Why I would listen to offers for Wright.
While I've enjoyed watching David Wright play for the Mets the past few years, and while he's certainly a very good player, I understand the arguments that it is time to listen to offers for him. He's been ¨the face of the franchise¨, but given the results the past few years, is that a good thing? The losing hasn't been his fault--he's given his utmost. But I've been thinking about the following points a lot recently:
1. Wright will turn 29 in December. The Mets control his age 29 and age 30 seasons, via his current contract and option.
2. The Mets realistically won't truly contend for the playoffs in this division before 2014, after Wright's contract is up. Maybe the end of 2013, but that would be if everything went our way, and when was the last time that happened?
3. His contract will come up for renewal for his year 31-35 seasons, clearly the decline phase for most players, and he will command big money. Do we want to pay for his decline years?
4. If the Mets trade him now (or mid-season if he's hot) could they get prospects who would be ready when our in-house prospects are establishing themselves and/or hitting their prime? Or young players who already have a foothold in the majors who can be established contributors when the rest of our prospects arrive/mature? (I'm thinking a Chad Bettis (p)+ Nathan Arenold (3B) type package or prospects, or another package based around a strong catcher and pitching).
5. When Wright says that his back is still stiff in the mornings, that makes me nervous. I went through the 30 year-old barrier a long time ago, and know from personal experience how nagging pains drag on you as you get older. How will this affect his on-field production?
6. These same arguments apply regardless of money available. Even if the Mets had the money now, I don´t think the parts to make the team ready to challenge for the playoffs in 2012 are available, either via trade or FA.
I recognize that the lineup would be weaker in the short-term without him (depending what we got back in trade, of course), and that there is an additive effect due to lineup protection and his loss might affect Davis/Duda/Bay. But that would be for years when we´re not likely to be competitive anyway. I strongly believe that the basis for any team is pitching much more than offense. The more top talent we can acquire to go along with Wheeler/Harvey/ Familia/Mejia/et.al the better the chance of having guys stick in the majors and contributing when we're ready to be competitive again. If Reyes goes (and even if he stays), we're in a rebuilding stage, a major-retooling stage, or at the very least a waiting stage, mostly due to questions about the pitching staff. So looking toward the future and trying to view this objectively, I think it is time to listen to offers for Wright, and if the right package comes along, to pull the trigger on it. If the (W)right offer doesn´t come along, hang onto him until it does. But at least listen.
This FanPost was contributed by a member of the community and was not subject to any vetting or approval process. It does not necessarily reflect the opinions, reasoning skills, or attention to grammar and usage rules held by the editors of this site.
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Why this is silly:
Wright’s value is at an all-time low. He’s not a 8.0 WAR superstar anymore, but a 4.0 WAR player still ain’t bad. This season, he was about a 2.0 WAR player, because of injuries. Trading a likely 4.0 WAR player after he posts a 2.0 WAR season- right before the team literally reshapes the stadium to be more condusive to his hitting patterns- would be silly. And, it’s not as if the Mets need to trade him, either- he has more time on his contract.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 11, 2011 2:55 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I posted more below, but...
I´ll respond to this directly. My post was about Alderson and dePodesta´s thinking about retention and acquistion of players, not about stats. They´ve often said that it´s not a good idea to invest big, long-term money in players over 30. If they feel the Mets aren´t going to contend during the next two years, they may view the best long term return on Wright as being a trade, rather than re-signing him or letting him walk for draft picks. And an actual return (trade now/soon) is better than a theoretical return (future draft picks/ trade return if his play improves) if you´re trying to build a team for the long haul. Long range planning isn´t about future decisions, it´s about the future of present decisions. Right now, I think that Alderson and Co are in long-range planning mode.
by Dave In Spain on Nov 12, 2011 3:55 AM EST up reply actions
But I think the point is that regardless of all of that
it still doesn’t make sense to deal him right now because they’ve got him under control from 2013. They can wait until the 2013 trade deadline if they so choose, should that bring back the best value. Whatever metrics you want to use, David Wright is coming off his worst big league season. David Wright is also the best tradable asset the Mets have (you could argue maybe that Jon Niese or Ike Davis or someone like that has more value at this point, but David was a superstar from 05-08. He’s performed at that level). It makes no sense to deal him right now when there’s a chance he could easily recoup that value early in 2012. It’s a similar argument that many made about Beltran last year. The Mets held onto him, gambled and won. It’s a lot less risky with Wright, I’d say. It makes no sense to jump to any conclusions right now because they don’t have to. You want to receive as much value in return as possible and you wouldn’t get that right at this second, unless some team totally loses their mind.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
You might know me as mistermet.
by Steve Schreiber on Nov 12, 2011 10:40 AM EST up reply actions
Oops.
under control *through 2013
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
You might know me as mistermet.
by Steve Schreiber on Nov 12, 2011 10:40 AM EST up reply actions
Some time ago I was appropriately corrected
on a thought similar to this. The point was made that Wright’s trade value being viewed as “down” is more semantics than anything. His proven skill level and the exuberant upside he possesses for a league starved of third basemen of his quality are not something that inquiring GM’s aren’t aware of. Its also the reason I’m pretty confident that Sandy means what he’s been saying anytime he’s been badgered with the questions about Wright’s trade potential.
