AAOP: Schwinden Soup for the Soul
by sagecoll on Oct 2, 2011 8:12 PM EDT
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It's that time of year again. The suppressed hope wrapped in a blanket of cynicism and dread. But hey, we're the Mets. so you signed up for this.
My AAOP centers on a couple of ideas
1) I love Jose Reyes, but I'm not paying him 5-6 years 20-22 million/year. During his Mets career he's been worth roughly 130 million dollars. He's not getting better...so I just can't commit to that. That being said, if the best offer he gets is around 4-5 years of 18 million/year. I'll take him for that. But that's just being unrealistic in my mind.
2) Jason Bay sucks, and the old statement that "we're paying him, so we're playing him" is BS.( I hated him BEFORE we signed him ) Giving him AB's hurts this team. That being said, we can't afford to release him. Instead, I think he should just hit against Lefties. His numbers are much better against LHP. So signing an OF who can hit RHP and also have positional flexibility in case of injuries is a necessity.
3) Need another Starter. The Hope for Pelfrey is over (I want him untendered). Cap was solid. Let's bring him back. I like Paul Maholm. With Pittsburgh having to pick between bringing Cedeno, Doumit, and Maholm back, Maholm may go. Also, his injury to end last season will bring down his asking price. Overall, he's a solid 2+ WAR/Year pitcher under 30. I don't think I need to prove his worth as a 3-4 starter in our rotation.
4) Bring in Joe Nathan. His value is down. NL hitters aren't familiar with him. I'll give him a chance considering his velocity drop wasn't major.
5) Bring in a good fielding backup SS purely as a late inning fielding replacement, and occasional 8 hitter.
Additions:
1) David Dejesus- 2 years 10 mil with club option for 3rd.
2) Paul Maholm - 3 years 14.5 mil with club option for 4th
3) Joe Nathan - 1 year 6 mil (with incentive of 35 saves taking it to 10 mil) with club option worth 10 mil for 2012
4) Jack Wilson - 1 year 1 mil.
Losses:
1) Jose Reyes
2) Mike Pelfrey
3) Ryoto Igarashi
4) Taylor Buchholtz
7) Manny Acosta
C- Josh Thole -1 WAR- 450k
1B - Ike Davis - 4 WAR - 450k
2B- Daniel Murphy - 2.5 WAR -450k
SS- Ruben Tejada - 2 WAR - 450k
3B- David Wright - 3 WAR - 15.25 mil
LF- Jason Bay/David Dejesus - 1 WAR/2 WAR - 18.1 mil/ 5 mil
CF- Angel Pagan - 2 WAR - 5 mil
RF- Lucas Duda 2 WAR - 450k
B- Ronny Paulino - .5 WAR - 1.8 mil
B- Nick Evans - .2 WAR -450k
B- Justin Turner - .5 WAR - 450k
B- Jack Wilson - .1 WAR - 1 mil
SP- Johan Santana - 3 WAR -24 mil
SP- Jonathan Niese - 2 WAR - 450k
SP- Paul Maholm - 2 WAR - 5 mil
SP- RA Dickey - 2 WAR - 4.75 mil
SP- Chris Capuano - 1 WAR- 5 mil
LR- Dillon Gee - 0.3 WAR- 450k
MR - Tim Byrdak - 0.2 WAR - 1.2 mil
MR - D.J. Carrasco - .2 WAR - 1.2 mil
MR- Chris Schwinden - .2 WAR - 450k
MR - Daniel Herrera - .2 WAR - 450k
SU - Bobby Parnell - .5 WAR - 450k
CL- Joe Nathan - 1.5 WAR - 6 mil
If you think my dollar values are slightly short for Free Agents, No big deal. The payroll for this roster is 96.8, so add on where you're unsatisfied.
My plan attempts to do 4 things: 1) Minimize Jason Bay plate appearances 2) Improve Starting Pitching 3) Get a closer 4) Minimize future large problem contracts to make room for guys like Kirk, Havens, Flores, Mejia, Harvey, Wheeler, Familia, etc.
