FanPost

AAOP: Keith's Mustache Tickler

I'm going to get right into it.

 

The Mets current roster has a few holes I'd like to address:

 

1) Crappy Long Term Payroll Commitments

 Bobby-bonilla-cash-for-life_medium

via mopupduty.com


2) Inconsistent (that's the nicest way I can put it) Starting pitching performances

Alg_mike_pelfrey_wipes_brow_medium

via assets.nydailynews.com

 

3) Poor Back End of the Bullpen

 

51tkuhaekkl

via ecx.images-amazon.com

 

Well let's fix the problem.

 

DEALLZZZ:

 

1) Daniel Murphy, Jordanny Valdespin, Cesar Puello for Yasmani Grandal, & Bronson Arroyo (Reds eat all 15 mil of the deferred money + 7.5 mil of 13.5 for 2012 & 2013 contract. = Mets Pay Arroyo 3 mil in 2012 & 2013)

Lqxdsbps_medium

via web.minorleaguebaseball.com

 

Bronson-arroyo-heyman_medium

via www.eworldpost.com

Why this is Totally is plausible and sensible for both teams:

Scott Rolen put up a .293 wOBA last year. He'll be 36 by opening day next year. He's under contract for 6.5 mil for 2012 which will be impossible to move before the deadline. Brandon Phillips is facing a club option of 12 mil for 2012 as well. Murphy gives the Reds a bat at 3B or 2B if they're not comfortable with going forth with Francisco or giving Phillips the money. In addition, they deal Arroyo which they've been trying to do for years.They pick up 2 solid prospects one who can potentially make an impact in 2012 and another with a very high ceiling.

The Mets have settled for mediocrity at the catcher position since Lo Duca's great steroid fueled campaign. Grandal is a big college bat, who is MLB ready. (Through 170+PA's at both A+ and AA he put up a wOBA of .407 & 370). Arroyo is a straight up innings eater who up until last year posted at least 175IP and 1.5 WAR since 2004. 

The Mets deal a blocked player and lower level blocked prospects for The Reds' blocked catcher and 5th starter.

 

 

 

2) Gavin Floyd, Carlos Quentin, Jake Peavy, Jesse Crain for Jason Bay, Mike Pelfrey, Angel Pagan, Lucas Duda, Darrell Ceciliani, Jefry Marte

 

Mlb_a_floyd_200_medium

via a.espncdn.com

 

Jake-peavy_medium

via www.mlb4all.com

Carlos_quentin-43_medium

via images.paraorkut.com

 

Jesse-crain-custom_medium

via www.sportable.com

 

 

THE GREAATTTT OVERHAUUUULLLL...

 

Why this actually works:

First part of the deal is a salary swap. Peavy and Bay make the same money with Bay's deal one year longer. Bay is actually an upgrade over the White Sox current LF, Juan Pierre. Peavy hasn't pitched more than 111 IP in any of the past 3 years. His lack of time on the field makes the salary tough to pay for Kenny WIlliams so he'll take a deal where he can go. He's injury prone to put it lightly, Bay, for all his perceived awfulness is a step up in Chicago and doesn't have any lingering injuries.

Pagan & Duda give the Sox upgrades over Alexi Rios and Quentin. Duda and Quentin are essentially the same player, (wOBA of 360 with mediocre gloves in RF). except Duda is 4 years younger which means 4 more years of cost control for Kenny WIlliams. A big plus for him.

In exchange for those 2 the Mets take back Quentin and Gavin Floyd. The Quentin for Duda swap gives the Sox a slight advantage given Quentin's injury history and Duda's age but the Mets kill with the Pagan for Floyd exchange. To even that up the Mets send Mike Pelfrey who should give quality innings in case Buehrle doesn't come back and also in case Stewart, Axelrod, & Sale don't pan out in 2012. Floyd would probably be used as trade bait this year anyway, as he is contracted for 2012 but only has a club option for 2013

The Mets also take back Jesse Crain who solidifies holes in their middle relief. And if Kenny isn't happy with these terms, the Mets also throw in Darrell Ceciliani & Jefry Marte. Both high ceiling players who could do well in Chicago's depleted system. Furthermore, the option of the DH expands possibilities for Bay & Duda.

 

3) Johan Santana & Josh Thole for Ryan Lavarnway, Josh Reddick, Michael Bowden  & Franklin Morales.

Ryanlavarnway_display_image_medium

via cdn.bleacherreport.net

 

Bos_g_jredtsin_300_medium

via a.espncdn.com



. Morales-purple_medium

via nbchardballtalk.files.wordpress.com

 

Why this trade works for both teams.

 

Red Sox nation is panicking, and they're cleaning house. They lack starting pitching with Lackey now out and Wakefield & Bedard at the back end of their rotation. CJ Wilson is the one big name in free agency, and the competition for him is sure to be ridiculous. But here come the Mets sending over Johan Santana, a top of the line starter who should be fully healthy heading into 2012.

In addition the Sox get Thole, who is cost controlled, durable, and should be a serviceable backup to Salty. 

 

For that package the Mets take Lavarnway, a blocked catcher who would move to DH, Josh Reddick, a blocked Outfielder, Morales, a solid, but occasionally wild hard throwing lefty, and Bowden, a replacement level reliever who has been need of a change of scenery.

