides
the Cardinals seem allergic to giving their youth playing time, just like the Metsies. plus, I think La Russa is a douche of a manger…wasn’t he the guy who insisted on the invention of LOOGIES and such?
and response to NYC Russ—the outfield isn’t a weak spot? have you been watching this team from 2006-to now?
they have one great outfielder in CB (zans the injury) and they surround him with subpar outfielders….and Angel Pagan’s emergence not withstanding, as pleasant surprise as it was.
I agree with Metsguy 234. Bobby Cox is blah. I hope the Mets don’t do something to tick off real Mets’ fans and “honor” that danged Braves manager….that would be akin to smashing your own foot with a hammer.
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
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