Bay, Niese, and Flores for F.DuBront (p), Wes Middlebrook (3B), J.Reddick or R.Kalish (OF), DiceK...

Bay, Niese, and Flores for F.DuBront (p), Wes Middlebrook (3B), J.Reddick or R.Kalish (OF), DiceK (to even out the salary), and R.Lavarnaway (c).
Mets need a 3B if DW gets traded next year. DuBront is out of options, but has potential. DiceK is injured and won't play anyway, but evens out the salary swap a little. Reddick/Kalish to fill in in RF (Duda to LF). Lavarnaway isn´t D´Arnaud, but he's an OK C prospect. Thoughts? [Note: this post originally said Maine instead of Niese. Pure brainfart, or early onset Alzheimer´s? You decide...] ;-}

5 months ago Dave In Spain 22 comments 0 recs |

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Maine?

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by Catsmeat Potter-Pirbright on Dec 23, 2011 8:31 AM EST reply actions

MAINE

he might mean Pelfrey?

by MDMETSFAN on Dec 23, 2011 8:43 AM EST up reply actions

I'm pretty sure he meant Will Middlebrooks as well

Not the greatest fact checking on this one

by Stephen Schmidt on Dec 24, 2011 9:23 PM EST up reply actions

And it's Lavarnway

not Lavarnaway.

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by Ogre39666 on Dec 24, 2011 9:49 PM EST up reply actions

Merde...I meant Niese...

It´s the flashbacks that´ll kill you.

by Dave In Spain on Dec 23, 2011 9:21 AM EST reply actions 1 recs

This was meant as a real proposal?

Ignoring the fact that John Maine hasn’t been Mets property in over a year now, why would the Sox even consider this?

I know who would consider this: 718 937 6666

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by Steve Schreiber on Dec 23, 2011 9:42 AM EST via mobile reply actions

Read further!

I corrected the mistake, if you had bothered to look.

by Dave In Spain on Dec 23, 2011 11:19 AM EST up reply actions

that doesn't make this a reasonable or real proposal

it only makes it sound worse for the Mets.

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by astromets on Dec 23, 2011 12:26 PM EST up reply actions

Personally, I think it´s a great deal for the Mets.

Look up Middlebrook and Lavarnway.

by Dave In Spain on Dec 23, 2011 1:40 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah it's really not that bad.

It basically separates into a few different deals:
1. A salary swap of Bay for Dice-K
2: Niese for Middlebrook and Lavarnaway
3: Flores for Dubront and J.Reddick/R.Kalish

Looks good. Dice-K ony has one more year at $10.33M left and when healthy doesn’t suck as bad as Bay and doesn’t take up as precious a roster spot since Dice-K can be moved to the pen if Harvey comes up or Santana is healthy.
Looks like a fair return for Niese but I would want a pitcher instead of Middlebrooks
Is unnecessary since we have Kirk who can play RF but Boston would demand it because of the salary taken on in the form of Bay.

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by Ogre39666 on Dec 23, 2011 6:19 PM EST up reply actions

Yes it was meant as a real proposal.

Bay had good years in Boston, and many people have wondered if a return to Boston would help him recover his game. Even if he only improves a little, he´d be better than Reddick/Kalish; if he approaches his former game than he´s a huge upgrade. They´re also looking for reliable and relatively cheap pitching, hence Niese. DuBront is more of a risk for them, even though he has a good arsenal, and since he´s out of options they need to do something with him. Middlebrooks is almost ready—2013 is his target arrival— but they still have a very productive guy at 3B who is a fan favorite and another top-10 prospect at 3B in the lower minors. They also have catching depth at the ML level, so could probably spare Lavarnway. Including a DL´d DiceK, who´s not going to play next year(IIRC) makes it a little better salarywise for Boston, but still results in savings for the NYPennyPinchers.

by Dave In Spain on Dec 23, 2011 11:39 AM EST up reply actions

...and from the Mets perspective:

It moves Bay out, puts Duda in LF where he belongs, provides a stopgap/alternative in RF, provides a potential replacement for DW for 2013, and a potential complementary catcher, all while saving money. The recent Latos and Gonzalez trades shows that teams value young pitching and will give up talent for it. Niese isn´t the equal of those guys, but neither are the prospects we´re including in this idea.

by Dave In Spain on Dec 23, 2011 11:42 AM EST up reply actions

First

Niese is very similar to Gonzalez, I personally think he is better.
Second, valuing young pitchers has been very popular forever in baseball and has gotten even much more overblown coverage the past few years, so you don’t need to explain that here.
Third, what you do need to explain is why we are giving up an awesome young lefty just to get rid of Jason Bay.
Fourth, you don’t explain why we also need to include Flores (or why we would want to).
Fifth, you say –

Even if he only improves a little, he´d be better than Reddick/Kalish;

– why would we want those guys then, instead of just keeping shitty Bay?
Sixth, we are taking on Dice-K and his salary to even out the money situation, so this trade hasn’t helped the Mets free up much, and so, ignoring the Niese/Flores components, it is a lateral move that I don’t see why the Mets would be interested in, nor the Red Sox for that matter.