Whatcha think?
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not totally sold on Dejesus
not totally against it either
if the fences come in they have to stay with Bay, it may be what he needed. it seems hard to believe but maybe he picks up his game.
if the fences stay, maybe play him on the road. Dejesus can play home games…it would be the first ever home/road platoon
I like Maholm alot, and Nathan at the right price.
Wilson not so much
Any task BIG or small, Do it well or not at all
I guess I can agree with that
Not high on Wilson either honestly. But he can field, and he’s cheap. The risk is nothing. We did the same with Hu and scrapped him.
wow I actually forgot we ever had Hu
Any task BIG or small, Do it well or not at all
by Rickfansince76 on Oct 2, 2011 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Turner and Thole
I think both these guys showed some good ABs throughout the season, especially with RISP. They are rokies, and may gain 15-20 points on their AVG next season
Any task BIG or small, Do it well or not at all
Not that I don't think you did a good job
because most of this is very reasonable, but a Mets lineup with no Reyes and David Dejesus starting is quite depressing.
2012 National League Wild Card Champion New York Mets
You're going to give 10 Mil to a closer? Didn't we just go down this road?
And people do know that it’s not AAOP season just yet, right?
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
well.
I’m not, I’m giving 6 mil to a closer. and 10 mil if he does his well. And it’s for 1 year….Still have a problem?
.
1 year 6 mil (with incentive of 35 saves taking it to 10 mil) with club option worth 10 mil for 2012
I realize there are incentives but even if he reaches them (they’d have to either appearances or games finished, by the way, not saves) he’d have to be worth 2.5 WAR to be worth the money. Basically he’d have to be Rivera to be worth it (or go back to pre-surgery Nathan) and he won’t be. Yes, I still have a problem with it. Hell, even a base salary of $6M to a guy who is coming off a replacement level season is too much. I have no problem with Nathan because he’s a buy-low candidate with a great history of performance. Giving him that contract negates the buy-low part.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
Also, you can't center an option around saves.
It would have to be based on games finished, like Rodriguez’ was.
"And that's why anybody who invested with Lenny Dykstra should really call that number. Lawyers are standing by."
by BobbyV_Incognito on Oct 3, 2011 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions
That's just too much money for a position that shouldn't even exist
__________________________________________________
"He who gets the best players usually wins" - Bobby Bowden
Agree to disagree
Mets had major issues getting out Inherited runners after the trade deadline last year. He’s the best available in my mind for the money…If you want to pay him 3-4 mil, go ahead. I just think he’ll get more elsewhere. Also, it’s a 1 year deal.
not yet...but i am excited for my first AAOP
"Anybody with ability can play in the big leagues. But to be able to trick people year in and year out the way I did, I think that was a much greater feat." -Bob Uecker
"Who is the girl in the dugout, with the long hair? What's going on here? You have got to be kidding me. Only player personnel in the dugout. I won't say that women belong in the kitchen, but they don't belong in the dugout." -Kieth Hernandez
Yeah, technically, this is cheating!
In a roundabout way, not that it matters, but
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Oct 2, 2011 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, they're also tipping their hands
and giving away any creative ideas they might’ve had.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
Yeah, I already realized that, and stopped giving away my ideas!
lol
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Oct 2, 2011 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Honestly
he’s kind of just the odd man out. Is he eligible to be sent down? If so, I’ll do that then. If not, he’d be DFA’ed whenever I brought someone else up…
So the guy who pitched the best out of the bullpen this past season
is the odd man out?
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
Why is Dillon Gee in the bullpen?
He takes a very long time to warm up.
__________________________________________________
"He who gets the best players usually wins" - Bobby Bowden
Because
He’s not good enough for the rotation. If you prefer him in AAA that’s the other option. Also he’s a LR, those guys typically have an inning to warm up…
He's not good enough to be in the bullpen
He strikes out too few and walks too many. Either have him start here or in the minors.
