Where Should Carlos Beltran Play in 2010
by Mike Clemente on Sep 7, 2010 12:59 PM EDT
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PrintThe headline pretty much says it all. We can all assume that Beltran will be moving to RF next year, although that's a pretty big assumption given some of the moves/non-moves this team has made in the past. But moving forward with the assumption that he will slide over next season, how should we treat Beltran this year? Should the Mets give Beltran a head start on the inevitable and shift him over to RF now, or is learning a new position while trying to get his legs under him too much to ask.
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I don't see why "we can all assume" Beltran is moving to right
and that a non-move would be another example of the Mets screwing something up. Sure, he’ll probably never be the CF he was, but an offseason of rest, conditioning and being further from surgery could help. Pagan’s D is totally sweet at all three outfield positions, his defense brings value whether he’s at a premium defensive position or not. So, for me, I will reserve judgement until I see how Beltran looks in spring training. As for this season, I prefer Beltran work on getting his timing at the plate back as well as learning to play with the brace rather than try to learn a position that he hasn’t played since the Mets were in the world series.
Beltran is -11.3 UZR/150 right now, and was -6 last year
Pagan was +2.1 last year, and +13.1 this year. Not putting the better fielder in center is a bad move.
Will Beltran continue to be terrible in the field? I’m not sure, but it’s unlikely he’ll be as good as Pagan has been over the last few years. A non-move to right is definitely not the correct call – unless Beltran miraculously becomes awesome in the field again.
I guess anything is possible though.
by Mike Clemente on Sep 7, 2010 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Pagan's career UZR/150 in RF is 24.7.
A run saved in RF is just as valuable as a run saved in CF. I don’t believe you have to automatically put the best fielder in CF. Say for example that Pagan who is solid in all OF positions has a +10 UZR anywhere in the OF. However, Beltran has a -5 in CF and a -10 in RF, then I would argue putting Pagan in RF is the right move.
Again, I will reserve judgement until I see how Beltran looks in spring training.
although isn't the common assumption that
moving to a corner spot ups your UZR by like +10 runs or something?
by Mike Clemente on Sep 7, 2010 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I think in general,
but on an individual it’s tough to say. Pagan and Endy played better in the corners but Mike Cameron brief stint in RF didn’t go so well. Of course, there are a lot of factors to consider such as age, sample size, experience at each position. etcetera. I have no idea how Beltran will perform in RF just like I have no idea how his legs will look after a winter of healing, so I’m willing to keep in CF for now and make a decision when more information is available.
this is a good point
but if (And this is clearly speculative) Beltran does’nt have the range to play CF anymore, but still is mobile enough to play an average or above average RF (an “easier” position), then i’d rather have a plus CF and an average to plus RF, than an above average RF and a below average center fielder. In one, the runs saved by one are offset by the runs given up by the other, while in the other scenario, both are playing at the optimal positions for their current skill levels.
Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?
by KeithsMoustache on Sep 7, 2010 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions
ah just realized it said in 2010, not 2011
although I’d still say let pagan continue to develop his skills in CF. He’s greatly improved this season, and more practice can only help to keep him sharp and maybe even improve further
Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?
by KeithsMoustache on Sep 7, 2010 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Quick question about UZR -
If your CF has a higher UZR, does that make it more likely your LF/RF will have higher UZR’s as well? (Versus your RF having the best UZR)
by Criss Angel Couldn't Make Frenchy Vanish on Sep 8, 2010 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I think that for the most part
UZRs are pretty independant of each other; however on the extreme side having a great CF and real weak corner would probably increase the CF UZR while decreasing the corner UZR as the CF will “take plays away” from the corner. I think the amount of plays over the course of the season wouldn’t have that dramatic of an impact but then there are all kinds of other variables such as positioning that would need to be considered. So, I guess what I’m trying to say is I have no idea.
bit of an oversimplification but when you make a catch its added to that fielder's UZR and subtracted from all the fielders who didnt make the play
but its based on each positions probability of making an out in the specific zone of the ball
by Mike Clemente on Sep 8, 2010 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I understand how that's supposed to work, but just for more clarification:
Imagine an outfield that never let a ball drop – making every play. Theoretically, would they have an aggregate UZR of 0? i.e. A CF makes a play in right center that increases his UZR by 0.1, does that mean the RF’s UZR goes down by 0.1?
by Criss Angel Couldn't Make Frenchy Vanish on Sep 9, 2010 1:37 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't think its a zero sum game
since it’s based on the probability of each position making a play. A fly to center may be a .9 probability of an out for the CF, and a .25 probability of a LF making the out.
by Mike Clemente on Sep 9, 2010 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions
well
I think it would be the better move to slide him over to right, but to assume the Mets will do it because of UZR seems to be overrating their stats department just a touch.
ain't had enough...
