February Opening Day Roster Projection
Pitchers and position players are all expected to report to Port St. Lucie this weekend, with the exception of visa-delayed Ronny Paulino. Players competing to be a part of the 2011 Mets will soon be together. The next five weeks or so will see various battles for roster spots, specifically on the pitching staff and at second base. With an obvious caveat that anything can happen between now and April 1st, here is an early spring training Opening Day roster projection:
I have semi-serious reservations about Daniel Murphy's ability to play second base. Maybe he'll prove me wrong. Murphy makes the team as a reserve, mostly playing third base and first base. Maybe he wades back into the outfield, where his defensive struggles were blown way out of proportion in 2009. Brad Emaus wins the starting second base job and plays most games there. Luis Castillo is 86'd, while Justin Turner and his remaining options head to the minors.
The Carlos Beltran/Angel Pagan center field decision will be made well before the season opener. If Beltran is healthy and can play an average center field then the job is his.
Mike Nickeas is a placeholder for Ronny Paulino, who must sit out the first eight games of the season due to a PED suspension. Willie Harris makes it over apparent afterthought Nick Evans, who might never again play a big-league game for the Mets. Evans is out of options, meaning he must pass through waivers if he doesn't make the roster and the Mets want to send him to Triple-A Buffalo.
The back end of the rotation is filled by Chris's Capuano and Young. Dillon Gee starts the year in the minors and it would be surprising if he doesn't log at least a few dozen innings for the big club. Injuries and ineffectiveness happen, especially to this crew.
As Chris detailed on Thursday, the bullpen after Frankie, Bobby Parnell and D.J. Carrasco is a question mark. Assuming Taylor Buchholz's arm works, he probably makes it. One of the LOOGYs in camp -- Taylor Tankersley, Tim "The Byrdman" Byrdak, Mike O'Connor -- also has a place, with Tankersley the current pick. Ask me again tomorrow, and you shall find Tank a grave man. At least in regard to my roster projection. Manny Acosta is out of options and Pedro Beato is a Rule 5'er -- pick your poison. Acosta wins out today. Pat Misch hangs on as the long man. The six man bullpen dream is of the pipe variety.
Again, hamstrings get tweaked, trades happen and players inexplicably lose their skills. Nothing is guaranteed this early. But on February 19th, this is a reasonable look at the Opening Day roster.
WAR projection to follow shortly, so stay tuned.
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You guys should turn this into a contest
whoever names all 25 players to break camp wins something. if nobody gets it, next closest.
He begged Jerry not to put him out in left field after failing miserably out there and he has
no throwing arm.A throw in in a trade as his value is zero.
by Putnan Prince on Feb 19, 2011 6:31 PM EST up reply actions
Gee
I think you are right. The 2 veterans get teh nod at the end of ST, but I think we see Gee. I have a hard time believing both Cap and Young pitch healthy all season.
Any task BIG or small, Do it well or not at all
"inexplicably lose their skills"
i wonder if any mets will inexplicably gain some skills.
Also, the devil’s advocate in me likes your slipping in a little Murph outfield revisionism:
PRO: he has the lord on his side and often plays the outfield as though possessed.
CON: it’s not that it can’t be shown he is statistically adequate out there, it’s that when you watch the high profile videos that supposedly negatively bias our interpretations of his abilities out there, you have to worry that he will cripple/maim himself/others out there—Murph’s outfielding is a weapon that needs to be used carefully. Fans could get hurt and there are insurance issues to think about for the Wilpons who need every cent for legal defense fund. Also I worry about potential wear and tear issues for Beltran, who not only would have to chase the balls Murph misses but also has to help the guy up, and could strain something in the process.

I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
by itsmetsforme on Feb 19, 2011 2:47 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Stand up the the nameless!
I love how we all kid about that guy that has no name and how this team continues to not give him a chance but in all seriousness that guy in which I can’t remember his name should make the roster over Willie effin’ Harris or Scott Hairston. He can basically play both their positions while offering the same skill set minus a little bit of speed. I vote for nameless!
I don't know...
I really like Mr. Inconspicuous but I think Harris and Hairston may offer more just based on the fact that they have more OF experience (and are actually average to plus defenders at all three positions). Evans didn’t play any OF in the minors last season and he’s never played CF (not to mention I don’t even know if he’s ever played RF). Add in the fact that Hairston and Harris have had success offensively as bench players and it seems to be an uphill battle for nameless. Evans could be better offensively but at this point, we don’t know and he doesn’t have the defensive versatility necessary.
