AAOP trends, and why your ideas stink.
If you have been keeping track and reading through all the AAOPs that have been submitted so far, than I'm sure that you have also noticed quite a few recurring trends, anything from signing free agent X, or trading player Y, or non-tendering player Z. This post is merely my opinion and analysis of such trends.
Sign Jonathon Broxton or Frank Francisco to be the closer: I understand that there's a limited budget, and these are potential cheap upside arms here, but if I wanted to hand the closer role over to someone with a live arm who I have absolutely no faith in to close the game out, then why do we need to sign anyone at all? We have Bobby Parnell. And the rest of the bullpen has been too shaky to add more arms like these two. PASS.
Sign Jose Reyes to a 6 year/$120MM contract (or any equally short sighted offer): Look, I want Reyes to be a career Met as much as anyone here, but the idea of paying him near $20MM/year over too many years is just silly. I'm not saying that we should lowball him, but we can't go more than 5 guaranteed years on this guy. It isn't about sentimentality, it's about doing what is best for the team, and rolling the dice on a player whose value is tied to his speed and defense for six years... I'll make the Castillo comp. Imagine that scenario with Reyes, should his legs continue to betray him much like Castillo's did. Difference is Reyes will be making three times the annual amount Castillo did. Also note the fact that Castillo was only 34 last season, the same age Reyes will be in 5 years.
Sign Rick Ankiel as the 4th OF: This has been brought up enough times by other people, but it's true. He's very comparable to Jason Pridie, except Ankiel stands to make a few million more elsewhere.
Non tender Angel Pagan and/or Mike Pelfrey: Look, if you want to get rid of them, that's fine, but why non-tender either player when you can bring each back on a one year deal, and explore trading them? I know neither player will net a single elite prospect, but both players do have value, and if you can get something for them, that's always better than nothing.
Trade David Wright: While I'm not fully opposed to this idea, I just think it's smarter to hold on to him for at least one more year. Why? If we trade him this year, he's a one year rental. If we trade him next year, he's still a one year rental. I do believe that we can expect him to be fully healthy in 2012, and rebuild some more value, which should result in a better return next year, as opposed to trading him now.
Sign Javier Vazquez: This is just wishful thinking. He's going to retire.
Sign Aaron Cook: This one I don't get. Especially when most of the time this signing pops up, he's a replacement for Pelfrey... who is the better option of the two.
Sign Chris Young: Even on a minor league deal, any money spent on him is money being wasted. I'm fairly certain he's not going to pitch at all in 2012, or at least not until late 2012.
Any FA 2B signing: We have more than enough options internally to compete for the 2B job, and I'd rather see any one of the kids get a good look than Kelly Johnson or Aaron Hill hitting shallow fly balls and weak rollers all the time. I even saw Clint Barmes's name once. Are you kidding?
I'm sure there are other nitpicks, but these are just a few off the top of my head. Additions, comments, and your own opinions are welcome and encouraged.
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This one isn't accurate
Almost every minor league signing I’ve seen: Most of these guys are going to require a spot on the 40 man roster which we just can’t afford to give this year. I’m not opposed to depth, but I’d rather keep the Familia’s, Havens, etc.
Minor League deals do not place a player on the 40 man roster. What they give us is a more or less free look at a player, and if he somehow impresses enough in the spring to make the club he’s added the day before the season. That likely won’t come at the expense of a legitimate prospect, but more likely at the expense of a guy like DJ Carrasco, Justin Turner, Jason Pridie, or Nick Evans.
It's an easy mistake to make as I did that same thing.
You automatically think acquisitions go on the 40-man.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
Jose
I’d ordinarily agree with you, but if you do the math, at $4.4M per win over 6 years, that’s 27 wins, or averaging 4.5 a year. I personally find Tom Tango’s research convincing, arguing that speedsters age better, and that 21 wins or so for the next 5 years is a pretty reasonable projection. The 6th year, is indeed a problem, and projecting that at a modest 2 wins, we’re talking about 20 million in the red, or roughly 4.5 wins. So Jose has to beat a 21 win projection by something like 5 wins over 5 years. It’s not a good gamble, but I hardly think this is the albatross you make it out to be. I realize that we’d like to sign Jose at 92/5, but if you use the reasoning above, add some inflation in (wins per dollar could be 5 by the end of the deal), take into account a discount factor valuing wins today slightly higher (8% discount), $120/6 isn’t really that bad and could be something of an underpay.
You might save ~2 million by signing Cook instead of Pelf
It’s just more room to work with to sign Reyes.
Astro Travellin'
Pitching is a bigger issue than the lineup is
even without Reyes.
And nothing is being fixed by keeping Pelfrey or signing Cook or doing anything this offseason
Unless you want CJ Wilson…
Astro Travellin'
Nah, it's not.
Nor is it fixed by resigning Reyes.
Is it even fixable?
It seems like your plan is to spend nothing and just wait until next year or the year after that.
That scenario seems all too likely, though. It’s been too long since being a Mets fan was any fun.
