FanPost

AAOP: New York City Should be Mets' City


I created this AAOP following the spread sheet of Cot's Contracts here. According to that spreadsheet, we're starting off with a salary that is at $66.83 Million and working our way up to $110 million (estimated payroll cap). I wanted to try and address two things here: Pitching and Defense. The Mets had a relatively good offensive year in 2011, but still lost games due to inadequate pitching and fielding blunders at times. (Sorry in advance for the lack of MS Paintz).

Trades:

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Send Wilmer Flores, Pedro Zapata, and Josh Satin to Tampa Bay for James Shields.

Why do it? There are names here that need to be protected by the 40 man roster or become susceptible to the Rule 5 draft.  Not to mention we need quality pitching for next year’s rotation, and pitchers that can pitch deep into games. As great as Capuano and Niese were, for the most part they are 6 inning to 7 inning pitchers typically. Shields is a very durable pitcher having pitched over 200 innings for the last 5 seasons. Do I think he repeats this year’s performance? Maybe not, but this is 3rd season of posting an fWAR of over 4 (4.9 in ’11, 4.5 in ’07, 4.1 in ’08). His next 3 years are club options which go as follows: $7 M in ’12, $9 M in ’13, $12 M in ‘14. Even if he starts getting too expensive, those are club options so we can cut bait if necessary if I’m not mistaken. Why would Tampa do it? They are most likely looking to part ways with Shields much like they did last year with Garza. In fact, many people thought Shields would be the one to go more than Garza last winter. Shields had an amazing season, true, but he’s someone that Tampa would see as expendable (and a valuable trade piece) with the emergence of Matt Moore. Also, in trading for these 3 pieces they get to stash them in their minor league system (or start them in Satin’s case) whereas the Rule 5 draft demands that the player stay on your major league roster the entire year. Flores is the centerpiece here and I’m okay with letting him go, along with Zapata and hard-hittin’ Josh Satin – who can replace Kotchman and probably rake at 1B or DH for the foreseeable future. Maybe this deal isn’t enough, but I think it’s a good deal for a team that always likes to maximize talent without paying for it.

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Send Zach Lutz, Allan Dykstra and Dillon Gee to Ahaheim for Peter Bourjos.

Mike Trout is Anaheim’s CF of the future. Bourjos, in his own right, is an outstanding defensive CF who had a solid year with the bat in his first full season of action, posting a 4.3 fWAR. And with Torii Hunter and Vernon Wells not going anywhere due to their ridiculous contracts, Bourjos stands to be the odd man out. Lutz is blocked at 3B, Dykstra at 1B, and we can replace Gee’s production to say the least. Maybe Anaheim would ask for more, but the main gist of this is to acquire Peter Bourjos for CF duties in 2012 and beyond (he’s not even arbitration eligible yet).

Signings:

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Sign SS Jose Reyes to 6 yrs/$120M contract.

This isn’t really thinking outside of the box here but I think we need to keep Reyes. Even if he is "oft injured" like some protest, we still got 130 games of him this year where he generated a 6.2 fWAR. Keep in mind that was him not even hitting around his career best numbers in XBH (I think next season we can see him back to his 12-15 HR range). With Tejada giving him regular rest, 145 games of Jose Reyes will be well worth the money. Nuff said. #paytheman

Sign Jonathan Broxton to 1 yr/$3M contract.

I think Broxton can be a nice stop gap for 2012 at the closer position. This is also a chance for him to showcase himself, much like we did last year with Capuano and Young. I think there’s a mutual interest here: we need a closer, and he needs somewhere he can showcase himself for another multi-year contract.

Non tender Angel Pagan

I know, I know. He wasn’t that bad. And he was amazing in 2010. But I think the writing was on the wall for Pagan’s downward spiral as early as 2010. After an amazing July, his power, and hitting prowess altogether, left him almost completely. In the months of August and September of 2010 Pagan sported an ISO of .083 and .062 respectively with wOBA of .268 and .286 to match. Yeesh.  And the trend followed this year as he only had two months, June (.130) and August (.159) where he put up a respectable ISO. He simply wasn’t hitting the ball hard this year, not to mention playing pretty bad defense in CF. Not to mention we just picked up one of hell of a defensive CF in Peter Bourjos with the earlier trade.