It’s a shame that the Minaya regime wasted him and his option years in 09 and 10. There was no reason why guys like Tatis, Hessman and numerous others should’ve been getting ab’s over him the last two seasons.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
by Steve Schreiber on Feb 19, 2011 3:17 PM EST up reply actions
His experience in RF is pretty limited.
Just 12 innings over 3 games last year.
"And that's why anybody who invested with Lenny Dykstra should really call that number. Lawyers are standing by."
by BobbyV_Incognito on Feb 19, 2011 3:46 PM EST up reply actions
Hit 'post' too soon.
Wanted to say that it’s not just those guys (Hessman’s had a lot of success in the minors, plus he primarily plays 3rd, which Evans doesn’t). 2009 was particularly egregious: Reed got 177 PA; Sullivan got 157; Fernando got 100, and he was nowhere near ready to reach the majors. In 2008, Marlon Anderson got 151 PA, and put up an OPS+ of 40. Yes, 40. That same year, Trot Nixon started 10 games, got 41 PA, had an OPS+ of 54, and had a career-ending knee injury. Jerry and Omar teamed up to really screw him out of playing time, didn’t they?
"And that's why anybody who invested with Lenny Dykstra should really call that number. Lawyers are standing by."
by BobbyV_Incognito on Feb 19, 2011 3:57 PM EST up reply actions
He is an alternative
To Duda for when Beltran moves on. I would rather he get full time ABs in AAA than five AB a week on the bench, but he out of options, right? Another parting gift from Omar.
"The team is not for sale, in whole or in part. There is no need to sell, there is no reason to sell. There will be no sale."
-Dave Howard
by Dandy Salderson on Feb 19, 2011 6:22 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, last year was his last option year.
@But weren’t those ABs by Smithtown’s own and Jacobs worth it?
"And that's why anybody who invested with Lenny Dykstra should really call that number. Lawyers are standing by."
by BobbyV_Incognito on Feb 19, 2011 6:28 PM EST up reply actions
D'oh!
Supposed to be sarcasm font.
"And that's why anybody who invested with Lenny Dykstra should really call that number. Lawyers are standing by."
by BobbyV_Incognito on Feb 19, 2011 6:28 PM EST up reply actions
But the difference is that Harris can be sent to Buffalo without going through waivers.
Evans can’t. If it turns out Evans can’t help us, then you make the switch, but you have to give Evans the chance.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
That's right...
I forgot Harris is on a minor league deal. I still see them wanting another lefty hitter off the bench, though, considering that Murphy is likely to be the starter at 2B with Emaus on the bench. Offense is offense though and it really shouldn’t matter which side the player bats from, so in that case I’d probably prefer Evans.
Personally, I wish they didn’t give Hairston a guaranteed deal. I’d prefer to have both Harris and Evans on the bench instead.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
by Steve Schreiber on Feb 19, 2011 8:21 PM EST up reply actions
I think Murphy getting the starting job means Harris gets the bench spot
and Evans gets cut. If Murphy is riding the pine as the lefty off the bench than Evans is probably kept.
1st, Harris
is not going to play 2B.
2nd, we don’t know if Murphy will be viable at 2B yet either.
3rd, it does seem like a ST trade could alleviate some of the positional issues.
I think we could match up well with the A’s… Maybe Murphy for Sogard or something of that order or maybe expanded to include Evans and Donaldson or an arm (there is certainly pen surplus in Oak).
But, yeah I would be pissed to see Nicky get punked yet again just to keep 33 yo WIllie Harris when Scott Hairston is around to play CF when needed.
by ThnkGoodnessforHowieRose on Feb 20, 2011 8:57 AM EST up reply actions
Thank the lord
This post tells me that baseball is near. I’m so ready.
This is my last year living in AZ so I’m going to hit ST hard. Lets go mets
by HotChipWillBreakYourLegs on Feb 19, 2011 4:13 PM EST reply actions
Bullpen
Need another lefty in the pen on final 25…
Dickey
Is ambidextrous.
"The team is not for sale, in whole or in part. There is no need to sell, there is no reason to sell. There will be no sale."
-Dave Howard
by Dandy Salderson on Feb 19, 2011 6:23 PM EST up reply actions
Dickey is omnidexterous
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 453 posts (10/03/10)
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Feb 20, 2011 1:04 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Jerrybot does not compute
"The Mets are gonna be amazin'!" - Casey Stengel
"Bounding and astounding!" - Clyde Frazier
AHAHAHA that's hilarious!
