Why are the Mets in trouble??

by jgweiss on Jan 9, 2011 1:06 AM EST

I have to admit, i joined 4 SB Nation blogs just to write this FanPost, because I wanted to say it so bad.

The Mets aren't going to win a division crown next year; there are just too many great pitchers in Philly. They likely wont win a division title, because only one team in the NL wins that. But they have a chance, which is something very few people are giving them. Most important, though, they'll be competitive.

Sandy Alderson came in saying that all along, "we will be competitive in 2011" and nobody believes him. Why not?

Everyone is talking about awful pitching, which the Mets likely have. You have to remember though, they play in Citi Field, which is a great confidence boost for a pitcher. Mets pitchers weren't the reason they were out of it last year; if you are okay with remembering last season, you can remember so many 0-0 and 1-0 and 1-1 and 2-1 games going into the final 3 innings, and you sat there with no confidence in anything changing from the Amazin's perspective. Jeez, Jon Niese threw a one-hitter last year, looking dominant, in Citi Field.

So we look to the offense, the 0 run offense. Is the offense not enough, when healthy, to produce? You can't sit there in front of your computer and tell me that this lineup lacks the talent:

Reyes

Pagan

Beltran

Bay

Wright

Davis

Thole/Paulino

Eamus/2B

The key to this is 2B. Luis Castillo has been a black hole to the Mets lineup for 2 years, and it has made the bottom 1/3 of the lineup an automatic inning, in a game when an inning is precious. A guy like Paulino (hopefully Thole as well) is an average, but plus-side hitter who, more importantly than the positives, does not make your lineup worse, when used properly. Alderson and Terry Collins need to figure out who needs to fall into that 8 slot without hurting the lineup, before they worry about an 8 hitter helping the team.

Which is all they are doing right now. We aren't being lied to, like some people are saying, by the front office, being told that we're going to be competitive without making any moves. Sandy is picking up the guys that we always wish we had when we found ourselves picking Luis Hernandez and Fernando Tatis (post-miracle season) off the bench to strike out in a clutch 8th inning AB. The Jerry Hairston Jr types. These are the players that win championships, when built around great Free Agent players. Though we may not have those guys now, the $50M+ coming off the books next year is waiting.

The biggest issue the team isnt addressing personnel-wise is the bullpen. The bullpen is a mess right now, and holds nobody that I trust in any late inning. I understand that it isnt easy to build a great bullpen, but signing Will Ohman before he was signed would have helped. A Joe Beimel-type is needed if we want to develop our own Luke Gregerson. Feliciano was the only guy I trusted to not give up a game-tying run, and he's in the Bronx now. I can forgive the FO for being coy on this; you can build a bullpen every year...the necessary arms are on the market nearly every year.

I love what's going on with the Mets right now, especially the Terry Collins signing. A two-year deal for Collins means that the baseball operations juggernaut of Alderson, Riccardi and DePodesta are not focusing on the X's and O's of baseball. As bad as that sounds, at least they can't overanalyze, like some Jerry Manuel's did. Instead, they're looking at the health of the organization and the team, and the philosophy behind Mets baseball. A guy like Terry Collins is the right man to take this team from Spring Training to September/October, instilling a consistant message throughout. I just hope that they don't turn over as much personnel as I think they will, because a big-time free agent will have an easier time learning to play Mets baseball if 5 or 6/8 starters, 3/4 of the bench and half the pitching staff is already onboard.

Listen guys....of my 6 teams, 5 have fired their head coach since baseball season ended (Gary Williams is the sole survivor). I have no clue where some of my teams are headed in the future, but I can say with confidence, despite the superior talent of my Vikings, I'm most confident in the Mets plans for the future, and feel that for the first time in a while, my favorite team is in good hands. Thanks for reading.

Lets Go Mets baby, Lets Go Mets.

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It's the same team we put out last year

with worse pitching. And that team sucked. This team will suck too, unless many people have bounce back or breakout seasons. When you are counting on so many people to stay healthy, or play amazingly well, or repeat unlikely success, you can’t feel too comfortable about your position.

Can the Mets be good? Sure, I’ll root for ‘em and watch the games like I’ve done every year. But as is, they have a terrible starting rotation, I’m not sure who we even have in the bullpen, and an injured/consistently inconsistent offense. However much you like Alderson/Depod/JP/Collins, their philosophy means jack shit until they start bringing players into the organization. We will not see those additions this year.

"I only wanted a few things out of life -- a wife, children, to play baseball and to hunt deer." - Turk Wendell

by Rey-O on Jan 9, 2011 3:18 AM EST reply actions

Continued improvement by Jon Niese

and a bounceback by Capuano would probably result in an average rotation

by nerfan on Jan 9, 2011 12:56 PM EST up reply actions

Hee hee!

by Jack Str on Jan 10, 2011 3:35 PM EST up reply actions

But is it really the same team?

You have a healthy Carlos Beltran instead of out machine Jeff Francoeur in RF. You most likely have youth at 2nd base instead of .600 OPS Luis Castillo. You have Ike Davis in his second season instead of half a month of Mike Jacobs at 1B. Josh Thole at C is an improvement over Rod Barajas just based on the fact that he gets on base 35% of the time. And you’ll likely have a healthy Reyes and a Jason Bay who we can hope is over his initial Mets struggles. The additions of Beltran, Thole, the 2Bman and Davis combined with the subtractions of Francoeur, Castillo, Barajas and Jacobs is a big deal for the offense.

