PECOTA Hates The Mets, Loves Johan Santana

by Eric Simon on Feb 16, 2011 11:23 PM EST

Baseball Prospectus has released their new-and-improved PECOTA forecasts including their 2011 depth charts and standings projections. You need a subscription to view the standings and the depth charts, and while I think a BP membership is well worth your money, I'd rather see you spend it on the Amazin' Avenue Annual.

Here's a small subset of the projected standings, specifically the NL East results. The full standings include forecasts for runs scored and allowed plus team slash lines (AVG, OBP, SLG). Anyway, Colin Wyers's MacBook Pro spat out the following:

That's a pretty bleak outlook, but it's based on PECOTA's projections for individual players, and the system doesn't think much of the Mets in general. Except for Johan Santana, of whom PECOTA expects the best half-season of pitching we've ever seen.

WARP is basically BP's take on wins above replacement, and 5.7 WARP in 76 innings is ridiculous. For comparison, here is Cliff Lee's 2011 projection:

Santana is expected to be Lee's equal while pitching roughly a third as many innings. I assume this is a bug in the projection system (or the first signs of computer self-awareness? PECOTA LOVE JOHAN), and in fact all of the WARPs are now blanked out of the team depth charts on BP. To be continued...

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pecota love michael

look at banner michael

HELLO HELLO MR WILPON... BUY THAT MANSION. WE DONT NEED A CONDO.

by kendynamo on Feb 17, 2011 12:08 AM EST reply actions 3 recs

by nmigliore on Feb 17, 2011 12:10 AM EST reply actions

Please use smaller photos

Read this, scroll down to the bit about images.

by Eric Simon on Feb 17, 2011 1:03 AM EST up reply actions

Is it me or is the picture not that big?

by FrancoTAU on Feb 17, 2011 1:23 AM EST up reply actions

Nevermind, you meant size of the file, not the actual size of the picture.

It is slowing down the whole thread.

by FrancoTAU on Feb 17, 2011 1:24 AM EST up reply actions

No

If the photo takes up more than half the height of a 24" monitor then it’s too big.

by Eric Simon on Feb 17, 2011 9:33 AM EST up reply actions

Sorry about that. It doesn’t let me edit it anymore, so feel free to delete it or hide it if its slowing down the topic.

by nmigliore on Feb 17, 2011 9:19 AM EST up reply actions

No biggie.

Just keep it in mind for next time. Definitely continue to post pictures, just try to keep the size in check.

by Eric Simon on Feb 17, 2011 9:35 AM EST up reply actions

Also, please write a subject line on your comments.

It allows people to hide/collapse the comment and pictures, it makes easier to index and search too.

In lobby for: Jaime Cevallos, Zack Lutz, orange unis
The Unwritten Rules of AA

by Michkin on Feb 17, 2011 11:25 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

I'm pretty sure that once the computers begin to love

then the next step is for them to conquer the humans and take over the world.

Well…I guess we had a good run.

Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!

by Steve Schreiber on Feb 17, 2011 12:35 AM EST reply actions

Ken Jennings

Welcomes our new computer overlords

Scott was asked if this win meant that Rex Ryan could now be looked at as an equal of Bill Belichick's as a coach.

"Why not better? Belichick is one Mo Lewis hit from being fired," Scott said. "[Brady] don't come in we might be talking about him on the unemployment line."

by Evan_S on Feb 17, 2011 12:36 AM EST up reply actions

Apparently Johan is in league with them.

All hail Johan and our silicon masters.

by FrancoTAU on Feb 17, 2011 1:26 AM EST up reply actions

But but but

Johan is a Man!

In lobby for: Jaime Cevallos, Zack Lutz, orange unis
The Unwritten Rules of AA

by Michkin on Feb 17, 2011 6:24 AM EST up reply actions

Fail

I suck.

by ritzdeez on Feb 17, 2011 8:12 AM EST up reply actions

Well

I can certainly see (and hope) Lee having a down year. And maybe, just maybe, this surgery Johan had was really the Mets going back in time and switching Johan 2011 with Johan 2004 when he was worth 7.2 WAR from June-October.

Scott was asked if this win meant that Rex Ryan could now be looked at as an equal of Bill Belichick's as a coach.

"Why not better? Belichick is one Mo Lewis hit from being fired," Scott said. "[Brady] don't come in we might be talking about him on the unemployment line."

by Evan_S on Feb 17, 2011 12:35 AM EST reply actions

Wow, so according to PECOTA:

- Jerry, GMJ, Jacobs, Cora, Francoeur, Maine
+ Murphy, Emaus, Capuano, Young, Reyes (full season and ST), Beltran (full season), Davis (full season), Paulino, and Thole (full season)
= 1 more win?