Ummmmmm….next question.

Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
by Steve Schreiber on Feb 19, 2011 8:51 PM EST up reply actions
Beato
As I said in the bullpen thread, I’d kind of like to hang onto Beato.
Why not make Misch the LOOGY/longman (if you’re coming in to face a few lefties per game, you should be able to swing a long relief appearance.) Also, wasn’t Beato originally a starter? You figure he could give you mop-up innings in a game the team is getting killed.
Also, KRod is pretty effective against lefties, if I am not mistaken, and this could be a rational to help prevent the “vest.” Collins has already stated he will bring KRod into high leverage situations even if they come up earlier in the game. So, if you limit the bullpen to one LOOGY and said LOOGY comes into the game in the 6th inning to get an out, rendering him unavailable for a LOOGY situation in the 8th, KRod then becomes the logical choice in that spot since he is the RH member of the pen best suited to get a lefty out in a big spot.
Misch doesn't have a superior lefty on lefty number
Wholeheartedly agree about using Beato. If he works, amesome. If not, replacement-level RPs are easy to come by
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 453 posts (10/03/10)
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Feb 19, 2011 9:29 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
that roster has i believe
85 wins in them.
Wild card?

I hate Philadelphia so much.
by the caveman on Feb 19, 2011 5:50 PM EST reply actions 7 recs
BUMPS IT
all the negativitey from ogre is making me want to stab somebody!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I hate Philadelphia so much.
by the caveman on Feb 19, 2011 10:34 PM EST up reply actions
87-90
If EVERYTHING goes the Mets’ way, 90 is tops for them, but 87 is more realistic. This IS an improved team, with a better bench, healthier OFers and SS, improvement at second, and Young and Capuano making up for a 1/2 season of Santana and no Maine or Perez in the rotation.
by Steve OnceBrooklynNowMets on Feb 19, 2011 9:24 PM EST up reply actions
So you think this team is 8 games better than last year's roster?
Maybe if Wright, Reyes, and Beltran play like it’s 2008.
Save Jenrry Mejia!
If they play like it's 2008
I think we’re easily a 87 win team. I mean, Pagan, Bay and Davis would be by far the best supporting cast those three have had since they’ve been together in 2005. I have to imagine those three alone could out perform the amazing 8.3 WAR non- Wright, Reyes and Beltran Mets’ hitters put up in 2008.
Scott was asked if this win meant that Rex Ryan could now be looked at as an equal of Bill Belichick's as a coach.
"Why not better? Belichick is one Mo Lewis hit from being fired," Scott said. "[Brady] don't come in we might be talking about him on the unemployment line."
Absolutely
I’ve been figuring this team is going to win about 85 games based on the assumption that the big three will not put up numbers close to what they did between 06-08. If they did, then they absolutely contend for a Wild Card and even division (because the Phils are not winning as many games as people assume).
I thought they were going undefeated?
"Everything's gonna be awesome." -Ken Oberkfell
"ARSHAVIN IS MAGIC" -Brooks Peck
by Thomas Wachtel on Feb 20, 2011 9:08 PM EST up reply actions
No...
that’s in a couple of years when all of the players from their steroid and PED rampant farm system reach the majors. Remember, the Phillies minor league system is a haven for steroid usage.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
by Steve Schreiber on Feb 20, 2011 10:09 PM EST up reply actions
Beato probably makes, barring a disasterous ST
after all, can the Coupons actually afford the $25K price tag in offering him back?….
I’m sorry, Nick Who?.. Willie Harris and his below Mendoza Line BA and miniscule OBP does not deserve to make it…but he will.
"Fantasy, reality, science Fiction. Which is which? Who can tell?"
Harris with his sub-.200 BABIP
and 10 home runs and superior glove…I’ll take it in a second.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 453 posts (10/03/10)
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Feb 19, 2011 9:31 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
the visa clearnace process is asinine
I work with a lot of people from india, and when they go home for a couple weeks to visit family, it can take anywhere from a week to a couple months to get the visas cleared, and theres really no way a priori of knowing how long it’ll be
Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?
by KeithsMoustache on Feb 19, 2011 8:48 PM EST up reply actions
Are you familiar with how the process of obtaining a visa works?
