FanPost

AAOP: Yes We Can [Compete in 2012]

Alderson_medium

(That's supposed to be Sandy Alderson.  For some reason that was the best I could do with this.  Hey, I'm not here to be a graphic designer.)

I believe that this AAOP makes this a team capable of winning in 2012, while building a strong future through the acquisition of some good prospects.  It's not a team that will overpower, but it's very solid up down.   Most of you will probably disagree with some of my moves, but as is often said: "This is my AAOP.  There are many like it, but this one is mine."  I am, however, open to comments, questions, and suggestions--just don't be too harsh.  Anyway, let's get on with it, shall we?

Signings:

1. Jose Reyes.  I am actually kind of loath to do this.  He is somewhat injury prone, looked pretty meh in August and September, and before his great 2011 had not-so-great seasons in 2009 and 2010.  Still, great shortstops are hard to find, and Reyes brings fans and enthusiasm.  So I think the Mets should re-sign him.  Offer him $95M for five years, with an option for a sixth year of, say, $15M.  $110M over six years isn't chump change, and I expect Reyes to take it.

2. Chris Capuano and Scott Hairston.  Capuano was actually one of the better pitchers last year, as he pitched to a 3.67 xFIP with a .311 BABIP (his career is .300).  If he stays healthy, he could actually improve on his numbers last year and be a solid #3 pitcher.  We can steal him for $3M/1y.  Hairston wasn't any great revelation, but he was a perfectly decent back-up outfielder.  Get him back for $1.5M/1y.

3. Edwin Jackson.  I really like Jackson.  He's had xFIPs of 3.71 and 3.73 over the past two years, despite having pretty high BABIPs in the process.  He's not ace material by any measure, but he'd be a solid #2 starter on most teams.  That, plus his durability (that is, he's never been out for an extended period of time) makes chasing him an easy decision.  He's a Boras client, so who knows what sort of contract he'll be chasing, but I think he could be signed for $40M/4y.  It's hard to give out that sort of contract after the Oliver Perez debacle, but I think Jackson would be worth it.  I hope.

4. Brad Lidge and Nate McLouth.  Lidge is one of the oft-discussed FA closers who could be had for a one-year, incentive-laden contract.  I'd love to see him shutting down the Phillies this season, and I think something around $5M/1y would be good for him.  I'd even go up to $6M.  McLouth has been pretty bad for the past few years, but his true self is probably somewhere between his 3.5 WAR years in Pittsburgh and his 0 WAR years in Atlanta.  I'll take that at $1M for one year.  Maybe he'll even revert back to his Pittsburgh form and put up some great numbers.

5. Miguel Batista, Zach Duke, Yoshinori Tateyama, Chris Young.  Pitching depth, plain and simple.  These four guys could certainly help out if needed, and would probably accept minor-league assignments if they knew they would get chances to help out later in the season.  Hell, you can put them on the opening day roster if they do exceptionally well in Spring Training.  Any of them, save for Young, would be able to do bullpen or rotation duty.  Also, while all four of them had some success in 2011, none of them had enough to be in a position to demand a permanent roster spot in 2012.  I'd be happy to have any of them pitching for the Mets at any point in the 2012 season; hopefully they agree.  (Also, non-tender Mike Pelfrey.  Sorry, Big Pelf.  I love you, but you're not very good.  I'd tender you a contract and trade you, but I don't think anybody else wants you either...)

 

Trades:

1. Angel Pagan, Josh Satin, and Josh Thole to OAK for RP Fautino De Los Santos and C Kurt Suzuki.  Can't you just see Pagan in an A's uniform?  He's a great player for that team.  A versatile outfielder with a potent bat who many other teams may not want because he just had an off year.  So yeah, tender him a contract and ship him off.  What's the point of this trade?  It's two-fold: shore up the bullpen and acquire a good starting catcher.  As much as I love Thole, he hasn't done anything to prove to me that he's ready to be anything more than a platoon starter, at best, as of now.  Originally I had this trade without him involved, but it strikes me as more likely that the A's would do it if they got a catcher back in return.  Satin is pretty expendable, so throw him over to them as well.  Who's coming back?  Fautino De Los Santos was/is a highly-touted A's prospect, and would be a great addition to the Mets' terrible bullpen.  Suzuki's MLB career has been somewhat disappointing, but he was better than his numbers suggest last year, and his breakout potential that many people keep talking about remains there.