Offer arbitration to Manny Acosta (1 yr/$900k)

Manny Acosta was arguably the best relief pitcher we had in the second half of the season. I don’t think he’s a closer in the long run, but he seems like a pitcher who can be effective in high leverage situations for us in 2012.

Re-sign Scott Hairston to 1 yr/ $1.2M

Scott Hairston was very good against lefties, and filled in quite nicely at corner OF spots, and was passable at CF. He's still a very useful bat off the bench.

Offer arbitration to Mike Pelfrey (1/$4.8M)

I hate Mike Pelfrey. Loathe him really. But he’s young, pitched almost 200 innings this year, and with better defense behind him, can be a sub 4 ERA pitcher. If that’s the case, he still possesses the ability of being a trade chip at the deadline. Something for something is better than nothing.

Sign Matt Belisle to 2 yrs/$4M

7.9 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 are pretty good, and I think Belisle will be a good addition to the bullpen. And at 31, the second year looks good to me.

Sign Mike Gonzalez to 1 year/$2M

Mike Gonzalez has been a journeyman of sorts, but despite the 4+ERA he posted good K/9 (8.6) and decent BB/9 (3.5) last year. Another LHP in the bullpen wouldn’t be a bad thing either.

Note: I like Capuano and how he did last year, but I can see this being a Takahashi scenario where he just becomes more expensive than we’d care for him to be. Also with me obtaining Shields and keeping Pelfrey, I’d like to have Capuano in the long relief/spot starter role, but I feel he may want to sign somewhere where he is definitely in the rotation. Too bad on that front.

Non tender Ronny Paulino, sign Ramon Hernandez to 1 yr/$2.5M

This isn’t an innovative deal; I’ve seen it in other AAOPs. But he offers much more in the way of defense and offense than we currently get with Paulino, so I like this deal.

 

Lineup:

Starters:

 

Player

Salary

1B - Ike Davis

 .4 M

2B - Daniel Murphy

 .4M

SS - Jose Reyes

 20M

3B - David Wright

 15.3M

RF - Lucas Duda

 .4M

CF - Peter Bourjos

 .4M

LF - Jason Bay

 18M

C - Josh Thole

 .4M

 

Bench: IF Tejada, IF Justin Turner, IF/OF Nick Evans, C Ramon Hernandez, OF Scott Hairston

Possible call-ups: Jordany Valdespin, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Mike Nickeas

Starting Rotation:

 

Player

Salary

James Shields

 7M

R.A. Dickey

 4.75M

Jon Niese

 .4M

Mike Pelfrey

 4.8M

Johan Santana

 24M

 

Note on Santana: My plan for him is to be the 5th starter, which allows for occasionally skipping his start for rest purposes as well as having Schwinden or whoever else from AAA ready for the call up for any games he would miss. I’m not counting on Santana to be an ace at all this year, and will gladly take any positive production he gives us.  That being said, Santana, barring any setbacks pitching every 5th day will be a definite upgrade in 2012’s rotation.

Bullpen:

 

Player

Salary

Bobby Parnell

 .6M

Matt Belisle

 2M

Tim Byrdak

 .9M

Mike Gonzalez

 2M

Manny Acosta

 .9M

D.J Carrasco

 1.2M

Jonathan Broxton

 3M

 

Possible call-ups: Josh Stinson, Daniel Ray Herrera, Pedro Beato, Matt Harvey (hopeful), Jeurys Familia (hopeful)

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In short, I think with this lineup we bring back to the same offense we had this year, which was above average. At the same time, I think we’ve made the team better defensively in acquiring Bourjos and Hernandez. Not only that, but we’ve improved our pitching by acquiring Shields, as well some upgrades for the bullpen. Santana is the wild card, but counting on him as a 5th starter minimizes the risk, versus 2011 where we were expecting our number 1 pitcher back. Not to mention I think Matt Harvey and/or Jeurys Familia can make the rotation by mid to late-season depending on how well they do in AAA (Maybe Familia more so since he'll already be on the 40 man roster).  At that point, we can make a mid season move like trading Pelfrey to open up a spot.

Is this a WS winner? Most likely not, but I do believe it can compete for a Wild Card position. And it's all about making it to the playoffs and then seeing where it goes from there. At the very least, this team will put up a good fight like it did in 2011, but sport a record over .500 at season's end.

 

Final Budget: $110.6

This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions, reasoning skills, or attention to grammar and usage rules held by the editors of this site.

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