McShane's AAOP: This Ain't No Picnic
Looking back at it now, I'm still a fan of my first Amazin' Avenue Offseason Plan from last winter, obscure titular reference to Mike Watt included. But that was last year, and the plan wasn't perfect since I included Pat Misch in the rotation over Dillon Gee. Whoops! Hopefully this plan is an improvement upon the last one.
With a cap on the budget at approximately $110 million, bringing back Jose Reyes makes for a rather tough task in filling out the rest of the roster, but I'm going to do it anyways. There are countless reasons to bring Reyes back, and in my world, he's signing to a six-year, $110 million deal, which would be structured as follows.
| Player | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Reyes | 17.0 | 17.5 | 18.5 | 20.0 | 18.5 | 18.5 |
If Alex Rodriguez was open to the idea of a contract that hit a peak in the middle and slightly declined thereafter, I'm thinking Reyes might be open to doing the same. Sure, it's apples and oranges, but Reyes would still be making a pretty great salary in the later years of the deal. Perhaps another team blows him away with way more years and money, but this contract seems good enough to make him stay.
As soon as the ink has dried on the deal, I'd call up the Minnesota Twins and make a deal for Kevin Slowey. They didn't get along this year, and Slowey is younger, cheaper, and slightly better than Mike Pelfrey. I'll send the Twins Mark Cohoon and Armando Rodriguez, two pitchers who may never crack the Mets' roster, and Slowey will make about $3 million in 2012. He's also under team control for 2013 if I want to keep him around another year after this one. The acquisition of Slowey allows me to non-tender Mike Pelfrey, who would probably have cost about $6 millon next year.
With the savings on Pelfrey in hand, I'll go out and sign Javier Vazquez to a one-year, $7.5 million deal with a team option for a second year at $8 million. Perhaps the team option wouldn't inspire Vazquez to sign, but he'd have an idea of what to expect in 2013 if he pitches as well as he's capable of pitching in 2012. With Vazquez and Slowey in the rotation, Dillon Gee returns to Buffalo and will be the first pitcher called upon in the event of an injury.
Other than Pelfrey, I'll tender contracts to all of the arbitration-eligible players: Angel Pagan, Ronny Paulino, Manny Acosta, and Taylor Buchholz. All four will be reasonably compensated for their roles with the team.
In the bullpen, Jonathan Broxton signs to a one-year, $4 million deal with incentives for innings pitched to make it a little bit better of a deal for him. It's hard to believe such a deal would land Broxton, but with the flooded relief pitching market, the deal seems feasible. The rest of the bullpen returns from last year, except D.J. Carrasco is sent to the minors to provide depth. I'm not in love with this bullpen, but I'm making a team on a $110 million budget with several large contracts, and Jose Reyes is still on it. Oh well.
The rest of the position players will also look much like last year, with Daniel Murphy starting at second base and providing excellent offense for the position. I'll bring back Willie Harris for another year at $1 million since he showed an ability to get on base and play the corner outfield positions and even a little bit at second or third base without embarrassing himself. I'd sign Rick Ankiel to a one-year, $1.5 million deal as the fourth outfielder. He's capable of playing center field, which can't be said of anyone else on my bench, and he can hit for power off the bench.
