Who Should Bat Leadoff For The Mets Next Season?

But I have no problem with Torres hitting leadoff. He had a .343 OBP the two years before last, that .313 number is influenced by a down year and a couple of cups of coffee a decade ago.

b/c Murph’s skillset — excellent contact hitter, middling power, doesn’t draw many walks — plays better in the 2-hole or the 6-hole, I think. Murph loves swinging early in counts, while Tejada has been known to have a 10 or 12 pitch AB with some frequency. Because he draws more walks (and gets hit by so many pitches!), Tejada’s OBP is not tied to BABIP the way Murph’s is. Don’t get me wrong, I love the Irish Hammer, but I don’t think he is even a TRUE SABR leadoff batter, let alone a “traditional” one.

Because I think it’s a more likely outcome than Murph (who I would prefer). So based on that, my (realistic) preferred lineup:

1. Tejada
2. Murph
3. Dubs
4. Ike
5. Duda
6. Bay
7. Torres
8. Thole
9. Pitcher

If Jason Bay struggles, I’m all for dropping him and replacing him with the Cap’n.

this is the lineup I would run out there on opening day, assuming everyone is healthy:

TEJADA (SS)
MURPHY (2B
WRIGHT (3B)
DAVIS (1B)
BAY (LF)
DUDA (RF)
TORRES (CF)
THOLE ©
SANTANA (P)

You are right about line-up construction in general, but I think given the rather wide range of outcomes for Murphy, Duda, Torres, and Tejada, the Mets need to think out of the box a bit. Basically cluster their best hitters together at the top of the line-up to maximize their at-bats. Somthing like

Murphy
Wright
Duda
Davis
Bay
Tejada
Torres
Thole

Murphy’s walk rate is worrisome, but he makes a lot of contact and has more doubles power than Tejada or Thole (who would be my other options) I think it’s likely that Wright, Davis, Duda and Murphy post the four highest wOBA on the team next year, and clustering them maximizes your chances of scoring runs. That said, their line-up will more likely look like

Torres
Murphy
Wright
Davis
Bay
Duda
Thole
Tejada

And really, the difference over a season there will maybe be 10-15 runs.

just because I want the neanderthal fans to blow a cap.

I lobby more Carlos and less Jason.

Oh wait…

We’re looking at his OBP, but that should not be taken in a vacuum. OBP can often times be lowered due to a weak batting average, which can be mitigated by BABIP. If you look at his BB%, he makes a strong candidate for the leadoff spot. In his last 3 years with the Giants, Torres posted a BB% of 9.4%, 9.8%, and 10.6% respectively. Compare that with Tejada, who’s seen as having superior On Base Skills, who had his best season last year at 9.3%. Wright was better at 11.6%, but I think he is better utilized in the middle of the lineup, mixed in with Davis and Duda. Those are the 3 best power hitters.

And when you look at this lineup, it is a very station to station type of lineup, with the exclusions of Torres and Wright. That being said, while stolen bases may not be important to the top of the lineup, speed and the ability to go from 1st to 3rd on a single, 1st to home on a double or more shouldn’t be underestimated. Torres, and Wright to a degree, are the only two players in the everyday lineup who offer this ability. I think Torres should be the leadoff hitter, unless he repeats his subpar 2011 offensive numbers.

I live in a world, and that world is called denial.

just because i could

I have a .000 OBP in zero at bats. I’m king of SSS!!

should be: ‘how many leadoff hitters will we see this season’?

I’ll go with 5.

I vote minority owners bat leadoff

Juan Pierre

Murph should bat second. He should have batted second last year behind Reyes. Leftie, contact hitter, goes deep in counts. Pure logic. Except that Collins is ILLogical.

Tejada
Bay
Murphy
Ike
Wright
Duda
Torres
Thole

Gives us a chance to Boo Bay earlier in games

you guys are unbelievable.

everybody knows he bats third

Because he plays shortstop