Gee needs more than an inning or two to warmup
__________________________________________________
"He who gets the best players usually wins" - Bobby Bowden
I believe it has to do with the partial labrum tear he suffered in 2009
in his pitching shoulder. He rehabbed it and he can pitch with it (many pitchers do, apparently) but it takes a lot longer for him to get loose.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
You might know me as mistermet.
by Steve Schreiber on Oct 3, 2011 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Sorry, but this is bad for so a few reasons
1) Letting Reyes walk. This is an opinion thing, but…
2) David DeJesus is a nice addition, but not at that price and amount of playing time (platooning with Bay). LF is basically getting $23 million dollars allocated to it (assuming DeJesus is getting an even $5 million over two years). For a fraction of that $5 million, you could get, say, Nate McClouth to do the same thing, about as good.
3) Paul Maholm is going to cost a lot more than that. He’s already making more than that with arbitration increases, and even though he was injured and had his season cut short, he is coming off his best season, and it’s a slim market for starting pitchers out there this season.
4) Acosta is gone. He’s basically our best all-around relief pitcher at this juncture (Parnell’s stock is down, Acosta’s is up).
5) Gee and Schwinden are both being used, and in the bullpen. Neither seem suited for the bullpen, with their generally low K/9 rate. Plus, when Santana invariably goes down, they’ll need to be stretched out, presumably, if they’re pitching in short spurts out of the bullpen for however long. A throw-away guy like Dale Thayer can do the same job (maybe even better) than Schwinden, and keeps him (and Gee) in AAA, where they can be called on in a moment.
6) That starting rotation is a sneeze away from disaster. Santana, Niese, Maholm, and Capuano are all injury risks to varying degrees. Dickey is the only one who has thrown 200+ innings in 2011, and him and Santana are the only ones sniffing 200 innings in 2010 or 2011.
7) There’s no outfield depth on the bench outside of Evans, who can play the OF in a pinch (somewhat poorly). DeJesus will be on the bench on some days, and Bay on others, but…
8) For half of what you pay Jack Wilson, you can get better offense and defense out of Ruben Tejada. He’s in the organization, and if SS is open, you might as well use him.
9) Six million to Joe Nathan right off the bat is way, way, way too much- and the $10 vest after the fact is overkill. He’s old, his peripherals are all down, he’s coming off of injury, and put up bad numbers even with a low BABIP- he’s had everything wrong with him! For less money, you could sign a better guy. If you’re willing to give up $10 million in theory, you might as well go after Heath Bell.
10) I really can’t think of 10, but if I do…
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Oct 2, 2011 11:40 PM EDT reply actions
Not to be rude about it
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Oct 2, 2011 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Number 10
You give away Mike Pelfrey by non-tendering him. Trade him for a bag of balls (he has more value than that in actuality, but…) if you must be rid of him. With that rotation, getting rid of the only consistent guy to pitch a lot of innings- not a good idea. If you don’t want him in the starting rotation, switch him with Gee, and have him work out of the bullpen or something- he’s not suited for bullpen work like the others, but…Again, you don’t just give away commodities with value
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Oct 2, 2011 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I see what you did there
1) Not letting Reyes walk, taking the 2 draft picks and keeping the cash.
2) I don’t think that’s the greatest comparison for Dejesus
(using 3 year averages: 09-11)
Dejesus: wOBA: .336 UZR: 8.67 WAR: 2.83
Mclouth: wOBA: .313 UZR: -8.36 WAR: 0.8
Dejesus is also able to play CF and RF. He’s been worth an average of 12.3 mil over the past 3 seasons. And frankly, as a manager I’d mostly use Bay against LHP. The fact that we’re paying 23 mil for “LF” is absurd I agree. But it’s way more absurd to pay 18 mil for LF and give Jason Bay 500 PA’s.
