To TRAID Or Not To TRAID Applesauce: Niese Rumored To Be Going Everywhere, Mets Interested In Gio Gonzalez, Won't Offer Biggest Chips For Him Though
Meet the Mets
Jon Niese's name has certainly become a popular one this offseason, as the 25-year old lefty continues to be talked about as possible trade bait. The first "rumor" of Friday was that the Mets had been discussing Niese with the Blue Jays, with catching prospect Travis D'Arnaud a target for New York. D'Arnaud, a very talented 22-year old catching prospect, would be a major coup for the Mets if they could wrangle him away from the Jays. Of course, it would probably be too much of a steal, as prospect gurus Kevin Goldstein and Keith Law emphatically put it. The second rumor of the day was that the Rockies might try to acquire Niese for a package headed up by 29-year old platoon outfielder Seth Smith. Yikes. No thanks.
Outside of Niese, there were more Gio Gonzalez to the Mets rumors, which continue to seem incredibly far-fetched. Especially since Jon Heyman reported on Friday that Niese, Ike Davis, Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Jeurys Familia or Jenrry Mejia are off limits to the A's in a Gonzalez deal. So exactly does this leave for the Mets and A's to match up on? Hmm. Regardless, Patrick Flood compared Niese to Gonzalez and the numbers are almost overwhelmingly in favor of the A's lefty.
Whitestone's Own Mike Baxter has re-signed with the Mets as expected, to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training. Meanwhile, the Mets have had talks with Jack Wilson and Ronny Cedeno. I'm hoping that this is how those "talks" went.
Over at the SNY Why Guys, Mike Salfino tries to project a potential path for Lucas Duda, whose offensive production could range anywhere from Ryan Howard to Chris Shelton.
Howard Megdal's book "Wilpon's Folly" came out on Friday and the big bombshell, as reported by the Post, was that Fred Wilpon asked his friend Bud Selig to essentially play the role of the "bad cop" by denying David Einhorn's partial ownership bid, as he got cold feet and feared losing control of the team. The Mets, in reaction to the release of the book, vehemently denied the claims but at this point, should we really believe the claims of ownership after they've backtracked on their financial status multiple times?
Finally, it looks as if Howie Rose will in fact have a new partner in the WFAN booth in 2012. Wayne Hagin's contract was not renewed and WFAN has apparently been interviewing replacements.
Around the Majors
Barry Bonds was sentenced to two years' probation and 30 days house arrest for his conviction on one count of obstruction of justice.
Michael Cuddyer agreed to a 3-year, $31.5 million contract with the Rockies on Friday. I understand Cuddyer is very versatile in that he can stand at multiple positions on the infield/in the outfield and not make a fool of himself, but $31.5 million seems ridiculous, especially considering a better hitter named Carlos Beltran is still on the free agent market.
The Cubs, Rangers and Blue Jays are among the bidders for Yu Darvish and the Jays are rumored to have placed the high bid. The deadline for the Nippon Ham Fighters to accept the top bid is Tuesday, so it may still be a few days before we find out gets the right to negotiate with him.
Since they let SS Alex Gonzalez walk, it looks as if the Braves will let 22-year old rookie Tyler Pastornicky start at short come opening day. Could the Braves' youth movement negatively affect their 2012 season?
Finally, the Orioles did something interesting as they moved six of their pro scouts to the amateur scouting side, leaving an unprecedented two pro scouts. They will utilize more video and statistical analysis as a means of pro scouting. It's a bold strategy. Let's see if it pays off for them.
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What the Orioles are doing sounds sounds familiar to what the Sabres did a few years ago.
Tom Golisano wanted to cut costs so he forced a revamp of the scouting department. Instead of on location, they moved to almost fully video scouting. It had mixed results (a lot of useful pieces but few star-quality players). Of course the Sabres had what was held to be one of the better scouting departments at the time, so how much how they scouted guys effected their ability is up for debit. If they weren’t as good at their job it possible video scouting would’ve hurt more than it did.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
2012 Amazin' Avenue Offseason Plan: 2nd place
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Our long national nightmare is over. Wayne Hagin is no longer calling games on the radio.
by aparkermarshall on Dec 17, 2011 10:27 AM EST reply actions
Lets see if my new signature appears
The 2011 Mets Offseason: Non-tendered Wayne Hagin, to the delight of Mets fan's ears.
by aparkermarshall on Dec 17, 2011 10:37 AM EST up reply actions
Nice to hear
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
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by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 17, 2011 2:33 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
With our luck
we’ll be getting Tom McCarthy back or John Franco will join Howie in the booth.
by graves9 on Dec 17, 2011 3:04 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Wayne Hagin Will not be missed
"I only wanted a few things out of life -- a wife, children, to play baseball and to hunt deer." - Turk Wendell
Not Everyone Like Hagin
But the real reason he was not resigned is because they are worried about injury, and want to bring someone up for the minors at the major league minimum.
I'd rather have
Poppa Valentino Pascucci in the booth than Hagin.
"Let them be stud muffins"
-Tom Seaver
Proud Mets, Jets, Knicks, Islanders fan.
by piazza62 on Dec 17, 2011 5:56 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I don't believe he would have put it in the book
If he didn’t have a solid source on it. It certainly sounds plausible as well.
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by Jeffrey Paternostro on Dec 17, 2011 9:03 PM EST up reply actions
I think so.
