FanPost

2011 Mets, Against The Odds

Here is a look at how the Mets 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season. If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Mets games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4680 which translates to an expected win total of 75.82 games. If you do the same for my simulation of each Mets game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4819 or 78.07 wins. The Mets actually went 77-85 on the season. Their actual win total is sandwiched right in between both the Vegas and Sim win expectancies. Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Mets were the largest favorite to win. (NYN = New York, National League)

Rank Date Away SP Home SP Away Home Fave Fave Win Perc NYN Win Perc Sim NYN Win Perc Winning Team Away Runs Home Runs Total Runs
1 08-31-2011 Chris Volstad Chris Capuano FLA NYN NYN 62.894 62.894 62.842 NYN 2 3 5
2 04-20-2011 Bud Norris R.A. Dickey HOU NYN NYN 59.677 59.677 62.141 HOU 4 3 7
3 04-08-11 Jordan Zimmerman R.A. Dickey WAS NYN NYN 58.506 58.506 56.055 WAS 6 2 8
4 09-13-2011 Chien-Ming Wang Dillon Gee WAS NYN NYN 58.42 58.42 58.113 WAS 3 2 5
5 04-10-11 Jason Marquis Chris Young WAS NYN NYN 58.071 58.071 51.194 WAS 7 3 10
6 09-12-11 Ross Detwiler R.A. Dickey WAS NYN NYN 57.537 57.537 60.77 WAS 3 2 5
7 04-24-2011 Armando Galarraga John Niese ARI NYN NYN 57.537 57.537 63.876 NYN 4 8 12
8 06-19-2011 Tyler Chatwood John Niese LAA NYN NYN 57.537 57.537 60.813 LAA 7 3 10
9 06-21-2011 Josh Outman Dillon Gee OAK NYN NYN 57.173 57.173 57.815 OAK 7 3 10
10 08-10-11 Aaron Harang R.A. Dickey SD NYN NYN 56.803 56.803 56.524 SD 9 5 14
11 09-09-11 Casey Coleman Mike Pelfrey CHN NYN NYN 56.616 56.616 59.771 NYN 4 5 9
12 06-23-2011 Graham Godfrey Chris Capuano OAK NYN NYN 56.616 56.616 57.981 NYN 1 4 5
13 04-14-2011 Greg Reynolds R.A. Dickey COL NYN NYN 56.332 56.332 55.584 COL 9 4 13
14 08-09-11 Wade LeBlanc Chris Capuano SD NYN NYN 56.236 56.236 59.877 NYN 4 5 9
15 09-10-11 Randy Wells Chris Capuano CHN NYN NYN 56.044 56.044 63.723 CHN 5 4 9
16 04-09-11 Tom Gorzelanny Chris Capuano WAS NYN NYN 55.85 55.85 47.344 NYN 4 8 12
17 07-18-2011 Clay Hensley Chris Capuano FLA NYN NYN 55.85 55.85 57.718 FLA 4 1 5
18 05-07-11 Jon Garland Chris Young LAN NYN NYN 55.457 55.457 59.385 NYN 2 4 6
19 04-22-2011 Joe Saunders Mike Pelfrey ARI NYN NYN 55.457 55.457 60.074 NYN 1 4 5
20 08-29-2011 Anibal Sanchez R.A. Dickey FLA NYN NYN 55.257 55.257 51.774 NYN 1 2 3
21 08-02-11 Brad Hand Chris Capuano FLA NYN NYN 55.056 55.056 63.646 FLA 4 3 7
22 04-19-2011 Wandy Rodriguez John Niese HOU NYN NYN 55.056 55.056 55.679 HOU 6 1 7
23 04-21-2011 J.A. Happ Chris Capuano HOU NYN NYN 55.056 55.056 60.172 NYN 1 9 10
24 09-14-2011 Brad Peacock Mike Pelfrey WAS NYN NYN 54.853 54.853 59.21 WAS 2 0 2
25 04-23-2011 Barry Enright Dillon Gee ARI NYN NYN 54.649 54.649 59.75 NYN 4 6 10