More than that, it wouldn't be possible as there's no data to use
and wouldn’t be a large enough sample size to use for years. Just giving an example where I would see a reason to put an inferior defenisve player at a position. I’m not really assuming the Mets would do it but more my personal opinion. Although, I’m biased in that I run my baseball mogul team with this method and real baseball might be a bit different than my spreadsheets.
My first choice is CF
If he can play productive baseball, that’s where he should be. If he can’t, my second choice is the bench.
Keep him center the rest of the way
1) Managing veteran ego — why risk upsetting him over 24 games that don’t matter? He’s been a center fielder forever, I’d imagine he doesn’t want to give it up at the drop of a hat.
2) He’s still recovering from injury. Let him focus on his swing and getting healthy.
3) The topic can be broached in the offseason (and I think it should be, Pagan will almost certainly be a better defensive CF next year). Beltran can get reps in right next spring. There’s no urgency here.
by James Kannengieser on Sep 7, 2010 4:03 PM EDT reply actions
Agree with this...
The team will have plenty of opportunity to reevaluate him before next season. Hopefully he is getting PT and the knee will be a lot better then. Just let sleeping dogs lie on this one.
So if Pagan is a +++ fielder in right field
and Beltrans – in cf, but Beltran in rf is average and Pagan is slightly less plus do we assume either orientation is more or less equal?
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
Let's see how he does in Spring Training.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Sep 8, 2010 12:36 AM EDT reply actions
Luis Castillo is already horrible there, so what's the difference?
May you be locked in a battle of wits against Jerry Manuel.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Sep 8, 2010 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Steven Hawking would be better than Castillo...
So I can’t see how Beltran would be too bad.
by MookieTheCat on Sep 8, 2010 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions
i don't trust steven hawking
there’s something about a man who doesn’t stand up for his beliefs.
If you had included Walter Reed as an option, I'm sure it would be a runaway winner.
I kid, I kid.
Hey !. Don't talk to my mami like that.
You should add an option for "not on the Mets"
for all the Beltran haters. I prefer RF as of right now, but I’m still an optimist and I don’t believe he’s finished (i.e. completely unable to play) in CF yet.
by Criss Angel Couldn't Make Frenchy Vanish on Sep 9, 2010 6:32 PM EDT reply actions
trade with cubs?
I’m a guest from bleedcubbieblue. What do you mets fans think of a carlos zambrano for beltran and rodriguez and k-rods buyout money for his last year? It trades salary pretty evenly, and trades bad attitudes (z and krod).
by neifiisgreat on Sep 10, 2010 11:40 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
No thank you.
Beltran, there’s no reason to trade him while his value is at it’s lowest. All signs indicate that, come the 2011 season, he’ll be performing better than he has in his limited 2010 season, meaning that we can keep him and feel somewhat confident at CF/RF, or trade him during the season when his value is up. K-Rod, he didn’t have a fully horrible season in 2010. And, like him or hate him, there isn’t anybody particular on the FA market or in the system right now, that I would be more comfortable with closing games.
Zambrano, at this point, is a middle-of-the-rotation starter. The FA market has a few of those available, most of whom will likely cost less than Zambrano would.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Sep 10, 2010 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions
No thanks
Zambrano’s contract is horrific. If we’re smart, which we’re not but lets pretend, we’ll be done with Beltran and Rodriguez next year and have a combined like 31 million coming off the books. Where as we’d be stuck with Zambrano for an extra year. Plus Zambrano is insane.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
We do need another starter, but no thanks.
Zambrano’s numbers this year are worrisome, while Beltran is coming around and Jailhouse Roddy was pitching well before the whole punching thing.
I’d be adding another ace if it was my money, particularly after Santana’s injury, and certainly want the Mets to pick up one more solid starter for 2011 (they won’t—if they didn’t after 2009 they won’t now). If we deal for Z we’d still need to pick up a starting OFer, so figure on adding $7-10m in payroll just for that…
In my opinion
the Cubs would jump on that trade. The reason I didn’t include Fukudome in my original trade idea was that I didn’t think the Mets would want to add that much payroll. Fukudome, while performing well in August/September has been a very disappointing contract overall, and I think the Cubs would even send a few million along with him to clear payroll, especially if it brought back players with upside, such as Beltran & Rodriguez.
