A popular opinion seems to be that Reyes won't be able to stay healthy and therefore won't be worth a 6-year $120mil contract. Let's compare Carlos Beltran's 7-year contract with Reyes' last 7 years:
|
Year |
Beltran's WAR |
Reyes' WAR |
|
2005 |
2.7 |
2.3 |
|
2006 |
7.9 |
6.1 |
|
2007 |
5.5 |
5.8 |
|
2008 |
7.6 |
6.4 |
|
2009 |
3.0 |
0.8 |
|
2010 |
0.8 |
2.9 |
|
2011 |
4.7 |
6.2 |
|
TOTAL |
32.2 |
30.5 |
|
Average |
4.60 |
4.36 |
|
Price per Win |
3,727 |
3,934 |
In the last 7 years, Reyes averaged 133 games played. Beltran averaged 126 games played (vs a career average of 135) in a contract that got him up to his 34-year-old season. A 6-year contract for Reyes would take him to age 33. Is it too much to expect Reyes to play in 133 games per season for the next 6? Given the lack of alternatives, I don't see that the Mets have any choice but to re-sign Reyes, give him the 6th year if that's what it takes. Beltran, as little as he played, was worth it, despite what Wilpon might think. Reyes will be too.
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