FIP Explained!

by Eric Simon on Jan 10, 2011 10:43 PM EST

Groundbreaking instructional video from DRaysBay. I always kinda knew that pitchers could scarcely control the luck dragon, but this says it better than I ever could.

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love the recorder

by Pack Bringley on Jan 10, 2011 10:49 PM EST reply actions

one of the best recorder solos ever

dwide schrude would be proud.

HELLO HELLO MR WILPON... BUY THAT MANSION. WE DONT NEED A CONDO.

by kendynamo on Jan 11, 2011 1:28 AM EST up reply actions

Eh. Not so good IMO. Good on animation, but....

Clever, but just fodder for those who will respond with the immediate observation “yeah, but a pitcher who walks no one because everyone is hitting doubles is not very good.” It goes through the obvious problems with ERA (which most 8 year old baseball fans can tell you), but ignores the same with FIP. If it were a minute longer, mentioned the glaring issue with FIP, talked about FIP and ERA each being useful but each being more useful when viewed together, and didn’t just conclude that FIP “better judges talent” it would be a lot more useful for those who don’t already understand FIP.

It's a triumph of number crunching over the human spirit...aaaaaand, it’s about time. -- Play-by-Play Announcer, The Simpsons.

by MookieTheCat on Jan 10, 2011 11:05 PM EST reply actions 3 recs

Well said

The hurdle in falling out of love with ERA isn’t primarily the defense thing. People get that good defense helps pitchers. What they don’t get is the character of the luck dragons that plague ERA. Two such dragons are stranding runners on base and having relatively few batted balls drop in for hits. Neither are pure luck to any extent, but most fans have a very unrealistic view of a pitcher’s control over them.

The video was funny though.

by Pack Bringley on Jan 10, 2011 11:35 PM EST up reply actions

Also, the luck dragon

Is very much a product of the quality of relievers behind you. Assuming that at least a good amount of the time a pitcher is pulled with someone on base, bad relievers can add some meat to an ERA by allowing inherited runners to score. Of course, a pitcher can eliminate this by not letting anyone on or by pitching complete games, but my guess is that anyone who accomplished these two would be great by whatever metric you wanted to use.

It's a triumph of number crunching over the human spirit...aaaaaand, it’s about time. -- Play-by-Play Announcer, The Simpsons.

by MookieTheCat on Jan 10, 2011 11:42 PM EST up reply actions

I agree to an extent

I don’t really think this video is really trying to convert ERA followers or educate people that already know about FIP. I think it’s more a form of entertainment for even the most basic Saberers than an educational tool. In that regard I found it funny (though for full disclosure I’m on my 5th-ish dram of Gentleman Jack which I really can’t recommend to anyone who isn’t already a fan of charcoal mellowing, which I’m assuming Samt P and RA are.)

by Sokojoe on Jan 11, 2011 12:21 AM EST up reply actions

You make a good point

In that regard it is good.

It's a triumph of number crunching over the human spirit...aaaaaand, it’s about time. -- Play-by-Play Announcer, The Simpsons.

by MookieTheCat on Jan 11, 2011 1:02 AM EST up reply actions

Agreed

Obviously people won’t be searching FIP on YouTube, but if they did come across the video they may say that exact same thing. They could’ve even put in a quote from McCracken about FIP and it would’ve been better.
Still entertaining, though

Squeezed to Song and Bendtner and Song and Nasri oh lovely lovely lovely!
-Peter Drury, the one time his commentating has ever been acceptable.

by Aidan Gibson on Jan 11, 2011 7:01 AM EST up reply actions

Here's my thought: this video was meant to get the conversation started.

It was meant for people truly new to sabermetrics, that may not understand the concepts behind of FIP. With that in mind, you want to keep whatever you’re doing simple and short, and you don’t want to overload people with information. You want to start those people asking questions, not necessarily answer all those questions for them right away.

You could make a 20 minute long video, getting into all the nuances of evaluating pitching, but it still wouldn’t be enough to do it justice. However, as a very intro to FIP and DIPS for those new to saber, I think it does a great job. It gets people thinking and even if they then have questions, you’ve already got them past the main hurdles of acknowledging the issues with ERA.

Also, the author is planning on doing more videos that get into the Luck Dragon stats more. So this is just the starting point.

I love Casey Fossum. Now try and take me seriously.

by Steve Slowinski on Jan 11, 2011 8:20 AM EST up reply actions

Good point

I just think that even a short statement like “Now of course people knock FIP because it doesn’t include hits besides home runs, so if FIP and ERA are very different it might be a good idea to check out how many hits the pitcher gives up to see if FIP might not be perfect.” In about 10 seconds you address the problem and suggest a way to deal with it. In any event I look forward to more of these, and hopefully ones that build on earlier lessons.

It's a triumph of number crunching over the human spirit...aaaaaand, it’s about time. -- Play-by-Play Announcer, The Simpsons.

by MookieTheCat on Jan 11, 2011 5:44 PM EST up reply actions