Fukudome and Zambrano have played very well the past month, Z has an ERA of 1.04 in his last 5 starts. I think that the Cubs are still weary of his antics, and I’m not convinced that he will produce much better than the past few years in the next 2 years of his contract, so I think they would move him for a decent return.
by neifiisgreat on Sep 11, 2010 8:04 AM EDT up reply actions
Cubs must take Ollie
Give them freaking Ollie. That is all.
Reyes
Out of curiosity, how do the Mets value Jose Reyes now? With his injury status, and the presence of Wilmer Flores in the system, what would it take to acquire Reyes?
I have a better chance of playing short stop for the mets
than wilmer flores.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
I can....
Really, really, really badly.
by MookieTheCat on Sep 12, 2010 2:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Wilmer Flores isn't considered to be a SS prospect
The general consensus is that he’ll be moved to a corner position.
How do we value him?
Generally speaking, I think we all like Reyes and what he brings to the table, and find him satisfactory. Most other short stops are downgrades from Reyes. The organization, and the general fan base, I’d be surprised if they were still as high on Reyes as we generally are.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Sep 12, 2010 1:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Someone should fanpost(shot?)
Where we would rank Reyes compared to other SS’s?
I put him 3rd behind, Tulowitzki, and H. Ramirez.
On first thought I figured that there would be more guys ahead of him, but I did a quick look, and there is not. So even when Reyes is having a down season, he is still above average for a SS.
BTW Tulowitzki
is freaking awesome. He is having RBI baseball numbers today.
Completely agree
Hanley and Tulo are better. After him, cases can be made for a few other players, based on their strengths and weaknesses as compared to Reyes, but there’s nobody other than those two who are definitely superior to him, while there are plenty who are definitely inferior to him.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Sep 15, 2010 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions
WAR leaders at SS
Here is the WAR leaders. I still put Reyes 3rd.
Hmm...
So, in a down year both offensively and defensively, mired with various injuries, Reyes can still be included in the top 10 (Where’s Jimmy “MVP” Rollins? Exactly.).
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Sep 15, 2010 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I like keeping him in CF
I like keeping Pagan in RF – for 2011 at least. I like moving Bay out of here for a pitcher and bringing Endy back, while working some of the kids in – Fernando, Captain Kirk, Nick Evans, Duda, whoever. And I like keeping Beltran on the Mets at least until the trade deadline. Either we’re in contention and he’s helping, or we’re not and he can either be traded or play out the string. It’s hard to see a scenario where we’d be in contention without Beltran helping. Of course without Johan, it’s hard to see a scenario where we’ll be in contention at all in 2011.
don't see why not
I think the Red Sox may be willing to a) bet that Bay will return to form in Fenway and b) admit that Lackey was a mistake for them. With Bay’s vesting option 5th year, their contracts are almost identical. Alternatively, the Giants have plenty of young pitching and don’t need a $17mil 5th starter. Zito might be pried away, if he’d forgo his no-trade clause. Zito’s remaining contract is also remarkalby similar to Bay’s.
For the Mets, I’m thinking a) we need a veteran arm now more than ever with Santana’s issues; b) we can replace Bay’s whopping 1.3 WAR, 6 HR, 47 RBI; and c) Lackey in particular would benefit from leaving Fenway and AL East for Citi and NL East. I’m less excited about Zito, but would make the deal if Lackey couldn’t be done.
I doubt that anyone will trade for Bay until it is shown that his concussion is behind him
especially with that contract. Also, other teams see the same craptacular numbers that we do.
Even if Bay was tradeable, I wouldn't do it for Lackey.
He’s going to decline much more than Bay during their respective contracts.
May you be locked in a battle of wits against Jerry Manuel.
by BobbyV_Incognito on Sep 16, 2010 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Bay, with his
whopping 1.3 WAR, 6 HR, 47 RBI is not something that is going to repeat. Wright, with his crappy numbers last season, didn’t repeat, and I see no reason to believe that such a huge drop-off in production is anything other than an mostly unexplainable anomaly, like Wright’s season last year was.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Sep 18, 2010 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions
wrights actually been less productive offensively this season
and isn’t at the point where he should be declining, which Bay is.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
Bay's also now going to be recovering from a concussion
and really 2.5-3 WAR is about what we would have been expecting Bay to average over his career even if he had put up a 4 WAR season this year, and since that’s exactly what Lackeys been it’s still pretty likely an even trade.
mediocrity thy name is Wilpon- jdon
The point is that there no reason to think that Bay's 2010 season
is nothing but an aberration. Regardless of whether or not he returns to the level he normally played at (2-5 WAR, given the ups and downs of his career), even with age regression and possibly lingering injury problems, I see no reason why we should believe he is going to be worth 6 HRs worth of offense.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Sep 19, 2010 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions
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