2. Fernando Martinez and Bobby Parnell to CIN for IF Todd Frazier and 2B Henry Rodriguez.  The Reds need bullpen help.  Give them the troubled Parnell along with struggling longtime-prospect (how is he only 23-years-old?) Fernando Martinez.  In exchange, the Mets get a very competent infielder in Todd Frazier, and a young but highly touted 2B prospect in Henry Rodriguez.  The Reds are in a pretty weak division, so this is somewhat of a win-now move for them.  Besides, their infield is pretty set, so why do they need Frazier and Rodriguez?

3. Mark Cohoon, Jason Bay, Zach Lutz, Daniel Murphy, and $4M to BAL for OF Xavier Avery, RP Jeremy Accardo, RP Kevin Gregg, and OF Luke Scott.  This is the big one.  I believe in Jason Bay, but if there was any time to trade him it's now, especially for the right package.  The Orioles are a struggling franchise that's finding it hard to pay their players.  We trade them Bay, Lutz (good 3B prospect), Cohoon (middling SP prospect), Murphy (ready to take over at basically any position but SS, which is good because Hardy is the O's' only good player), and some money to sweeten the deal.  We get back Accardo, Gregg, and Scott, whose salaries total about equal to Bay's, as well as a promising prospect in Avery.  Why would the Orioles do this?  They might not even pick up Scott's option due to his high salary.  If they can make money, shed dead weight in the bullpen, and get a new left fielder who can only improve on his past performance, why not do it?  The Mets put Scott in left field, and hope Accardo and Gregg do better next year.  Accardo is probably better than his 4.99 xFIP of last year; Gregg, however, may not be better than his 4.86 xFIP.  Let's hope they both are.  In any case, we get rid of a bad contract and get back a good young player in Scott as well as a mid-range prospect in Avery.

 

Summary:

I firmly believe that a healthy team comprised of these players would at least be a strong contender for the 2012 wild card, and could even threaten the Phillies for the division.  Ike and Reyes should pick up right where they left off, Wright should improve on his middling results from last year, Tejada will continue this hitting maturation I keep hearing about, Scott will find Citi Field's new dimensions to his liking, and everybody else will be above-average hitters at their positions.  The addition of Jackson, and the return of Santana, will make the pitching much improved.  There's no true ace on this staff, but there also isn't any true #4 or #5 starter either.  There are five solid pitchers, with Gee and Young on reserve if need be.  The bullpen is also better than last year, and if any of the arms falter Acosta, Herrera, Duke, Tateyama, Batista, and others (Mejia, perhaps?) will be in Buffalo waiting to pitch in.  I see this team as a solid 88-win team, with serious potential for more if certain players (*cough* the hitters I mentioned before *cough*) play to what we know and think they can and should.

 

The full roster:

C Kurt Suzuki

1B Ike Davis

2B Ruben Tejada

3B David Wright

SS Jose Reyes

LF Luke Scott

CF Nate McLouth

RF Lucas Duda

(Lineup: Reyes/Tejada/Wright/Davis/Duda/Scott/Suzuki/McLouth/Pitcher)

 

SP Jon Niese

SP Edwin Jackson

SP R.A. Dickey

SP Johan Santana

SP Chris Capuano

 

CL Brad Lidge

RP Jeremy Accardo

RP Pedro Beato

RP Tim Byrdak

RP Fautino De Los Santos

RP Kevin Gregg

SP Dillon Gee (Fills in for Capuano sometimes, plays long man other times)

 

C Mike Nickeas

IF Todd Frazier

IF Justin Turner

1B/OF Nick Evans

OF Scott Hairston

 

Total Payroll: ~$115M

This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions, reasoning skills, or attention to grammar and usage rules held by the editors of this site.

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