What would it take in prospects to trade for?....

by Ken FS on Nov 10, 2011 12:01 AM EST

I feel that there is a disagreement, as shown in the AAOP's, over what it would take in terms of prospects/players for the Mets to trade for certain players on the trade market and/or rumored to be on the Hot Stove. I'm going to post what I think is a reasonable haul for certain players, and if anyone has anyone else to add, do so in the comments for further discussion. My goal is to get a general consensus from the Amazin' Avenue community on player value on the trade market.

Let's begin with a few players off the top of my head.

Wade Davis: I think Josh Thole straight up might get it done. Maybe throw in a low-level prospect?

Yasmani Grandal: From what I've seen in the AAOP's, there are differences in trade value of Grandal. In my AAOP, I packaged Grandal and Alonso in a deal for Pelfrey, Valdespin, and a pitching prospect like Carson, Cohoon, Schwinden, or Allen. However, I've seen AAOP deals where we trade four prospects for just Grandal. Jim Bowden suggested that Wilmer Flores would be a good centerpiece in a trade for Grandal, I actually would be in favor of if that were to occur. One thing is for certain, we all want him in the organization.

Jake Peavy: Jason Bay and F!, plus cash should do the trick

Anyone other ideas for player values?

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an interesting question in general

but on a side note, why would we want to trade Bay F! and Cash for another awful contract?

Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?

by KeithsMoustache on Nov 10, 2011 12:17 AM EST reply actions

because Peavy

has a greater chance of reverting back to Cy Young form than Bay has of regaining his former status as a legitimate threat in the middle of the order. Peavy’s xFIP was much lower than his ERA, and a return to the National League in a pitcher friendly ballpark would help him, and help us.

by Ken FS on Nov 10, 2011 12:58 AM EST up reply actions

Peavy's also only got one guaranteed year on his contract.

Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
You might know me as mistermet.

by Steve Schreiber on Nov 10, 2011 1:02 AM EST up reply actions

that is true, thought it was 2, just looked it up

still, i feel like we’re paying a lot just to get rid of Bay. Peavy probably would be ok, but i’m just not wild about the idea.

Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?

by KeithsMoustache on Nov 10, 2011 1:04 AM EST up reply actions

i feel like a pitcher

is a better place to hid an oversized contract.

With Bay, you need to play him everyday for a while to see if he has it back. You cant bench him, cause that will only have an adverse effect on his psych and on his trade value.

With a pitcher, besides the fact that they only pitch in 1/5 of the games, if they are not pitching well, you can take them out of the game. Its easier to justify skipping a turn in a rotation. You can move them to the bullpen.

Lots more options if Peavy was the mets problem over bay being the problem.

And the 1 year less of a contract to boot.

I think it was Bobby V who said: "You are never as good as you are when you are at your best, and you are not as bad as when you are at your worst."

Like the really funny uncle with a healthy bourbon habit who matches every brilliant Thanksgiving story with one or two ill-advised racist jokes or boob grabs, we’re stuck with Melo. So we might as well learn to love him — quirks and all. http://knickerblogger.net/2011-report-card-carmelo-anthony/

by gbaked on Nov 10, 2011 12:36 PM EST up reply actions

yeah but it's exactly as you say, hiding an oversized contract, not getting rid of one

It doesn’t do anything long term, if we throw in money, it doesn’t save us that much, and even giving up a guy like F! along with all of this seems like a lot of effort just to make it LOOK like we’re not wasting money

Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?

by KeithsMoustache on Nov 10, 2011 2:00 PM EST up reply actions

i dont know bout that

it IS getting rid of it a year earlier.

Bay is unhidable. If he is on the team, he is going to need to be in the lineup almost every day.

Peavy is hidable. As I laid out earlier.

Pitchers are somewhat interchangeable among roster spots (you have 12 pitchers, and hypothetically any one of them can pitch in any of the “positions.” That is ignoring the fact that ability may prevent it in some cases, but for the most part… a starting pitcher will be able to be hid in the bullpen as a long man, as a situational releiver or even as a late inning guy… plus he can be the #5 starter).

Position players really are not. You can put them in maybe 3-4 different spots, if that player is particularly diverse… but for the most part they can only play in 1 or 2 spots. And being moved to the bench is not like being moved to the bullpen.

