AAOP: setting the stage for the future
OK, I´ll start by saying that I don´t think the Mets will be truly competitive in 2012 regardless of what they do. They can, however, be respectable and set the stage for 2013 and especially 2014, when I believe they will be competitive. The fact is that the team has a number of prospects coming at SP (or maybe RP), 2B, and OF who are not quite ready, or need more time for an accurate evaluation of what they can contribute. So I propose the following:
1. Let Reyes walk. Don´t get me wrong, I love the guy, but I firmly believe that some team will step up and offer him 6 years at big money, and I don´t think the Mets should do that, for all the reasons that have been discussed ad nauseum elsewhere. Tejada plays SS.
2. Trade Pelfrey, Duda, Pagan, Paulino, and Collin McHugh (who had a great GB ratio at AA and only allowed 2 HR all year) to CO for Dexter Fowler, Huston Street, Chris Ianetta, 3B prospect Nolan Arenado and one of their pitching prospects--maybe Chad Bettis (I don´t think we could get Pomerantz unless it´s a bigger deal that includes Wright.). Reasons: CO wants OF stability and SPs who can pitch a lot of innings. They have a catcher that´s almost ready. Mets want/need a closer, a CF, a C to catch some and mentor Thole, quality prospects, as well as a 3B should they decide to let Wright go in a year or two. Street has one year remaining on his deal, at which point the Mets should know better if Mejia and Familia will be starters or relievers. Fowler can be our CF in the future, leaving Cap´n Kirk for RF long-term, if he develops as we hope and stays healthy. Or he could be traded in a year if we were lucky enough to get Matt Kemp as a FA next year.
3. Sign Javier Vazquez to a 2 year $15 million deal. Outside of his stint with the Yankees he´s pitched well, and the 200ish innings he pitches will be higher quality that Pelfrey provides. He´ll be a good transition pitcher until Harvey/Z.Wheeler/Familia/Bettis/Mejia are ready, and a much better #2/3 than Pelfrey.
4. Sign RHRP Dan Wheeler and LHRP George Sherrill for the pen (or better J.Affeldt if his option isn´t picked up). $3-3.5 mill should do it for each.
5. Sign 2B/SS Jamey Carroll to a 2 year $4mil deal. He can play either position, mentor Murphy/Havens/Valdespin, or come off the bench.
6. Trade Gorski, FMart, and another low minors prospect to Tampa for BJ Upton. He could play CF or RF. He has 1 year left on his deal, which would allow the Mets more time to evaluate Cap'n Kirk, DenDekker, and Vaughn.
7. Re-sign Willie Harris.
8. Re-sign Miguel Batista as a long man/ spot starter.
Opening Day Roster
RHSP - J. Santana-- $23 million
RHSP- J. Vazquez-- $7.5 million
RHSP- RA Dickey-- $4.5 million
LHSP--J. Niese-- $0.45 million
RHSP- Dillon Gee--$0.45 million
CL- Huston Street -- $7 million
L-Tim Byrdak- $2.5 mill (?)
R-Dan Wheeler- $3 mill
L-George Sherrill- $3 mill
R-Manny Acosta- $1.5 mil
R- M. Batista- $1.5 mil
R- Parnell- $0.45 mil
C- Thole--$0.45
1B- Davis- $0.5
2B- J. Carroll- $2 mill
SS- Tejada-- $0.45
3B- Wright-- $16 mill
LF- Bay-- $18 mill
CF-- Fowler-- $2 mill
RF-- Upton --$7 mill
Bench-
C-Ianetta- $4 mill
IF- Murphy--$0.6 mil
IF/OF- Harris--$1.5 mil
OF--Baxter/Nieuwenhuis- $0.45 mill
IF- Evans/Lutz/Satin $0.45
Total payroll: $108.5 million
I think these moves give the Mets a chance to be respectable in 2012, change the chemistry, preserve flexibility for the future, and fill some gaps until prospects develop further or are more accurately evaluated. We might well see some of those rookies have cups of coffee in 2012, or even step into pen/bench roles in preparation for 2013. A better plan, emerging rookies, and respectable performance might make the team more attractive to FAs post-2012 too. I´m not expecting much next year, but some new faces that don´t block our top prospects, or do provide a potential long-term answer would be a breath of fresh air.
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Trading Duda--my AAOP
To answer a question before it´s asked, I´d flip Duda for Fowler for the following reasons:
1. CO wants a LFer
2. CF is a more difficult position to fill than the corners.
3. Bay is untradeable and will probably be with the team for 2 more years, at which point Vaughn, Flores, or Lagares might be able to step in in LF.