26 05-19-2011 Livan Hernandez Dillon Gee WAS NYN NYN 54.649 54.649 53.798 NYN 0 1 1
27 06-02-11 Paul Maholm Mike Pelfrey PIT NYN NYN 54.545 54.545 48.217 NYN 7 9 16
28 08-11-11 Cory Luebke John Niese SD NYN NYN 54.442 54.442 54.698 SD 3 2 5
29 05-03-11 Ryan Vogelsong R.A. Dickey SF NYN NYN 54.128 54.128 58.439 SF 7 6 13
30 05-06-11 Hiroki Kuroda John Niese LAN NYN NYN 53.811 53.811 57.262 NYN 3 6 9
31 05-31-2011 James McDonald R.A. Dickey PIT NYN NYN 53.811 53.811 55.133 PIT 5 1 6
32 05-08-11 Clayton Kershaw R.A. Dickey LAN NYN NYN 53.704 53.704 55.931 LAN 4 2 6
33 06-17-2011 Joel Pineiro Chris Capuano LAA NYN NYN 53.704 53.704 57.066 LAA 4 3 7
34 08-29-2011 Ricky Nolasco Dillon Gee FLA NYN NYN 53.596 53.596 49.606 NYN 1 5 6
35 08-07-11 Mike Minor Dillon Gee ATL NYN NYN 53.271 53.271 55.991 ATL 6 5 11
36 05-18-2011 Tom Gorzelanny Johnathan Niese WAS NYN NYN 53.271 53.271 58.36 NYN 0 3 3
37 09-07-11 R.A. Dickey Brad Hand NYN FLA NYN 53.162 53.162 50.931 NYN 1 0 1
38 09-27-2011 Bronson Arroyo Chris Capuano CIN NYN NYN 53.162 53.162 58.46 CIN 5 4 9
39 05-15-2011 Chris Capuano Aneury Rodriguez NYN HOU NYN 53.052 53.052 54.445 NYN 7 4 11
40 07-29-2011 Dillon Gee Chien-Ming Wang NYN WAS NYN 52.941 52.941 52.936 NYN 8 5 13
41 08-30-2011 Javier Vazquez Mike Pelfrey FLA NYN NYN 52.941 52.941 57.843 FLA 6 0 6
42 07-21-2011 Jake Westbrook John Niese STL NYN NYN 52.719 52.719 55.134 STL 6 2 8
43 09-01-11 Clay Hensley Miguel Batista FLA NYN NYN 52.267 52.267 56.989 NYN 5 7 12
44 04-13-2011 Esmil Rogers John Niese COL NYN NYN 52.267 52.267 56.227 COL 5 4 9
45 08-01-11 Javier Vazquez Mike Pelfrey FLA NYN NYN 52.153 52.153 57.342 FLA 7 3 10
46 05-30-2011 Charlie Morton Dillon Gee PIT NYN NYN 52.153 52.153 56.922 NYN 3 7 10
47 09-15-2011 Tommy Milone Chris Schwinden WAS NYN NYN 51.923 51.923 53.337 WAS 10 1 11
48 05-14-2011 R.A. Dickey J.A. Happ NYN HOU NYN 51.807 51.807 51 HOU 3 7 10
49 06-22-2011 Gio Gonzalez R.A. Dickey OAK NYN NYN 51.807 51.807 49.039 NYN 2 3 5
50 04-11-11 Jason Hammel Mike Pelfrey COL NYN NYN 51.691 51.691 48.973 COL 7 6 13
51 09-08-11 Julio Teheran Dillon Gee ATL NYN NYN 51.456 51.456 53.34 ATL 5 1 6
52 06-01-11 Kevin Correia Chris Capuano PIT NYN NYN 51.338 51.338 56.103 PIT 9 3 12
53 04-27-2011 R.A. Dickey Tom Gorzelanny NYN WAS NYN 51.338 51.338 48.289 NYN 6 3 9
54 07-20-2011 Kyle McClellan R.A. Dickey STL NYN NYN 51.1 51.1 48.92 NYN 5 6 11
55 07-19-2011 Kyle Lohse Dillon Gee STL NYN NYN 50.86 50.86 45.311 NYN 2 4 6
56 07-30-2011 R.A. Dickey Jason Marquis NYN WAS NYN 50.739 50.739 48.731 WAS 0 3 3
57 05-25-2011 Dillon Gee Casey Coleman NYN CHN NYN 50.617 50.617 48.901 NYN 7 4 11
58 06-03-11 Derek Lowe John Niese ATL NYN NYN 50.249 50.249 57.7 ATL 6 3 9
59 08-15-2011 R.A. Dickey Aaron Harang NYN SD NYN 50.249 50.249 47.835 NYN 5 4 9
