The State of the Mets' 2012 Budget

Its clearer every day that paying him 18m for 5+years is not a good idea for the longterm

Big ticket players contracts are often partially insured, although I have no idea if the amounts are published. It is likely that several million of Santana’s contract last year was covered by insurance. If he is unable to play next (not bad, only if he physically cannot pitch) they’ll get some insurance money to help pay for another injury gamble like Capuano or Young.
If Jason Bay had been out all year with that concussion, we could have had Delmon Young.

If Reyes signs elsewhere, that would set the Mets back three years. Instead of contending in 2013 or 2014, they’d have to wait for their low minor leaguers AND the ones behind them to reach the majors.

You need six plus bats to have a championship caliber NL lineup. The four corners are the easy ones. The Mets had Beltran in CF and Reyes at SS. Without either one, where are the plus bats coming from?

Under those circumstances, I could see the Mets dumping DW just to save money, along with Bay and Santana if they show enough to have some team willing to take PART of their salary in a trade for virtually nothing. Just get the payroll as low as it will go, to survive a few lean years with lower attendance.

Hopefully he is outright cut during the offseason, he’s done.

please correct.

At least this winter, there is more major league ready depth already on the roster than there was last winter or even two years ago. Pretty much the entire bench can take care of itself if Reyes is re-signed. With Tejada / Murphy at 2b (and the other one on the bench), that leaves 4 bench spots open for the backup C, Evans as 1b-LF and PH vs. L off the bench, Turner as backup IF, Pridie as backup OF / PR. Murphy serving as a PH vs. R deluxe when he´s not starting.
Essentially, the Mets need to figure out whether to keep Pelfrey & Pagan at their projected salary. I´d say keep them – but also would be very much open eventually trading them.
Also, I´d really think about contacting the White Sox for a Jason Bay for Alex Rios deal straight up with no salary difference being made up. Bay (16 mio in each 2012 and 2013, plus 3 mio buyout or vest) could bounce back some in the AL while Rios (12 mio in each 2012, 2013 and 2014) plays better defense and could also play RF while shifts Duda to LF or CF if Pagan is non-tendered.
While it´s certainly a good question how much bounceback potential Rios has, fact is he´s a top athlete and at age 30, may benefit from a fresh start.
Most of all, I´d rather have Rios and an extra 4 mio $ to spend in each 2012 and 2013 and no worry about Bay´s vest and option while paying Rios 12 mio in a year when there´s far more flexibility again in 2014.

thank you Omar

They have to let Reyes go and trade Wright and get some return for him in the form of prospects or pitching.

Unless they can get Reyes to sign for 5/75, which seems incredibly unlikely.

The Bay contract is just awful. At least with Santana you get a A starter when he’s healthy.

As for FA fortunately for the Mets there seem to be a lot of quality pitchers that may be available at low prices. Case in point: Brad Penny (put him in the bullpen); Javier Vazquez, Jon Garland…some high risk but possibly cheap options available.

If Murphy and Ike Davis can stay healthy this team could surprise some people. It’s already much, much younger than it was last year without Beltran and other players.