PECOTA Hates The Mets, Loves Johan Santana

Baseball Prospectus has released their new-and-improved PECOTA forecasts including their 2011 depth charts and standings projections. You need a subscription to view the standings and the depth charts, and while I think a BP membership is well worth your money, I'd rather see you spend it on the Amazin' Avenue Annual.

Here's a small subset of the projected standings, specifically the NL East results. The full standings include forecasts for runs scored and allowed plus team slash lines (AVG, OBP, SLG). Anyway, Colin Wyers's MacBook Pro spat out the following:

2011-pecota-nl-east_medium

That's a pretty bleak outlook, but it's based on PECOTA's projections for individual players, and the system doesn't think much of the Mets in general. Except for Johan Santana, of whom PECOTA expects the best half-season of pitching we've ever seen.

2011-pecota-johan-santana_medium

WARP is basically BP's take on wins above replacement, and 5.7 WARP in 76 innings is ridiculous. For comparison, here is Cliff Lee's 2011 projection:

2011-pecota-cliff-lee_medium

Santana is expected to be Lee's equal while pitching roughly a third as many innings. I assume this is a bug in the projection system (or the first signs of computer self-awareness? PECOTA LOVE JOHAN), and in fact all of the WARPs are now blanked out of the team depth charts on BP. To be continued...

In This Article

Topics
Teams
Players
X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Amazin' Avenue

You must be a member of Amazin' Avenue to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Amazin' Avenue. You should read them.

Join Amazin' Avenue

You must be a member of Amazin' Avenue to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Amazin' Avenue. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker