FanPost

AAOP: Snakebite Anti-venom

This is an updated version for the contest that is a little more realistic. Thanks to everyone who commented on my initial iteration. I decided to nix the trade I had and just keep all our prospects intact. This is not a plan to trade the core, or have a firesale and rebuild. Gutting the team and slashing payroll is not a solution to the team's financial problems. As much as some people might think it is, the cut in payroll this year is actually caused by the need to not give out any more massive contracts that will hamstring the team in a few years. The way to solve the financial problems is by filling the stadium every night and making money plain and simple. This is a team that has the talent to contend, it just has a few holes that can be creatively filled and we'll find the anti-venom for that pesky snakebite that has been plaguing the team for the past few years. I'll start by describing the major moves the team needs to make then I'll outline the lineup and rotation.

But first I'll let Samuel L. Dickey kick things off.

Dickeysnakes_medium

via i1121.photobucket.com

"Enough is enough! I have had it with these %$#@ snakes on this #@%$ plane! Everybody strap in. I'm about to open some $%@# windows!"

Jose Reyes: Ok, so I'm going to break my own rule about giving out massive contracts right away. It comes down to wether you think the team can compete within the next year or two or if you just want to rebuild. I think this team can compete even if you can only get 130-140 games out of Reyes each season due to regular rest and some injuries. He has shown this year that he ultimately still has the potential to put up very good numbers like he has throughout his career. As for the contract, it would have to be backloaded slightly to give the team the flexibility it needs for this year and next. Also the reason I would break the massive contract rule for Reyes is because his value is also tied into is his popularity, and the attendance numbers next year would definitely take a hit if we let him go. I would give Jose a $96M contract over 5 years with an option for a sixth year at an additional $21M. The breakdown is as follows: 2012 $16M; 2013 $18M; 2014 $20M; 2015 $21M; 2016 $21M; 2017 $21M Team option that vests with 600 PA in 2016 or 1000 PA in 2015-2016. This breakdown is very similar to the Crawford deal minus a year and if Reyes does get injured down the line this would be the proper situation to include the ever frightening vest. The first two years gives the team a little flexibility until the contracts of Santana and Bay expire.

Rotation: The starting pitching could improve with the return of Santana, but with his effectiveness still uncertain I propose to add another starter to add some depth in case of injuries. This is not the year to rush the young arms again however. Harvey, Familia, Mejia, and Wheeler still have something left to prove in the minors and should remain there all year and maybe some of them could get a cup of coffee in September and be ready for 2013. What a fun rotation that is looking like!

Mike Pelfrey: I would offer arbitration to Pelfrey as he has been a league average innings eater and someone who we know exactly what he is with no risk involved. He is a solid #4-5 starter and I have a theory that when the pitching around him improves so will he. Pelfrey also has the potential to improve his perception to where he might become a useful trade chip by midsummer especially if one of Mejia, Harvey, or Familia has proven ready for a callup.

Chris Capuano: I would let Capuano go as he is going to want considerably more money and multiple years. The point of a scrapheap arm like Capuano is to get as much as you can from him for very little money. We achieved that and there should be no reason to pay any more for a player who is only one year removed from being high risk. So instead of Capuano I propose to bring in Capuano version 2.0.

Erik Bedard: He's been an injury risk for the past three years, but last year pitched 129.1 innings with a K/BB ratio of 2.60 and a FIP of 3.89 which would be a great improvement over a whole season of Dillon Gee and even an improvement over Capuano. Its not definite that the Red Sox resign him so I think the Mets have a shot at getting him relatively cheap. We would probably have to give him a little more guaranteed money than we gave Capuano and Young to get him to sign with us. I'd go as high as $3M guaranteed and up to $6M total with bonuses. This would be less guaranteed money than Capuano would probably sign for and we most likely would not have to give him multiple years.

The only concern about this rotation is how many innings could Santana and Bedard put together. That 129.1 IP is the most Bedard has pitched in the last three seasons and Santana is coming off of a year of rehab. Thankfully the pitching depth at AAA would get a great boost with Gee and Schwinden stockpiled there. Gee proved to be an acceptable Major League pitcher, and Schwinden has at least the same floor as that, so at worst we would probably have a half season of one or both of them. We would also have the upside of a healthy Santana and Bedard.

Bullpen: The useable parts include Bobby Parnell, Manny Acosta, and Tim Byrdak. Beato and Stinson are young enough that they could both use a little more work in the minors, but would provide some good depth in case of injuries. Carrasco gets the Toyota Irrigation treatment and gets stashed in the Minors until he proves he can not suck or we really need a warm body.

Taylor Buchholz: I would give Buchholz the exact same offer as last year as a cheap reliever with some potential who is apparently healthy if he has dealt with his demons.

Darren Oliver: The pen needs a second lefty arm and one who can also pitch to both sides. Oliver is certainly old at 41 and would hopefully not cost more than a $2M one year deal which would be a pay cut for him. However despite being old he has been remarkably consistent posting good K/BB ratios and surprising the HR for the past 5 seasons.