The pitching is certainly questionable…however, Pelfrey is a solid pitcher (certainly shouldn’t be your best pitcher but he provides a number of good starts per year), I expect improvement from Niese who had a very quality rookie season. You could think of Dickey as a question mark, but just watching him last season, I think he’s for real. It all depends on his control of the knuckleball…he had impeccable control last season and he hangs onto that, he can repeat. The other two slots are Capuano and probably Chris Young. Both are injury risks but when healthy have been average to above average and if the offense plays to its capabilities, that’s all this team needs. My basis is look at last year when we had Perez and Maine. Are they better than perez and Maine and at this point, I can realistically say yes they are, even if they both get hurt.

Not to mention, look at the 2006 team and look at the starters we sent out. Glavine, an injured Pedro, Trachsel, El Duque, Soler, Bannister, Zambrano, Dave Williams, Lima, Jeremi Gonzalez…these guys were far from world beaters and yet we still won 97 games. I don’t expect 97 wins from this team but to totally write this off as “the same team as 2010” is a little premature. It’s not the same.

Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!

by Steve Schreiber on Jan 9, 2011 1:19 PM EST up reply actions

Meh

Almost every name you threw out there is an injured player or an unknown quantity. Who knows if Beltran is healthy, or that he will play well? Who knows that Reyes is healthy? Or Bay? We don’t have a second basemen, let alone one that we can trust. Capuano is coming off of two Tommy John surgeries. Bucholz has been hurt. Young has been hurt. I don’t think Dickey will be anywhere near as good as they were last year. Pelfrey and Niese are the only two guys we can rely on in the rotation. Our bullpen is non existent.

Like I said, I’ll root for the team and they’ll play the games, but there’s no way that this can be considered a good team. Currently no one in the ’pen, an injured/unproven staff, and a potent offense, if three of the top four players have big bounce back seasons.

"I only wanted a few things out of life -- a wife, children, to play baseball and to hunt deer." - Turk Wendell

by Rey-O on Jan 9, 2011 6:24 PM EST up reply actions

Its not the same team

Just look at the opening day rosters. Of the players who had 2010 seasons below their career average, odds are that most will regress, which is a good thing.

Capuano should be fine. The cause of the injury that led to his second TJ surgery was that he was trying to learn a new type of curve ball. If Capuano avoids needlessly risky behavior, like learning new pitches with an increased risk of injury, the Mets should have a steal.

Our bullpen is hardly “non existent.” That’s absurd. We may all despise K-Rod, but he is a damn good reliever. Parnell was very good last year and will probably improve this year. There is enough depth to string together a bullpen for opening day that will be refined as the season progresses. It won’t be what we want it to be, but to say that we have “no one in the ’pen” flies in the face of reality.

"The Mets are gonna be amazing!" - Casey Stengel

by Russ on Jan 10, 2011 10:27 AM EST up reply actions

This...

I’m not saying it’s a championship level team. On January 10th 2011, it isn’t. But it is not an awful team (not with that offense) and it is certainly different from last year. Just look at the Opening Day roster in 2010 and you can see the differences…and yes, DL’d players like Beltran count. He didn’t play the first half of the season. He wasn’t there. He’s a much better player than Francoeur just by showing up to the ballpark.

Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!

by Steve Schreiber on Jan 10, 2011 12:02 PM EST up reply actions

Optimism rules!

but is slightly dissapointing at the end of the season.

Then it rules again when you think about the next year.

Then it sucks.

And so on and so on.

John Franco (shoulda been) HOF 2011

by JoeBighead on Jan 9, 2011 8:32 AM EST reply actions

If we going into next season

not expecting to do all that well then two things could happen:
A) We don’t do well…ah well, we’re rebuilding with excess money coming off the books.
2) We do well…surprise! YAAAAAAAY!

…there could be other options, but those two are the black and white.

"..."

by Thaddeus Ballpheasant on Jan 9, 2011 6:58 PM EST reply actions 1 recs

To win the wild card we likely need 90 wins.

This is not a 90 win team. Trying to get to 90 wins in a single offseason would be foolish. We might be contenders in that we show up in the graphics that SNY and ESPN show come June and August but that’s about it. That said, the improvement in process is undeniable. Paulino, Emaus, Capuano, Buchholz, and Carasco are the type of cheap, under the radar signings that good teams need. If Omar we still in charge would have gotten half the talent for twice the money.

Save Jenrry Mejia!

by Ogre39666 on Jan 9, 2011 9:23 PM EST reply actions

Omar would likely be throwing a 2 year/12 million dollar deal at Freddy Garcia

right now, who in all honesty likely is equal to or worse than Capuano. Garcia is just a name at this point and a shell of the guy who was traded for Randy Johnson 10+ years ago.

Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!

by Steve Schreiber on Jan 10, 2011 12:05 PM EST up reply actions

I think you may guys may be under estimating how bad

some of the players on are team were last year. Excluding pitcher hitting and anybody who played in less the 20 games the players on are team who were worth negative value totals -4.5 WAR. Thats basically 5 wins better if we were to start replacement players. Then if we replace Frency with Beltran that is at least a 2 WAR improvement from last year. So even without any improvements by Bay, Reyes, Davis, Beltran, Wright this team should be 7 games better then last year. Just to list a few Perez -1.1 WAR, Nieve -1 WAR, Cora -.5 WAR. That’s almost three wins lost on three players that is terrible.

by Delgado on Jan 10, 2011 6:07 PM EST reply actions