My complete 2012 Opening Day roster:
| Pos. | Player | $ (Millions) |
|---|---|---|
| C | Josh Thole | 0.4 |
| 1B | Ike Davis | 0.4 |
| 2B | Daniel Murphy | 0.4 |
| 3B | David Wright | 15.3 |
| SS | Jose Reyes | 17.0 |
| LF | Jason Bay | 18.1 |
| CF | Angel Pagan | 4.7 |
| RF | Lucas Duda | 0.4 |
| Bench | Rick Ankiel | 1.5 |
| Bench | Justin Turner | 0.4 |
| Bench | Nick Evans | 0.4 |
| Bench | Ronny Paulino | 1.5 |
| Bench | Willie Harris | 1.0 |
| SP | Johan Santana | 24.0 |
| SP | R.A. Dickey | 4.8 |
| SP | Javier Vazquez | 7.5 |
| SP | Jon Niese | 0.5 |
| SP | Kevin Slowey | 3.0 |
| RP | Jonathan Broxton | 4.0 |
| RP | Manny Acosta | 1.0 |
| RP | Taylor Buchholz | 0.9 |
| RP | Tim Byrdak | 1.2 |
| RP | Bobby Parnell | 0.4 |
| RP | Daniel Ray Herrera | 0.4 |
| Minors | D.J. Carrasco | 1.2 |
| Total | 110.3 |
With a salary that's greatly reduced from the 2011 season, this team should still be an improvement. A lot still depends on whether or not Johan Santana is capable of pitching like his old self for a full season, but the offense should still score plenty of runs, and the combination of Santana, Javier Vazquez, and Kevin Slowey should be a significant improvement over Mike Pelfrey, Chris Capuano, and Dillon Gee.
The only guaranteed multi-year deal in the plan is for Jose Reyes, and none of the free agent signings would cost the Mets a future draft pick. Pitching depth at the upper levels of the minor leagues could still be an issue, but there's an outside chance that one of the top pitching prospects in the organization could make his big league debut by the end of the year if necessary. Overall, the team might have a shot at contending, but the future will not have been mortgaged if that effort proves futile.
***
Be sure to read the official rules and make your own AAOP for the contest. Just to be clear, the plans written by Amazin' Avenue writers are not considered part of the contest.
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Vazquez
I don’t think that was official, but it seemed like he was heading that way.
I’m not sure this team competes for a playoff spot. Are you looking to rebuild for next year? Hoping a healthy Santana / Wright / Reyes and Slowey over Pelfrey gets us over the hump? Where’s Dillon Gee? Where’s Ruben Tejada? Tough sledding when a guy 0-8 with a 6.67 ERA is an improvement to the rotation! Certainly he could be had in a trade, I would think, and with a 4.36 xFIP, could prove to be a nice steal.
This aint no party?
This ain`t no party, this ain`t no disco, this ain`t no fooling around
This ain`t no mudd club, or C.B.G.B., I ain`t got time for that now
__________________________________________________________________
Really good kid.A very good player.Not a superstar. #BlameWilponz. Never Forget
by ScottfromPeekskill on Oct 21, 2011 2:03 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
I like this very much except for keeping R.Paulino.
Time to find a competent, if unspectacular catcher to mold Thole and play every couple of days off of the bench.
__________________________________________________________________
Really good kid.A very good player.Not a superstar. #BlameWilponz. Never Forget
by ScottfromPeekskill on Oct 21, 2011 2:16 PM EDT reply actions
It's good for the most part, but I don't like bringing Paulino back
and I’m not a huge fan of Slowey. Yeah his control is phenomenal, but he gets hit way too hard.
There is no hope.... there is no future....there is only GRISSIONZ
The 2011 Mets- Rock bottom: We haven't reached it yet
I really like your plan
Although you didn’t attempt getting rid of Bay, I would be perfectly happy if the 2012 roster shaped up like this.
I too looked at Slowey but decided to go in a different direction.
Not sure why you’d want to exchange Vazquez for Pelfrey when everything people are saying about Pelfrey was said abuot Vazquez last offseason (except Pelfrey is cheaper and younger). Also not sure why you would bring back harris and Paulino when they combined for 0.0 fWAR.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
I have to fail you for lack of financial literacy
Never, ever, ever, do anything but backload as much of a contract as possible. If you are an owner, you care about money and a backloaded contract is cheaper. If you are an agent or less financially literate player, you care about the total number, even if the actual value of the contract is less because 1. agents like to market based on it and 2. it is better for player’s ego.
I feel like it's more complicated than that
You’re right that a basic tenet of finance is that money in the present has greater value than that same money in the future. It very often makes sense to save up front and pay later.