"Intelligence is not a genetic predisposition. Think stupid!!"
by Wright of passage on Nov 14, 2011 1:10 AM EST up reply actions
That doesn't make sense
You can’t think about retaining players for however long, ten months, ten years, without looking at their stats.
That being said, my points remain. The team very well may be best served by trading Wright, but they still are not in any kind of crunch, rush, or deadline to do so. Trading a player who we all know is better than the generally underwhelming season he gave us last year is silly. Trading him now is not going to get you a better return than trading him a year from now, after he has a season where he isn’t hurt from two months, allowing his stats to return to 2009-2010 levels.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 12, 2011 1:47 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
But if he's a 4.0 WAR player...
You are already paying him for over 3.0 WAR there, at $15.5M/yr avg. over the next two years. So the surplus value there is still less than 1.0 WAR per year, for two years.
I don’t think anyone would ever trade for him and pick up that contract if they thought he was a 2.0 WAR guy; I think any trade discussions this off-season have still assumed he’s at least a 4.0 WAR player.
by acerimusdux on Nov 14, 2011 10:50 AM EST up reply actions
Irrelevant, as the montetary concerns were not my point
David Wright being traded after hitting .254/.345/.427 with 14 HRs and 13 SB and possible lingering concerns about his back is going to get the Mets a lesser package back than if David Wright was traded after having a better season, and/or proving he has no lingering problems from his injury.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 14, 2011 12:10 PM EST up reply actions
I've said it before here half a dozen times...
There is no reason for the Mets to be shopping Wright this offseason. You can still field offers, and if say, the Rockies wanted to offer Pomeranz and Arenado, sure, you have to pull the trigger on that, but it’s just not going to happen. You’re not going to get any sort of value by trading Wright at this time.
Also... fanshot.
Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?
by KeithsMoustache on Nov 11, 2011 4:42 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
eh...
it meets the requirements, and even has teh good grammer
One day, this team is going to kill me.
perhaps I'm a bit overzealous
I tend to think of fanposts as reserved for things that took a considerable amount of time to put together and/or contain significant amounts of research/analysis, not just a word limit. I guess it’s within the technical guidelines of a fanpost, but it strikes me as more of a chat fanshot type deal. I do appreciate the proper grammar though, and I agree with the sentiment that if the right deal comes along for Wright, I’d take it (but it’d have to be damn good).
Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?
by KeithsMoustache on Nov 11, 2011 8:04 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed
Stat research or proposals or whatever would put it over-the-top (not that there’s necessarily anything wrong with it now).
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Nov 11, 2011 8:25 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
yeah not saying its a bad writeup
Just look for a bit more depth in my fanposts is all.
Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?
by KeithsMoustache on Nov 11, 2011 8:29 PM EST up reply actions
I'm tired of reading things as if 2012 and 2013 have already come and passed.
Being a contending team isn’t unattainable. There are dozens of AAOPs that show it’s possible. If real life turned out like some AAOPs, we’d be fine! It won’t, but I don’t believe the next two seasons already happened. We can say they’re already done if Reyes and Wright both leave, though.
Astro Travellin'
by BlackOps on Nov 11, 2011 9:00 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
It only makes sense if another team overpays.
Like BDMF says, his value is at the lowest point in his career, so that’s unlikely. And Wright’s 2013 option can be voided if he’s traded, so the team trading for him would only get one guaranteed year. The Mets get two guaranteed years, so he’s more valuable to the Mets than to a team trading for him.
But as Ambient says, if the Rockies offered Pomeranz (or something sweet like that), Sandy should take it. I’m with you on the Mets’ outlook; 2014 looks more reasonable for contention. If the front office has a real opportunity to make the future better at the cost of the next two seasons, I say do it.
Reply to all of you
1. Sorry about the FanPost vs FanShot thing—I wasn´t aware of the different criteria. I´ll make sure that I post in the right place next time.
2. This was not an attempt to analyze Wright´s WAR and whether or not it´s a good time or good idea to trade him. It´s my attempt to look at the decision making process of Alderson and DePodesta as they approach the end of DW´s existing contract. They´ve said before that it´s not a good idea to invest big dollars in a player over 30. It dawned on me that, in spite of his boy-wonder image, DW is getting older: he turns 29 next month. He´s not a kid anymore, and Sandy and CO are well aware of that. They also have a reputation for looking at player retention and acquisition dispassionately. So whether it happens this winter or at the trade deadline mid-year, a trade wouldn´t surprise me at all.
by Dave In Spain on Nov 12, 2011 3:46 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
I commend you for thoughtfully
rationalizing what I selfishly did not want rationalized.
"Intelligence is not a genetic predisposition. Think stupid!!"
by Wright of passage on Nov 14, 2011 1:20 AM EST up reply actions

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