#1, #2, #3, #4 and #5 NL Starting Pitchers In 2011

by James Kannengieser on Dec 23, 2011 10:30 AM EST

The blog Metsrospectus had a cool post linked in the FanShots this week. It investigated where R.A. Dickey's 2011 performance would place him in every other MLB team's rotation. It reminded of a post I had run the last few years, which aimed to quantify what makes a #1 through #5 starting pitcher. The first paragraph here describing the imperfect methodology is pulled from last year's post.

When describing starting pitchers, people often say things like "he's an ace" or "he's a #4 pitcher". A pet peeve of mine is the lazy labeling of a pitcher to a certain rotation spot, based mostly on a subjective feeling. Poll a group of baseball fans about this topic and you will likely receive a vast array of opinions. My take, which is similar to the ones shared in this post and this post, is that if a pitcher is in the top 1/5 of starters in his league, then he should be called a #1 starter. The next 1/5 are #2's, the next 1/5 are #3's, etc. I pulled some statistics from FanGraphs to devise a way of classifying National League starters based on their 2011 performance.

A total of 15,547 innings were thrown by 147 different NL starters this season. I put together spreadsheets with all of the pitchers, their innings pitched, and their fielding independent pitching (FIP) and ERA. Click here for the FIP spreadsheet and click here for the ERA spreadsheet. I created 5 groups of 3,109 innings each by dividing 15,547 total innings by 5. Beginning with the pitcher who boasts the best FIP/ERA, I summed innings until reaching 3,109 to determine #1 pitchers. I did the same all the way through the bottom spot on the list. Got it? Standard caveats apply here: the numbers aren't park adjusted, multiple years of data would probably yield more meaningful results, etc. Here are the FIP results, showing pitcher classification, the number of pitchers that fit that classification, and the corresponding FIP range:

Of the #1 pitchers, only 10 threw 150+ innings. Here is how the Mets' starters fared:

Now for the ERA results:

And here is how the Mets' starters stack up:

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Comments

So...what you're saying is

Pelfrey is our Ace*

*how to sell tickets in the off season when your real ace is having surgery.

@JavaJoeX

by JavaJoe on Dec 23, 2011 10:41 AM EST reply actions

James lobby Schwinden for Opening Day starter.

In lobby for: Jaime Cevallos, Zack Lutz, orange unis and Rickroll as the 7th inning song.
The Unwritten Rules of AA

by Michkin on Dec 23, 2011 11:45 AM EST up reply actions

ERA v FIP

If you had to place guys on the spectrum of quality, w/o looking at numbers, ERA would have served you well this year; FIP, not so much. Is that true in many years?

Learn something new every day: http://dlewis.net/nik

by Dan Lewis on Dec 23, 2011 10:47 AM EST reply actions

Personally, I think FIP is pretty much worthless

In a small sample, xFIP is a better indicator of skill, because FIP will fluctuate wildly based on a couple HR. (FIP can be applied to historical data, though, so there’s that.)

In a large sample, better to just use (park-adjusted) ERA. Otherwise you get absurdities like Mariano Rivera having 17 less fWAR than rWAR because FIP doesn’t “believe” in his low BABIP.

by psiogen on Dec 23, 2011 11:35 AM EST up reply actions

This

FIP is an indication of what could have happened in the past, which is worthless information to me. xFIP is a much better tool for projection (and it also makes Jon Niese awesome, so that’s a plus).

"Let them be stud muffins"
-Tom Seaver
Proud Mets, Jets, Knicks, Islanders fan.

by piazza62 on Dec 23, 2011 11:50 AM EST up reply actions

I hate to say it, but, GAME OVER!!

The season has not even started yet, and, I feel that we are doomed. The METS have done nothing to improve this team, infact, all they have done is made it worse. This way be the year that the Nats and Marlins finish ahead of the METS, we very well may be fighting to stay out of the basement. Can we even look forward to 2013 or 2014? I feel like we are back in the late 70’s or early 80’s again, no hope.

by PiazzaHOF on Dec 23, 2011 11:33 AM EST reply actions

want some cheese with that whine buddy?

When Tim Tebow met Bjoren Werner he was so in awe of his presence that he spontaneously knelt upon one knee and placed his head upon his hand, and Tebowing was born.

by MCATDT on Dec 23, 2011 11:42 AM EST up reply actions

DOOOOOOOOOOOMED

Just have to hope we’re doomed like the 1982-83 Mets, not so much like the 1977-78 Mets.

by psiogen on Dec 23, 2011 11:43 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

actually, i'm hoping they're the 1979 Mets

that means we’d get new ownership in 2013.

"No curses, only incompetent ownership" - Russ

by Help!I'maRock! on Dec 23, 2011 12:12 PM EST up reply actions

If you are just realizing now that 2012 is going to be a wasted year...

… you probably need to pay a lot more attention to things.

Learn something new every day: http://dlewis.net/nik

by Dan Lewis on Dec 23, 2011 11:53 AM EST up reply actions

HOLY BREAKING NEWS.

The Wilpons are having a bit of financial difficulty.

by bjk3047 on Dec 23, 2011 9:27 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

Wait...what?

Since when?

Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
You might know me as mistermet.

by Steve Schreiber on Dec 23, 2011 9:50 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

I am pretty SURE that

you already THREW AWAY your fandom a few times before. As SUCH, why do any future prospects DISTURB you?

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest | 1st place- 2012 AAOP Contest

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 23, 2011 1:43 PM EST up reply actions

I read your username as "Piazzahoff"

Like Hasselhoff

by James Kannengieser on Dec 23, 2011 11:05 PM EST up reply actions

Even though our rotation is crappy, quality/depth/health wise, we still need to fill about 1000 IP.

Sandy is probably not going to rush our prospects, but we’ll have to endure some horrible performances in 2012.
Even with the slot-abiding policy, the Mets had some moderate success developing hitters, but not pitchers.
Considering the attrition rate of pitcher prospects, the fact that they peak early, the risk of injury for FA SP (usually in their 30’s) and the commitment needed to sign top FA (money/years), we should look for a continuous stream of high upside SP besides the now called “4 horseman” (think TB or Atlanta).

In lobby for: Jaime Cevallos, Zack Lutz, orange unis and Rickroll as the 7th inning song.
The Unwritten Rules of AA

by Michkin on Dec 23, 2011 12:19 PM EST reply actions