Getting to Know the New Mets Bullpen
The bullpen might not have been the Mets' lone weakness this season, but it would have been awfully difficult not to notice how bad it was.
Despite a general decrease in offense around the league, the team's relievers ranked 28th in baseball with a 4.33 ERA, 17th with a 3.98 FIP, and 22nd with a 4.03 xFIP. They also ranked 19th in walks per nine innings, giving away bases on balls at a clip of 3.78 per nine innings, a rate which they could not negate with the good-not-great strikeout rate of 7.96 per nine.
Fangraphs totaled the bullpen's wins above replacement at 0.6, ahead of only the lowly bullpens of the Twins and Astros, both of which were negative. The best bullpens this year by the metric, for what it's worth, were the Red Sox at 7.7 and Yankees at 7.0.
There's no question that the bullpen was a weakness, and Sandy Alderson made it clear at the outset of the offseason that he intended to address the issue. Last night, he acquired three new relievers. Frank Francisco and Jon Rauch were signed as free agents, and Ramon Ramirez was one of the two players acquired by the Mets in the trade that sent Angel Pagan to the Giants.
All three pitchers are right-handed and over the age of thirty: Francisco is 32, Ramirez is 30, and Rauch is 33. If yo umissed out on the details, they're as follows: Francisco was signed to a two-year, $12 million contract, Rauch was signed to a one-year, $3.5 million contract, and Ramirez is entering his third and final year of arbitration. The commitments to these pitchers are all very reasonable, with Francisco's two-year deal the longest. All three could easily have trade value this season or, in the case of Francisco, next season.
With age comes an inevitable decline in physical performance, but these three pitchers aren't exactly ancient, even by baseball standards. Let's have a look at their average fastball velocities since 2007.
Francisco clearly throws the hardest, but only Rauch has seen his average fastball dip below 90 mph. That decline is cause for some concern since it's been happening each of the past three seasons, but it does not seem out of the realm of possibility that it will bounce back a bit in 2012.
At his best, Rauch doesn't strike out opposing batters at the same clip as Francisco or Ramirez, but he's kept his walk rates very low for the past several seasons. Let's see how all three pitchers' rates compare to the 2011 Mets.
One of the most frustrating things about watching the bullpen this season, aside from the generally poor results, was its propensity to issue walks. All three of the new pitchers have shown an ability to keep walks at reasonable levels. Since they'll probably pitch about half of the bullpen's innings this year, that rate figures to improve from this season.
In the strikeout department, only Rauch came in lower than this season's bullpen with the lowest rate he's had in years. That adds to the concern about his dip in velocity, but thanks to his above-average control, his success the past few years has not completely relied on his ability to generate strikeouts. While his strikeouts have fluctuated on a yearly basis, it seems his effectiveness depends much more on whether or not he allows home runs. In his best years, he's allowed very few home runs.
Francisco's strikeouts were actually down a bit from his career number this season, but they were still pretty good. Ramirez, on the other hand, struck out batters a little more frequently this season than he has in the past. If both move closer to their career numbers, they'll probably just about even each other out.
Since all three pitchers are right-handed, it might be worth taking a look at whether or not they're effective against left-handed hitters.
Well, all three have pretty typical splits. Their strikeouts are lower and walks higher against left-handed hitters. None of them will be rendered useless against lefties, but there's still obviously a need for Tim Byrdak, who was outstanding against such hitters, in the bullpen.
All in all, the Mets quickly constructed a reasonably-priced bullpen, finalizing all three acquisitions in the course of what seemed like ten minutes on Tuesday night. If the season were to begin tomorrow, the three new pitchers would probably be joined by Byrdak, Bobby Parnell, Manny Acosta, and either D.J. Carrasco of Daniel Ray Herrera in the pen. For a team that struggled pitching in relief this year, that should be a significant step up.
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New Bullpen
Still reminds me of the 2007 pen, you know, the one without Darren Oliver and Chad Bradford.
by Common Knowledge on Dec 8, 2011 10:30 AM EST reply actions
How about another lefty?
To keep Byrdak’s arm from falling off by July. Surely an adequate LOOGY wouldn’t break (what’s left of) the bank.
Daniel Ray Herrera is the other LOOGY
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"He who gets the best players usually wins" - Bobby Bowden
He is indeed left-handed, but is he even adequate?
I lean no, but I suspect he will break camp with the Mets and get the first chance to be LOOGY #2.
by madisonmetsfan on Dec 8, 2011 5:13 PM EST up reply actions
Herrera vLHP for his career:
7.03 K/9, 2.77 BB/9, 0.55 HR/9, .206 AVG, 3.38 FIP, 3.63 xFIP.
I think he’ll be fine, especially as a second LOOGY.