3) As I said, tack on a few mil dollars if you don’t agree with the cost (I have 15 mil annually until I reach Sandy’s limit). I said 5 mil, the Pirates aren’t sure they’re going to take him for 9.75 mil. You’re telling me he’s signing for 9+ mil annually? I’ll stretch it to 8 mil no problem. He’s been worth at least that for the past 4 years…
4) Indicated in previous response. I will gladly replace Schwinden for Acosta Literally just had Schwinden on the roster for the sake of the post title.
5) I guess? I have Gee listed as a long reliever as would be Schwinden, I don’t really think I’d use them for “short spurts” as you say. And we’re talking about spot starts here…But if we’re going to nit-pick. I’ll give you that one.
6) Well this co-insides with point 5 now. You can’t really do anything about Dickey, Niese, or Santana. I’ll take Capuano over Pelfrey, and Maholm has thrown 160IP 6 straight years.
Btw, using a different threshold. All of those pitchers (minus Santana obviously), threw at least 150IP last year.
7) Haha, I can’t tell if you realized what you were saying was wrong in the 2nd sentence or not. The Mets are guaranteed to have 2 OF’s on the bench every night assuming good health. If injury comes, we have players in AAA. Not a concern of mine…
8) Jack Wilson’s a bench player. We have no capable backup for Ruben assuming Reyes is gone. Literally just used for the occasional day off. Also, Wilson defense is better for now…And you’re paying him less than DJ Carrasco….
9) As far as closers go: I like him more than Francisco, Dotel, League, Frasor, Rauch, Capps and Broxton. And I think Madsen, Papelbon & Bell are out of our price range.
I think the money I gave him is fair. If you think he deserves less. Give him less..My payroll is pretty flexible. If you think he’ll sign for less…eh I’d take a chance on him. It’s the same contract Trevor Hoffman signed with the Brewers for in 09’.
10. If I can trade him I will! That’s going to be tough when I’m paying a guy 5 mil who was worth 3 mil last year and has no potential for improvement in this organization.
I just don’t think he’s worth the money. I’m not giving him away. I’m just not paying him. Or if some team inquires about him. I’ll deal him.
It’s one thing to eat innings, It’s another to softly chew and occasionally choke on innings.
Rebuttals
2) Compare their career platoon splits against righties. DeJesus is the better hitter, overall and against righties. But, McClouth is, let’s say, 3/4 as good as him. And, he’d cost half (or more) as much as DeJesus would. So, with DeJesus, you’d be getting .292/.368/.447 at $5 million (for 2-3 years) and with McClouth, you’d be getting .257/.349/.452 for $1.5 million. It’s a better value (factoring in defensive prowess as well).
5) By definition, bullpen pitchers pitch in short spurts. If you want to reserve Gee or Schwinden for spot starts, you might as well keep them in AAA where they can get regular work, and so we can insert in the bullpen two relievers who will be able to pitch whenever, as necessary.
6) They’ve thrown 160 IP. That’s fine- it leaves them 40 IP under 200 (with the “average” ML starter throwing ~200 IP). Multiply that by four, and there’s 160 IP that’s going to be made up somewhere in the bullpen, or by spot starters, or whoever. Get the point?
7) Two OFs on the bench- one legit in Bay/DeJesus, and the other not, in Evans- is not a good thing. Especially when you consider in-game pinch hitting, defensive substitutions, injuries…
8) I apologize, and read it wrong- I thought you had him starting over Tejada. Using him as a bench guy is fine.
9) If you’re going to be handing Nathan- someone who is old, has peripherals that are down, is coming off of Tommy John surgery and may never be the effective Joe Nathan ever again- up to $10 million dollars if the incentives kick in, you might as well go after Bell, a closer who will cost around the same amount (maybe another million or three, and another guaranteed year or two)- a top talent.
10) You act as if Pelfrey is a baseball leper. The Rockies would have killed for a pitcher who could have thrown 200 innings, even with ‘eh’ production.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Oct 3, 2011 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Aight you asked for it
2) I think you should’ve done 3 year weighted averages here as opposed to career numbers on the platoons. If you did that, you would’ve seen that from 09-11 (using a 3:2:1 scale)
Dejesus has a 292/369/450 triple slash against RHP oh and by the way. his 2011 season featured a BABIP of 274, well below his career 316 average
Mclouth has a 238/353/385 triple slash against RHP oh and by the way, his 2011 featured a BABIP of 270, right in line with his career average of 276.
