AAOP: Keith's Mustache Tickler
by sagecoll on Oct 31, 2011 4:42 AM EDT
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PrintI'm going to get right into it.
The Mets current roster has a few holes I'd like to address:
1) Crappy Long Term Payroll Commitments
via mopupduty.com
2) Inconsistent (that's the nicest way I can put it) Starting pitching performances
3) Poor Back End of the Bullpen
Well let's fix the problem.
DEALLZZZ:
1) Daniel Murphy, Jordanny Valdespin, Cesar Puello for Yasmani Grandal, & Bronson Arroyo (Reds eat all 15 mil of the deferred money + 7.5 mil of 13.5 for 2012 & 2013 contract. = Mets Pay Arroyo 3 mil in 2012 & 2013)
via web.minorleaguebaseball.com
Why this is Totally is plausible and sensible for both teams:
Scott Rolen put up a .293 wOBA last year. He'll be 36 by opening day next year. He's under contract for 6.5 mil for 2012 which will be impossible to move before the deadline. Brandon Phillips is facing a club option of 12 mil for 2012 as well. Murphy gives the Reds a bat at 3B or 2B if they're not comfortable with going forth with Francisco or giving Phillips the money. In addition, they deal Arroyo which they've been trying to do for years.They pick up 2 solid prospects one who can potentially make an impact in 2012 and another with a very high ceiling.
The Mets have settled for mediocrity at the catcher position since Lo Duca's great steroid fueled campaign. Grandal is a big college bat, who is MLB ready. (Through 170+PA's at both A+ and AA he put up a wOBA of .407 & 370). Arroyo is a straight up innings eater who up until last year posted at least 175IP and 1.5 WAR since 2004.
The Mets deal a blocked player and lower level blocked prospects for The Reds' blocked catcher and 5th starter.
2) Gavin Floyd, Carlos Quentin, Jake Peavy, Jesse Crain for Jason Bay, Mike Pelfrey, Angel Pagan, Lucas Duda, Darrell Ceciliani, Jefry Marte
via a.espncdn.com
via www.mlb4all.com
THE GREAATTTT OVERHAUUUULLLL...
Why this actually works:
First part of the deal is a salary swap. Peavy and Bay make the same money with Bay's deal one year longer. Bay is actually an upgrade over the White Sox current LF, Juan Pierre. Peavy hasn't pitched more than 111 IP in any of the past 3 years. His lack of time on the field makes the salary tough to pay for Kenny WIlliams so he'll take a deal where he can go. He's injury prone to put it lightly, Bay, for all his perceived awfulness is a step up in Chicago and doesn't have any lingering injuries.
Pagan & Duda give the Sox upgrades over Alexi Rios and Quentin. Duda and Quentin are essentially the same player, (wOBA of 360 with mediocre gloves in RF). except Duda is 4 years younger which means 4 more years of cost control for Kenny WIlliams. A big plus for him.
In exchange for those 2 the Mets take back Quentin and Gavin Floyd. The Quentin for Duda swap gives the Sox a slight advantage given Quentin's injury history and Duda's age but the Mets kill with the Pagan for Floyd exchange. To even that up the Mets send Mike Pelfrey who should give quality innings in case Buehrle doesn't come back and also in case Stewart, Axelrod, & Sale don't pan out in 2012. Floyd would probably be used as trade bait this year anyway, as he is contracted for 2012 but only has a club option for 2013
The Mets also take back Jesse Crain who solidifies holes in their middle relief. And if Kenny isn't happy with these terms, the Mets also throw in Darrell Ceciliani & Jefry Marte. Both high ceiling players who could do well in Chicago's depleted system. Furthermore, the option of the DH expands possibilities for Bay & Duda.
3) Johan Santana & Josh Thole for Ryan Lavarnway, Josh Reddick, Michael Bowden & Franklin Morales.
via a.espncdn.com
. 
via nbchardballtalk.files.wordpress.com
Why this trade works for both teams.
Red Sox nation is panicking, and they're cleaning house. They lack starting pitching with Lackey now out and Wakefield & Bedard at the back end of their rotation. CJ Wilson is the one big name in free agency, and the competition for him is sure to be ridiculous. But here come the Mets sending over Johan Santana, a top of the line starter who should be fully healthy heading into 2012.