I think the character attack of Megdal aspect of it is pretty telling. That makes me think back to September of 2009 when Dave Howard went onto that tv show and basically attacked that author who said that the Wilpons would have to sell in the near future, saying ultimately the Mets “weren’t for sale in whole or part.” A little over a year later and suddenly the Wilpons are selling off a quarter of the team.
I just can’t take the organization for their word at this point, not after they’ve seemingly backtracked on everything regarding their finances. And as Jeff said above, I’d doubt Megdal publishes that without having a really good source saying that it’s true.
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by Steve Schreiber on Dec 17, 2011 9:18 PM EST up reply actions
What I Don't Understand...
Is how the Mets can even think of trading Niese. They are broke, and need cheap players.
They only have four starters — Pelfrey, Niese, Dickey and Gee. Santana may not play this year, or may not play ’til mid-year, or may not be any good anymore.
The young pitchers are a year or more away. Who do the Mets have in AAA who might be a decent starter? My understanding is Gee was that guy, and he’s already assumed to be the #4 starter.
well they also said they expected him to be back by the all-star break last winter so
I’d take it with a grain of salt and assume an error margin of like 6 months to a year.
one does not simply walk into mordor...unless winter is coming
Well I think the idea is to try to get more young, cheap players in exchange for Niese.
Young, cheap players who are even more talented than Niese and can become franchise cornerstones. Niese is a nice pitcher but he’s not a franchise cornerstone. Once he starts making a few million, Niese’s value likely only drops from this point (unless he takes a gigantic leap forward). A lot of his value right now comes from age and the fact that he’s cheap and left handed and that there is potential for him to be a solid, young, cheap, lefthanded #3 starter. I just don’t know how realistic #3 starter in the future.
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You might know me as mistermet.
by Steve Schreiber on Dec 17, 2011 9:23 PM EST up reply actions
I think you're really really undervaluing what Niese can do if health isn't an issue
(I’m removing health because I don’t know enough about his injuries to include them). Guys who can get 50% groundballs AND miss as many bats as Niese are pretty rare. Bordering non existent. So if we can expect him to just maintain, not even improve just maintain, his stats and go 190 innings next year he’d be a 5 WAR pitcher. That’s way better than a number 3. Hes a number 3 at worst right now.
one does not simply walk into mordor...unless winter is coming
Probably
As I’ve said, I like Niese a lot but I think the issues he has with contact are a legitimate concern. The peripherals are great but he allows such a high BABIP/batting average against (and always has throughout the minors) that I wonder whether it’s something he can overcome. If it is, then yes he’s a pretty awesome pitcher. But if not? He’s Ricky Nolasco…nice peripherals but still gives up a lot of runs. Not to mention the durability issues that have plagued him early on. I will say that the jump up in his GB rate is encouraging, though.
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by Steve Schreiber on Dec 17, 2011 10:32 PM EST up reply actions
I could understand that argument with flyball pitchers
where some give up legitimately more dangerous contact than others. But I find it hard to think that same thing can occur with groundball pitchers. (especially ones that miss bats) mostly because I can’t think of any comparison for it. Unless you mean contact on non groundballs? (His ground ball rates have been high since 09 so I don’t really think they’ve jumped)
I guess basically I’m totally confused as to what you’re saying, are you saying the issues he has with contact on his groundballs, like they’re hit harder than most groundballs? Cause I don’t think that makes much sense in explaining high BABIP/BAA numbers.
one does not simply walk into mordor...unless winter is coming
plus don't forget he's Left-handed
that in itself is a nice plus in baseball
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by feslenraster on Dec 18, 2011 8:29 AM EST up reply actions
Throughout AA and AAA he's had a .297 BABIP
which isn’t overwhelmingly high. He’s had a high BABIP in the majors for the past 2 seasons, but his peripherals improved greatly from 2010 to 2011. He lowered his FIP, xFIP, BB and HR rates while striking out more and generating more groundballs. Maybe you can pin his high BABIP on something he does, but when you improve this much for a team that features multiple players with negative UZRs in double digits, the results are inconclusive at worst.
Put him in a good (or at least scratch) defensive club and he will look much, much better.
"Let them be stud muffins"
-Tom Seaver
Proud Mets, Jets, Knicks, Islanders fan.
This, and there's just no way you can ignore that combination of K's and groundballs
like I don’t even want to name the other players with similar rates in those stats, cause it would seem like hyperbole. But youre basically talking about a group of the best pitchers in baseball. Though obviously that’s assuming 1. health and 2. his numbers mantain.
one does not simply walk into mordor...unless winter is coming
And nice walk rate
The only bad peripheral he has his HR rate, and that came down significantly last year from over 1 to .8. In terms of ground balls, walks and strikeouts, he compares nicely with C.J. Wilson, CC and Chris Carpenter, and his name doesn’t even have a “C” in it!
Look at his ERA/FIP differential
Almost an entire run.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest | 1st place- 2012 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 18, 2011 6:34 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Capuano also had bad FIP vs ERA #s too, I think there might be something
to the really bad Mets’ defense hurting pitcher stats.
Anyone else from the Albany area?
After hearing AM 980 dropped the metsies for the sox ive really pissed, and I was just wondering if anyone had heard anything about another station picking up the contract
Im not surprised to be honest
When I went to Syracuse to train for my new job, alot of upstate NY cities are overwhelming pro-Skanks or pro-Red Sox with some sprinkles of Flunkies. Seeing a Mets fan up there is rare.
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