Combine that with a +8 UZR to a -8 UZR and Dejesus is actually close to 300% better than Mclouth, not 25% as you said….This is probably the most no-brainer of my transactions…
5) Yeah I guess, I’ll give you this one. This is the back of my bullpen, whoever I put in there is getting league minimum salary and can be sent down and brought up at any time. If we’re going to quibble whether someone like Schwinden or Thayer will be on the roster, I’ll concede. Honestly I would prefer Gee or Schwinden don’t get starts until someone ends up on the DL.
6) Yup got it!
40= Gee
40= Schwinden
40=Harvey
20=Mchugh
20= ?
That should cover it…
7) Eh it’s not ideal, But 2 OF’s on a bench of 5-6 is right about average, considering 1 is a catcher and 1 is a MI. If any injury occurs, I’d have Kirk up (if he’s healthy)
8) I was going to say….
9) You want to talk about peripherals and bring up Heath Bell who dropped his K/9 to 7.32 (btw, the lowest he posted with the METS was 8.29…much less after he left)
and also managed to boost his HR rate. I’m not giving 8+ mil guaranteed for multiple years to ANYONE in my bullpen…The contract I outlined is low risk, and I think the fact that he’s switching leagues, combined with more rehab time will lead to a comeback. Also, he didn’t lose much of any velocity…
10) I’m fine with “eh” production if I’m paying you like a 5th starter…not like a 3rd…regardless of IP…
Low risk? $6M to a reliever who has yet to prove he can pitch successfully after surgery is not low-risk.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
by Ogre39666 on Oct 3, 2011 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
agreed with sagecoll
nathan on a short term deal minimizes risk even if we have to overpay for a year. He pitched better in the second half, putting up a 2.32 xFIP in August/September. Also tommy john is a well documented injury which takes time to come back from – 2 years seems optimal. Of the guys who will take 1 year deals he’s probably the best and safest (which isn’t saying a lot.) 6M with up to 4 in incentives sounds about right.
by robotoverlord on Oct 3, 2011 8:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Giving him that contact takes a buy-low candidate
and makes him anything but.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
who said anything about buy low?
that seems like market value for Nathan, I just said it limits exposure to risk. If you want to argue that Broxton is a better buy low guy, that’s fine, but he’s a lot riskier.
by robotoverlord on Oct 3, 2011 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions
Seriously, why do we have to sign a closer?
I don’t want either of these guys.
Let’s spend 8+ million on multiple pieces that will increase depth, so, you know, no more Miguel Batista. Or we can give some of it to Reyes and still get more rather than one overpriced, injury-risk “closer.”
Why are you willing to spend 34 million per year on Maholm, DeJesus and Nathan but not 20 on Reyes? Those three guys don’t get us closer to a champtionship than Reyes+ others.
Kicking knowledge in the face.
8 mil
To a number 3 starter with 2+ WAR average per year so, you know, no more Miguel Batista – Check.
The Reyes thing has nothing to do with 2012, and everything to do with 2016 where you’d be paying him 20 mil still…
Reyes is fine in the short term. Not the long term. Nuff said.
Besides the fact
that you’re expecting Johan to provide 3 WAR this season, you’re also expecting that he, Maholm (who is also coming off an injury) and Capuano will be healthy all season. Are the backup plans Gee and Carrasco? Then who, Batista? This doesn’t do much for depth if you’re getting rid of Pelf.
What’s with “Nuff said?” Do you think your opinion is infallible? I predict Reyes will be fine in the long term. Nuff said.
Kicking knowledge in the face.
