State of the Team post 2011

Now that the Mets have completed year one of the Sandy Alderson epoch the time has come to make some overall observations. Looking objectively there are both signs of hope and reasons for skepticism, at least for the near future.

     On one hand it should be obvious to all serious observers that the team’s culture changed for the better in 2011. There was more hustle and heart displayed by the 2011 Mets than in previous seasons. The Mets finished 2nd in the National League in OBP and 6th in the league in runs scored despite a plague of injuries to their main offensive players and finishing at the bottom of the league in SLG, the result of a moneyball emphasis on hitting discipline (a long overdue improvement) Alderson made an excellent trade in dumping K-Rod’s salary and a seemingly excellent trade in acquiring Zach Wheeler from the Giants for Carlos Beltran. It’s also clear that the Mets under Alderson are finally investing serious money in the draft, drafting guys with high ceilings as opposed to safer, short term picks. These changes bode well for the long term. 

     On the other hand the Mets did only win 77 games and the prospects for a big improvement in the next season or two can appear to be limited. Basically there are two scenarios that would go something like this:

• Keeping the team in tact the way it is. Resign Reyes, hope Ike Davis can come back and continue to develop into a long term first baseman, hope that David Wright’s regression in recent seasons halts or reverses, hope that Santana can be close to the same pitcher he was before the shoulder surgery, hope Jason Bay can finally resemble the player he was before he came to the Mets, hope Angel Pagan’s and Mike Pelfrey’s 2011 seasons were statistical flukes, and envision the Jon Neise and Dillon Gee can develop in consistent starters while Harvey, Wheeler, Familia, and Mejia finish their minor league development. Stick with Lucus Duda in right field. Move the fences in to improve the general power of the team. Throw together another bullpen on the cheap and maybe tweak the catcher position.

     Whispers coming out of the Mets organization seem to point in this direction. It’s not hard to see why: not resigning Reyes would be a pr disaster. Wright only has one year left on his current contract (with a team only option) and therefore may not fetch a big return in a trade. Jason Bay is going anywhere and at the moment there appear to be no significant outfielder free agent market that offers a significant upgrade, particularly for a reasonable price. And with the payroll getting cut there isn’t money to sign a Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols. The Mets already have about $60 million locked up in David Wright, Johan Santana, Jason Bay, and R.A. Dickey. Add about $20 million if Reyes’ is signed. If the payroll is fixed to come in at $110 million it leaves $30 million or so for the rest of the roster. Major changes wouldn’t be coming and fans may have to accept another season with a .500 season ceiling (maybe slightly above if everything goes perfectly).

     Yet one wonders to what extent Sandy Alderson is willing go through another season with what would be still essentially Omar Minaya’s players.  Is there another possible scenario that would go something like this:

• Despite showing every inclination that they want to resign Reyes, it is quite possible that given Reyes injury history, the Mets’ front office won’t go above a certain price or length that another team may be willing to grant. Reyes not resigning would free up $20 million to spend elsewhere, perhaps to sign a player like Nick Swisher (usually known as a Sandy Alderson type)  whose option the Yankees may not be inclined to pick up after another awful postseason and still have money to sign another player or two. Or perhaps the offensive starved San Francisco Giants would be willing to trade one of their pitchers, say Matt Cain, for David Wright (both players are due to earn $15 million next season so such a swap would make financial sense)

     All the above is pure speculation of course but while the details are vague the general theme is not. History shows us that off-seasons feature GMs willing to handout outrageous contracts (see Carl Crawford, Jason Werth, Alex Rodriguez, Alfonso Soriano, etc). If Reyes received such an offer it’s hard to believe he’ll give the Mets a hometown discount. And a trade involving Wright, while probably unlikely given his current value and contract, should no longer be thought of as unthinkable. Either would substantially change the look of the team. Yet that would seem to be Sandy Alderson’s purpose.