Was Beltran worth it?

by Boz_Paladin on Nov 2, 2011 4:05 PM EDT

A popular opinion seems to be that Reyes won't be able to stay healthy and therefore won't be worth a 6-year $120mil contract. Let's compare Carlos Beltran's 7-year contract with Reyes' last 7 years:

Year	Beltran's WAR	Reyes' WAR
2005	2.7	2.3
2006	7.9	6.1
2007	5.5	5.8
2008	7.6	6.4
2009	3.0	0.8
2010	0.8	2.9
2011	4.7	6.2
TOTAL	32.2	30.5
Average	4.60	4.36
Price per Win	3,727	3,934

In the last 7 years, Reyes averaged 133 games played. Beltran averaged 126 games played (vs a career average of 135) in a contract that got him up to his 34-year-old season. A 6-year contract for Reyes would take him to age 33. Is it too much to expect Reyes to play in 133 games per season for the next 6? Given the lack of alternatives, I don't see that the Mets have any choice but to re-sign Reyes, give him the 6th year if that's what it takes. Beltran, as little as he played, was worth it, despite what Wilpon might think. Reyes will be too.

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Notes

Assumed $120mil contract for both players, Beltran over 7 years, Reyes over the next 6.

by Boz_Paladin on Nov 2, 2011 4:05 PM EDT reply actions

I like the analysis.

Beltran and Reyes have two different styles of play, though, which might be a notch against this argument.

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by JoeBighead on Nov 2, 2011 5:43 PM EDT reply actions

They both rely heavily on their legs

Reyes is more of a speedster and Beltran is more of an all around threat, but Beltran’s legs were a big part of his ability to play a superb center field and run the bases as exceptionally as he did. Reyes is a good enough hitter that even without elite speed, he should still be an upper echelon shortstop. And also, Tom Tango has done research that speed ages better than power, so should Reyes stay healthy, he should be a very good player in his early thirties.

by Evan_S on Nov 2, 2011 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions

This is a valid and great point

just would want more to read

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by astromets on Nov 2, 2011 7:55 PM EDT reply actions

I'm not sure that the specific comparison to Beltran means much because Beltran's past isn't necessarily predictive of Reyes's future.

But it is a good example of how premium position players are the best long-term investments.

by EricAColucci on Nov 2, 2011 7:58 PM EDT reply actions

Main point

I don’t think Reyes needs to play 150 games a year to have a chance to “earn” $120mil over 6 years. I think Beltran showed you can, if you’re good enough, create enough value even in battling through injuries. What we’d be asking of him is to go on the DL no more in the next 6 years than he has in the past 7.

by Boz_Paladin on Nov 2, 2011 10:04 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs

Good read

I was poking around with Larkin’s numbers and from ‘92 -’97 (33 years old) Larkin had cumulative 28.8 WAR. He was a ~30 WAR player for playing years 10-15. Up to age 28, Larkin and Reyes have similar numbers and through their first 9 years Larkin was a 36.6 WAR and Reyes a 33.4 WAR, going forward I would say Larkin’s #‘s would be a “best case” scenario but at 10% (the difference through their 1st 9 years) of Larkin’s 28.8 WAR, Reyes is worth ~$117M (4.5M/win). So I don’t know if I’m sold on the 6th year but 6/$120 is not crazy money.

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by Nystrom on Nov 4, 2011 10:44 AM EDT reply actions

Beltran is better than Reyes

Interesting comparison. As much as I love Reyes and want the Mets to resign him, I think Beltran at the time of his signing was slightly better and had a healthier track record than Reyes does now. So inflation aside, the Beltran signing is a better deal than a Reyes deal for the same amount. Also, Beltran continued his awesome play both offensively and defensively, making his contract one of the best in recent history. You can’t outright expect Reyes to match that.

by Undercovers on Nov 6, 2011 8:11 PM EST reply actions

The reason for the comparison

is that Reyes carries a health risk where he might miss significant time and turn into an albatross. Beltran did miss significant time but didn’t turn into an albatross.
Basically, if the player is as good as Beltran (or even not as good since Beltran actually provided surplus value; $120M+ in value as opposed to $119M in cost), there’s a good chance it won’t matter that he misses 30 games a year because he’ll still provide a decent return on investment.

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by Ogre39666 on Nov 6, 2011 8:52 PM EST up reply actions