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Around SBN: Ryder Hesjedal Wins Giro d'Italia

Project: David Wright

David Wright made some changes last year. Maybe you noticed.

Let's try to quantify those changes with a look at his work at the plate with the use of all the advanced analytics at our disposal. Heat maps, batted ball distance and angle -- what can these things tell us about David Wright in 2011?

This is part of our ongoing series trying to determine the impact of a hitting coach in general -- and Dave Hudgens in specific. We're going to begin breaking down some key Mets players. Just a handful of Mets played enough in 2010 and 2011 that we can do this sort of analysis with them, but we'll work with what we have.

On to Mr. Wright.

Star-divide

We showed in our swing metrics pieces that Wright saw more pitches per plate appearance, swung less at pitches outside the zone, and made more contact in 2011 than he did in 2010. In terms of swinging outside the zone, and seeing more pitches per plate appearance, Wright was also better than his career levels in 2011. Hudgens might have helped him become more patient and selective.

But it is that process -- picking the right pitches to swing at -- that is also interesting. How did Hudgens do this? How exactly did it play out at the plate? What were the results when seen in the eye of batted ball distance and angle?

It's no brain-buster that Wright has had some issues with balls on the outer half of the plate. Take a look at his heat map for 2009-2010. See that blue hole that's in the middle of the strike zone but on the outer half of the plate? That's where Wright was worse than league average. There are other holes, but that one in particular is interesting.

Wright910heat_medium

Wright was pretty good down the middle -- most players are -- but he had a hole on the outer half. Compare his work in 2011 to the two previous years. Now the hole is gone:

Wright11heat_medium

What was once a problem for Wright has become a strength.

How did he do it? Easy, says Dave Hudgens -- he just had to work on staying inside the ball and going with the pitch. When he's going to all fields, and especially driving the ball in the middle third of the field, said Hudgens, is when he's at his best.

We can check this work from another angle. Specifically, batted ball angles. If he was too pull-happy in 2009 or 2010, Wright's batted ball angle would show it. On the chart below, -45 means the left field line, and 45 means the right field line. In other words, since Wright is a righty, negative is more pull-happy and righty is more "push"-happy. Maybe you'll see something strange about his ten-home run 2009 season:

Wrightangle_medium

Yeah, Wright was way too happy to go the opposite way in 2009 and it seems to have hurt his home run power. Then he pulled the ball more in 2010, and that might have hurt his ability to make contact. 2011 was the tale of two half-seasons, but it might have also shown that he can have a happy medium going forward. One where he's going right up the middle, just like his hitting coach wants for him.

How has this affected his non-home-run power? Take a look at his batted ball distance over the same time frame:

Wrightdistance_medium

He got a little more power when he went a little more pull, and then he lost some of that power gain last year when he evened out his approach. His ISO reflects that swing -- .140 in 2009, .220 when he was pulling it in 2010, and .172 with his evened-out approach in 2011. It is worth noting that his wOBA, which reflects his overall offensive production, did not like the 2011 approach, as it hit a career-low, but you never know how his back injury affected his power production. You can see what looks like a downward tilt to his batted ball distance after returning from injury. Let's call the batted ball distance data inconclusive.

Given the fact that Wright's strikeout rate hit a career-worst in 2010 (24%), when he was pulling the ball more and had a hole in his swing on the outer half of the plate, we'd have to say conclusively, once you zoom out and look at the whole picture, that Wright has made some progress in the past two years.

In fact, given these pictures, it's hard not to say, definitively, that Dave Hudgens has been good to David Wright.

Thanks to Jeff Zimmerman for his site, baseballheatmaps.com, for the images used in this piece.

Poll
Will Wright keep his contact gains next year and regain some power?
No, it's one or the other.
48 votes
Yes, he can be regain lost glory.
322 votes

370 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 44 comments  |  5 recs  | 

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TRAID

One day, this team is going to kill me.

by fxcarden on Dec 1, 2011 1:57 PM EST reply actions  

UWright!