 

It really comes down to valuing Santana. At this point, I consider Santana to be a top-flight starter, who should put up a 3.5-4.5 WAR season in 2012, especially in Boston. Morales & Bowden have little value. (neither has put up more than .5 WAR since becoming relievers.) Reddick is a solid starter but with Kalish also in the system, his departure is not unthinkable. Lavarnway would be shifted to DH in Boston but his bat is not guaranteed for 2012, and given Boston, they'd probably prefer to acquire a veteran (Carlos Beltran?) for that position.

 

This deal will probably be the most controversial, but I think it makes sense considering the hysteria in Boston, the departure of Theo, and their depth at all positions except Starting Pitching. 

 

4) Sign Coco Crisp

 

Coco-crisp-hairjpg-8c9851b02c59b016_medium

via media.mlive.com

 

Terms: 2 year deal 13 million total + 6 mil Club option for 2014

2012: 5 mil

2013: 5 mil

 

Why: Fills the void at CF, Has averaged 2 WAR the past 3 years. Has a 3 year UzR average of +2. ....The Hair.

 

 

5) Sign Joe Nathan

 

 

Joe-nathan-248x300_medium

via www.mlb4all.com

 

 

Terms: 1 year 5 mil deal with 60 Appearances incentive escalating the deal to 8 mil.

 

He's a closer, I think he'll bounce back from injury. Do you really prefer Frank Francisco?

 

 

6) Sign Endy Chavez

 

Chavez2_medium

via blog.timesunion.com

 

Terms: 1 year 1.5 mil deal with club option for 2013 worth 2 mil.

 

Why: You asked why? Get out

 

 

 

Offer arbitration to Manny Acosta,

Don't offer arbitration to: Taylor Buhholz

 

Oh and....

 

7) Resign Jose Reyes

 

Jose-reyes-540x360_medium

via flushingbaseballdaily.com

 

Terms:

4 years guaranteed for 85 mil ( 20, 20, 22, 23). If Reyes reaches 2300 PA over the 4 years, an additional 2 year 40 mil (20, 20) option automatically kicks in. Bringing the total potential of the deal to 125 mil.

 

Why: Injury history, schmindury tistory. I feel comfortable with these terms, and I'd be happy to pay the extra 2 years of the deal if he stays healthy.

 

Lineup:

1) Jose Reyes SS

2) Coco Crisp CF

3) David Wright 3B

4) Ike Davis 1B

5) Carlos Quentin RF

6) Josh Reddick LF

7) Yasmani Grandal C

8) Ruben Tejada 2B

 

 

Rotation

SP) Jake Peavy

SP) Gavin Floyd

SP) RA Dickey

SP) Jon Niese

SP) Bronson Arroyo

 

Name                                                           2012 Est. WAR        2012 Salary

Yasmani Grandal

2

0.45

Ike Davis

3.5

0.45

Ruben Tejada

2

0.45

Jose Reyes

4.5

20

David Wright

3.5

15

Josh Reddick

2.5

0.45

Coco Crisp

2.2

5

Carlos Quentin

2

6

Ryan Lavarnway

1

0.45

Justin Turner

0.5

0.45

Endy Chavez

1

1.5

Nick Evans

0.2

0.45

Jake Peavy

3

17

Gavin Floyd

4

7

RA Dickey

2

4.5

Jon Niese

2.5

0.45

Bronson Arroyo

1

3

Michael Bowden

0

0.45

Bobby Parnell

0.2

0.45

Manny Acosta

0.2

4

DJ Carrasco

0

1.2

Franklin Morales

0.5

0.45

Tim Byrdak

0.2

1

Jesse Crain

1

4.5

Joe Nathan

2

5


41.5

104.65 mil

 

 

 

Additions:

1) Josh Reddick

2) Ryan Lavarnway

3) Gavin Floyd

4) Jake Peavy

5) Carlos Quentin

6) Yasmani Grandal

7) Franklin Morales

8) Jesse Crain

9) Michael Bowden

10) Coco Crisp

11) Endy Chavez

 

Losses

1) Josh Thole

2) Johan Santana

3) Daniel Murphy

4) Lucas Duda

5) Mike Pelfrey

6) Angel Pagan

7) Jordanny Valdespin

8) Cesar Puello

9) Jason Bay

10)Darrell Ceciliani

11) Jefry Marte

 

 

Management:

1) I'd platoon Lavarnway & Grandal, I could easily start one of the 2 in the minors. Both have the gloves to play behind the dish. Best to keep them healthy. Also thought of dealing one of them for BJ Upton instead of signing Crisp. But the idea of having to sign Upton after this season wasn't appealing.

2) I'd let Tejada/Havens battle for the 2b spot in Spring Training. Hell throw Turner in the battle, but he's not in my long term plans.

3) If Quentin goes down, there is space for Kirk to come up.

4) Harvey has plenty of room to come up with Arroyo as a 5th starter. There's only 3 mil tied in him for 2012/2013 so I have no qualms with giving Harvey some of his starts toward the end of the year.

Also, pitchers such as Gee, Stinson, Schwinden, etc, can all come up in case of injury.

Finally, for all the moves, we maintain our top 6 prospects:

Familia

Wheeler

Harvey

Flores

Kirk

Havens

 

This is my dream for the Mets. It doesn't defy logic, only tendencies.

 

 

Guaranteed Payroll Commitments:

2013:

1) Jose Reyes - 20 mil

 

2) Jesse Crain - 4.5 mil

3) Coco Crisp- 5 mil

This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions, reasoning skills, or attention to grammar and usage rules held by the editors of this site.

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