In addition the Sox get Thole, who is cost controlled, durable, and should be a serviceable backup to Salty.
For that package the Mets take Lavarnway, a blocked catcher who would move to DH, Josh Reddick, a blocked Outfielder, Morales, a solid, but occasionally wild hard throwing lefty, and Bowden, a replacement level reliever who has been need of a change of scenery.
It really comes down to valuing Santana. At this point, I consider Santana to be a top-flight starter, who should put up a 3.5-4.5 WAR season in 2012, especially in Boston. Morales & Bowden have little value. (neither has put up more than .5 WAR since becoming relievers.) Reddick is a solid starter but with Kalish also in the system, his departure is not unthinkable. Lavarnway would be shifted to DH in Boston but his bat is not guaranteed for 2012, and given Boston, they'd probably prefer to acquire a veteran (Carlos Beltran?) for that position.
This deal will probably be the most controversial, but I think it makes sense considering the hysteria in Boston, the departure of Theo, and their depth at all positions except Starting Pitching.
4) Sign Coco Crisp
via media.mlive.com
Terms: 2 year deal 13 million total + 6 mil Club option for 2014
2012: 5 mil
2013: 5 mil
Why: Fills the void at CF, Has averaged 2 WAR the past 3 years. Has a 3 year UzR average of +2. ....The Hair.
5) Sign Joe Nathan
via www.mlb4all.com
Terms: 1 year 5 mil deal with 60 Appearances incentive escalating the deal to 8 mil.
He's a closer, I think he'll bounce back from injury. Do you really prefer Frank Francisco?
6) Sign Endy Chavez
Terms: 1 year 1.5 mil deal with club option for 2013 worth 2 mil.
Why: You asked why? Get out
Offer arbitration to Manny Acosta,
Don't offer arbitration to: Taylor Buhholz
Oh and....
7) Resign Jose Reyes
Terms:
4 years guaranteed for 85 mil ( 20, 20, 22, 23). If Reyes reaches 2300 PA over the 4 years, an additional 2 year 40 mil (20, 20) option automatically kicks in. Bringing the total potential of the deal to 125 mil.
Why: Injury history, schmindury tistory. I feel comfortable with these terms, and I'd be happy to pay the extra 2 years of the deal if he stays healthy.
Lineup:
1) Jose Reyes SS
2) Coco Crisp CF
3) David Wright 3B
4) Ike Davis 1B
5) Carlos Quentin RF
6) Josh Reddick LF
7) Yasmani Grandal C
8) Ruben Tejada 2B
Rotation
SP) Jake Peavy
SP) Gavin Floyd
SP) RA Dickey
SP) Jon Niese
SP) Bronson Arroyo
Name 2012 Est. WAR 2012 Salary
|
Yasmani Grandal |
2 |
0.45 |
|
Ike Davis |
3.5 |
0.45 |
|
Ruben Tejada |
2 |
0.45 |
|
Jose Reyes |
4.5 |
20 |
|
David Wright |
3.5 |
15 |
|
Josh Reddick |
2.5 |
0.45 |
|
Coco Crisp |
2.2 |
5 |
|
Carlos Quentin |
2 |
6 |
|
Ryan Lavarnway |
1 |
0.45 |
|
0.5 |
0.45 |
|
|
Endy Chavez |
1 |
1.5 |
|
0.2 |
0.45 |
|
|
Jake Peavy |
3 |
17 |
|
Gavin Floyd |
4 |
7 |
|
RA Dickey |
2 |
4.5 |
|
Jon Niese |
2.5 |
0.45 |
|
Bronson Arroyo |
1 |
3 |
|
Michael Bowden |
0 |
0.45 |
|
0.2 |
0.45 |
|
|
Manny Acosta |
0.2 |
4 |
|
DJ Carrasco |
0 |
1.2 |
|
Franklin Morales |
0.5 |
0.45 |
|
0.2 |
1 |
|
|
Jesse Crain |
1 |
4.5 |
|
Joe Nathan |
2 |
5 |
|
41.5 |
104.65 mil |
Additions:
1) Josh Reddick
2) Ryan Lavarnway
3) Gavin Floyd
4) Jake Peavy
5) Carlos Quentin
6) Yasmani Grandal
7) Franklin Morales
8) Jesse Crain
9) Michael Bowden
10) Coco Crisp
11) Endy Chavez
Losses
1) Josh Thole
2) Johan Santana
3) Daniel Murphy
4) Lucas Duda
5) Mike Pelfrey
6) Angel Pagan
7) Jordanny Valdespin
8) Cesar Puello
9) Jason Bay
10)Darrell Ceciliani
11) Jefry Marte
Management:
1) I'd platoon Lavarnway & Grandal, I could easily start one of the 2 in the minors. Both have the gloves to play behind the dish. Best to keep them healthy. Also thought of dealing one of them for BJ Upton instead of signing Crisp. But the idea of having to sign Upton after this season wasn't appealing.