__________________________________________________________________
Really good kid.A very good player.Not a superstar. #BlameWilponz. Never Forget

by ScottfromPeekskill on Dec 1, 2011 8:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Dubs will regain his swagger

Hit homers over those fresh blue walls

I hate Philadelphia so much.

by the caveman on Dec 1, 2011 2:18 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

He'll have more swagger than ever before

and bunt homeruns over those walls. With one hand. Blindfolded. While listening to Joe Buck and Tim McCarver broadcast a game.

__________________________________________________
"He who gets the best players usually wins" - Bobby Bowden

by Russ on Dec 1, 2011 2:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Bunt Homeruns...thats possible

One handed… there’s an outside chance.
But listening to Buck and McCarver without spontaneously combusting… I’d like to see that!

__________________________________________________________________
Really good kid.A very good player.Not a superstar. #BlameWilponz. Never Forget

by ScottfromPeekskill on Dec 1, 2011 8:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Possible

But I have a feeling it’s going to look more like .280/.360/.490, than the .300/.390/.520 peak line. Which is more than acceptable, of course, but a 4-5 win player rather than a 6+

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@jeffpaternostro

by Jeffrey Paternostro on Dec 1, 2011 2:43 PM EST reply actions  

For what its worth

ZIPS has him at an even worse .269/.351/.447 . Far removed from vintage Wright.

A deadline has a wonderful way of concentrating the mind.-Professor James Moriarty
Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.- Former Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan

by Blame-everyone-else on Dec 1, 2011 6:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Yeah not too good

Not terrible, but hopefully he’l be better than that.

I could be wrong, but I think ZIPS calculations are just based off the last 3-4 yrs…and strictly a statistical model based on what the player has done (with the more recent yrs being weighed more heavily), It doesnt take into account some of the other variables…i.e. that his performance was likely impacted by injury in 2011 and the modifications to the stadium (which obviously would be hard to calculate given they havent played in the modified stadium yet). Hopefully being healthier and hitting in a hitter-friendlier stadium will get him closer to his prior levels.

by LGNYM on Dec 1, 2011 6:33 PM EST up reply actions  

From FanGraphs:
The work of Dan Szymborski over at Baseball Think Factory , the ZiPS projections uses weighted averages of four years of data (three if a player is very old or very young), regresses pitchers based on DIPS theory and BABIP rates, and adjusts for aging by looking at similar players and their aging trends. It’s an effective projection system, and is displayed at FanGraphs for off-season and in-season projections.

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by Ogre39666 on Dec 1, 2011 7:16 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm not sure what to expect...

I do believe he will be better in 2012 than he was in 2011.

But whether he’ll approach the 2005-2008 levels…I’m not sure how optimistic to be. The dimensions should help somewhat. But I almost forget what it was like to see him be an elite player over a full season. I suppose it is encouraging to see he made some improvements in his swing, but he was pretty lousy on the year as a whole that its not quite that encouraging. He did look great when he first got off the DL…small sample, probably only about 3 weeks,,,maybe I’ll have some hope that it means that player is still in there somewhere

BTW, OT, but is there anywhere that has splits on defensive stats (UZR) within seasons? Back in the first half of 2010 Wright hit very well (though he stunk in May and still K’ed a ton overall), putting up a OPS around .925 and i also remember him ranking pretty high at that point in overall WAR. Than offensively he completely fell apart in the second half. For the season his defensive stats were terrible. I was just curious (not really sure if it would mean much) as to whether his D was lousy all yr that yr or if it fell off a cliff in the second half like his offense did.

by LGNYM on Dec 1, 2011 2:50 PM EST reply actions  

David Wright's 2012 season will be as follows:
  • 236 wRC+
  • 19.62 UZR (because he wants to celebrate the golden anniversary)
  • 51 HRs
  • 52 SBs
  • 53 Ks over the entire season.
  • 15.9 fWAR
  • Converts to Mormonism and marries Ann Hathaway, Brooklyn Decker and Kate Upton
  • Second place in MVP voting behind Ryan Howard’s 1.7 fWAR season

__________________________________________________
"He who gets the best players usually wins" - Bobby Bowden

by Russ on Dec 1, 2011 3:01 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

Hey, look at what Oliva Munn is doing for Brad Richards.

