Labor Day Blowout Applesauce - Pelfrey struggles, Yu Darvish speculation, Ollie hopeful for 2011
by Joe Budd on Sep 7, 2010 7:12 AM EDT
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Meet the Mets
Labor Day was not much of a holiday for the Mets or their fans, as the Nats crushed Mike Pelfrey 13-3. Keith Hernandez had some harsh words about Pelfrey's inconsistency. Patrick Flood argues instead that Pelfrey's "mental issues" may just be understanding that he's someone who is overly subject to randomness: a ground ball pitcher.
The Mets are expected to make a strong play for Japanese star Yu Darvish. Mack has some fun video of Darvish in the Japanese league.
Oliver Perez insists that he will be on the team next year and hopes that it will be in the starting rotation.
Speaking of bad contracts, Section 518 reminds us how bad the K-Rod deal is.
Toby Hyde offers some insight on what the last few games of the minor league season meant.
Around MLB
Jayson Werth is signaling to the world that he's not totally ready to stay in Philadelphia, hiring Scott Boras.
The "B" in Jackie Robinson's name fell on a fan in Toronto after getting hit by a foul ball.
John Harper insists that Buck Showalter's knowing the mileage to and from 2011 Spring Training games means that Showalter will make the Orioles a competitive force in the near future.
While we're talking about managers, Joe Posnanski writes an interesting piece on fans' manager fatigue, focusing in particular on Tony La Russa.
Aroldis Chapman's hands may be too large to throw a good change up.
And, finally, Felix Hernandez has been awfully good.
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I am the only one who doesn't get excited over Japanese signings
I mean it seems to be at best a 50/50 shot that they make any impact in MLB. I would say Ichiro and Hadeki Matsui were the only ones who really played well for an extended period of time. Dice-K sometimes pitches well, Nomo had some good years.
The mets haven’t had the greatest success with it, Tak2 is doing nicely, Iggy sucked so far, Sinjo had a few moments but really never played better than OK, Kaz Matsui was OK at best.
Any task BIG or small, Do it well or not at all
So, some good, some bad
Sounds like, well, Dominicans, Venezuelans, and ballplayers from the good old U.S. of A. to me.
Yeah, but Darvish is a different league, only Ichiro is comparable to him
Its like saying draft isnt exciting and 50/50, because Mets got Humber and Nats got Strasburg
That was almost word for word the reports on Dice-K
Reyes, Thole, Wright, Beltran, Bay, Davis, Martinez, Tejada...
by Stephen Schmidt on Sep 7, 2010 8:31 AM EDT up reply actions
two words
SHIN JO.
the greatest. met. ever.
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
Read Darvish's Wiki...
Shinjo’s name pops up.
How is Darvish in a different league?
He’s an untested Japanese pitcher who got absolutely burned when he went against international competition. I’m not getting too excited…yet.
"Burned?"
He was iffy in 7 innings of work at the ’08 Olympics… then threw for a 2.08 ERA w/ 20K in 13 innings at the ’09 WBC.
Also, SSS! SSS! SSS!
by LeiterMilnerFasterStronger on Sep 7, 2010 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah....
Most of which was against that international powerhouse China. He looked not so good against South Korea. And he was bad against Cuba, which I think gives a better semblance of what he would see in the majors. I think you’re right on the SSS point, but I’m just not convinced that being a star in the Japan League means a whole lot more than being Mike Hessman in AAA. Sure there is the occasional Nomo, but there is more often the Irrigations.
For those wanting more Darvish signing and general info, this is good.
Hold up--
—are we specifically talking about 20 innings of work?
Not being snide, just aiming for clarification.
Yeah kinda.
A little more perhaps, but the only thing we have to work with.
you forgot hideo nomo
he was pretty darn good for a long while. and Hiroki Kuroda isn’t bad.