I think it was Bobby V who said: "You are never as good as you are when you are at your best, and you are not as bad as when you are at your worst."

by gbaked on Nov 10, 2011 4:09 PM EST up reply actions

we get rid of it a year earlier, at the cost of a prospect, and we spend a ton of money covering Bays contract

Is getting rid of Bay such a high priority we should be giving away a prospect (Even one as oft-injured as F!) just for the sake of getting rid of him a year earlier?

Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?

by KeithsMoustache on Nov 10, 2011 4:27 PM EST up reply actions

With the $16 million saved, we can go very overslot in the draft

We could add $6 million to about that amount spent this past draft. That would give us a $12 million draft budget. That could easily compensate for the loss of F!. And we would have $10 million left.

__________________________________________________
"He who gets the best players usually wins" - Bobby Bowden

by Russ on Nov 10, 2011 4:42 PM EST up reply actions

by my calculations we'd save at most 14 mil

and less if we send cash. Assuming we send something like 5 mil along, we save 9 million dollars over 2 years. The question then becomes, is giving up fernando martinez worth 9 million dollars. Thats certainly something that can be debated either way given his injury record vs his potential, but a deal like this gives me pause personally

Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?

by KeithsMoustache on Nov 10, 2011 7:42 PM EST up reply actions

I understand your reservations

Under different circumstances I would not advocate such a trade. If, however, moving Bay with F!, but not cash, gives the Mets financial wiggle room to rebuild without gutting the team, then I’m all for it.

__________________________________________________
"He who gets the best players usually wins" - Bobby Bowden

by Russ on Nov 10, 2011 8:32 PM EST up reply actions

if we didn't have to throw in cash as well i'd probably be less disturbed by it

and the fact that cash is the make or break part of this deal kind of makes me sad.

Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?

by KeithsMoustache on Nov 11, 2011 1:16 PM EST up reply actions

that is the question

idk, but i sure wouldnt mind it.

I think it was Bobby V who said: "You are never as good as you are when you are at your best, and you are not as bad as when you are at your worst."

by gbaked on Nov 10, 2011 4:43 PM EST up reply actions

But Bay's money is sunk already as it is.

He’s guaranteed $35 million over the next 2 seasons with that vest for 2014 looming in the distance. Meanwhile, Peavy is only guaranteed $21 million between his 2012 salary and the buyout for his 2013 option. The Mets could send the White Sox some money to even things out and still end up saving money in the end, enabling them to go with somebody cheaper (and probably better) in the corner OF all while filling the hole in the rotation with a potential top of the rotation level starter for a season while the young kids develop.

I think in terms of Jason Bay swaps, that’s likely the best one we’ll find at this point (unless he magically turns back into 2009 Jason Bay in 2012 and then gets dealt).

Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
You might know me as mistermet.

by Steve Schreiber on Nov 10, 2011 5:30 PM EST up reply actions

I think it'd take a lot more than just Thole to get Wade Davis.

Andrew Friedman is an excellent GM…he’ll likely get more in return than that.

Regarding Grandal, I could definitely see Flores as a centerpiece. It’d probably have to be more than that, since Grandal is nearly big league ready and offensive minded catchers are such a commodity. Frankly, the Reds might be better off hanging onto him and dealing him at the deadline for an upgrade if they’re in the race, rather than dealing Grandal for other prospects.

Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
You might know me as mistermet.

by Steve Schreiber on Nov 10, 2011 12:33 AM EST reply actions

I don't know about a lot more

Thole is a young, high obp catcher. MLBtraderumors labeled Davis as a back of the rotation starter in a recent article. I remember when Davis came up, he was mentioned with the likes of Tommy Hanson and Max Scherzer. Now, I know that Matt Moore is coming up, and if I were Friedman, with the small market team I have, would move to lock up Shields and Price above all else in the rotation. Davis is the odd man out it seems, and the Rays need catching. Thole by himself might not get it done, but Thole plus a mid level pitching prospect might.

by Ken FS on Nov 10, 2011 1:09 AM EST up reply actions

Thole isn't an upgrade over Jaso either

sure, 3 yrs younger and I guess his stats have been more consistent in their two MLB seasons, but they’re both weak hitting catchers with plate discipline.

"..."

by Thaddeus Ballpheasant on Nov 10, 2011 2:31 AM EST up reply actions

I once read somewhere that if you're not hesitant about the trade you're proposing,

It’s not a realistic trade. I would do all three of those without even thinking twice. Now Flores and prospects for Grandal I would be a bit hesitant on.

