Jason Bay And Hitting At Citi Field

by Eric Simon on Jan 1, 2011 6:29 PM EST

A happy new year to everyone, especially Anthony DiComo of MLB.com, who penned a column today called "New Mets regime ready for year of change", a ten-question Mets primer for 2011. There are plenty of reasonable concerns here, like whether Ike Davis is the Mets first baseman of the future, if Josh Thole is ready to be an everyday catcher, and what's to come for Angel Pagan and R.A. Dickey, each of whom had a career year in 2010.

DiComo misfired a bit on this one though:

8. Now healthy, can Jason Bay overcome Citi Field's dimensions?

Bay indeed struggled last season after signing a four-year, $66 million deal just under a year ago, but DiComo fell into the trap of assuming Citi Field's inhospitable (to home runs, anyway) dimensions had much to do with Bay's offensive regression with the Mets. In fact, Bay hit far better at home than on the road in 2010:

Split	PA	2B	3B	HR	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BABIP	OPS+
Home	186	12	4	3	.277	.371	.459	.830	.333	121
Away	215	8	2	3	.243	.326	.354	.680	.326	94

These stats are all courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com. Whatever you make of his 2010 season, it's hard not to notice that Bay was far better at home than on the road last year. When adjusting for park, Bay was 21% better than the league at Citi Field and 6% worse than the league away from Citi. Not only that, but his .830 home OPS was second only to David Wright's .880 among Mets regulars.

Bay certainly needs to hit better overall in 2011 and beyond than he did in his first year with the Mets, and he'd no doubt benefit from not missing two-plus months due to whiplash and concussion-related symptoms, but an inability to cope with Citi Field's dimensions probably wasn't even among the top five things holding him back in 2010.

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Comments

God I hope Jason hits better.

And doesn’t get injured.
And doesn’t beat up his dad or tear his shirt off and challenge a minor leaguer to a fight.
Just don’t do stupid shit that normally happens around the Mets.

by JoeBighead on Jan 1, 2011 6:47 PM EST reply actions

Maybe he goes old school and throws some firecrackers at kids

or sprays some bleach on reporters
or plays poker during a pennant hunt

by FrancoTAU on Jan 1, 2011 10:29 PM EST up reply actions

and still gets paid by the team 20 years later

What Would Matt Szczur Do?

Fact on Villanova Sports

by Hoyadestroya85 on Jan 2, 2011 12:19 AM EST up reply actions

If that happens, I say we trade him for himself.

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 453 posts (10/03/10)

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jan 2, 2011 12:50 AM EST up reply actions

Ok thanks

Now. The big question is, what in the world exactly WAS wrong with Bay?

by chakrabs on Jan 1, 2011 7:07 PM EST reply actions

His swing didn't clear customs?

What's the score, boys?
What did Bugs Bunny do?
What's with the Carrot League baseball today?

by StorkFan on Jan 1, 2011 11:10 PM EST up reply actions

Adjustments he made (consciously or not) because of the park

might have been the reason for his decline, and for some reason it just manifested on the road more, either randomly or for some more technical reason.

by Mount17 on Jan 1, 2011 7:18 PM EST reply actions

i forget where i read it

(i think it was mark simon) but bay had a real hard time seeing the low fastball last season.

What Would Matt Szczur Do?

Fact on Villanova Sports

by Hoyadestroya85 on Jan 1, 2011 8:08 PM EST reply actions

Looking at his Pitch f/x data,

and hopefully I am interpreting it correctly, when it came to fastballs, he took a lot more that were low than he did balls that were in the upper quadrants. At the same time, though, it looks like there were a lot more balls that were in the lower quadrants that were bad pitches, and should have been let go. Doing a very rough count, there were about 40 called strikes that were below the waist, as opposed to 37 that were above it (counting only balls in the actual strike zone; there were a few that were “just a bit outside” that were called as strikes).

http://pitchfx.texasleaguers.com/batter/424726/?pitchers=A&count=AA&pitches=FF&from=4%2F1%2F2010&to=10%2F3%2F2010

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 453 posts (10/03/10)

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jan 2, 2011 12:58 AM EST up reply actions

But Citi Field is a Corona Cavern!

I’m hoping he recovers well and doesn’t become another Ryan Church. By that I mean the Mets trade him for a platooning Jeff Francoeur in Texas.

I think he has a 3.5 WAR season in him to be honest. I’m still leery of what can happen, but I concede that I feel I’m being somewhat conservative in my assessment.

by Five-Tool Tool on Jan 2, 2011 1:53 AM EST reply actions