February WAR Projection

by James Kannengieser on Feb 22, 2011 1:00 AM EST

Let's get right to it -- here is a WAR projection, using the projected roster posted this past weekend as a starting point:

Depending on the replacement level win total used, this looks like a 79-85 win team. It's slightly more optimistic than Vegas and probably pessimistic compared to those expecting a return to elite form for Wright/Reyes/Beltran.

Each of these can be quibbled with but I don't think any are outrageous. Conservatism is king. Well, maybe the bench projection is a little high. Marcel projections and gut instinct are the main forecasting tools. This will be updated much closer to the season, once the roster takes shape. Cross fingers for no concussions or thyroid issues.

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Not seeing Castillo or Ollie on the roster is good enough for me in term of optimism.

"If this doesn't light your fire, men, the pilot light is out."

by Lonborg and champagne, Ollie and vodka on Feb 22, 2011 2:45 AM EST reply actions

Yeah its the little things for me too

My reasons for watching are centered around seeing Beltran’s last victory lap (the greatest CF the Mets have ever had), and possibly Jose’s last year. And the second base competition should be fun.

Castillo’s absence would make me smile, but I have a feeling Ollie might be around.

by Coolpapabell on Feb 22, 2011 3:03 AM EST up reply actions

In the words of a great Mexican philosopher

Lo sospeche desde el principio<\em>

What is sad is that even with an optimistic fan’s fangraph projection, we still don’t sniff the wildcard. They have Johan at 2.8 and Pecota loves him this year. It project him out with better FIP, and ERA than Cliff Lee.

The Fans at Fangraphs has Bay 3.0. An opitimistic outlook from J. Bay and Johan actually give us some hope, but lady luck really hasn’t been blowing on our dice lately, so yeah, this smells about right.

by Coolpapabell on Feb 22, 2011 2:58 AM EST reply actions

I'm a little more optimistic on Bay and Ike. Plus I think Santana gets more innings pitched.

But not enough to make us a contender.

by FrancoTAU on Feb 22, 2011 3:09 AM EST reply actions

Seems conservative on the starters

and optimistic on the reserves. There will probably be a few negatives in there from the bench guys.

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by Kevin H on Feb 22, 2011 7:26 AM EST reply actions

That was one of the first things I noticed.

No negatives.

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by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Feb 22, 2011 12:05 PM EST up reply actions

I think this is probably about right

Though I do expect more from Bay, and maybe another half win from Beltran, Wright and Reyes, if I’m being optimistic.
And Johan could pitch more than 30 innings, at which point we’re looking at around an 83-87 win team

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by Aidan Gibson on Feb 22, 2011 7:54 AM EST reply actions

They are going to use 36 players through the year?

How many were used on average these last few years?

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by Michkin on Feb 22, 2011 8:00 AM EST reply actions

That seems like

a low number to me. Hopefully (please) not many injuries.

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by StorkFan on Feb 22, 2011 10:58 PM EST up reply actions

Projecting 10 more replacement or sub-replacement players seemed like a waste

by James Kannengieser on Feb 23, 2011 8:45 AM EST up reply actions

My joke was lost in translation.

In lobby for: Jaime Cevallos, Zack Lutz, orange unis
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by Michkin on Feb 23, 2011 8:57 AM EST up reply actions

oops

by James Kannengieser on Feb 23, 2011 9:03 AM EST up reply actions

I can see a legitimate run at a wild card

What happens if we get 2 more WAR from each outfielder and Ike? How about 1 more WAR from our catchers, and 1 more from our second basemen? We could get 4 more WAR from our starting rotation, and 1 more from K-Rod. That extra 15 WAR is a lot of “ifs,” but it is possible.

