I'm going to get right into it.
The Mets current roster has a few holes I'd like to address:
1) Crappy Long Term Payroll Commitments
via mopupduty.com
2) Inconsistent (that's the nicest way I can put it) Starting pitching performances
3) Poor Back End of the Bullpen
Well let's fix the problem.
DEALLZZZ:
1) Daniel Murphy, Jordanny Valdespin, Cesar Puello for Yasmani Grandal, & Bronson Arroyo (Reds eat all 15 mil of the deferred money + 7.5 mil of 13.5 for 2012 & 2013 contract. = Mets Pay Arroyo 3 mil in 2012 & 2013)
via web.minorleaguebaseball.com
Why this is Totally is plausible and sensible for both teams:
Scott Rolen put up a .293 wOBA last year. He'll be 36 by opening day next year. He's under contract for 6.5 mil for 2012 which will be impossible to move before the deadline. Brandon Phillips is facing a club option of 12 mil for 2012 as well. Murphy gives the Reds a bat at 3B or 2B if they're not comfortable with going forth with Francisco or giving Phillips the money. In addition, they deal Arroyo which they've been trying to do for years.They pick up 2 solid prospects one who can potentially make an impact in 2012 and another with a very high ceiling.
The Mets have settled for mediocrity at the catcher position since Lo Duca's great steroid fueled campaign. Grandal is a big college bat, who is MLB ready. (Through 170+PA's at both A+ and AA he put up a wOBA of .407 & 370). Arroyo is a straight up innings eater who up until last year posted at least 175IP and 1.5 WAR since 2004.
The Mets deal a blocked player and lower level blocked prospects for The Reds' blocked catcher and 5th starter.
2) Gavin Floyd, Carlos Quentin, Jake Peavy, Jesse Crain for Jason Bay, Mike Pelfrey, Angel Pagan, Lucas Duda, Darrell Ceciliani, Jefry Marte
via a.espncdn.com
via www.mlb4all.com
THE GREAATTTT OVERHAUUUULLLL...
Why this actually works:
First part of the deal is a salary swap. Peavy and Bay make the same money with Bay's deal one year longer. Bay is actually an upgrade over the White Sox current LF, Juan Pierre. Peavy hasn't pitched more than 111 IP in any of the past 3 years. His lack of time on the field makes the salary tough to pay for Kenny WIlliams so he'll take a deal where he can go. He's injury prone to put it lightly, Bay, for all his perceived awfulness is a step up in Chicago and doesn't have any lingering injuries.
Pagan & Duda give the Sox upgrades over Alexi Rios and Quentin. Duda and Quentin are essentially the same player, (wOBA of 360 with mediocre gloves in RF). except Duda is 4 years younger which means 4 more years of cost control for Kenny WIlliams. A big plus for him.
In exchange for those 2 the Mets take back Quentin and Gavin Floyd. The Quentin for Duda swap gives the Sox a slight advantage given Quentin's injury history and Duda's age but the Mets kill with the Pagan for Floyd exchange. To even that up the Mets send Mike Pelfrey who should give quality innings in case Buehrle doesn't come back and also in case Stewart, Axelrod, & Sale don't pan out in 2012. Floyd would probably be used as trade bait this year anyway, as he is contracted for 2012 but only has a club option for 2013
The Mets also take back Jesse Crain who solidifies holes in their middle relief. And if Kenny isn't happy with these terms, the Mets also throw in Darrell Ceciliani & Jefry Marte. Both high ceiling players who could do well in Chicago's depleted system. Furthermore, the option of the DH expands possibilities for Bay & Duda.
3) Johan Santana & Josh Thole for Ryan Lavarnway, Josh Reddick, Michael Bowden & Franklin Morales.
via a.espncdn.com
via nbchardballtalk.files.wordpress.com
Why this trade works for both teams.
Red Sox nation is panicking, and they're cleaning house. They lack starting pitching with Lackey now out and Wakefield & Bedard at the back end of their rotation. CJ Wilson is the one big name in free agency, and the competition for him is sure to be ridiculous. But here come the Mets sending over Johan Santana, a top of the line starter who should be fully healthy heading into 2012.
In addition the Sox get Thole, who is cost controlled, durable, and should be a serviceable backup to Salty.
For that package the Mets take Lavarnway, a blocked catcher who would move to DH, Josh Reddick, a blocked Outfielder, Morales, a solid, but occasionally wild hard throwing lefty, and Bowden, a replacement level reliever who has been need of a change of scenery.
It really comes down to valuing Santana. At this point, I consider Santana to be a top-flight starter, who should put up a 3.5-4.5 WAR season in 2012, especially in Boston. Morales & Bowden have little value. (neither has put up more than .5 WAR since becoming relievers.) Reddick is a solid starter but with Kalish also in the system, his departure is not unthinkable. Lavarnway would be shifted to DH in Boston but his bat is not guaranteed for 2012, and given Boston, they'd probably prefer to acquire a veteran (Carlos Beltran?) for that position.