Save Jenrry Mejia!

by Ogre39666 on Feb 17, 2011 2:16 AM EST reply actions

*

1 ~~more~~ win?

Save Jenrry Mejia!

by Ogre39666 on Feb 17, 2011 2:17 AM EST up reply actions

*

1 ~~more~~ win?

Save Jenrry Mejia!

by Ogre39666 on Feb 17, 2011 2:17 AM EST up reply actions

I didn't read into it much

But all the projection systems all giving us more credit on offense than last year, but they’re docking us on pitching for being lucky last year.

by FrancoTAU on Feb 17, 2011 2:20 AM EST up reply actions

-Johan, +Young/Capuano/Gee

I think is the big reason.
PECOTA is underestimating the team, but not by a lot. Around 80-85 wins is where we’ll be

Squeezed to Song and Bendtner and Song and Nasri oh lovely lovely lovely!
-Peter Drury, the one time his commentating has ever been acceptable.

by Aidan Gibson on Feb 17, 2011 6:31 AM EST up reply actions

Forgot about Santana

but still, those other guys were so bad in the limited amount of time they had here that it seems odd to predict the team will only be 1 win better.

Save Jenrry Mejia!

by Ogre39666 on Feb 17, 2011 12:53 PM EST up reply actions

It's because

Johan Santana is ~~the~~ a man.

by ritzdeez on Feb 17, 2011 8:12 AM EST reply actions

That projection doesn't make a lot of sense

The Mets are probably going to be in the .500 range, perhaps even sneaking into the high 80s if a lot of things go right – and that’s with Santana missing half a season. If by some miracle Santana is that awesome, there’s no way the Mets will only be an 80-win team unless the rest of the staff really implodes.

by dcmetsfan on Feb 17, 2011 9:10 AM EST reply actions

I don't think 80 wins is in any way "bleak."

It actually seems a little on the high side to me.

And that’s with a Spring Training optimism tail wind.

by Kepler on Feb 17, 2011 9:22 AM EST reply actions

Baseball Prospectus used to be the hottest SABR site out there

And now it almost seems to lag behind the pack. The fact that they still charge money for the site is amazing.

Still love it though.

by TheBigStapler on Feb 17, 2011 9:41 AM EST reply actions

This is exactly the order I would have picked for the standings.

by fxcarden on Feb 17, 2011 10:04 AM EST reply actions

Standings 2011 NL East

1. Phillies 102-60 Y ask Y
2. Mets 89-73 Beltran/Bay/Young/Capuano/Santana Comeback Players of the Year
3. Braves 87-75 Lowe/Hudson show age, Jurrjens is still and enigma, Chipper sux!
4. Nationals 81-81 Turned the Corner….
5. Marlins 73-89 all assets traded by deadline!!!

by The real Julio from Paterson on Feb 17, 2011 11:02 AM EST reply actions

a few things I noticed in the Mets projections...

1) On offense, PECOTA is particularly pessimistic about Jose Reyes (2.2 WARP), Angel Pagan (1.3) and Ike Davis (1.0). I’ve seen a lot of complaints on the site about PECOTA being pessimistic about offense across the board. We’ll see if they make any adjustments.

2) Luis Castillo is listed as the starting 2B and he drags the team down with a -.9 WARP

3) Luis Hernandez gets 13% of the playing time at shortstop.

4) The pitching projections are very pessimistinc for Pelfrey (1.0), Niese (0.3) and Dickey (1.3). In fact, Chris Young has the highest projected WARP on the staff at 1.8!

5) The bullpen projects to be pretty awful with the exception of K-Rod and Taylor Bucholz. Ollie Perez racks up almost as many innings as Bobby Parnell.

Even with all those issues, I still think 80 wins is a fair projection for this team. The big difference in my view will be that Collins and Alderson will not stick with below-replacement players at 2B and in the pen for very long. Alderson has gone out of his way to build depth at these positions knowing that he might have to tinker with the roster throughout the season. Barring another rash of injuries, I can’t forsee a situation where Luis Castillo, Luis Hernandez and Ruben Tejada get enoug playing time to cost this club nearly 4 wins between them. I think the new management team can add 5 wins to that projection with good roster management and bench usage.

by xnumberoneson on Feb 17, 2011 11:09 AM EST reply actions

Nice digging

Those WTF tidbits explain a lot about the dubious overall projection.

by TheBigStapler on Feb 17, 2011 1:47 PM EST up reply actions

Minor changes will go along way

I think the legacy of the 2011 Mets team if they are sucessful will be that smarter, more motivational managing and a better collection of role players for depth will make a big differerence. I was down on the TC hiring at first, but now he strikes me as EXACTLY what this team needs. Remember this is still a high talent roster for the most part if it is healthy.

by The real Julio from Paterson on Feb 17, 2011 11:46 AM EST reply actions