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"Bounding and astounding!" - Clyde Frazier

by Russ on Feb 22, 2011 8:39 AM EST reply actions

excellent, realistic work James

by fxcarden on Feb 22, 2011 9:16 AM EST reply actions

Looks like an 80ish win team based on those numbers (if you use 46 replacement level); that’s not terrible considering some of those projections are on the conservative side; I think guys like Thole, Emaus, and Bay could produce another 1/2 WAR each, at least. If the rotation stays healthy and some things go right, you could probably add on another 1/2 WAR (or more) for everyone, and all of that makes this team closer to an 85ish win team.

by nmigliore on Feb 22, 2011 9:24 AM EST reply actions

I should note when I said ‘everyone’, I meant everyone in the rotation.

by nmigliore on Feb 22, 2011 12:46 PM EST up reply actions

Great value for Santana, there.

by tmu on Feb 22, 2011 11:28 AM EST reply actions

If Wright returns to form and Ike improves they should at least be a 500 team

Plus Beltran should be improved with a full spring training over last year. Dickey at 2.0 is a big drop from last yr he will be 13-10 or so at worse

by Sir Tmac on Feb 22, 2011 11:51 AM EST reply actions

Forgot to add you went from minus -5 Jerry to a plus 1 or 2 Collins

by Sir Tmac on Feb 22, 2011 11:53 AM EST reply actions

The 2011 Mets may be a good case study in how much effect managerial decisions have on win totals

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by Thomas Wachtel on Feb 22, 2011 2:18 PM EST up reply actions

Their Pythag record last year was 81-81.

Their actual record was 79-83.
I suspect Manual was the cause for the some, if not all, of that “underachieving”. So, if I’m correct, Manuel = -2 WAR which seems very low for someone as observably as bad as Jerry. It just might be that managers – even those as bad as Jerry – really don’t have that much impact.

Save Jenrry Mejia!

by Ogre39666 on Feb 22, 2011 8:16 PM EST up reply actions

Looks low:

Thole
Wright
Bay
Dickey/Niese

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!"
Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

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by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Feb 22, 2011 12:08 PM EST reply actions

Agree

Dickey spits on that WAR projection. He’ll be at least 3.

by David G on Feb 22, 2011 12:18 PM EST up reply actions

wait....

Dickey looks low ?.

there’s a pill for that.

by fxcarden on Feb 22, 2011 9:29 PM EST up reply actions

What makes a conservative WAR projection like this insufficient

is that huge surprises happen every year. It’s the activity on the periphery of expectation that defines a season. Great players get injured, mediocre players can have break out seasons, veterans can have comebacks, minor league call ups can provide unexpected wins.

It’s the disappointments and the pleasant surprises that make the season worth following.

I have no complaint about any projection here but there is always reason for optimism if only for the reasons we can’t think of yet.

by TheBigStapler on Feb 22, 2011 12:24 PM EST reply actions

I didn't mean to imply that this WAR projection is useless

In fact, I think it demonstrates that with this baseline projection, all it takes is some good luck for the Mets to contend.

by TheBigStapler on Feb 22, 2011 12:25 PM EST up reply actions

I think it goes without saying that anything can happen

But that’s true of any projection in any field. It doesn’t really make the projection insufficient — it’s just the nature of the exercise.

by James Kannengieser on Feb 22, 2011 1:30 PM EST up reply actions

Aware that you erred on the side of caution

But 30 innings from Santana assumes some kind of major setback, no? You’re estimating he’s going to make something like 5 starts. Three months from throwing plus six weeks for pitching shape/rehab puts him back sometime in July, and I think with that schedule they’re being duly cautious with him to avoid that kind of major setback. I think and hope we can pencil him in for more than 5 starts, hopefully at least 10.

by njk237 on Feb 22, 2011 1:24 PM EST reply actions

I'm really pessimistic about Johan because of the specific injury

Other pitchers who suffered it haven’t rebounded too well. But I can buy penciling him in for more than the ~5 starts I’m predicting.

by James Kannengieser on Feb 22, 2011 1:31 PM EST up reply actions

The only thing that seems really off to me is Pagan

I know he loses some defensive value playing right, but I’d expect his defense to be better there. And I think he’s proven to be an above average hitter. He seems like at least a 3.5 win player to me.

Scott was asked if this win meant that Rex Ryan could now be looked at as an equal of Bill Belichick's as a coach.

"Why not better? Belichick is one Mo Lewis hit from being fired," Scott said. "[Brady] don't come in we might be talking about him on the unemployment line."

by Evan_S on Feb 22, 2011 1:49 PM EST reply actions

Unless you're predictng an injury

Scott was asked if this win meant that Rex Ryan could now be looked at as an equal of Bill Belichick's as a coach.

"Why not better? Belichick is one Mo Lewis hit from being fired," Scott said. "[Brady] don't come in we might be talking about him on the unemployment line."

by Evan_S on Feb 22, 2011 1:50 PM EST up reply actions