I agree with you, i was just replying to ogre39666
who supported signing broxton to a 1 year deal in a previous post.
by robotoverlord on Oct 4, 2011 1:05 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm fine with Broxton and Nathan
because they are buy-low candidates – guys who have a legit shot at getting back to their past level of high-level production but aren’t hot commodities. Giving them $6M in guaranteed contracts however, negates the buy-low part and makes them much riskier acquisitions. In the comment I believe you are talking about were I supported signing Broxton, I specifically said $6M is too much and advocated for an incentive laden deal starting with a base-salary of $1M.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
Yeah, I just disagree with you that
Nathan is going to take a 1M deal. Broxton might, but I doubt that too. these two guys are not created equal. Agree to disagree I suppose.
by robotoverlord on Oct 4, 2011 1:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, $1M is probably a bit too low. $2M is a bit more realistic (with incentives based on appearances).
Why would Nathan agree to it? Because 1) he’d be in the closer role and 2) a 1-year deal allows him to re-establish himself as a top-notch, elite closer and get a big contract in free agency for 2013.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
I think you're underestimating the silliness of GM's
when it comes to closers. I mean kevin gregg got a 2 year 10M deal last year. Plus Broxton and Nathan are big names, which really amps up the price tag. I just think Nathan will get a 6-8M dollar deal somewhere probably 2 years, and Broxton will get something like 3-4M.
by robotoverlord on Oct 4, 2011 1:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Possibly
but there are a lot of brighter and shinier names out there in FA this year like Papelbon, Bell, Krod, Capps, Madson, Valverde, and even Lidge.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
True
except, I’d slot Nathan above Capps, and a tick above Lidge going into this off season.
Leaving him the 6th best reliever in baseball this free agency.
Those top 5 will demand more money and more years. I think all of them will get 8+/year deals for multiple years.
Ideally I’d go after Madson, I think he’s the best bang/buck out of the bunch, but I think he’ll resign with Philly.
8 years for a closer?
No way; no GM is that stupid.
"And that's why anybody who invested with Lenny Dykstra should really call that number. Lawyers are standing by."
by BobbyV_Incognito on Oct 4, 2011 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Sagecoll did and you agreed with him.
And it doesn’t really even matter if you or sagecoll did because Nathan is a buy-low candidate whether or not you said he is.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
As I said
“As far as closers go: I like him more than Francisco, Dotel, League, Frasor, Rauch, Capps and Broxton. And I think Madsen, Papelbon & Bell are out of our price range. "
I think he’s less of a risk to fail as a closer than Dotel, League, or any of those guys in the first part.
The phrase “Is 6 mil low risk?” is relative to the money you have to spend. My payroll with this model is around 100 mil. We have more money than that…It’s for 1 year. 2 if we want.
Does signing him to that contract prohibit us from signing anyone else next year? No
I don’t love the idea of spending money for a closer. But I don’t think anyone within the organization can fill that role in 2012 as of now. A one year contract to someone with a good track record, paying the similar money to what Pagan or Pelfrey would make with incentives for performance, is fine by me.
Buying low implies purchasing something while it's value is low
what I’m saying is that Nathan is probably worth around 3-4M WAR guaranteed right now. I think you can reasonably make that argument based on the fact that tommy john pitchers usually make a full recovery after about 18 months. He had surgery in March of 2010, and his last month or so of the season shows promise. Other teams know this, and his 2WARish average in the past puts him in line for about 12M on the open market. Of course, there’s additional risk, but given the fact that his floor is 0WAR, replacement level, I would say roughly 8M guaranteed on a 1 year deal, in which we effectively buy his acceptance of a 1 year deal is fine. Sagecoll said 6M with incentives to 10M. Am I lobbying this? Not really, but the dollar figure seems reasonable.
by robotoverlord on Oct 4, 2011 1:17 AM EDT up reply actions
jeez i shouldnt post right before bed
*its value
*he’s probably worth something like 3-4M WAR right now
by robotoverlord on Oct 4, 2011 1:20 AM EDT up reply actions
83 wins?