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 453 posts (10/03/10)
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Feb 19, 2011 9:35 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I know you need over an 800 credit score to get their platinum card but
most Latino countries don’t have credit reports.That’ must be the problem?
by Putnan Prince on Feb 20, 2011 9:34 PM EST up reply actions
They'll still give you a card without a credit history,
they’ll just jack up the interest to something like 59.99%.
"And that's why anybody who invested with Lenny Dykstra should really call that number. Lawyers are standing by."
by BobbyV_Incognito on Feb 20, 2011 11:22 PM EST up reply actions
Touche.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 453 posts (10/03/10)
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Feb 20, 2011 11:46 PM EST up reply actions
Discover and mastercard
are not popular south of the border
I.M. Forme
"When you get yourself into trouble is when you feel you have to do something, and then you get yourself in trouble." --Omar Minaya
by itsmetsforme on Feb 19, 2011 9:43 PM EST up reply actions
Daniel Murphy
How can you put in Brad Emaus as the 2nd baseman when he hasnt hit Major League pitchers yet. Daniel Murphy will be the one, and play 2nd base defensively well.
I wouldn't bet on Murphy playing 2B well
Not a penny.
"The Mets are gonna be amazin'!" - Casey Stengel
"Bounding and astounding!" - Clyde Frazier
i'll take that bet
zero cents says he’s serviceable there.
Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?
by KeithsMoustache on Feb 19, 2011 8:48 PM EST up reply actions
i think thats a given for most people
Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?
by KeithsMoustache on Feb 19, 2011 8:52 PM EST up reply actions
$100 says that Stephen Hawking is better than Uggla in the field
"The Mets are gonna be amazin'!" - Casey Stengel
"Bounding and astounding!" - Clyde Frazier
by Russ on Feb 19, 2011 9:27 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
Oh man....
I woke up in a fowl mood this morning, and this comment completely snapped me out of it.
Rec’d.
Why are chickens so unpopular?
Because they’re always in a fowl mood!
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
by Steve Schreiber on Feb 20, 2011 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
let's not get crazy...
Murphy also doesn’t hit for as much power as Uggla…
by BurleighGrimes on Feb 19, 2011 9:40 PM EST up reply actions
Wow
That’s a bit…optimistic.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 453 posts (10/03/10)
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Feb 20, 2011 1:06 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
to be fair he didn't say if that plus was plus a negative number
so he’s techically correct no matter what the number is. 20 would be fairly idealistic, but if he starts, it’s not completely out of his realm of possibility, more a ceiling for what he’s capable of if he gets a full year and hits to his potential.
Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?
by KeithsMoustache on Feb 20, 2011 2:06 AM EST up reply actions
and that book would be called
The Chronicles of Things That Are Not Going to Happen
I think he will be too.
The only thing I’m worried about is him turning the double play. Beyond that, Castillo has had the range of a postage stamp for years so at the least, that’ll be a wash between the two of them.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
by Steve Schreiber on Feb 19, 2011 8:55 PM EST up reply actions
Serviceable ≠ well
"The Mets are gonna be amazin'!" - Casey Stengel
"Bounding and astounding!" - Clyde Frazier
I'm with you there
Let’s get him actually get some extended playing time there…
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 453 posts (10/03/10)
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Feb 19, 2011 9:34 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
no arguement there
but we haven’t had a good 2nd baseman in years, a serviceable one would be a welcome upgrade.
Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?
by KeithsMoustache on Feb 20, 2011 2:07 AM EST up reply actions
85-87 wins means we're still workin' best-case scenarios goin' into the final week o' the season ...
We could do worse … and probably will.
Best case scenario is probably around 95-100 wins
That is if everyone has a career year.
"The Mets are gonna be amazin'!" - Casey Stengel
"Bounding and astounding!" - Clyde Frazier
Actually, if everyone has a career year
Wright will have to best 8.6 WAR, Beltran 7.5, Reyes 6, Bay 5.6 and Pagan 4.9. So that would be 33.1 WAR from 5 guys. And that doesn’t include Santana’s 7.7 WAR season and K-Rod’s 4.0 WAR 2004.
Scott was asked if this win meant that Rex Ryan could now be looked at as an equal of Bill Belichick's as a coach.
"Why not better? Belichick is one Mo Lewis hit from being fired," Scott said. "[Brady] don't come in we might be talking about him on the unemployment line."
7.7 WAR in about 1/2 a season?
Damn, that’s a lot of no-hitters.