CO trade-- alternate
I´d trade Pelfrey, Duda, and McHugh for Street, Arenado, and Bettis.
by Dave In Spain on Oct 22, 2011 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Colorado deal
I think it becomes more realistic if you knock off that prospect and maybe one other in that trade. In my planning stages, I was also thinking of trading for Street, but based on his numbers, injury history and salary, I don’t think he’s worth it.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Oct 22, 2011 12:16 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Re: CO deal
I never know where to look up injury history. But Street appeared in 62 games this year (about his average), and had 62 hits allowed, with only 9 walks against 55 Ks. He didn´t have the saves because Bettancourt took over as closer, but I´m so tired of seeing Mets relievers walk batters that I´m eager to have a closer who doesn´t!. And unless they sign someone who is coming off a serious injury (and therefore with BIG questions), they would be paying at least $7 million anyway for a closer.
As to the prospects in the deal I understand your point, but I´d be just as inclined to include more prospects from our side to get them—maybe DenDekker or Flores. Proposing trades is such a crazy game anyway— it´s just an idea based on not-enough-info…. Fun though!
by Dave In Spain on Oct 22, 2011 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Essentially, in the Colorado deal...
You’re asking for three good players (Fowler, Street, Ianetta) in exchange for one good player (Duda) and three question marks (Pelf, Pagan, Paulino). I’m not sure they’re as desperate for Pelfrey as everyone thinks.
Essentially...
I´ve read that CO wants to trade Street for salary relief, and they´re open to trading Ianetta as they have Rosario (?) almost ready. I see Fowler as the one good (and young, controllable) player from their side, with Arenado and Bettis as other very attractive pieces. From our side I´d agree that Pagan and Paulino are question marks, but at least Pagan could replace Fowler in the field, and Paulino could backup Rosario. CO had only 3 pitchers who pitched over 100 innings, and one was traded to the Indians mid-year. They have Pomerantz penciled in, but they really need stability in their rotation. One thing you can say for Pelf is that he does pitch 180-200 innings per year consistently.
by Dave In Spain on Oct 22, 2011 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
This, pretty much
They could use a Pelf, but wouldn’t be hard pressed to find a similar guy elsewhere.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Oct 22, 2011 3:09 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I am not sure that colorado would do that deal
its a big stretch to think they would accept a deal that has them regress at 3 positions while getting better at none. Even if they get a bit of salary relief.
I think it was Bobby V who said: "You are never as good as you are when you are at your best, and you are not as bad as when you are at your worst."
Like the really funny uncle with a healthy bourbon habit who matches every brilliant Thanksgiving story with one or two ill-advised racist jokes or boob grabs, we’re stuck with Melo. So we might as well learn to love him — quirks and all. http://knickerblogger.net/2011-report-card-carmelo-anthony/
Gbaked
They might regress a little in CF and C, but they would improve in LF and at SP. CO has only two pitchers returning who pitched more than 100 innings for them last year. They need someone who pitches a lot of innings.
by Dave In Spain on Oct 22, 2011 2:21 PM EDT up reply actions
1. Off to a bad start.
2. Unrealistic trade.
6. No way in hell that trade happens.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
Ogre
1. Reyes is beyond my control, so I´m just starting from the hypothesis that he´s gone.
2. How would you improve the CO trade to make it more realistic? I don´t think it´s that far off.
6. Yeah, I was just throwing that out there. I´d like to get Upton but I have no idea what Tampa would want. Given their AL-lowest attendance and their owner´s comments about how they lost money in spite of success on the field, I was looking at it as a salary relief thing. Any ideas?
by Dave In Spain on Oct 22, 2011 2:19 PM EDT up reply actions
1. The whole point of an AAOP is that these things are in your control.
2. Give up more talent. Paulino is useless. Maybe if you give up Marte and another moderate-upside arm.
3. Start off with a top-5 prospect, then add a top-10 and another moderate-upside guy.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
Good suggestions!
1. That wasn´t my interpretation. I prefer to live in the real world. I could also propose a trade for King Felix, but that ain’t happening.
2.I´d gladly include Marte if Arenado was in the deal. The only reason I included Paulino was to give CO a positional replacement for Ianetta (as a stopgap/backup).
6. Good place to start, though that might be a little much for a guy who has only one year of control left and doesn´t have star level BA or OBP.
by Dave In Spain on Oct 22, 2011 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions
COL has three catchering options currently, completely ignoring Iannetta
Their normal back up (forget his name, something Hispanic) plus prospects Rosario and Pacheco. They don’t need catching- especially Paulino who isn’t that great.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Oct 22, 2011 3:12 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
1. Re-signing Reyes ≠ trading for Felix Hernandez.
2. Yeah, but that’s not what’s in your AAOP.
3. We’re dealing with Friedman here.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
I am sorry but
all the AAOPs I read involved adding Jamey Carroll. WHY? the guy is a nice utility man, I get it, but he’s basically Joe McEwing.
re-sign Willie Harris? ugh. Hutson Street…interesting idea, but nah. the guy reminds me of a slightly better version of Braden Looper. I’d also much rather keep Duda, Fowler is erratic as a player.