2) I'd let Tejada/Havens battle for the 2b spot in Spring Training. Hell throw Turner in the battle, but he's not in my long term plans.
3) If Quentin goes down, there is space for Kirk to come up.
4) Harvey has plenty of room to come up with Arroyo as a 5th starter. There's only 3 mil tied in him for 2012/2013 so I have no qualms with giving Harvey some of his starts toward the end of the year.
Also, pitchers such as Gee, Stinson, Schwinden, etc, can all come up in case of injury.
Finally, for all the moves, we maintain our top 6 prospects:
Familia
Wheeler
Harvey
Flores
Kirk
Havens
This is my dream for the Mets. It doesn't defy logic, only tendencies.
Guaranteed Payroll Commitments:
2013:
1) Jose Reyes - 20 mil
2) Jesse Crain - 4.5 mil
3) Coco Crisp- 5 mil
This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions, reasoning skills, or attention to grammar and usage rules held by the editors of this site.
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Comments
Very interesting and original...if unlikely
Especialy re: Johan. If his rehab had progressed anywhere close to “as planned,” a deal like this could be done. However in the absence of ANY substantive positive indications that he can pitch at an elite level, let alone pitch at all effectively, I believe other GM’s are going to watch and wait. By necessity, we would be selling Johan at the absolute nadir of his value.
Now if pitches well, or at least gives reason for hope, he may very well be shifted at the Trade Deadline.
Yeah,
I mean, that’s really going to be up to how the Red Sox feel (hypothetically). To me, you can say that with any team in regards to injury, I mean look at how many teams are willing to throw 6 years guaranteed at Jose Reyes… At the end of the day, when the market is as crappy as it is this year for starting pitching, and you have as much pressure to win as the Red Sox do, you’re going to have to take some risks.
It would be a situation where the Sox would have to evaluate Santana in a physical, and if they were satisfied, the trade would go through. At that point, it’s about the market value and I think I evaluated him fairly. Obviously money isn’t an issue for the Red Sox, and the players dealt were blocked for the most part. That being said, I think it’s a deal that works out for both teams.
Why wouldn't they just go after Darvish or Wilson?
That way they don’t have to give up any prospects and the get a better pitcher.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
Few Reasons
1) Contract length: Either of those pitchers will mean a 5-6 year deal. Which will be 2-3 years too many for either pitcher.
2) Kind of Concerns me that you’re already calling Darvish a better pitcher. Or even a healthier one…Considering workload, I’m honestly not confident in him.
3) No guarantee you’re getting either, especially considering the lack of market for starting pitching this free agency. Competition will be ridiculous.
4) Yeah Red Sox are going to throw another 5 year 100 mil deal at an Asian pitcher…that way, Daisuke has friends to hang on the 60 day DL
Why is 5 years too long for the 25 year old Darvish?
And almost everything else you said depends on Darvish having the same career curve of pitchers who came to the MLB when they were 5-6 years older than him.
It kind of concerns me that you don’t seem to have concerns that Santana may never reach even average production again.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
5-6 years older?
Irabu – 28 years old,
Ishii – 28 years old,
Nomo – 26 years old,
Matsuzaka – 26 years old,
Igawa – 27 years old.
Yes I totally believe he will follow the same career curve as those before him. Having a solid debut but tanking in his 3rd season. He’s been average 120 pitches per game since he was 18. He has an injury history. No reason to believe he’ll be any different.
I have concerns about Santana. But he’s been resting for the past year which is encouraging. His velocity was about 90, maybe 91, before injury, Latest reports are that he’s at 90. I think he’ll have it back. 90mph Fastball with his circle change is better than most pitchers.