Joel Peralta: He can strike out a good number and walks very few. For some reason Peralta has never commanded a ton of money and could hopefully be another one year deal to solidify the pen, although I wouldn't be against giving him multiple years. Also I believe Peralta could be the type of pitcher who could close if given the opportunity. That would only be if the next guy on my list proves he can't close any more though.

Jonathan Broxton: He's a good bet to be non-tendered by LA and coming off an injured/ineffective season he could be had for a cheap incentive laden deal. Broxton has the stuff to strike out the world while his control has never been great but has taken a turn for the worse with bone spurs in his elbow. This is not that serious an injury though and I would expect him to return to form.

Position players: Not too much here. If it ain't broke don't fix it. The offense was definitely a strength last year, and will get a boost from some healthy players. The defense is something I can live with and hopefully it will also get a little better on its own.

Angel Pagan: This is a tough decision, but I ultimately would bring him back. I went back and forth on this quite a bit, and even found some creative replacements in Grady Sizemore and Andres Torres, but I couldn't find a good enough reason to not bring back Angel. Sizemore obviously has All-star upside, but he also would be a huge injury risk. Torres is roughly the same player as Pagan with maybe a little worse on base skills and a little better defense. Torres also had a crappy year last year and would come cheaper. In the end I think I'd rather just stay with what's familiar and I had the money leftover anyway.

Endy Chavez: Got to bring back the fan favorite. Endy would be a great backup and defensive replacement at all three outfield positions as he has played awesome for Texas this year. Endy has always been a great defender with a solid bat and could be relied upon to start for stretches.

The rest of the outfield would still be Bay in left and Duda in right. The biggest concern for Alderson this season in my opinion is to try to trade Bay. I don't care what his trade value is or how well the team is playing with him. I don't want to pay him $18M for possibly two more years when we could have Duda in a more suitable position in LF and Nieuwenhuis taking over RF.

As for the infield you have to have Daniel Murphy's bat at 2B for most of the starts. I would have Ruben Tejada on the bench as Murphy's defensive replacement/platoon and to give Reyes regular rest. Tejada should get around a third of the starts at 2B, and probably 15-20 starts at SS for Reyes' rest. The rest of the bench would be Turner, Evans, and get another cheap catcher like Kelly Shoppach who would be primarily pinch hitters although Evans could give Ike or Wright a day off and Turner could take a couple starts at 2B to allow Murphy to spell Wright. This bench full of young players should give the Mets all the positional flexibility they need while making sure that we don't give any more AB's to Willie Harris.

The following are the dollar figures broken up into respective groups, and projected WAR values which may be a little biased in some areas.

Guaranteed

Johan Santana - 24M

Jason Bay - 18.1M

David Wright - 15.3M

RA Dickey - 4.8M

DJ Carrasco - 1.2M

Tim Byrdak - 1.5M

Team controlled

Ike Davis - .45M

Josh Thole - .45M

Daniel Murphy - .45M

Lucas Duda - .43M

Justin Turner - .43M

Jon Niese - .45M

Dillon Gee - .43M

Bobby Parnell - .45M

Pedro Beato - .43M

Nick Evans - .43M

Arbitration

Mike Pelfrey - 5M

Angel Pagan - 4.7M

Taylor Buchholz - 1M

Manny Acosta - 1M

Free Agents

Jose Reyes - 16M (96M 5yr w/20M option for 2017 or 5M buyout)

Erik Bedard - 3M (1 year with incentives up to 6M)

Endy Chavez - 2M (1 year)

Kelly Shoppach - 1.5M (1 year)

Jonathan Broxton - 3M (1 year with incentives up to 5M)

Joel Peralta - 1.5M (1 year)

Darren Oliver - 2M (1 year)

Total Payroll - $110.0M

Lineup WAR (projected)

C Thole 1.5

1B Davis 4

2B Murphy 3

3B Wright 4

SS Reyes 5

LF Bay 2

CF Pagan 2

RF Duda 2.5

In the Minors: Nieuwhenhuis, Satin, Pridie, Lutz, Valdespin, Havens, Lagares

Rotation

L - Santana 2.5

R - Dickey 3

L - Niese 3

L - Bedard 3

R - Pelfrey 1

In the Minors: Gee, Schwinden, Familia, Harvey, Mejia

Bench 2.5

C Shoppach

2B Turner

SS Tejada

OF Chavez

Util Evans/Satin

Bullpen 2.5

R - Parnell

R - Acosta

R - Buchholz

R - Peralta

L - Byrdak

L - Oliver

R - Broxton

In the Minors: Beato, Stinson, Herrera, Carrasco, Edgin, Holt, Moore,

Projected WINZ - 41.5 WAR + 43.5 Base = 85 Not a bad starting point. The one thing I really want to see next year is a healthy team. Mets fans for the past three years have really been cheated by not seeing how the team can do with all of its stars on the field at the same time. When you have a team playing at half strength it definitely puts pressure on certain guys to try to carry the team. I think if this team can get everyone on the field for once it will be really exciting to see how they can do. I think guys like Wright, Bay, Pelfrey, and some others will improve with everyone else healthy and playing well. Its also going to be so important to win more this year to get people in the stadium. The financial woes the Mets are in are not going to get better by simply cutting payroll. The team will not be snakebit forever.

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