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
feslenraster
The Mets need someone who can backup SS if Reyes goes and Tejada is playing. They also need someone to pair with Murphy (if he´s at 2B) for defensive purposes or if he hasn´t recovered from his injury. Also, in 2013 Havens or Valdespin will be knocking on the door. Hence, 2 year deal for Carroll.
Harris—yeah, he´s so-so. Not a deal breaker, but he is versatile.
Street- What are the affordable alternatives? Broxton coming off a serious injury?
Fowler- CF is a more valuable position than LF, so Duda´s value depends on his position. Mets can´t move Bay, and they´re not happy with Pagan. Alternatives in CF? Coco Crisp- yawn. Grady Sizemore (if available)—risky. Ankiel- meh.
by Dave In Spain on Oct 22, 2011 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed.
Carroll and Harris are pretty good ways to say you’re not creative.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
Why thank you!
Your creative solutions are…?
by Dave In Spain on Oct 22, 2011 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Your AAOP
You´ve done more homework than I have! I have to admit I don´t know anything about most of the players you proposed, but I´ll look into them. My one bone to pick is that Aderlin Rodriguez will in no-way be able to slide into a ML lineup in ¨a year or so¨ ; he´s probably 3 years away. I´m also not sure that Satin has much value in a trade, for age, injury, and defensive reasons, and I´d rather keep Lagares until I can see a little more of him. He could be a very valuable 4th OFer in the very near future. That said, not a deal-breaker.
I was trying not to use as many farm guys as you did in the trades I proposed. Need to think about your trades and what holes it might leave in the system.
by Dave In Spain on Oct 22, 2011 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
We have a numbers crunch this offseason.
We’re have quite a few guys who will be rule-5 eligible who are valuable. We’re either going to lose those guys or we have to make room. I decided to move some of the prospects who are blocked (Marte, Anderlin, and Lutz) and free up some 40-man roster space (Satin and Armando Rodriguez). Plus the guys who I acquired in trades still have potential so it’s not like I’m trading upside for non-upside.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
Ogre
Your sarcasm is biting and cutting edge.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Oct 22, 2011 3:14 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Dumb comment
There is no hope.... there is no future....there is only GRISSIONZ
The 2011 Mets- Rock bottom: We haven't reached it yet
I'm sorry if I think retaining a guy who has been worth 0.3 WAR over the last 3 years is a bad move.
Carroll has been worth a little over 2 WAR each of the last 2 seasons while getting over 400 and 500 PA’s respectively. Excuse me if I want someone with actual upside if we’re going to let Reyes walk.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
And that's not even mentioning that prior to the last 2 seasons
Carroll wasn’t even average, putting up WAR’s < 2.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
Who on AA has actually suggested Carroll as the starter?
I haven’t, and I don’t think anyone else has. He’s a valuable bench guy who gets on base, and he’d be an upgrade over someone like Turner.
There is no hope.... there is no future....there is only GRISSIONZ
The 2011 Mets- Rock bottom: We haven't reached it yet
This guy who's AAOP we're commenting on.
2B- J. Carroll- $2 mill
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
Woops
but what does Carroll have to do with Reyes? Tejada is his replacement, not Carroll.
And to be fair, he does say
He can play either position, mentor Murphy/Havens/Valdespin, or come off the bench.
There is no hope.... there is no future....there is only GRISSIONZ
The 2011 Mets- Rock bottom: We haven't reached it yet
Tejada might be playing SS but that is just semantics.
He has taken Reyes’ production out of the lineup and penciled in Carroll’s.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
Semantics?
As i said before, I think we’re losing Reyes (who no one mentions is coming off a career year). I don’ think Reyes would repeat his own production. Tejada plays short, and will provide equal or better defense, though less offense. Carroll and Murphy’s offense will be combined at 2b (sorry I made the unforgivable error of not listing them as a platoon), and Carroll’ D is much better than Murphy’s. Don’t oversimplify by saying I’ replacing Reyes with Carroll.
by Dave In Spain on Oct 23, 2011 4:18 AM EDT up reply actions
I dont get it either
I am not sure what is with the love for Carroll. I also dont understand why someone would trade The Dude
He plays multiple positions, plays decent defense, and gets on base
Good enough for you?
There is no hope.... there is no future....there is only GRISSIONZ
The 2011 Mets- Rock bottom: We haven't reached it yet
That's a bad trade for both sides.
I like Gorski, and I don’t see the Rays wanting anything to do with F!
Mets, Jets, Islanders, Knicks.
GO RANGERS! Get Endy a ring!
GORSKI!!!!!!!!!
Nooooooooo
Don't feed the TROLL!...You have been warned.
by the maroon bird on Oct 22, 2011 10:15 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

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