"And that's why anybody who invested with Lenny Dykstra should really call that number. Lawyers are standing by."
by BobbyV_Incognito on Feb 20, 2011 1:11 AM EST up reply actions
I think he'd have to have a .900 OPS too to be able to get that
"Everything's gonna be awesome." -Ken Oberkfell
"ARSHAVIN IS MAGIC" -Brooks Peck
by Thomas Wachtel on Feb 20, 2011 9:12 PM EST up reply actions
I have them around 83-86 wins, not accounting for Johan. Some good fortune and a strong 2nd half from Johan could push them to upper-80’s, sniffing 90+ if things really break right. The talent is there. However, I obviously wouldn’t hold my breath on everything breaking right, but there is a reason they play the games.
I think 80-82 is the most likely scenario
Anything better will be dependent on Wright, Reyes and Beltran having something at least resembling their 2006-2008 seasons.
Scott was asked if this win meant that Rex Ryan could now be looked at as an equal of Bill Belichick's as a coach.
"Why not better? Belichick is one Mo Lewis hit from being fired," Scott said. "[Brady] don't come in we might be talking about him on the unemployment line."
i'm going to guess us at 162 wins, and see where things go from there
just cause i feel like be contrary
Hey, wait! I'm having one of those things. You know? A headache with pictures?
by KeithsMoustache on Feb 20, 2011 2:08 AM EST up reply actions
7 men in the pen?
I think there is a chance there is a 5 man pen and Evans stays put. Misch to AAA and Carrasco as long guy.
by ScottfromPeekskill on Feb 20, 2011 5:53 AM EST reply actions
Not exactly the most scientific of methods but
at least you used numbers to prove your point, so I’ll give you that.
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
by Steve Schreiber on Feb 20, 2011 2:57 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, for real.
I mean, I think he can succeed (at least in some way) at the major league level, but honestly I’d count around a .750 OPS as success. Like if he can repeat 2009, it’d be insanity.
"Everything's gonna be awesome." -Ken Oberkfell
"ARSHAVIN IS MAGIC" -Brooks Peck
by Thomas Wachtel on Feb 20, 2011 9:21 PM EST up reply actions
Winter Ball ≠ Major League Baseball
"The Mets are gonna be amazin'!" - Casey Stengel
"Bounding and astounding!" - Clyde Frazier
and then the pitcher will knock thole home
and reyes will knock the pitcher home, and pagan will knock reyes home, and wright will knock pagan home, and beltran will knock wright home, and bay will knock beltran home, and davis will knock bay home, and murphy will knock davis home, and thole will knock murphy home, and then the pitcher will knock thole home, and reyes will knock the pitcher home, and pagan will knock reyes home, and wright will knock pagan home, and beltran will knock wright home, and bay will knock beltran home, and davis will knock bay home, and murphy will knock davis home, and thole will knock murphy home, and then the pitcher will knock thole home, and reyes will knock the pitcher home, and pagan will knock reyes home, and wright will knock pagan home, and beltran will knock wright home, and bay will knock beltran home, and davis will knock bay home, and murphy will knock davis home, and thole will knock murphy home, and then the pitcher will knock thole home, and reyes will knock the pitcher home, and pagan will knock reyes home, and wright will knock pagan home, and beltran will knock wright home, and bay will knock beltran home, and davis will knock bay home, and murphy will knock davis home, and thole will knock murphy home, and then the pitcher will knock thole home, and reyes will knock the pitcher home, and pagan will knock reyes home, and wright will knock pagan home, and beltran will knock wright home, and bay will knock beltran home, and davis will knock bay home, and murphy will knock davis home, and thole will knock murphy home, and then the pitcher will knock thole home,
by njk237 on Feb 20, 2011 5:36 PM EST up reply actions 9 recs
and then luis castillo will pinch run for the pitcher
and get picked off to end the inning.
by njk237 on Feb 20, 2011 5:38 PM EST up reply actions 8 recs
There is not a player on the Mets that does not have something to prove this year.
This could make the Mets a very dangerous team with new management and possibly a new identity.Failure will determine that this team needs a complete overhaul.Off subject but can anyone imagine what numbers Puholtz would put up in Wrigley Field for the Cubbies
Sorry but
Puholtz? Really?
Chamption of the R.A. Dickey Face contest and "Cromulent Photoshopper Extraordinaire" of Amazin' Avenue!
by Steve Schreiber on Feb 21, 2011 9:19 PM EST up reply actions

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