Your goal next year is to win 83 games? I am not saying each of the moves listed doesn’t make sense individually. The problem with not paying Reyes is that there really are only a few other free agents worth considering: Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder and CJ Wilson. Two play a position we hope to fill well and cheaply. CJ Wilson? No thanks. You say you don’t want to pay Reyes as if the money is coming out of your wallet. You’ve got the Mets’ payroll at under $100mil. Sandy has said he’d go as high at $120mil. How do you get from $100mil to $120mil? If only there was a way…
If he'd
Sign a 1 year contract I’d totally agree with you. But realistically we’re talking 5-6 years….No thank you.
Why is there a need to commit big long term money to a free agent this year again?
Because Reyes is an elite shortstop
It is highly unlikely that the Mets will get the opportunity to produce 5+ fWAR from SS if Reyes is lost any time soon.
__________________________________________________
"He who gets the best players usually wins" - Bobby Bowden
Heh
It’s unlikely Reyes will ever produce 5+ WAR again, now that we’re on that subject.
The only times he has done it were when he was a) In a contract year (I think we can both conclude contract years are to be viewed primarily as outliers)
b) Played in 150+ games. – You think that’s happening again?
You’re right! He’s great, he’s amazing. I love him. But let’s be realistic about him.
Getting 2.5 WAR from SS, and 3 WAR from LF. Is the same as getting 5 WAR from SS and .5 WAR from LF. The former is what I’ve accomplished I believe with this model, and in the process, saved Millions of dollars to be used on SP next year.
That's pure speculation, and you're wrong
He produced 6.2 fWAR this year in 126 games, so he has produced more than 5 fWAR without playing 150+ games. As for the contract year thing, that is pure B.S. It has been repeatedly debunked.
__________________________________________________
"He who gets the best players usually wins" - Bobby Bowden
by Russ on Oct 3, 2011 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
eh
agree to disagree…It is speculation. But hey, so was the Jason Bay signing. And I think I got that one right (see link in initial post)
Also,
it’s speculation while accounting for player history and similar player development. You’re making this sound like I’m throwing my hands up here haha.
We’re considering paying him til he’s 35, Player regression starts right about now at 29.
His last 3 seasons have featured 36GP, 133GP and 126GP.. Those numbers simply won’t increase, given his injury history and natural aging.
This means he’ll have to perform comparable to this season for the next 6 years to be worth 120 mil.
I don’t see that happening. This seems pretty logical…
He produced 6.2 fWAR this year in 126 games
If Reyes’ playing time is better managed (which it wasn’t this year,) he should be able to play 140 games/year, regress, and still produce 5+ fWAR/year.
__________________________________________________
"He who gets the best players usually wins" - Bobby Bowden
Wait
Explain this managing playing time thing to me..
Reyes played every single day until he got injured
The only exception was the three days that he took off for bereavement leave. Many athletes, just like anyone else, need an occasional day off to let the body rest and recover. Reyes’ propensity for minor hamstring injuries can be mitigated by not playing him every single day. Give him 2-3 days off a month, and it will be more likely that he’ll get through a season without a stint on the DL.
__________________________________________________
"He who gets the best players usually wins" - Bobby Bowden
by Russ on Oct 4, 2011 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
We'll see
Next year…Many in the past have attributed his injuries to unorthodox running mechanics. You may be right with this. But in the same way I predict his ability will decrease with age, you think he won’t get injured with a day off once a week: It’s speculation…This will ultimately end in a stalemate. And we’ll see next year.
I agree with this.
In theory, more rest should help Reyes but as he ages, he just may be more susceptible to injury. It’s not something that’s going to turn me away from signing him, personally (I’d take the risk on Reyes because of his talent and the fact that he’s a homegrown Met) but it’s something to consider.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
You might know me as mistermet.
by Steve Schreiber on Oct 4, 2011 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Rickey Henderson had recurring hamstring problems.
So since we’re just speculating here, Reyes could play until he’s 44, or he could flame out. Whatever.