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
oops my bad
I am still half-asleep..didn’t read your entire passage carefully enough.
you’re right most Japanese players aren’t very successful here. But like many Latin American prospects, it’s a hit or miss. Yu Darvish might be all right. I’d say Dice-K was good until he got hurt
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
And what about our very own ...
Masato Yoshii?
What would Ghandi do?
by metfanintheuk on Sep 7, 2010 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Wow!
Evidently Yoshii is Yu Darvish’s pitching coach. I think.
What would Ghandi do?
by metfanintheuk on Sep 7, 2010 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions
(you're right) per Wikipedia
… [Masato Yoshii] currently a pitching coach for the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters
Darvish is 24 years old
by far the youngest of the japanese superstars to sign here. He’s also the best.
by TheBigStapler on Sep 7, 2010 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Darvish sounds like a plan.
Especially because its not my money. If he’s that good and we get him, we can put the “is Mejia ready to be the Mets’ 5th starter?” question to rest. It would be nice to start 2011 with a “locked and loaded” starting rotation.
Or for the cost of the posting and signings...
We could sign 3 pitchers, a 2B, and maybe get a 4th outfielder who can get a walk every once in a while.
What if SNY picks up the tab?
I don’t know what the projected numbers are, but if Darvish can justify SNY paying for most of his signing, then why not?
I normally don’t like free agent signings, but from what I’ve read on the web today, he has elite potential. Elite starting pitchers in Mets uniforms make me happy.
The way I see it...
Posting is a huge up-front cost. If he turns into the next [name hyped Japanese player who didn’t work out] it’s a huge sunk cost. Darvish is signed in Japan thru 2013 and makes about $3.5 a year. Obviously he would be interested in making more, but the Fighters would expect quite a bit of Ham to let him go. I doubt the increased value to Bay Ridge Toyota or the NYS Smoker’s Quitline would justify the up-front payment, even if the broadcast rights could be sold to Japan. He’s still a once-every-five-days-at-best player.
Here's my angle
I don’t want the Mets to try to build a team that has a shot at winning. I want the Mets to build a team that should be a dynasty. That means at least 3 elite starting pitchers. Such pitchers are hard to come by. Darvish moves us in that direction.
I really don’t know if such an investment would pay for itself for SNY, but what if Japanese broadcast rights did pay for Darvish?
I would prefer they build a team that can get to .500 first.
I think part of the problem with this team is that they are focused on getting “that guy,” meaning the biggest star they have any shot of singing, and they pay through the nose for it (think K-Rod and his lovely vest). I would love it if the team ponied up and got some world-class guys, but before that there needs to be the infrastructure of a solid infield, decent middle relief, decent back of the rotations pitchers, and bench players who can either get wood on the ball of finagle a walk every so often (or, perish the thought, both) and are at least not a liability on defense. There is no money for a Darvish right now if what we have been led to believe is true, but there is a chance that this offseason the team can put together a cast of decent supporting guys and sign them to relatively cheap deals with team options or arbitration in the event of unexpected upside, and a chance to be done with a guy in the event of unexpected downside.
Don’t get me wrong: Darvish might be a great addition. I feel, however, that this is simply the wrong focus for the team right now. He won’t win a lot with Johanesque run support, no matter how good he may prove to be.
Pelfrey: going into 2010 if you said he woul dhave 13+ wins I woul dhave taken it
I was not confident in Pelf back in March. I felt going into the season we were looking at a guy that would post an 8-13 record with a 4.70 ERA if we were lucky.
13-9 with a sub 4.00 is a surprise to me. plus he looks like he will pass 185 IP again.
he seemed to run out of gas, or considence after the all start game. if he can maintain a little better next season, he can win 16 and stay around 3.50…but he could also go back to 8 wins and a 5.00 if his head gets in the way.
Any task BIG or small, Do it well or not at all
I'm glad I passed on the game yesterday
I’m going tonight for Gee’s debut instead, and maybe tomorrow for DICKEY! but not sure if I can skip a day’s work. Damn you, midweek day games!