This deal will probably be the most controversial, but I think it makes sense considering the hysteria in Boston, the departure of Theo, and their depth at all positions except Starting Pitching.
4) Sign Coco Crisp
via media.mlive.com
Terms: 2 year deal 13 million total + 6 mil Club option for 2014
2012: 5 mil
2013: 5 mil
Why: Fills the void at CF, Has averaged 2 WAR the past 3 years. Has a 3 year UzR average of +2. ....The Hair.
5) Sign Joe Nathan
via www.mlb4all.com
Terms: 1 year 5 mil deal with 60 Appearances incentive escalating the deal to 8 mil.
He's a closer, I think he'll bounce back from injury. Do you really prefer Frank Francisco?
6) Sign Endy Chavez
Terms: 1 year 1.5 mil deal with club option for 2013 worth 2 mil.
Why: You asked why? Get out
Offer arbitration to Manny Acosta,
Don't offer arbitration to: Taylor Buhholz
Oh and....
7) Resign Jose Reyes
Terms:
4 years guaranteed for 85 mil ( 20, 20, 22, 23). If Reyes reaches 2300 PA over the 4 years, an additional 2 year 40 mil (20, 20) option automatically kicks in. Bringing the total potential of the deal to 125 mil.
Why: Injury history, schmindury tistory. I feel comfortable with these terms, and I'd be happy to pay the extra 2 years of the deal if he stays healthy.
Lineup:
1) Jose Reyes SS
2) Coco Crisp CF
3) David Wright 3B
4) Ike Davis 1B
5) Carlos Quentin RF
6) Josh Reddick LF
7) Yasmani Grandal C
8) Ruben Tejada 2B
Rotation
SP) Jake Peavy
SP) Gavin Floyd
SP) RA Dickey
SP) Jon Niese
SP) Bronson Arroyo
Name 2012 Est. WAR 2012 Salary
|
Yasmani Grandal |
2 |
0.45 |
|
Ike Davis |
3.5 |
0.45 |
|
Ruben Tejada |
2 |
0.45 |
|
Jose Reyes |
4.5 |
20 |
|
David Wright |
3.5 |
15 |
|
Josh Reddick |
2.5 |
0.45 |
|
Coco Crisp |
2.2 |
5 |
|
Carlos Quentin |
2 |
6 |
|
Ryan Lavarnway |
1 |
0.45 |
|
0.5 |
0.45 |
|
|
Endy Chavez |
1 |
1.5 |
|
0.2 |
0.45 |
|
|
Jake Peavy |
3 |
17 |
|
Gavin Floyd |
4 |
7 |
|
RA Dickey |
2 |
4.5 |
|
Jon Niese |
2.5 |
0.45 |
|
Bronson Arroyo |
1 |
3 |
|
Michael Bowden |
0 |
0.45 |
|
0.2 |
0.45 |
|
|
Manny Acosta |
0.2 |
4 |
|
DJ Carrasco |
0 |
1.2 |
|
Franklin Morales |
0.5 |
0.45 |
|
0.2 |
1 |
|
|
Jesse Crain |
1 |
4.5 |
|
Joe Nathan |
2 |
5 |
|
41.5 |
104.65 mil |
Additions:
1) Josh Reddick
2) Ryan Lavarnway
3) Gavin Floyd
4) Jake Peavy
5) Carlos Quentin
6) Yasmani Grandal
7) Franklin Morales
8) Jesse Crain
9) Michael Bowden
10) Coco Crisp
11) Endy Chavez
Losses
1) Josh Thole
2) Johan Santana
3) Daniel Murphy
4) Lucas Duda
5) Mike Pelfrey
6) Angel Pagan
7) Jordanny Valdespin
8) Cesar Puello
9) Jason Bay
10)Darrell Ceciliani
11) Jefry Marte
Management:
1) I'd platoon Lavarnway & Grandal, I could easily start one of the 2 in the minors. Both have the gloves to play behind the dish. Best to keep them healthy. Also thought of dealing one of them for BJ Upton instead of signing Crisp. But the idea of having to sign Upton after this season wasn't appealing.
2) I'd let Tejada/Havens battle for the 2b spot in Spring Training. Hell throw Turner in the battle, but he's not in my long term plans.
3) If Quentin goes down, there is space for Kirk to come up.
4) Harvey has plenty of room to come up with Arroyo as a 5th starter. There's only 3 mil tied in him for 2012/2013 so I have no qualms with giving Harvey some of his starts toward the end of the year.
Also, pitchers such as Gee, Stinson, Schwinden, etc, can all come up in case of injury.
Finally, for all the moves, we maintain our top 6 prospects:
Familia
Wheeler
Harvey
Flores
Kirk
Havens
This is my dream for the Mets. It doesn't defy logic, only tendencies.
Guaranteed Payroll Commitments:
2013:
1) Jose Reyes - 20 mil
2) Jesse Crain - 4.5 mil
3) Coco Crisp- 5 mil




















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