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by astromets on Dec 23, 2011 12:43 PM EST up reply actions

Okay

1. Could be. But Niece has yet to put it together. I agree to the extent that Gonzalez´ walk rate is scary.
2. Where did I explain valuation of young pitchers? I just made a comment. A little snarky…
3. I wouldn´t characterize Niese as awesome. That said, my primary goal in this deal is to get Middlebrook as a 3B replacement for when they trade DW next year (which I firmly believe will happen, but that’s another post entirely). Moving Bay gives us more flexibility going forward, puts Duda in the right place on the field, and gets rid of Bay who has become a focus of fan discontent (one of many, I know).
4. Flores because Boston needs to get something in the deal too. Like in all trades. If you want to substitute someone else, go ahead. I´m just not that optimistic about Flores, and I´d rather trade him now while he has potential value than wait until he becomes an FMart (and I know I have no basis for that comparison—just a feeling).
5. Because they play RF and provide equal production to Bay now, but could be replaced (or traded) by Nieuwenhuis or Puello if they perform better.
6. DiceK is making about $10 mill next year vs Bay´s $18mil. To the Mets, that´s big money. To the Sox, it might help them stay below the luxury tax threshold, or at least not go too far over. (Just read that DiceK won’t pitch before the AS break, if then. But maybe he could help out at some point. The key point is that his contract expires after the season.)
I appreciate your comments. Everyone values players differently. I think that a team should be open to trading anyone if they can fill several current or future needs in doing so. I see depth at 3B being a huge hole in a year or two.

by Dave In Spain on Dec 23, 2011 1:37 PM EST up reply actions

Maine..

That tells me all I need to know about this proposal.

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by piazza62 on Dec 23, 2011 10:01 AM EST reply actions

I corrected the mistake if you had bothered to look.

by Dave In Spain on Dec 23, 2011 11:19 AM EST up reply actions

At least it's a fanshot

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by Hoyadestroya85 on Dec 23, 2011 12:58 PM EST reply actions 4 recs

Ignoring everything else,

it’d be an interesting roll of the Dice if Dice-K was obtained (see what I did there?). The Red Sox would have to pay part of his salary, but I don’t think they really would mind all that much.Matsuzaka + Ray Ramirez isn’t a good combination, but let’s forget that for a second. He wasn’t as dominating as he was in Japan, but Dice-K gets undervalued a lot. Looking at his contract, he’s already provided the Sox with surplus value, based on WAR/$ conversions.

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by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Dec 23, 2011 1:52 PM EST reply actions

And if it didn´t work out...

he´s a FA after the 2012 season.

by Dave In Spain on Dec 23, 2011 2:02 PM EST up reply actions

Really creative thinking

but I think the dollars don’t match up well enough for the BoSox to take seriously. They’d be trading $10m of Dice-K for $35m of JayBay – not sure Wilmer is enough of a sweetener. It’d free up $6m this year, $16m next year and $3m in 2014 – for that reason alone the Wilpon’s would wet their pants and consider it a huge win. Of course if that $25m helps them keep the club – it might be the worst possible type of deal for us :)

It’s a really interesting deal because it’s all about potential for both teams. Does Niese become a solid 2 or never rise above 3/4 160 ip guy? Do the pitching, catching & 3B prospects amount to anything? Really interesting proposal.

by cpins on Dec 23, 2011 5:42 PM EST reply actions

No thanks

Not sure that Wilmer Flores can´t eventually be what Will Middlebrooks only became in 2011 after several non-descript years in the middle minors.
Also, Doubront probably projects as a setup reliever when all is said & done.
Kalish / Reddick have a ceiling that doesn´t exceed that of Kirk Nieuwenhuis or Lucas Duda – so we already have that.
Sure, Lavarnaway is a nice C prospect who is almost there – but not good enough to justify parting with Niese.

And while I´d love to get rid of Bay, he´s under contract for two more years at 36 million, while Dice-K is set to make – I believe – 22 million over the same span. Red Sox probably do that swap if the cost is neutral and the Mets toss in 14 million. However, that´s also tough with Dice-K likely to miss most of 2011 anyway.

by Doob on Dec 24, 2011 2:36 AM EST reply actions