Inaugural AAOP winner.

by Evan_S on Nov 10, 2011 12:46 AM EST reply actions

Also,

This should be a FanShot.

Inaugural AAOP winner.

by Evan_S on Nov 10, 2011 12:46 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

It's more than the minimum requirement

by Ken FS on Nov 10, 2011 12:50 AM EST up reply actions

fanpost isn't really a word limit

it’s generally supposed to be reserved for for heavily researched articles, while discussion pieces go in fanshots.

Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?

by KeithsMoustache on Nov 10, 2011 12:51 AM EST up reply actions

I was debating whether or not to make it a fanshot

but it felt somewhere in between, because it ended up being more than 75 words, and I added my own thoughts and expanded a bit on the topic, but it’s more or less to see what other people think. If we can come to a consensus on what x player is worth on the trade market, it’ll give a standard to work on for the offseason.

by Ken FS on Nov 10, 2011 12:56 AM EST up reply actions

That's a good rule of thumb.

"I only wanted a few things out of life -- a wife, children, to play baseball and to hunt deer." - Turk Wendell

by Rey-O on Nov 10, 2011 3:30 PM EST up reply actions

Tough call

Wade Davis would be an interesting target. Still pretty young. Somewhat inconsistent in his results & stuff so far. Some shoulder flareups in the past. Rays have 6 SP including ueber-prospect Matt Moore for 5 rotation spots right now. Davis isn´t arbitration eligible yet, I believe.

I´d say, Jenry Mejia for Wade Davis straight up could work. Rays get cost controlled P with injury question but potential as a future closer. Mets get the healthier rotation piece. No, I´d not be happy about dealing Mejia but why would the Rays give up Davis for, say, Zack Lutz ?

As for Grandal, probably one of Familia or Mejia and a 2nd pitcher with some upside like Carson or Edgin.

How about a Jason Bay & Mike Pelfrey for Jake Peavy & Alex Rios package – with the White Sox throwing in an extra 5 million for 2012 ? All four players could use a fresh start. The Mets get a potential front-end SP and a better defensive OF. The White Sox save a little salary for 2012.

by Doob on Nov 10, 2011 1:08 AM EST reply actions

Very interesting

I’m loathe to deal one of our top four pitching prospects, but I’d do Mejia for Davis. As for Grandal, I’d be hesitant to trade Familia if I already did Mejia for Davis. Rios is a very interesting player, although my opinion changed of him when the youtube video surfaced of him cursing at a fan when he was playing in Toronto. Bay is the nicer person, but I know I can’t favor one ballplayer over another because of that. But Rios may have bad clubhouse chemistry from that…but I try to look at things from a purely sabermetric/statistical viewpoint.

Flores and one of Carson, Pelfrey, Edgin, and F-Mart for Grandal I would do.

by Ken FS on Nov 10, 2011 1:15 AM EST up reply actions

Mejia, Familia, Harvey, and Wheeler

should be off limits, there is no use in trading for the likes of Davis when Pelfrey can do just as well.

Still Amazin'.
Jose Reyes is a MET in 2012.

by piazza62 on Nov 10, 2011 1:24 AM EST up reply actions

I agree, these 4 are nigh untouchable unless someone is willing to give up something astronomical

Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?

by KeithsMoustache on Nov 10, 2011 2:56 AM EST up reply actions

Or unless we need to trade for Carlos Beltran

by Ownbey4Mex on Nov 10, 2011 2:51 PM EST up reply actions

Davis is cheaper than Pelfrey

and has more potential to improve, especially moving to the NL East, and his youth.

by Ken FS on Nov 10, 2011 9:21 PM EST up reply actions

So you're going to trade Mejia

for maybe a 0.5 WAR improvement?
And Davis might be cheaper now but he will get expensive in his option years. He’s signed to a 4 year/$12.6M contract that pays $1.5M in 2012, $2.8M in 2013, $4.8M in 2014, with a $7M club option in 2015, a $8M club option in 2016, and a $10M club option in 2017 ($2.5M buyout). We’re basically getting three years of a cheap #5 pitcher in exchange for a prospect who was ranked the 48th best in 2009 and the 56th best in 2010 by Baseball America. That’s a really bad trade for the Mets.
Davis is like Pelfrey minus 2 arb years except he’s never had a 1.5 fWAR season. Actually that doesn’t even accurately describe Davis’ inferiority as Davis’ career peripherals aren’t even as good as Pelfrey’s were last year. Davis’ career BB/9, HR/9, FIP, and xFIP are all worse then Pelfrey’s in Pelfrey’s worst season to date.