Astro Travellin'
My plan wouldn't be to spend nothing
Not that ~$30MM would get much from the FA market anyway. And I’m not opposed to a Reyes mega-deal, I just have a cap on what I’d be willing to give him. Mainly that I’m not going to guarantee him 6 years, and I’m pretty confident someone else will.
More than anything we need a catcher that can work with
The young pitching. How much of last years pitching numbers can we attribute to Barajas, Blanco. LoDuca got alot out of Maine and Ollie. We need to at least get a Kendall or any veteran to school Thole on how to Handle a staff. That is an immeasurable intangible.
Undefeated is the new "Winning".
Duh, undefeated....
by The real Julio from Paterson on Nov 1, 2011 8:45 PM EDT reply actions
If it isn't measurable
how do you plan on measuring which guys have this intangible?
Astro Travellin'
Jason Kendall?
No…just no.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
You might know me as mistermet.
by Steve Schreiber on Nov 1, 2011 9:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Best bunting catcher to ever play the game.
by Putnan Prince on Nov 1, 2011 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Not an argument in your favor
There is no hope.... there is no future....there is only GRISSIONZ
The 2011 Mets- Rock bottom: We haven't reached it yet
Why not?
Aside from the fact that he is injured and might miss a good portion of the season, why not bring him in on a minor league deal or a few hundred thousand?
Bobby Baseball - The future of Amazin' Avenue.
by Bobby Baseball on Nov 1, 2011 9:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Even on a minor league deal, meh.
The guy’s been plain awful with the bat for years now (sub .300 wOBA every year since 2007) and the metrics say his defense has been a negative 3 of the last 4 years (2008 being the exception). If we’re going to totally forsake offense and look for a defensive option, why not just go with Mike Nickeas, who’s only going to make the big league minimum and may have some sort of even limited upside? Especially considering Kendall missed all of 2011 and is going to be 38 by season’s end.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
You might know me as mistermet.
by Steve Schreiber on Nov 1, 2011 10:00 PM EDT up reply actions
My biggest gripe is wishful thinking deals that ignore what other teams would offer.
I’ve seen several trades and FA signings that propose an offer that “should be enough” to get a player that is generally believed to be unavailable (or unwilling to move to somewhere like New York). While these might work in a vacuum, there are 28-29 other teams to consider, many with better prospects and/or more money to offer. Unless the needs and values match up just right on both sides, these deals tend to stretch the bounds of credulity.
No AAOP was a more egregious offender in this area than the Marvel AAOP. It is simply unrealistic to expect a single team to get that many superheroes for the league minimum salary without some serious pushback from the players union and the other owners. There would likely need to be some sort of draft system or an allowance made to the other teams so they could similarly bolster their ranks. Even if the mentioned superheroes would agree to their deals with the Mets, there’s still a universe of possibilities for the 29 other teams, particularly small-market teams with limited budgets. And don’t think for a second that the deal would be limited to Marvel superheroes – you can expect DC at a minimum to file a grievance with the players union, and you know what that means – Superman and Albert Pujols both playing for the Cardinals. Good luck getting past them in the postseason (Albert Pujols is, of course, impervious to magic, so there goes that advantage).
Come on people, let’s try to be realistic with these things.
by mttlg on Nov 1, 2011 8:59 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Ill trade Wright for a Wheeler clone
and shed Salary any way possible(Bay, Santana) and try it again nxt yr…..
Undefeated is the new "Winning".
Duh, undefeated....
by The real Julio from Paterson on Nov 1, 2011 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Easy to say
impossible to do. Trading one of the few marketable players on the team is crazy considering how much ratings and attendance are already off. Trading Wright may make the Mets better in 2015+, but it’s not for sure, it will however, make the team worse next year to no ones benefit. It’s not as if there’s a ton on the free agent market that can be had by reallocating his money.
Trading Bay and Santana, while a nice thought, is fairly impossible if all you’re looking for is salaray relief. It’s just not going to happen unless there is another GM as dumb as Reaggins. The only possible deal would be garbage for garbage, and even that’s unlikely.
The same
There were a few AAOPs other than mine that I thought were pretty good, but they had trades in them that just weren’t realistic, and I couldn’t get behind them as a result.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 1, 2011 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I love this post
Rec’d enthusiastically & lobby Ambient for GM. If not for the post title, then for his brash dismisiveness at the idea of resigning Reyes.
"RBI’s does measure something – Wins."
-Bayonne Mets Fan on MMO
by Dandy Salderson on Nov 1, 2011 9:07 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Fransisco, I can agree with
Broxton, no. The guy was an elite closer, and he stopped being elite because of injuries (the exact point he started pitching through pain, and stopped being effective was an outing where Mattingly left him out there to throw 50 pitches- Torre really rubbed off on him). He had surgery to fix his problems, so he shouldn’t suck like he did. I don’t think he’ll be as good, but if he is 3/4 of what he used to be, he’s still better than a healthy Parnell and Fransisco.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 1, 2011 9:21 PM EDT reply actions
This.