Just imagine what those three could do for David.

Save Jenrry Mejia!
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by Ogre39666 on Dec 1, 2011 3:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Exactly

__________________________________________________
"He who gets the best players usually wins" - Bobby Bowden

by Russ on Dec 1, 2011 3:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Funny.

I never took David for a polygamist. But hey…if he can handle the workload, he might as well.

Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
You might know me as mistermet.

by Steve Schreiber on Dec 1, 2011 9:51 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm a little worried about your prediction, Russ.

I know if I was married to all three of them, I’d lose interest in anything that took me out of the house.

"And that's why anybody who invested with Lenny Dykstra should really call that number. Lawyers are standing by."

by BobbyV_Incognito on Dec 1, 2011 11:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Think the power will go up a tick

Not sure about the average.

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

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by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 1, 2011 3:06 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

What's more likely?

David Wright 30 HR or Johan Santana 30 starts?

by TheBigStapler on Dec 1, 2011 3:22 PM EST reply actions  

Too easy,

What’s more likely?

David Wright 30 HR or Johan Santana 10 starts?

by Kepler on Dec 1, 2011 4:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Either of those

Is more likely that Jason Bay 20 HR

by LSUtoast on Dec 1, 2011 4:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Both :)

"Amazing strength, amazing power - he can grind the dust out of the bat. He will be great, super even wonderful. Now, if he can only learn to catch a fly ball."
-Casey Stengel on Lucas Duda

by piazza62 on Dec 1, 2011 5:27 PM EST up reply actions  

30 HR for Wright

He returned to ~30 in 2010, so…

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 1, 2011 6:30 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

To be picky, you forgot the option

“No, though it’s theoretically possible.”

If this were an R.A. Dickey poll, it would also have to include:

“No, although it’s theoretically impossible.”

by Kepler on Dec 1, 2011 4:06 PM EST reply actions  

*second No = Yes

Stupid joke ruining mistyping is stupid.

by Kepler on Dec 1, 2011 4:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Big change was merely David moving closer to the plate.Now he can reach the outside pitch.Rocket science

it is not.Look for a good year for David,.300-25HR’s-35-2B-100 RBI’s and under a 100 K’s

by Putnan Prince on Dec 1, 2011 9:00 PM EST reply actions  

Don't see him being under 100 K's

He struck out over 100 times even in his best years.

by graves9 on Dec 1, 2011 11:05 PM EST up reply actions  

yup hes a K MACHINE

But hovers around 285 usually its amazing really. He needs to start hating kids

I hate Philadelphia so much.

by the caveman on Dec 2, 2011 9:27 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

He is now...wasn't back a few years ago

The strikeouts didnt become a problem until 2009. Prior to that year he struck out over 100 times (around 115 a year), but lots of guys strike out over 100 times….its not really that excessive. And he hit .300 every year. But when you get up to the averaging a strikeout per game rate that he’s been at the past few yrs…thats a problem, and it becomes hard to sustain that high BA.