Darvish is twice the pitcher those guys are/were.
so even if he does steadily decline after 2 years, he would presumably have ways to go until he’s not usable.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
I guess I
Can’t really confirm or deny that: Stats & Scouting reports are really tough to compare when both say “This guy is the best pitcher in the country”.
It’s not really a steady decline….more of a collapse typically caused by injury.
Question: If Santana regained a 92mph fastball (his velocity before injury), would you still want Darvish?
With Santana's velocity already declining before the capsule tear (if this is incorrect, please enlighten)
I can’t see him getting it all the way back up to 92 on a regular basis ever again. His K/9 was already declining before the injury and that’s likely to continue after and that’s the problem.
And just ask BDMF for a run down of Darvish’s stats compared even just to Dice-K. Yu blows him out of the water.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
Let's look at those guys:
Hideki Irabu: In Japan, he threw 1102.2 innings and had an ERA of 3.68
Kaz Ishii: In Japan, he threw 1898.2 innings (including his time after he went back to Japan after the MLB) and had an ERA of 3.60
Hideo Nomo:In Japan, he threw 1051.1 innings and had an ERA of 3.15
Dice-K: In Japan, he threw 1402.2 innings and had an ERA of 2.95
Kei Igawa: In Japan, he threw 1244.0 innings and had an ERA of 3.15
Now, let’s look at Darvish: 1268.1 innings and an ERA of 1.78. That is not a type, so I’ll write it again. An ERA of 1.78 in 1268.1 innings. (and, for the hell of it, I’ll mention he has 1250 career Ks, giving him a career K/9 rate of 8.87).
Irabu didn’t have a very good MLB career, and neither did Igawa. Ishii was a marginal starter who, at the end of the day, accrued 0.8 WAR in four years here. Nomo was pretty good here in the U.S., as has been Matsuzaka. So, you have a guy who didn’t stand out too much in his NPB career (Irabu) not making it in the bigs, another guy who didn’t stand out all that much (Ishii) not really being good or bad, two guys who excelled having decent success (Nomo and Matsuzaka) and one guy who was pretty good in Japan (Igawa) not making it. And then you have Darvish, that none of them can really compare to.
And, no Darvish does not have an injury history. He hurt himself once, in 2006, because he used to throw a screwball. He stopped throwing it, and stopped experiencing shoulder problems as a result.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 1, 2011 12:48 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I mean I just googled &
http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/story/?id=324050
“Then there are the injury concerns. Darvish has had back problems in the past and sat out Saturday’s game against the Yomiuri Giants with a sore right knee.”
You said shoulder problems, now there’s knee and back", and this is at 23. Oh and he’s thrown 1268 IP + the ton more that Japanese pitchers throw in the offseason than their American counterparts.
Oh wait,..(taken from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yu_Darvish)
2009-
.On August 22, Darvish was taken off the active roster for the first time in his career due to injury. The Fighters classified it as “shoulder fatigue,” and the deactivation came after a career-worst start against the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks, in which he went 8 innings, but gave up 6 earned runs on 10 hits in a losing effort. He was reactivated on September 13 after recovering at farm team, but in his second start back a week later against the Orix Buffaloes, Darvish gave up a career-high 7 walks in 5 innings, even though he only gave up 2 runs. Three days later he was deactivated again due to a combination of discomfort in his shoulder and a sore back.
Darvish was activated again just in time for the 2009 Japan Series against the Central League champion Yomiuri Giants, and he pitched Game 2 on November 1. He went 6 innings, giving up 2 runs on 7 hits, and also striking out 7 Giants. He became the winning pitcher, and the team won 4-2. The Yomiuri Giants would go on and win the championship series 4 games to 1. After the Japan Series, It was revealed that Yu had stress fracture of the right hand forefinger. Darvish said he first experienced pain after practice on Oct. 28 but kept it to himself. Also, he was unable to fully use the lower part of his body due to hip pains.
Wow… Shoulder Fatigue, Hip Pains, Stress Fracture on a finger on his Throwing Hand,
And this is all after that little screwball story….
His performance is awesome, not disagreeing with you. He will not be worth it for anything longer than a 2 year deal. It always comes down to longevity.