Pelfrey is simply just not that good a pitcher
he has always been overrated to me, maybe he’s a bullpen/closer type?
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
Pelfrey has been the third best pitcher on the team
Why would you want to dump him in the bullpen?
Pelfrey may not be elite
but he is a credible starter in a five man rotation. Until the Mets have five starters who are better than Pelfrey, he should stay in the rotation. Sending him to the bullpen would probably diminish his value. If we ever actually get five starters who are better, he could be traded. Lots of teams would love to have him in their rotation.
I understand being frustrated with some of his terrible performances
But Pelfrey is an average to above average pitcher. ERA+ of 98 the last 3 seasons, FIP this year is 3.96 (league average is 4.12). Top 35 in the NL in starting pitcher FanGraphs WAR. Even if he’s never more than that, there’s value in having an average starting pitcher.
by James Kannengieser on Sep 7, 2010 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Yup. The only problem wrt Pelfrey is wanting him to be something other than he is,
which is a durable, middle of the rotation starter who can occasionally pitch a gem. What would he get as a FA this offseason—3/30?
It would have to be close to that…
Since Darvish is not a free agent, he’d probably cost the Mets upwards of $100 million in posting fees and a MLB contract - the same way the BoSox will have spent about $100 million on Dice-K. I’d rather the Mets took that $100 million, spread it out and signed 50 to 80 premier amateurs, – international + draft – over the next 5 years.
That changes things
If you have a link about Boston recouping that money, I’d appreciate it. With the Wilpons trying to build up SNY, Darvish could make sense.
Sorry no link
But at the time there were a ton of articles saying that even if he was posted at $100m it wouldn’t be a big deal because of the revenue
this isn't for the red sox in particular
but it does show how it can affect teams (apparently half the AL has sold advertising rights to Japanese companies just because of Dice-K)
Sox Have Dice-K But Rivals Reaping Ad Dollars
Here’s one about the city of Boston Dice-K fever triggers tourist boom, though I can’t imagine it could have that much of an (a?)effect on tourism in NYC
apparently because most of the ad space in Fenway was sold years and years ago to American Companies they don’t really see that much of an increase. MLB as a whole sees a massive increase because of the television contract with Japanese stations but that’s distributed evenly, same with Boston merchandise sales in Japan. The league as a whole’s revenue sky rockets but Boston only sees 1/32. So it would really depend entirely on how much ad space citifield has left over that can be sold (apparently the Rangers sold ad space behind home plate when Dice-K pitches there for 160k per a half inning)
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
Wait ignore that last part about 160k
apparently that’s the going rate for a seasons worth of ads, for just the games Dice-K pitches in it’s much bigger.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
Remember too that the Mets didn't go cheap on Daisuke--
didn’t they post $37m and change?
They finished
second to the Red Sox in the Dice-K sweepstakes.
Is the sun going to come up tomorrow?
yeah I was about to post this
they more than make it back usually when you sign a Japanese player and keep him, and he’s marginally useful. The upfront costs are probably way to high for the Wilpons to even consider t though.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
I would agree.
The add dollars and tv rights would go along way in recouping the initial investment. I have heard that the Wilpons have connections over there, and have been anxious to gain a foothold in Japan.
I am not sure that the Wilpons have the upfront money, but perhaps there is SNY money that could be used to cover the posting fee since that is seperate from payroll. I think the Mets cover team payroll through ticket sales and not through money generated through SNY.
by Coolpapabell on Sep 7, 2010 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
X-mas list
I think I am going to throw in a Yu Darvish Nippon Hamfighters jersey on my X-mas list.
by Coolpapabell on Sep 7, 2010 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I generally don't like to say this about people I've never met
but I really think Oliver Perez might be the dumbest person I’ve ever encountered. I mean, how can anyone possibly be that oblivious?