60 09-03-11 Dillon Gee Tommy Milone NYN WAS WAS 50 50 43.363 WAS 7 8 15
61 05-05-11 Jonathan Sanchez Mike Pelfrey SF NYN SF 50 50 46.393 NYN 2 5 7
62 09-02-11 R.A. Dickey Ross Detwiler NYN WAS WAS 50.249 49.751 49.294 NYN 7 3 10
63 08-08-11 Tim Stauffer Mike Pelfrey SD NYN SD 50.249 49.751 49.045 NYN 8 9 17
64 05-13-2011 Dillon Gee Bud Norris NYN HOU HOU 50.739 49.261 43.342 NYN 6 4 10
65 04-28-2011 Chris Capuano Livan Hernandez NYN WAS WAS 50.86 49.14 41.777 WAS 3 4 7
66 07-15-2011 Vance Worley R.A. Dickey PHI NYN PHI 50.86 49.14 48.013 PHI 7 2 9
67 06-12-11 Chris Capuano Kevin Correia NYN PIT PIT 50.98 49.02 51.137 NYN 7 0 7
68 07-17-2011 Kyle Kendrick Mike Pelfrey PHI NYN PHI 50.98 49.02 49.224 PHI 8 5 13
69 09-04-11 Mike Pelfrey Livan Hernandez NYN WAS WAS 51.1 48.9 44.643 NYN 6 3 9
70 06-11-11 R.A. Dickey James McDonald NYN PIT PIT 51.691 48.309 48.691 PIT 2 3 5
71 05-29-2011 Vance Worley John Niese PHI NYN PHI 51.807 48.193 56.625 NYN 5 9 14
72 04-14-2011 Jorge de la Rosa Chris Capuano COL NYN COL 51.923 48.077 48.677 COL 6 5 11
73 06-10-11 Dillon Gee Charlie Morton NYN PIT PIT 52.267 47.733 48.777 NYN 8 1 9
74 09-24-2011 Joe Blanton Dillon Gee PHI NYN PHI 52.267 47.733 49.72 NYN 3 6 9
75 07-01-11 Ivan Nova John Niese NYA NYN NYA 52.494 47.506 49.319 NYA 5 1 6
76 06-13-2011 Mike Pelfrey Paul Maholm NYN PIT PIT 52.719 47.281 43.862 PIT 1 3 4
77 09-11-11 Matt Garza Miguel Batista CHN NYN CHN 52.941 47.059 50.717 CHN 10 6 16
78 06-16-2011 R.A. Dickey Mike Minor NYN ATL ATL 52.941 47.059 45.275 ATL 8 9 17
79 04-26-2011 Chris Young Jordan Zimmerman NYN WAS WAS 53.162 46.838 43.941 NYN 6 4 10
80 09-26-2011 Homer Bailey Chris Schwinden CIN NYN CIN 53.162 46.838 50.935 CIN 6 5 11
81 09-06-11 Miguel Batista Chris Volstad NYN FLA FLA 53.38 46.62 43.114 NYN 7 4 11
82 08-20-2011 Randy Wolf Chris Capuano MIL NYN MIL 53.38 46.62 54.779 MIL 11 9 20
83 09-28-2011 Edinson Volquez Miguel Batista CIN NYN CIN 53.38 46.62 53.029 NYN 0 3 3
84 05-24-2011 John Niese Ryan Dempster NYN CHN CHN 53.596 46.404 46.999 CHN 1 11 12
85 08-05-11 Tim Hudson R.A. Dickey ATL NYN ATL 53.811 46.189 52.416 ATL 4 1 5
86 08-06-11 Tommy Hanson John Niese ATL NYN ATL 53.811 46.189 58.359 NYN 7 11 18
87 07-02-11 Bartolo Colon Dillon Gee NYA NYN NYA 54.023 45.977 44.845 NYA 5 2 7
88 07-04-11 Chris Capuano Rubby DeLaRosa NYN LAN LAN 54.023 45.977 49.663 NYN 5 2 7
89 06-04-11 Jair Jurrjens Dillon Gee ATL NYN ATL 54.233 45.767 52.343 NYN 0 5 5
90 07-06-11 John Niese Hiroki Kuroda NYN LAN LAN 54.233 45.767 49.029 NYN 5 3 8
91 07-05-11 Mike Pelfrey Ted Lilly NYN LAN LAN 54.442 45.558 44.7 NYN 6 0 6
92 07-31-2011 John Niese Jordan Zimmerman NYN WAS WAS 54.442 45.558 48.805 WAS 2 3 5
93 04-03-11 R.A. Dickey Javier Vazquez NYN FLA FLA 54.751 45.249 49.003 NYN 9 2 11
94 06-18-2011 Dan Haren Mike Pelfrey LAA NYN LAA 54.751 45.249 46.682 NYN 1 6 7