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2012 Amazin' Avenue Offseason Plan: 2nd place
I worry about them having two LOOGYs on the roster.
With two LOOGYs, that leaves a lot of innings for everybody else to cover.
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by Steve Schreiber on Dec 8, 2011 10:58 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Most teams keep two LOOGYs these days.
What bothered me about the splits was Ramirez; with K/9 under 7 and BB/9 above 4 against lefties, Ramirez looks suspiciously ROOGY-like to me, and that might impact the innings more.
I didn't finish my AAOP
but all I wanted to do was put together a Mets bullpen that the opposing teams and fans fear, not salivate at. You need to be able to reliably shut down the other team at the end of the game and last season that was when our pitching was at its worst. Runs by inning (most to least) – 7th (100), 6th (88), 8th (85), 1st (85), 3rd-5th inning (78,80,78), 2nd (68) [9th inning had 61 runs given up, but in 36 fewer innings]. We could really use to shave a lot of runs off of innings 6-8.
Something ‘weird’ is that the Mets second best scoring inning was the first, scoring 91 runs thanks to that leadoff guy who know plays for Miami ticking-time-bombs, but in the second inning we only scored 48 runs. It is just interesting the way things play out from the beginning of the game, lineups don’t usually match up well for scoring in the second
2012 New York Mets, World Series Champions!
yikes, clearly know was suppoed to be now
just imagine if their high bids had actually won over Pujols and CJ too
2012 New York Mets, World Series Champions!
Didn't matter
They can’t sign 5 type A/B guys anyway. Assuming buddyboy didn’t scrap just that single part of the old rules (and there is no evidence to suggest he did) 3 was still the limit. That would go a long way to explaining why both of them jumped on the LAA money so fast after Buehrle signed.
by Stephen Schmidt on Dec 8, 2011 4:38 PM EST up reply actions
We're much improved over our Sept 30 pen but . . .
. . . it’s not quite as dramatic an improvement over our June 30 pen when K-Rod & Izzy were playing key roles. We need to offset the new guys against what we got from guys no longer in the pen. When you do that there’s still improvement but it’s not really a total overhaul..
Lose K-Rod 42.2ip, 9.7/3.38 k/bb9, 0.63 HR/9, 3.34 xfip
Gain Fran-Fran 50.2ip, 9.4/3.2 k/bb9, 1.24 HR/9, 3.36 xfip
We pick up 8 innings of pretty much the same guy. That’s 8 games where we get K-Rod 2011 quality closing instead of the Parnell crapshoot we had last August/September.
Lose Izzy 46.2ip, 8.49/4.63 k/bb9, 1.16 HR/9, 4.36 xfip
Gain Ram-Ram 68.2ip, 8.65/3.41 k/bb9, 0.76 HR/9, 3.47 xfip
This is a nice upgrade. 50% more innings of substantially better performance. But there’s only a marginal increase in K-rates from both these “swaps” – it’s still going to be on some of the hold-overs to pick up their game.
Lose Igarashi 38.2ip 8.4/5.6 k/bb9, 0.47 HR/9, 4.54 xfip
Lose Bucholtz 26ip 9/2.42 k/bb9, 1.76 HR/9, 3.54 xfip
Gain Rauch 52ip 6.23/2.42 k/bb9, 1.9 HR/9, 4.56 xfip
Iggy & Bucholtz gave 12 more innings than Rauch. When you combine their numbers you find they did so with a much higher k rate, much higher walk rate, much lower HR rate & better xfip. This is only an upgrade if Rauch picks up his gain.
by cpins on Dec 8, 2011 10:52 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
This is true, but relievers are a funny thing for analysis
because of small samples — k/9 and bb/9 are babip-influenced, which makes things a bit strange to look at.
Francisco 24.3 %8.3 %
Rodriguez 24.6 % 8.6 %
by robotoverlord on Dec 8, 2011 4:24 PM EST up reply actions
Whoops!
sorry, was actually not going to post this, and pressed post instead of cancel — your point is OK, but what i was going to say really was that 8 innings of Francisco is different because of leverage.
I really don’t get why we went after Rauch though. If someone can explain that to me while Saito and Dotel are probably going to sign for about the same?
by robotoverlord on Dec 8, 2011 4:26 PM EST up reply actions
FWIW, I love your charts. Simple, tasteful, effective.
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The charts about Mets ownership is neither simple, tasteful nor (unfortunately) effective
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