Save Jenrry Mejia!

by Ogre39666 on Nov 10, 2011 9:49 PM EST up reply actions

No way I'm trading Mejia for a back of the rotation arm.

Save Jenrry Mejia!

by Ogre39666 on Nov 10, 2011 10:26 AM EST up reply actions

My estimates

Wade Davis – maybe for Lucas Duda
Grandal – I’d say Matt Harvey + Mike Pelfrey
Peavy – Bay + $15M

by acerimusdux on Nov 10, 2011 7:29 AM EST reply actions

can you trade $15M?

for some reason I thought the max was $5M

I think it was Bobby V who said: "You are never as good as you are when you are at your best, and you are not as bad as when you are at your worst."

by gbaked on Nov 10, 2011 12:38 PM EST up reply actions

Hmm. For those guys

Davis: His value isn’t going to be that high. His ERA as a starter pitching more or less entire seasons (2010, 2011) is about 4.25, and his FIP is about 4.75. That’s not that good. His K/9 rate is pretty low, too. A guy like Josh Satin could probably get it done, maybe Satin + a low level prospect since Satin doesn’t have a Major League track record of any type, whereas Davis does (even if it’s not that good).

Grandal: He’s an elite prospect (career .303/.401/.488 hitter in two-years in the Minor Leagues) at a position that is relativity dry of upcoming and preexisting superior talent. Sickels graded him a B+ prospect, and thought he was the Reds’ fifth best prospect. Defensively, he has a strong arm, and has a 34% caught stealing percent- a number that has been rising since he debuted in the MInors. He had a lot (14) of passed balls in 44 games in A+ ball, and 5 in 42 games in AA ball- that means either the 14 was a fluke, or he figured something out and is more proficient, defensively- probably a combination of both. One of the Mets’ top prospects would have to be included in a theoretical deal. I think Aderlin Rodriguez would be a good starting point. Daniel Murphy might also be included, since the Reds might soon be needing someone at 3b and/or 2b. Throw in a Mark Cahoon for the hell of it, as he could be a theoretical back-end starter/long reliever/LOOGY.

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 10, 2011 2:19 PM EST reply actions

Trading Murphy for Grandal would be a huge overpay

A B+ hitting prospect has a value of $5.5 million. Considering Murphy as a 2 WAR player going forward he will have a value of almost 5x that amount.

A deadline has a wonderful way of concentrating the mind.-Professor James Moriarty
Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.- Former Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan

by Blame-everyone-else on Nov 10, 2011 6:19 PM EST up reply actions

Grandal will command an overpay due to the market scarcity of quality catchers

__________________________________________________
"He who gets the best players usually wins" - Bobby Bowden

by Russ on Nov 10, 2011 6:37 PM EST up reply actions

I wouldn't include Murphy in a deal for Grandal

Valdespin I would. a 2B with high potential, though I’m not happy with his plate discipline and low walk rate. Flores, Valdespin, and maybe a mid level pitching prospect (Cohoon, Carson, Allen?) for Grandal is a fair package. Maybe you can shoot for Mescorano somehow (the other, more highly rated catching prospect in the Reds system)?

by Ken FS on Nov 10, 2011 9:20 PM EST up reply actions

I'd trade Murphy for Grandal in a heartbeat

The Reds need a 3B. The Reds will only trade Grandal to fill a team need, and 2B is not a team need.

Despite present day valuations, I believe that Grandal has a higher ceiling than Murphy. Murphy simply does not have an elite ceiling. Also, his 2011 season may have been BABIP fueled, which is why I believe that it is important to trade him now.

Mescorano? Doesn’t hurt to ask, but I doubt that the Reds will trade him. That’s why everyone is looking at Grandal.

__________________________________________________
"He who gets the best players usually wins" - Bobby Bowden

by Russ on Nov 11, 2011 7:00 AM EST up reply actions

The Reds are also not in a position of desperation

They don’t need to trade Grandal- if no offers arise that blow the Reds out of the water, so to speak, they can very easily have Grandal start in AAA and not lose a wink of sleep about it.

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 11, 2011 1:25 PM EST up reply actions