95 07-22-2011 Mike Pelfrey Chris Volstad NYN FLA FLA 54.853 45.147 46.912 NYN 7 6 13
96 07-23-2011 Chris Capuano Clay Hensley NYN FLA FLA 54.853 45.147 53.73 FLA 5 8 13
97 09-08-11 Mike Minor Chris Schwinden ATL NYN ATL 54.955 45.045 46.01 ATL 6 5 11
98 09-05-11 Chris Capuano Javier Vazquez NYN FLA FLA 55.056 44.944 50.277 FLA 3 9 12
99 07-24-2011 Dillon Gee Anibal Sanchez NYN FLA FLA 55.056 44.944 42.855 FLA 4 5 9
100 06-05-11 Tim Hudson R.A. Dickey ATL NYN ATL 55.257 44.743 55.038 NYN 4 6 10
101 08-16-2011 John Niese Cory Luebke NYN SD SD 55.257 44.743 44.113 SD 1 6 7
102 06-29-2011 Chris Capuano Phil Coke NYN DET DET 55.457 44.543 37.656 NYN 16 9 25
103 05-27-2011 Roy Oswalt Chris Capuano PHI NYN PHI 55.654 44.346 41.694 PHI 6 4 10
104 07-03-11 Freddy Garcia R.A. Dickey NYA NYN NYA 55.752 44.248 42.021 NYN 2 3 5
105 04-06-11 Mike Pelfrey Joe Blanton NYN PHI PHI 56.14 43.86 44.438 PHI 7 10 17
106 07-08-11 R.A. Dickey Ryan Vogelsong NYN SF SF 56.427 43.573 39.698 NYN 5 2 7
107 07-16-2011 Cole Hamels John Niese PHI NYN PHI 56.616 43.384 47.923 NYN 2 11 13
108 05-04-11 Tim Lincecum Chris Capuano SF NYN SF 56.803 43.197 41.291 SF 2 0 2
109 08-14-2011 Chris Capuano Jason Marquis NYN ARI ARI 56.803 43.197 42.609 ARI 3 5 8
110 04-02-11 John Niese Ricky Nolasco NYN FLA FLA 56.897 43.103 45.749 NYN 6 4 10
111 04-29-2011 Mike Pelfrey Vance Worley NYN PHI PHI 56.897 43.103 48.276 PHI 3 10 13
112 09-24-2011 Cole Hamels R.A. Dickey PHI NYN PHI 56.897 43.103 42.84 NYN 1 2 3
113 06-26-2011 Dillon Gee Derek Holland NYN TEX TEX 56.989 43.011 42.065 NYN 8 5 13
114 07-25-2011 R.A. Dickey Mike Leake NYN CIN CIN 56.989 43.011 45.495 NYN 4 2 6
115 07-28-2011 Chris Capuano Homer Bailey NYN CIN CIN 57.173 42.827 48.008 NYN 10 9 19
116 08-21-2011 Yovanni Gallardo R.A. Dickey MIL NYN MIL 57.173 42.827 48.376 MIL 6 2 8
117 07-27-2011 Mike Pelfrey Bronson Arroyo NYN CIN CIN 57.265 42.735 47.658 NYN 8 2 10
118 06-28-2011 R.A. Dickey Rick Porcello NYN DET DET 57.356 42.644 38.868 NYN 14 3 17
119 08-17-2011 Dillon Gee Mat Latos NYN SD SD 57.356 42.644 38.802 NYN 7 3 10
120 08-19-2011 Shaun Marcum Mike Pelfrey MIL NYN MIL 57.537 42.463 47.259 MIL 6 1 7
121 08-26-2011 Tim Hudson Chris Capuano ATL NYN ATL 57.895 42.105 47.086 NYN 0 6 6
122 05-26-2011 R.A. Dickey Carlos Zambrano NYN CHN CHN 58.42 41.58 43.046 CHN 3 9 12
123 06-14-2011 John Niese Jair Jurrjens NYN ATL ATL 58.42 41.58 48.77 NYN 4 3 7
124 07-26-2011 John Niese Johnny Cueto NYN CIN CIN 58.592 41.408 50.003 NYN 8 6 14
125 07-07-11 Dillon Gee Clayton Kershaw NYN LAN LAN 58.763 41.237 35.043 LAN 0 6 6
126 06-15-2011 Dillon Gee Tim Hudson NYN ATL ATL 58.763 41.237 48.488 NYN 4 0 4
127 06-24-2011 Mike Pelfrey Matt Harrison NYN TEX TEX 59.267 40.733 37.578 TEX 1 8 9
128 05-16-2011 Josh Johnson Mike Pelfrey FLA NYN FLA 59.432 40.568 42.796 FLA 2 1 3
