Mets Community Prospect List 2010: #11

Can’t wait to see it.

Question, how big did you consider the disparity in overall stuff? Most of what I read, at least until the very end of last year when those sketchy reports of Familia hitting triple-digits came out, had a disparity in the fastball but not a huge one, and there was some debate as to who had the better second pitch. Its always tough with guys below HiA (who don’t pitch for Brooklyn), as there was only one credible first hand source that I’m aware of who was seeing those players on a regular basis (Newman, though now Toby Hyde’s there too). Most of Newman’s writing seemed to suggest that Familia’s breaking ball was much better than any second pitch Allen had, but there seemed to be more debate among the second-hand prospect guru types who got their info from a variety of scouts. And no one seemed to doubt that Allen had the better third pitch, as Familia didn’t really have one to speak of. The conclusion I remember having at the end of the year was that Familia was a slightly better prospect, as he really just had one large adjustment to make before he could sustain some upper level success: a reliable third pitch, while Allen had many more small adjustments he would have to make: as improving his fastball, developing a true secondary out pitch, cleaning up his mechanics a bit more, etc. Having two plus pitches gave Familia both a higher floor (good chance he’d become a major league reliever even if he never found a third pitch) and a higher ceiling (mostly because of the fastball), but Allen had a more projectable frame and was the better athlete, which counts for something too.

I’ll still stand by the ranking we gave them a year ago, there was a pretty significant dropoff after Allen anyway (Marte was #14), but Familia’s definitely separated himself further this year even with the ugly overall numbers. He still had the better year than Allen, and showed more signs of making the specific adjustment I thought we should be looking for: getting swings and misses from lefty batters.

Are you saying Allen’s stuff is superior to Familia’s? I think they are two totally different pitchers, in that Familia overthrows (25 WPs and 74BB) and doesn’t have a change up that is useful. Which points Familia to the pen. Familia will hit 98 on the gun although it may hit the backstop or be shelled like in the Futures Game.

On the other hand, Allen was reported to be sitting 92/93 early on hitting 94/95 while playing with a cracked vertebrae (as reported) vs strain in his back. Two different bears.

Did Allen tell you he had a cracked vertebrae as was reported vs a strain back?

I read the strain happened early on (like Spring/April) time frame and they Mets continued to run him out there and eventually lead to tests which showed the single crack in the lower back. Multiple cracks would have required surgery, but the spine repairs itself according to google searches.

Having college players come out of the draft and skip Full Season-A isn’t that uncommon regardless of draft position as long as they’re successful. I don’t think the post-draft talent level of SS-A is very different from FS-A. From what I recall the Mets tend to load up Savannah with the younger players who are succeeding anyway, while putting college draftees and older players in Brooklyn. I think a lot of it has to do with how they handle their IFAs too, as Savannah is probably a much easier place to acclimate young, foreign, Spanish speaking players away from the glaring lights of the big city; and also how they handle Brooklyn, as more of a moneymaker and a local franchise that they gear at least as much towards winning games as developing players.

that is clearly something we would do. Void K-rod’s contract just to give up valuable pieces for one that’s nearly as bad.