Broxton likely signs for $5M or less. He’s moderate to low risk with moderate to high reward.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
I'm still not going to just hand him the closer's role.
And someone else will. There’s a long list of names I’d take over Broxton right now.
On the Mets already, or in the current FA pool?
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 1, 2011 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions
And all of those names will likely make a good deal more than Broxton.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
By "surgery to fix his problem" do you mean gastric bypass?
’cause last I saw Broxton it looked like he was a size Sabathia.
by madisonmetsfan on Nov 2, 2011 11:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Uh, no
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 2, 2011 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions
FA pool.
I really don’t trust anyone currently in the Mets bullpen.
You can add Aardsma to that list now
But, anyway, what guys on the FA market inspire you with more confidence than a back-from-injury Broxton, or Bobby Parnell, who aren’t going to cost more than they’re worth?
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 1, 2011 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Joe Nathan?
There is no hope.... there is no future....there is only GRISSIONZ
The 2011 Mets- Rock bottom: We haven't reached it yet
I'll agree with this.
But I don’t see what’s wrong with bringing in Nathan and Broxton. (in fact that’s what I did in my AAOP.)
Not saying that’s what you said, Syler, but the OP is seemingly against Broxton no matter the context.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.
I liked Broxton in LA, even if Dodgers fans didn't
He fell apart eventually but was an absolute strikeout machine. For lack of a better comparison he was like 1999 Benitez. I’d like to see both here next year. I wish one was a lefty and we could try another Taylor/McGraw or McDowell/Orosco thing.
Mets, Jets, Islanders, Knicks.
GO RANGERS! Get Endy a ring!
If they're
both willing to go to the same place that would be a good move.
The OP says
That I’m opposed to relying heavily on Broxton to close out games. I’d take a shot as a middle reliever, but realistically, he’ll sign into a better situation elsewhere.
Honestly...
the only name that needs to be said is Jason Isringhausen.
At least with Izzy I have some form of confidence that he will be consistent, and get the job done more often than not, even if he is completely uninspiring.
Don't get me wrong
I’m not trying to talk up Izzy here, I’m just that low on Broxton. Should he join the Mets, I would view him in the same light as Parnell. An arm that I have a ton of hope for, but very little confidence in.
Wait, what?
You’re being serious? I mean, he’d be cheap sure, (~$1 million dollars or so, for a single year), but there’s a reason for that- he wasn’t particularly good.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 2, 2011 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
His peripherals were awful last year
Even when the BABIP and HR/FB were still on his side I was antsy with Izzy on the mound. He was worth negative WAR
Heh
My AAOP had none of these issues, except for resigning Reyes….But mine was an incentive laden deal with only 4 years 85 mil guaranteed. So technically none of these….
This puts you on the other end of the spectrum.
Why should we believe Reyes will sign for a deal like that?
Well..
because all details of contract negotiations are purely speculative and most hype comes from the player’s agent trying to get teams scared and overbid. Just look at the K-Rod negotiations. We don’t really know what teams are offering at this point…
I agree on the Reyes front, and I'm surprised so many people seem to feel otherwise.
And this is coming from someone that can tell you Reyes is truly my favorite player on the team, and he has been since 2003. You could probably figure out by my username that I grew to like speedy guys that are actually good, so I’m not just saying Reyes is my favorite because he was so good this year and I’ve forgotten David Wright exists due to his last couple of years like many people have. But even so, the one thing that would be worse than seeing the Mets without Reyes would be seeing the Mets in fourth place every year. Even if Reyes stays healthy, 20M for six years is a lot… especially if the payroll isn’t going to be rising from 110M anytime soon. It was never as fun watching the games whenever Reyes was hurt, but times like 1999 and 2000 weren’t too shabby. I’d love it to be both of course, but I won’t blame Alderson if he doesn’t sign Reyes to a mammoth contract.
"It ain't going to be pretty. No fine is going to be big enough. No suspension is going to be long enough." ~Gary Sheffield
Good post
There is a definite bias against incumbent Mets in many of these AAOP’s. Yes, Capuano, Pagan, and Pelfrey are not superstars. But they’re good values who don’t require long-term commitments. And there’s very little out there that’s better for the money and won’t require major resources (through FA or trades). The notion that people like Aaron Cook are going to be better, strains credulity (generally speaking, this FA pool for pitching is very shallow).
And we have a cheap, acceptable league-average 2B already on our roster who we can throw out there while we wait for Havens or Jordany to emerge. Signing some other average, older guy for more money is a horrible idea.
I don't think I'd categorize Cappy as good value yet
There’s a very fair chance he gets a multi-year deal for decent money. The SP market is terrible and he was pretty solid last year. I think the general consensus on Cappy is that he’s not the type of guy we want to commit multiple years to at market value.
by Stephen Schmidt on Nov 2, 2011 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I could definitely see the Yankees or Boston scooping him up for $8M per for 2 years
which is about $2M more than I’d be comfortable paying.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
Keep Reyes, Trade Wilpon.

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