129 07-10-11 Mike Pelfrey Matt Cain NYN SF SF 59.514 40.486 35.404 SF 2 4 6
130 05-28-2011 Cole Hamels Mike Pelfrey PHI NYN PHI 59.759 40.241 40.987 PHI 5 2 7
131 05-10-11 Mike Pelfrey Jason Hammel NYN COL COL 60 40 40.188 NYN 4 3 7
132 08-12-11 Dillon Gee Ian Kennedy NYN ARI ARI 60.08 39.92 35.479 ARI 3 4 7
133 09-16-2011 Chris Capuano Derek Lowe NYN ATL ATL 60.08 39.92 42.071 NYN 12 2 14
134 06-25-2011 John Niese Alexi Ogando NYN TEX TEX 61.464 38.536 38.547 NYN 14 5 19
135 05-20-2011 R.A. Dickey Freddy Garcia NYN NYA NYA 61.538 38.462 38.445 NYN 2 1 3
136 08-13-2011 Mike Pelfrey Daniel Hudson NYN ARI ARI 61.538 38.462 33.149 ARI 4 6 10
137 09-17-2011 R.A. Dickey Tim Hudson NYN ATL ATL 61.538 38.462 41.14 ATL 0 1 1
138 06-08-11 Mike Pelfrey Randy Wolf NYN MIL MIL 61.832 38.168 47.166 MIL 6 7 13
139 05-09-11 Chris Capuano Jhoulys Chacin NYN COL COL 62.049 37.951 42.075 COL 2 1 3
140 07-09-11 Chris Capuano Tim Lincecum NYN SF SF 62.049 37.951 37.448 SF 1 3 4
141 04-01-11 Mike Pelfrey Josh Johnson NYN FLA FLA 62.121 37.879 43.862 FLA 2 6 8
142 04-16-2011 Mike Pelfrey Jair Jurrjens NYN ATL ATL 62.264 37.736 47.49 ATL 0 4 4
143 06-09-11 John Niese Yovanni Gallardo NYN MIL MIL 62.617 37.383 46.603 NYN 4 1 5
144 05-01-11 Chris Young Cliff Lee NYN PHI PHI 62.687 37.313 30.945 NYN 2 1 3
145 05-21-2011 Chris Capuano A.J. Burnett NYN NYA NYA 62.687 37.313 38.311 NYA 3 7 10
146 05-22-2011 Mike Pelfrey Ivan Nova NYN NYA NYA 63.031 36.969 33.27 NYA 3 9 12
147 05-12-11 John Niese Ubaldo Jimenez NYN COL COL 63.504 36.496 40.769 NYN 9 5 14
148 04-17-2011 Dillon Gee Tommy Hanson NYN ATL ATL 63.57 36.43 40.004 NYN 3 2 5
149 09-20-2011 Mike Pelfrey Edwin Jackson NYN STL STL 63.57 36.43 35.62 STL 6 11 17
150 04-05-11 Chris Young Cole Hamels NYN PHI PHI 63.834 36.166 34.109 NYN 7 1 8
151 09-25-2011 Roy Halladay Mike Pelfrey PHI NYN PHI 63.834 36.166 40.039 PHI 9 4 13
152 04-16-2011 D.J. Carrasco Derek Lowe NYN ATL ATL 63.899 36.101 40.543 ATL 2 4 6
153 06-07-11 Chris Capuano Shaun Marcum NYN MIL MIL 64.093 35.907 43.079 NYN 2 1 3
154 09-18-2011 Dillon Gee Brandon Beachy NYN ATL ATL 64.093 35.907 34.89 NYN 7 5 12
155 09-22-2011 Chris Capuano Jake Westbrook NYN STL STL 64.158 35.842 40.12 NYN 8 6 14
156 08-24-2011 Mike Pelfrey Kyle Kendrick NYN PHI PHI 64.602 35.398 39.865 NYN 7 4 11
157 04-07-11 John Niese Roy Halladay NYN PHI PHI 65.398 34.602 37.216 PHI 0 11 11
158 04-30-2011 John Niese Roy Halladay NYN PHI PHI 65.812 34.188 37.185 PHI 1 2 3
159 08-23-2011 John Niese Vance Worley NYN PHI PHI 66.387 33.613 41.764 PHI 4 9 13
160 09-21-2011 Chris Schwinden Jaime Garcia NYN STL STL 67.532 32.468 30.34 STL 5 6 11
161 06-30-2011 Mike Pelfrey Justin Verlander NYN DET DET 67.742 32.258 29.482 DET 2 5 7
162 08-22-2011 Dillon Gee Cliff Lee NYN PHI PHI 70.238 29.762 29.731 PHI 0 10 10

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