But in the context of a budget, you have to prioritize and plan your investments to yield the greatest total value, year after year, sustainably and ideally with that value growing.
For one thing, backloading a contract reduces payroll flexibility in those later years and you can end up with the very problem we have now, possibly unable to retain the star players that make our team the most competitive one possible. Moreover, it reduces the team’s ability to trade the player years from now because his salary will be so high.
by TheBigStapler on Oct 21, 2011 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Like the Ankiel idea
Especially because of his defense…obviously, that’s a concern in the OF at this point.
Not too sure about Vasquez, I’d look elsewhere on that.
Mets, Devils, Jets, Knicks
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Dickey be Praised!
yeah, this
he’s be a good replacement for Pagan, IMO.
Would rather keep Pagan, but if the price is right………..
One day, this team is going to kill me.
one question
who is our backup short stop? nobody one the bench plays short.
And please no Vazquez and whats the obsession with Broxton, ive seen him in too many AAOPs so far
Broxton is a moderate cost/high reward option.
The opportunity to get a elite bullpen arm for under $5M doesn’t come around often.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
by Ogre39666 on Oct 21, 2011 7:12 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I don't like Vazquez either
especially at $7.5M less than that, not even.
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
I do
In his last 18 starts, opponents had a .553 OPS against him. He’ll be a better pitcher than Mike Pelfrey next season.
That is… if he pitches.
Oh pissing blimey there's jam coming out of the walls!
similar pitchers if you ask me...(wow me defending "big Pelf")
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
by feslenraster on Oct 22, 2011 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Vasquez both eats innings and strikes guys out
Vasquez showed in the second half of the season that he has a good amount left in the tank. Pelfrey is a innings eater, but they are rather low quality innings.
Well according to Adam lobby
the Mets are likely to non tender Pagan, so there’s money there if you trade or non tender Pelf.
Vazquez is a much better pitcher.
Especiallly if you think (and I do) that he has the potential to put up a 120 ERA+ season.
Basically, he has a chance to be the best FA pitcher signed this winter. Pelfrey has no chance of being that.
Oh pissing blimey there's jam coming out of the walls!
You think Vazquez will be better than CJ Wilson? And no one is saying that Pelfrey will be amazing. Just that he'll be worth around what he's getting paid and shouldn't be cast off for nothing (not that this AAOP does that)
The thing that gets me is the everyone was convinced that Vazquez was finished and done last offseason (I was one of the few around here that defended him). Now he’s everyone’s favorite 35 year old.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
If it's only 2 million more?
Probably. You’re talking about a pretty big upgrade for only 2 million more? Absolutely…it’s not like you’re sacrificing a long term deal or players to sign him. It’s just a relatively insignificant amount of money.
The only questions in my mind are whether Vazquez is a ranked free agent (if so, that changes everything…I’m not interested in giving up a 2nd rounder for an older pitcher) and is he actually going to play in 2012?
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
You might know me as mistermet.
by Steve Schreiber on Oct 23, 2011 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Ummmmmm
The title of your post does not begin with AAOP. Therefore, it is disqualified. Therefore, I believe it should be a FanShot.
Actually I think this is quite good but I really really like bureaucracy
It's a triumph of number crunching over the human spirit...aaaaaand, it’s about time. -- Play-by-Play Announcer, The Simpsons.
Keeping Reyes
The problem is that long term contracts become albatrosses in later year. So why not structure one this way.
$20, $20, $30, $20, $10, $10, $10 — seven years, $120 million. But in the last years, when history says Jose wouldn’t be worth as much, he’d be paid less.
Another option is a “partnership” agreement, with Jose’s salary varying year-by-year over a base with Mets ticket revenues and SNY ad revenues. That takes out the possibility that his contract could bankrupt the team in a bad year.
Back-loading a contract allows the team to make money off the money they have to pay future.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
Even if Vazquez doesn't decide to retire next season
I think there is zero chance he signs with another New York team.
Mets, Jets, Islanders, Knicks.
GO RANGERS! Get Endy a ring!

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