Between 2006-Present
2006: 24 GS, 149.2 IP
2007: 26 GS, 207.2 IP
2008: 25 GS, 200.2 IP (League average 25-29 starts; 150-170 IP)
2009: 23 GS, 182.0 IP (League average 24-27 starts; 150-170 IP)
2010: 26 GS, 202.0 IP (League average 26 starts; 160-190 IP)
2011: 28 GS, 232.0 IP (League average 26 starts; 150-180 IP)
He missed considerable time in 2006, but stopped throwing the screwball and fixed that problem. Missing six starts in 2009, one in 2010- none of which ultimately skewed his season tally in starts or innings, in comparison to the schedules of other pitchers those years- on fairly ordinary pitching bumps and bruises does not an injury concern make. There are no recurring problems, no major problems, no surgeries, no lingering effects after the problems…
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 1, 2011 1:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Name me one prospect who has no injury history whatsoever.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
Strep throat in H.S. so he's out.
But seriously, if you are looking only for pitchers who have no injury history at all, you’re not going to have a staff.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
But Seriously
I know that, and I love Darvish. Honestly…but that’s not the point.
He’s the best Japanese import pitcher there’s been so far..I agree.
However, I as a GM would not invest 100 mil and 5-6 years. (Pretty close to what I’m offering to Jose Reyes, and he plays everyday!), for a pitcher who has thrown more pitches than anyone in the world at his age (Average start around 125 pitches + way more than American pitchers in the offseason), who has went to the DL for Shoulder Fatigue (noooo ya think?), and when EVERY pitcher from Japan before him has missed substantial time within their first 3 years.
All of that is just way too much. Boston gave Matsuzaka 100 mil, he’s been worth 45 mil. Even if he’s much better, he’ll be worth 60 -70 mil. You still overpaid by 30-40mil.
Ironically: Fangraphs put out an article today that re-affirmed my point… http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/dont-overpay-for-darvish/
I'm really not a fan of these plans to blow up the whole team
It’s kinda like cleaning out your attic and trading all your old crappy junk for someone elses old crappy attic junk. The difference being our junk still has some sentimental value. Your trades are definitely creative, I just don’t think I’d want to see all of that White Sox junk on our team even if it meant getting rid of Bay and Pelfrey. I just don’t think it would improve the team that much in end for me to do a bad contract trade.
To Me,
There are parts of this team that I wanted to keep: Ike, Tejada, Reyes, Wright, Niese, Dickey & Our Top Prospects. The others I could care less for. In regards to the White Sox Deal. It’s all centered around getting Floyd really. Floyd’s a solid 2, and would be our 1 last year. The other players swapped are really just to facilitate that. I think Pelfrey needed to go, I want to sell high on Duda, because I don’t like him long term. As I said in the intro, I think our biggest problems were starting pitching and long term contracts. In this deal, I don’t really improve the contract situation, but I add 2 top starters to a rotation that surely needed them.
Critique
I don’t think any of those trades are plausible as is; some more than others
The Reds trade doesn’t seem doable with Arroyo included, and with the Reds paying for the majority of the money he is owed. Remove him, and it seems more realistic. Or, that the Mets get Arroyo, but they pay him all the money that is owed.
I don’t think that White Sox trade actually would happen because there’s so many moving parts, and in the end, the White Sox are not upgrading themselves all that much. Peavy for Bay is a net neutral move. Floyd for Pelfrey is a net negative move. Carlos Quentin for Lucas Duda/Angel Pagan is a net positive move, but that’s mitigated by the fact that they’ll still have a logjam in the outfield and at DH- you know they’re not getting rid of Rios or Dunn, so they’ll have to juggle two more guys on their roster/bench and how to use them along with payroll concerns (Pagan, mostly). Jesse Crain for Cecillani and Marte, I am going to say that’s a net neutral move for them. They have a better 3B prospect in Brent Morel, so they don’t need Marte, per se; Ceciliani would be welcome. If they lose Crain, and move Sale into the rotation to make up for the loss of Floyd, that’s two holes in their pen they need to fill, which is why I see that move as a net neutral- they get two decent guys, but neither are relevant to the ML team immediately and plug holes that pop up because of their acquisition.