2009 Did Not Happen
Well, Castillo and Francouer
were both outraged that the Mets no longer considered them starters despite being among the worst players at their respective positions, so maybe it’s a Mets thing?
meh
there’s a difference between being a starter who doesn’t want to stop starting and being Oliver Perez. I mean, Francouer is terrible, but he would have to hit like .150/.180/.200 for two years in a row to match what Perez has done, refuse a minor league assignment, and THEN be pissed that he wasn’t starting.
2009 Did Not Happen
I disagree...
Francouer was overrated from day 1. If he didn’t look at the deal the Mets gave him and say “Shiva H. Vishnu, this is my lucky day, I better invest this because it ain’t happening again unless I learn to play baseball,” he is truly dumber than Ollie. Castillo is different. He was good for a long while, but his body gave out on him.
by MookieTheCat on Sep 9, 2010 12:37 AM EDT up reply actions
Everyone should read that Patrick Flood article about Pelfrey.
And then all the inane amateur psychoanalysis could stop, finally. I am so so so tired of hearing about his “confidence” and his “mental issues” and his hand-licking and all the other BS.
by JoshNY on Sep 7, 2010 11:18 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
However
Pelfrey’s problems are often in starts where he does not have control, or is not a groundball pitcher. To succeed as that type of pitcher, like Pineiro, you need to walk very few.
It’s true that as a GB pitcher he will be susceptible to random outings with lots of hits and bleeders. Yesterday, he walked 3 in 3 and 2/3rds. He gave up 8 flyballs to 4 groundballs. His hr/fb rate is pretty low in his career. If that evens out, and when he gives up lots of flyballs, he loses the advantage he has of keeping the ball in the park.
Overall, he’s a decent innings eater. Unless he gets his walk rate below 3, or his k rate above 6, or his gb rate above 50% consistently, I don’t see how he will be much more than that. Which doesn’t mean his problem is mental, but some of the at times slight wildness, or ocasional upticks in the flyballs (or liners, he is giving up a lot of them this year compared to the past, which he may have no control over), could indicate a concentration issue. Three run lead, don’t go walking anyone. Live with the bleeders, don’t compound the issue.
Don’t you get the feeling he’d get the x-fip down to 3.75 or so consistently with Duncan as his pitching coach? Which may mean he doesn’t have a concentration issue either, but a coaching issue.
Oh, I definitely agree that he could stand to walk fewer guys and/or strike out more
I just don’t agree with the idea that there’s indication that he needs psychiatric help and not better coaching and/or to be a better pitcher and/or better infielders behind him.
Not pyschiatric help
necessarily. Some kind of help wiith concentration or focus. He sometimes does seem to get the yips-the balk issues last year. maybe he has an issue with the stretch. Bad stuff does seem to tend to snowball on him. While I agree his problems are more lack of strikeouts and the inevitable variability of being a groundballer, that does not mean he has doesn’t have some drift in focus at times. His problems yesterday and his start before that weren’t caused by seeing eye grounders or bloops falling in.
He seems to me to be one of those really long pitchers...
Who can see the details of his mechanics change from one inning to the next. It might be psychological. It might also be a matter of having someone watch his mechanics and take a walk out to the mound when he opens an inning with a walk and something doesn’t look right.
Yeah
I remember in Little League a coach telling all the pitchers to watch my motion as an example of how to pitch. I immediately fell completely apart, couldn’t repeat it worth a damn. I can still recall that burst of pride and then being mortified 35 years later. I know that’s a long way from the bigs, but thinking about something you normally do naturally can screw you up.
It is pretty ridiculous if Justin Turner does not get a call up today
and an opportunity to play over Luis Hernandez, who he is clearly better than.
It was ridiculous
after about 30-40 Tejada PAs.
even if Turner gets called up, he may just warm the bench like Nick Who
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
Just a question
But do you think Pelfrey’s problems could be due to the fact that Warthen isn’t that good of a pitching coach?
"WHO WOULD LEAD?! THE CLOWN?!"
by I'mGivingYouARaise on Sep 7, 2010 3:14 PM EDT reply actions
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