He doesn’t need to cut the K’s down below 100 to have a big impact. It would be huge if he could just somehow cut it down to 110-120 over the course of a full season.

by LGNYM on Dec 2, 2011 10:59 AM EST up reply actions  

This

His K rate was never a problem until ‘09, and then it increased tremendously. (He went from 118 Ks in ’08 to 140 Ks in ’09, while playing 16 games less). That’s a 6.7% increase.

by MetsCity on Dec 2, 2011 11:22 AM EST up reply actions  

One weird thing for me

Is how he was going opposite field so much in ‘09, and yet his K% still rose so dramatically (22.7% in ’09 vs. 16.0% in ’08). I always thought the direct correlation to his increase in strikeouts was changing to more of a pull hitter in response to right center field being so deep in Citi Field. It seems that it wasn’t the main cause but rather just exacerbated the problem (24.0% in ’10 – slight increase). David Wright has been such an enigma the last few years.

by MetsCity on Dec 2, 2011 10:57 AM EST reply actions  

Ha, I always argued against those people like you ;)

that argued all his problems could be solved if he just went the other way. It did seem like trying to pull too much was part of his problem in 2010…but I remembered that not being the case in 2009. It seemed like pretty often that year he was just poking the ball the other way a lot and not really trying to drive the ball like he had in years past. I blame Jerry and the curveball drill!!! I think its easier to understand how overswinging or trying to pull too much could screw up a guys’ swing and lead to more Ks, but maybe any major alterations can have a similar effect if a guy is just uncomfortable or his swing feels unnatural. And conceivably if he was too focused on going the other way, maybe he was waiting on the ball too long in some cases which could contribute to him being late on pitches. I don’t know.

But yes, he is a definite enigma. I don’t think his issues are caused by just one problem, and having different problems makes it hard to figure out. But it could just be the case that changing his swing in general is what screwed him up. Maybe going into Citi in 2009 he made adjustments in one direction and then when they didn’t work and he had the huge power drop off he overcompenstated in the other direction and caused other problems.

by LGNYM on Dec 2, 2011 11:10 AM EST up reply actions  

Waiting for the ball

That could be a reason for the increase in K’s. Or just the uncomfortableness of a new stance/approach at the plate. But Wright never had a problem hitting the other way in his previous years before ‘09. He was notorious for crushing the ball to the opposite field with 2 strikes. So if he was trying to go opposite field more I don’t know how that made him uncomfortable, since it was already an excellent skill of his. It’s just weird all around to me.

by MetsCity on Dec 2, 2011 11:17 AM EST up reply actions  

Yeah

He has always been good going that way. But maybe in 2009 he overdid it and tried to force balls that way that he previously wouldnt have? I don’t really know. In saying uncomfortable I meant if he did alter his swing that could have just been part of the problem. Not necessarily saying that going the other way in itself made him uncomfortable. I think he did say at the end of that year that he felt like he was constantly tinkering with his swing and that screwed him up and that he needed to stop doing that and just settle on one.

It is just weird…Ive spent far too much time trying to analyze the mystery that is DW these past few years. Hopefully with the adjustments too Citi he’ll go back to being the player he used to be and put and end to all the wondering/worrying.

by LGNYM on Dec 2, 2011 11:28 AM EST up reply actions  

Me too

Although I feel his tinkering, like you said, was really the most damaging thing as oppose to the park itself. In order for Wright to get back to his old numbers, he has to get back to his old form. The dimensions are not going to automatically put him back into his ‘08 awesomeness. I wish it could, but that’s not realistic. He’d have to watch game tape or something from his ‘06-’08 seasons and try to get back to those good habits he had as a hitter.

by MetsCity on Dec 2, 2011 11:32 AM EST up reply actions  

I'd sign up for .285/.355/.490

from Wright right now. Anything more would be great, anything less would be slightly disappointing.

by David G on Dec 2, 2011 11:48 AM EST reply actions  

To be fair that's pretty much what he's been doing since Citi opened

I’m hoping for a little more but if it’s worse than that I’ll be pretty sad.

Astro Travellin'

by BlackOps on Dec 2, 2011 9:06 PM EST up reply actions  

I think the OBP will be better than that

Especially if he hits .285. The low walk rate in 2010 seems to be a bit of an anomaly. So if he’s able to get that average back up, I think the OBP will be better.

by LGNYM on Dec 3, 2011 12:02 AM EST up reply actions  

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