Also, it’s anti-sabr, but the contract should be worth it in merchandise and attendance alone. I have nothing but speculation to base this off of, but I’m pretty sure those numbers will decrease next season if Reyes isn’t resigned.
Kicking knowledge in the face.
Well then
I’m hoping that he follows that career track. I’d love to watch Jose play until he’s 44 (or at least into his 30’s in a Mets uniform).
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
You might know me as mistermet.
by Steve Schreiber on Oct 4, 2011 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Rickey did eventually adopt a stretching regimen that pretty much ended those problems.
"And that's why anybody who invested with Lenny Dykstra should really call that number. Lawyers are standing by."
by BobbyV_Incognito on Oct 4, 2011 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Heh
In response to that 2nd part. The thing that will put people in the seats is wins, that’s pretty independent of Reyes’ presence.
Also if everyone already has a Reyes jersey, they don’t need to buy another one do they (he’s on the same team). =Doesn’t help merchandise.
What does help merchandise is new players…
Agreed that what will bring people to the ball park is wins
but Reyes helps much more with that than anything you’ve done here.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
How can you agree to disagree on facts.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
by Ogre39666 on Oct 3, 2011 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
The idea
that performance is improves relative career averages in a contract year is a myth.
The idea that performance falls off after signing a long term deal happens pretty often
See:
Jayson Werth
Carl Crawford
Adam Dunn
Alfonso Soriano
Vernon Wells
Barry Zito
You get the picture.
I wasn’t stating he performed above his caliber in 2011. I believe that his performance will decrease after 2013 because of age and injury history. This sort of bell curve is normal in baseball.
difference is
all those guys signed big contracts with new teams. The added pressure of a gazillion dollar contract going to a new team is often too much for players. I don’t think Reyes has anything to prove to Mets fans except that he can stay on the field.
What were their ages when they signed those deals?
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
by Ogre39666 on Oct 4, 2011 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Wow way to make a worse team than this year
Not only are you letting the team’s best position player go, but the starting pitching would only be marginally better, and the bullpen looks way way waaayyyyy worse. For the contract you threw out for Nathan you could get two or three younger or higher upside relivers and send some of those other guys like schwinden, gee, carrasco, or herrera down to AAA. Even with less injuries than we had this year, this team would struggle to have a better record.
by crazycarLUXC on Oct 3, 2011 3:43 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
The phrase
“high upside reliever” is kinda puzzling, A lot of relievers are pitchers without the stamina or pitch variety for starting… On that note…Who comes to mind?
Also, Bullpen this year:
Isringhausen
Parnell
Beato
Acosta
Byrdak
Carrasco
Igarashi
Herrera
Byrdak and Carrasco are under major league contract. They’re not being moved. Dropped Igarashi, Sent Beato down for now. Replaced Isringhausen with Nathan, who I believe will bounce back. (NL hitters don’t know him, he’s had awhile to recover, and he didn’t have a major velocity drop last year).
Any prospect relievers will have to be traded for…Who would you like to realistically deal?
Byrdak will be back next year but
I kind of doubt Carrasco is, unless he comes to camp and his fastball is back to averaging low 90’s. He just can’t survive where he was in 2011 and he’s only making 1.2M…we’ve seen Sandy dump a lot more than that.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
You might know me as mistermet.
by Steve Schreiber on Oct 3, 2011 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I guess
that’s true.
Who would you replace him with?
Considering how awful he was
I’d basically replace him with anybody not named Igarashi. His role, as I’m guessing Sandy planned it, was supposed to be rubber armed middle reliever/long reliever and just off the top of my head, I think you can probably find somebody on the free agent scrap heap (maybe a “failed starter” type) to use in middle/long relief to suck up some innings without paying a ton of money for.
I think they’ll keep DJ around, at least into spring training (it’s sort of the Ollie/Castillo argument of "you’re paying them, so you might as well bring them to ST to see what they have) but ultimately he won’t make the cut.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
You might know me as mistermet.
by Steve Schreiber on Oct 3, 2011 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions
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