The Santana trade, that’s totally unrealistic. Johan Santana is extremely expensive, and there’s no guarantee that he’s even able to throw a ball at the Major League level ever again- and, if he does (which is more likely than he can’t, mind you) there is no guarantee that he does so at an above-average level. They’d trade Josh Reddick, their 4th best prospect (based on Sickel’s pre-season rankings), a B- guy, Ryan Lavarnway, their 9th best prospect, a B- guy, Michael Bowden, their 13trh best prospect, a C+ guy, and Franklin Morales, a guy who hasn’t exactly been terrible but hasn’t been all that good either, for a really expensive pitcher that is a huge question mark, and Josh Thole? I don’t think so.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Oct 31, 2011 2:00 PM EDT reply actions
Critique of the Critique
I’m convinced you’re overvaluing other teams players and under valuing ours. And I’ll tell you why:
1) Bronson Arroyo had a -1.3 WAR last season. The WORST WAR Oliver Perez ever posted with the Mets was -1.0……THE WORST. He’s coming off a season Worse than Oliver Perez’ Worst season. (I basically repeated the last sentence to emphasize the fact that including Arroyo in the deal is doing the Reds a favor.) Clearly you haven’t looked up his numbers, I’m going to disregard that first part.
2)
a) This deal would send Rios to the bench, which if you asked any White Sox fan, is where they’d prefer him (we had Oliver & Castillo, didn’t mean we had to play them).
b) Duda for Quentin alone is a big positive move for the Sox. Duda = Quentin – 4 years – injury history – 4 years service time. It’s almost as if they healed Quentin and signed him to a 4 year deal at the league minimum.
c) Sox were planning on giving De Aza major playing time in 2012. Angel Pagan is a MAJOR upgrade in CF.
d) Not really sure I understand your part about Marte,,,,Konerko is how old? If he actually pans out, he’d move to 1B. And it’s not like Kenny Williams has ever dealt his top prospects…
e) They’re rotation would consist of Buehrle, Danks, Humber, Pelfrey, Sale/Stewart/Axelrod. They’ll have no problem filling Crain’s spot in the pen.
It’s a large amount of players, yes. And? Contracts work out, No PTBNL, White Sox would have problems anyway with Rios & Dunn, and they are willing to bench them for much worse players than what they’re getting.
3) Major League Level?….How bad can he be? As bad as Bronson Arroyo?. I’m saying this is how I evaluate him. Obviously Santana would go through a physical to determine if he indeed still had top starter stuff. If he didn’t, the move wouldn’t go through. You don’t think he does, I do. I’m sure many GM’s are split just like us, we’ll have to wait and see.
Also, as a point of future reference. Please don’t use 2011 Pre season rankings as a basis for evaluating minor leaguers. I’m not going to burn you in depth on this, but it’s a bad practice, and suggests that you disregard the 2011 entire season. I mean, all I have to do, according to you is throw in Cory Vaughn (a Sickels’ B- prospect). And we got a fair deal….(meh)
Given My evaluation of Santana, the deal is fair. Morales is basically a left handed Parnell. Bowden is a replacement level arm.
Critique of the critique of the critique
Fair point, I didn’t realize he was so bad in 2011- a product of a huge HR/FB rate, since most of his other peripherals were more or less in line with his career averages at this juncture of his career. If the Reds wanted to get rid of him that badly, they’d cut him.
The fans might prefer Rios on the bench, but Ozzie/Williams were giving him plenty of starting time. Williams doesn’t seem the type of GM to let a guy making millions of dollars sit there on the bench- he got plenty of playing time, Dunn got plenty of playing time, etc. Like I said, Duda and Pagan are upgrades for them offensively and defensively in the outfield, but Ozzie/Williams already had Rios, Quentin, and to a lesser degree, Pierre, get lots of playing time as starters despite better guys on the bench- I don’t see them moving those incumbents to the bench.
Yes, Major League level. Santana hasn’t pitched in over a year, and is coming back from surgery that has basically ended other guys’ careers (Mark Prior) or severely diminished them (Chien-Ming Wang)- guys that were younger, too. He’s a huge question mark- is he going to have trouble being effective in the MLB like Mark Prior was? Is he going to be diminished like Wang became? How do his already declining stats make this surgery better or worse? If he is able to pitch again, and if he’s able to be a 2.0 WAR pitcher or so, he’s extremely expensive. Would you want Sandy to trade for, say, Barry Zito, who is older, has a few more years left on his contract, and is expensive?
Sickels doesn’t have any updated rankings for the Mets on his site, so until he does, the pre-season rankings are all I have.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 1, 2011 1:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Critique ^4
1) The Reds play in Cincinnati. They can’t afford to eat 8 mil. Their payroll is 80mil. They’re not spending 10% of that on a non-rostered player. As I said, they’ll be glad to get rid of em.
2) Pierre’s a free agent. That takes care of Bay. Quentin is gone, that takes care of Duda. I think a Pagan/Rios platoon is feasible. Maybe Ventura won’t tolerate Rios? Who knows!? Still think it’s a good deal.
3) Well he’s got a better track record, better secondary pitches, better mechanics, so we’ll see…Zito’s not a great comparison. Santana has 15 more WAR in 300 less career innings. As I said, wait and see….
4) http://www.soxprospects.com/
Step yo game up. & search around…I love Sickels too, but plenty of other serviceable stuff out there
Critique!
If the Reds trade Arroyo and pay to have someone take him off their back, they’re still accountable for that money (most of his contract).
Yes, Pierre is a free agent- the point was that for half of 2011 or so, he was stinking it up with the bat, and for the entire year, he was a net negative in the outfield, but they kept trotting him out there, most likely because they were paying him nicely to play baseball. Ken Williams, given past experience with those poorly playing guys making big bucks, they haven’t been cut and have been given plenty of playing time. Maybe with Ventura things change, but I have a feeling a lot of their albatrosses getting regular playing time was because of the meddling of Ken Williams.
Zito’s stats weren’t being compared to Santana’s. Their similar situations were, in terms of both being on the wrong side of 30, having a few years left on big contracts, and those years being relatively expensive ones.
I don’t like other prospect rankers outside of Baseball America or Sickels- Sickels especially for comparative purposes, since he’s the same guy giving out grades, always looking at the same things, etc- (or, for the Mets, Toby Hyde) mainly because I don’t know how credible all the random people who post stuff about prospects are.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 1, 2011 2:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Ahh
1) They’re paying about half. (7.5 of 13.5). This is 3.25/year, much easier than 6.75/year. Not going to quibble anymore.
2) ??
3) While we’re comparing with those parameters: Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia, Roy Halladay….yay pitchers!
4) That’s your call.. But yeah these guys look totally random…….no real credentials.
I like it for the simple fact that
look at all the free money we have for 2013 and beyond. That’s the real key.
Based on the title alone I feel obliged to comment (or cower in fear?)
I think you probably overvalue Santana in a trade since teams have no idea what they’ll be getting. Sure he could be an ace again when he comes back, but this kind of injury is uncharted territory. Also I think it’s going to take more to get Jose. Someone is going to offer him more than 4 years of guaranteed money. I like the idea of the incentive based contract in theory, but i doubt he accepts it. Getting rid of guys like Bay and (sadly) Johan would be great in my book, but I’m not sure some of this is feasible. I’ve always liked Carlos Quentin though for some reason, so you’ll get some points from me there.
Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?
by KeithsMoustache on Oct 31, 2011 10:23 PM EDT reply actions
Fair enough
If you think it’s a bit much of a haul for Johan, just take out Lavarnway & Thole. I’d still do the deal, for the same reasons.
I agree, I don’t think this is the best deal Reyes will get, but it’s the deal I’m offering. All I’m asking is for him to stay healthy and if he does then he gets his “Carl Crawford money”.
Hopefully the notion of a “home town discount” still exsists. I think with escalators, my deal is as high as any other, only difference is that it’s not guaranteed money, you have to earn it, which seems fair in this day & age.
I’m getting rid of every long term contract aside from Reyes’..I like Quentin too.
Thanks for the points, wasn’t trying to call you out or anything with the title, That must’ve been awkward to read….
haha no worries, I wasn't really offended by it
I’d love Reyes to take a hometown semi-discount like that, but my gut tells me he’d probably be slightly offended going only 4 years guaranteed, and the last thing we want is Jose offended. It should work as you say, where players earn their contract, but alas it hasn’t worked that way in a long time. Either way, an interesting take on the offseason, certainly took an outside the box approach.
Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?
by KeithsMoustache on Oct 31, 2011 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Meh, yeah It's true
I really hope we don’t mess this one up…
But thanks again. Really appreciate it!
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